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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Certainly a tight core
  2. olafminesaw
    The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development
  3. olafminesaw
    The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd
  4. olafminesaw
    It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.
  5. olafminesaw
    The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall
  6. olafminesaw
    Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look
  7. olafminesaw
    Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS
  8. olafminesaw
    Boy do I love Septanuary
  9. olafminesaw
    Stronger
  10. olafminesaw
    All things considered, a pretty high degree of confidence in a strong system from the EPS.
  11. olafminesaw
    It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.
  12. olafminesaw
    GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time
  13. olafminesaw
    Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola
  14. olafminesaw
    Yuuup. Hooks it west into Florida while growing enormous. Because that makes sense
  15. olafminesaw
    Okay...maybe not. Might just be the smoothest EWRC I've ever seen: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_19E/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html
  16. olafminesaw
    Hot tower!
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems like it's probably peaked and the EWRC should begin to weaken it soon
  18. olafminesaw
    From 38 to 58 in 3 hours. Feels good outside! Jacket in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon kind of weather is fantastic.
  19. olafminesaw
    Even more shocking, average first freeze this century at DCA of November 21st, is only 3 days before that of Tallahassee Fl
  20. olafminesaw
    I suspect equal parts GW, and urban hear Island. Check out this time lapse of development over the past 40 years: https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=36.08865,-79.93213,12.106,latLng&t=3.63&ps=50&bt=19840101&et=20201231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0
  21. olafminesaw
    Going back to 1990, 11 years had October freezes in Greensboro. Of those years, one had December snow, more than a trace (9%), (1" in 1993). 10 years out of 31 had snow more than a trace overall (32%) so years without an October freeze had snowfall 41% of the time and with a freeze 9% of the time. A rather small sample size, but an interesting inverse correlation.
  22. olafminesaw
    1994, A big year for flooding! Alberto dropped 25"+ of rain on parts of Georgia.
  23. olafminesaw
    Thankfully, that still means we probably don't even break 80 degrees. Then the GEFS brings back below normal temps for the end of October.
  24. olafminesaw
    Convection Is being blown away from the center again, seems to be dealing with some pretty significant shear. The NHC forecast of 45 mph pre-landfall, may be too strong.
  25. olafminesaw
    Recon just took off for our new invest. We'll find out in a couple hours whether this is a TC, or a glorified squall line
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