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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.
  2. olafminesaw
    Some notes for the Triad The trends east on the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP seem to be due to a layer of dry air not far above the surface. Could be hard to overcome. Compare this to last night's sounding at GSO when very light snow was falling. Even with dry air working in from the front, the column is fairly well saturated. Finally, you can see this layer of dry air just above the surface already showing up this morning, so the HRRR, may, unfortunately be correct.
  3. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, Brownsville Texas has reported snow the past few hours
  4. olafminesaw
    Odd sounding, dry air all the way up the column. Not sure if this would yield precip, or what
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    Almost reminds me of lake effect snow showers in Pittsburgh. At least you can get decent squalls with that, but it amazes me how any given January day, there's a high chance of seeing light snow showers. Kinda takes the fun out snow.
  7. olafminesaw
    Sounding that does not inspire confidence (although much improved a few hours later). We'll see hours upon hours of flizzard conditions, with a 3-6 hour window for light to moderate accumulations
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    GFS very similar to last run. A light to moderate snowstorm for most of the sub
  10. olafminesaw
    Funny how WAA aloft disappears as soon as you need it most
  11. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks much like the 0z Euro. More suppressed than last run
  12. olafminesaw
    It's still perhaps closer to a good outcome than it appears. Small changes yield big changes in results. We really need that initial northern energy to die out so the energy in Texas can amplify
  13. olafminesaw
    Don't think the NAM will be a good run for NW areas, but we shall see. Seems to be keying in more on the first piece of energy, which doesn't get the job done
  14. olafminesaw
    It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours
  15. olafminesaw
    The snow in WV/Northern VA a separate wave on the back end of the initial frontal passage
  16. olafminesaw
    Better than expected. Many would take this in a heartbeat (although note that the fringes will shrink with time as the forecast gets nailed down)
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east
  18. olafminesaw
    Struggling to take seriously a model that spits out this:
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I feel like the hr 84 NAM tends to be like... "Hey look! A storm!", When sometimes suppression makes more sense
  20. olafminesaw
    Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas
  21. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely worried the phase will just keep getting delayed and it will only be a storm for Wilmington to VA beach
  22. olafminesaw
    Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain
  23. olafminesaw
    Still...not totally caving.
  24. olafminesaw
    Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions
  25. olafminesaw
    I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th
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