Typhoon Tip

oh of course. again...just using the example

The EPS is warm ... and it doesn't appear ( in principle ) to be largely enough differentiated from the 00z GEFs derivative re the combination of the EPO/PNA, either. Both were similarly warm. Here's the EPS' PNA top, EPO bottom

Oh, your fucked up there - high confidence bum tenderizer pattern all the way down to S NJ for that matter. So Maine? - probably could go ahead and change its name to "Shawshank" - ha...actually, I think that film's prison setting was supposed to be in Maine. weird. Anyway, the N stream is active... even the Euro solution. I mean it's cold as a witch's tit right up to the door stop, and then it's 80 in PA being a circumstance resulting from an N/stream that is persisting beyond seasonality across S Canada. The 00z GGEM looks likes it accepted a pay-out by the GFS coup de etat attempt over spring even happening on Earth ( eh hm). Both have some kinda blue bomb implicated some point between D7 and 11 out there. Sell ... Kidding aside, there's a lot of large scaled indicator conflicts right now. The operational GFS derived teleconnnector for the EPO is just about exactly opposite it's own ensemble derived value. It's like +2 SD in the GEFs, vs -2 SD int he GFS. So there's a major internal breakdown there. I'm not sure why-for, but that kind of diametrical anomaly distribution creates a ginormous implication variance for for cold loading across the Canadian shield. The EPS on the other hand, does not have this conflict between itself, and the operational version. Both are +2-ish SD. So less in the wave of breakdown. +2 is warming signal mind you, particularly in the presence of an ongoing -PNA the PNA is in fact negative in the EPS and GEFS, and the operational GFS is neutral-neggie. So this is an odd morass where the operational Euro is a warm outlier relative to the operational GGEM and GFS, but neither the of the latter, having 00z cinemas of endless trough carving and abeyance of any seasonal migration/climate awareness over eastern mid latitude continent have much larger numerical mass field support. I guess I lean warmer given to the weight of the ensemble mean, but since there is an active N/stream and cold presentation in the Euro, this is precarious at best. The Euro could in principle end up more right about a warmer ridge and we get completely tubed up the rectum and it's not even on the weather charts its so discrete. God I love spring in this dumpster land

It's possible - I don't know Mr Shewchuck's established and/or known biases .. no clue, just using this example - that this was a part of a longer sermon. C02 is critical to the existence of life on this planet. Without it ... most species cannot exist. How? That's where the Oxygen we need to live comes from. 02 dependent organisms cannot live without C02 --> 02 fixing mechanisms to continuously resupply the O2. Oxygen breathing/metabolizing organisms evolved after this fixing mechanism arrived on the scene, ~ 2.5 billion yrs ago . C02 was here first, however. Virtually all the O2 in sufficient amount to sustain all this bio-diversity ( ..as well as the oxygen used in/for human forced combustion ) since, required the fixing. It owes its ongoing existence to this background exchange between CO2 and O2. O2 cannot otherwise exist in sufficient mass long enough on its own because of it's reactive volatility - look at how fast iron turns to rust. When raising the mass of CO2 beyond the exchange rate, while maintaining the same amount of incoming energy, the temperature rises with it. When lowering the CO2 with the same constraining factors, the temperature thus falls. This critical fact is what keeps this world in an inhabitable temperature range. For this, it is a climate regulator. So, Mr Shewchuck is right: it enhances the climate. See where I'm going here? If you stop there, that entire message conveys a marvelous denial manipulation. This is just one way in which miss-representing a source and intent, miss-guides a reader. He may have done this deliberately? Or, he may have been a victim of a redacted repost - in which cast that was not his intent. Either way, we end up with his 'enhancing of the climate' leaving off the following key facet and the whole fucking problem: It's the part above where adding more CO2 to a planetary system raises the temperature. If needing it spelled out...when exceeding the background CO2 fixing/exchange rate, we end up with a surplus which inimicably creates a surplus in temperature. That conceptual arithmetic could not be any simpler... And the physics shows 100% causal with zero objective variance. It's amazing how clad it is... God at times even trips over his own creation and has to go, 'shit i can't deny that' it's so clad. The objective physics is that C02 stores energy --> more C02 stores MORE ENERGY. As for those lower educated mouth breather asshole deniers( along with sociopathic leaders that know all this yet don't care or demonstrate any cognitive dissonance to it one way or the other... ), well ... shit - this is probably going to have to end as a slow moving Darwin award.

This week was supposed to be a nasty asshole weather week now since 2 week's worth of every indicator there is that exists to the soon to be defunct NOAA, anyway. Get over it. Better yet ... let's do this: decree that CC doesn't exist and have the NOAA sign it. Yeah yeah. that way, president Dump and his surrounding minion sociopaths and mouth breather enabler trust fund sycophants will then let everyone back in to work and play - because that's apparently all it takes to eliminate the problem, put our collective heads in a proverbial paper bag like that other brilliant warm blooded animal, cats! The pattern is mode appears to rapidly exit next weekend... It's a week. It's just a couple of more losses fucking up everyone's brackets even further, then it's over.

i dunno - you tell us . .hahaha

I don't wish to get into a protracted debate but .., relocation would only be a temporary safety measure, not a tactic that will deliver a long term solution. Plus it's not really an option - realistically - when 90 or whatever iniquitous number it is, percent of the global population lives close to or in the poverty level, within drowning distance of sea-level rise and/or death from failure to maintain arable land/agraculture. Also, we are still inside the planetary atmosphere. No matter where we go, all systems are slaved existentially, and dependent upon it to some degree or the other - yes ...some areas more so than other are directly impacted by a changing climate, one that is outpacing regional adaptation rates ( ...uh, they can't keep up with the speed of the change ). But other areas, indirectly so, yeah they may buy some time. What's humanity going to do not if, but when the denial-enabling industrial bubble closes around 8 and a half billion, eating farting over extended species? - move them all to these tiny enclaves and sing Kumbaya? good luck with that. ...I'm not directing this sermon at you I'm just pissed off today. LOL

Well it’s not happening tomorrow LOL

Climate change will impose a population correction. This is all going to be similar to the story of Noah … ridiculed and pelted while he struggled through it to build the ark. Then the rains came … and came, and came and came. And as the hordes began to drown, they had no boat of their own - and the ark was insufficient to house them Only this time it will ironically be by fire … at least as a metaphor.

Perhaps, but just using it to make a point that we were colder than just about the whole world, scalar anomaly aside - in principle that's true Just an utterly enabling persistence, too ... perfectly designed to enhance disbelief. haha

I would add to this (btw) poignant observation ... that the entire winter has been a fractal suppression event. Fractals appear like fixed structures in nature but given enough time, prove to be randomly re-enforcing patterns. This last winter looking like this, and or a variation that's similar ( I realize this only Jan but it's on my desk top) ...suspiciously qualifies a randomly re-enforcing ordeal.

It's okay - it's not exactly "warm". I guess relative to seasonal normal you'd have to say that, but the sun's been shining for an hour... it's just now 60.

uh where's this coming from. LOL I don't know... that chart's layout, as is, is less likely to even exist in reality - not from this range. But the telecon spread says that cold solutions have some merit through the 30th in general. It may in fact snow again... or just be cold rain the smells like snow - it is late March. Any significant warm departures, while not "im"possible ...they are less favored until after that approximate time. The first week of April may see a rebound the other way.

look at this crazy gradient on the GGEM next weekend

you didn't ask me but thurs night-ish

heh...i guess the GGEM does have a minoring event here ... i just lost it in the shuffle when I was looping the frames because it is so inconsequential.

Oh I'm willing to try... but whenever I see roni curling and black around the crust, I figure it spend 5 minutes too long inside the kiln

Pro, it's depicted during a favorable telecon spread. Con, the GFS has an ongoing aggressive bias with N/stream mechanics. That lends to it being over amplified with that particular wave space as others have also noted. The GGEM has no interest fwiw -

Looks burnt

Today's date means nothing to winter ... or spring for that matter. The reality of nature does not oblige these human invented boundaries. Like dates of time in space...etc. There's really nothing in celestial mechanics (the machinery of the solar system ...), and the implications therefrom for Earth's perspective, that gives physical significance for having an Equinox occur. It's merely a geometrical happenstance that must occur as the Earth rotates with a fixed 23.5 tilted axis (from the vertical), while then endlessly revolving around a relative fixed point in space, the sun. Which calling these aspect fixed is really approximating anyway... but for the sake of discussion. The sun does wobble as it's retinue of planetary gravitational bodies et al, move around it and induce their own pull. There's also changes in the orbits (delta eccentricities) that are small, but non-zero over the many Millennia ... But for the sake of discussion, it's not a violation of reasoning to just assume the sun a fix point in space (relative constant), and then the aspect of Earth's tilted axis then moving around it along an ~ circular pathway, as dependably repeating for billions of years ... At some point along that constant journey around the sun that repeats every full year, the axis of tilt has to pass a point along the way where the 24 hour day ends up evenly split ( "Equi" ) between day and night ("nox") ... = Equinox. That's all it is. The 22nd and the 19th are just as important. That's about it. The winter doesn't stop, nor does spring begin just because there is a system of human invented Laws that must be obeyed by citizens. Otherwise, there would not be a single year since all this was created some 4.5 billion years ago, that didn't end up with some sort of misdemeanor charge if not an arrest for something more criminal. 4.5 billion March 20th guilty of cite-able offenses ....

This may perhaps belong in the pollution thread, but does have a place here as well ... https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-reveal-hidden-sunlight-driven.html

It's been a funny thing where "attribution" is clearly in tact, yet we are perceptively being held at the farthest end of the cold side as is physically possible given the laws of nature. jeez

There's a distant telecon argument for tipping the mass field's into a cooler west, warmer east mid latitudes but not really until after the 28th and maturing through the first week of April. That on the Euro appears to jump the gun by a week or so. The ens mean, from which the telecons are calculated, are also not really showing that sort of warm drama by that time, and the first week of April or even the last couple of days of March are too far out in time for models to really materialize numerical signals. In other words, that's just as much bullshit as that big blue snow monster the model had in that similar time range from on 12z yesterday haha. man

fun rhetoric aside ... it's describing why it seems like the telecon's for AO/NAO hold onto this region like sticky tentacles whence the winter beast has already died - the nerves keep gripping, stealing time, sometimes, quite deep into the warm seasons I notice that about this area of the world within just a few short years of moving here - prooobably didn't help that my walk down the gang plank off the boat was onto the streets of Rockport Massachusetts, which worse than Labradorian ass vomit, that location is a dip-stick thermometer ... jammed allll the way in there But as I grew up and ascended into a Meteorological adult, through the pain and anguish of this cold dumpster landmass ( when it gets merely warm here we think we're actually at the party when we're not ) I began to see the reasons why it is. It's really pretty explainable. I love the winter storm season here. I just have difficulty dealing with this region during Aprils, which may as well include late March and early Mays. I will admit, objectively there can be gem days in that time span. This is all really reserved for those "other" times. When they set in... it just is difficult to either endure or describe just how bad it is to live in it. It's like being married to a abusive spouse, that has the bi-polar swings when they are quite charming until to the cork comes off the proverbial bottle - then it's 'what happened to your eye '( or in our case, 'why can't you sit down' ) - it's not enough to justify the marriage and your trapped.

It's about as close to a 10 out of 10 on that proverbial scale as it can be. It's 55 with zero wind in very pure clean air while the sun creates this vibe of having the warm cocoon