Typhoon Tip

It’s interesting… there’s been a very bright index signal for many days, actually going back a couple of weeks. Very persistent with the whole wholesale index swap of the PNA. In fact, it’s on the order of four whole standard deviations from negative phase to positive in less than a week That’s almost impossible to do without a restoring system Yet we have some operational model runs that are putting out solutions here and there, admittedly, lacking continuity as they seem to evaporate a run later. But when they show up, they’re hyper bombs I mean down into the 960s and stuff at a latitude that seldom realizes pressures that deep My take on it is that there’s a huge huge non-linear signal there and we’re just waiting on the linearity of the daily wave transport in the models to actually come into phase with it. Anything that does just gets that gigantic kickback and that’s why we’re getting these inconsistencies between nothing and extreme. Regardless of what’s really going on there I don’t really agree that there’s no signal and that it shouldn’t be watched - not saying you are. It’s just my two cents.

there's probably going to be some OES enhancement into Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk Co.. possible even as far W as eastern Middlesex/ Worcester/ N RI. Not sure how we can avoid it with 15F air pouring out over the GOM and then turning that back W into eastern zones without embedding those mechanics. CF may coexist with this, too ... making things interesting for sub-meso scale totals. I wouldn't have a problem open the ceiling on this and running 20" totals at this point from what I'm looking at. I would hash out a region like I just said and just label it "max"

Fwiw,

Probably escalates right to warning from a WSW - just circumstantially, we have a track record of increasing confidence with every passing cycle that's bordering on creepy frankly... We're still 6 periods away and this could be a Warning already, really. Shit, we've had 12 hour Warning leads with less confidence then this... But out of deference to admitting this is still an imperfect science, we have to wait... So, we get 36 hours before hand and the NBM super cluster mean is 2.0+" liq equiv falling through a 13 F temperature from a 200 mb thick DGZ that's being moisture fisted by a raping cryo god ... we're making whiteouts in 3 hours sustained at some point or the another if that happens, no problem. Right now 1.5" liq equiv is spread out over 30 hours ... not going to cut it though. Wild card would be if the coastal goes bonkers and we end up with an isol. wind burst pulsing into 17:1 fresh aerated snow pack... hint hint, a snow pack taking flight in other words. That would do it too. In other words, not impossible to get a B out of this but a couple things need to happen.

Thought had crossed my mind, yeah ... heh I think though that this is daily model black out time. I mean everything off the 12z's been pretty well squared away for over 3 hours at this point, comments all made. For me, I'm actually still at work for another half hour and needed the time to like do stuff. haha

Intitially? Not for the same sort of physical causes ... which you intimated. Isentropic snow events tend to be more uniform in character. They are caused by general flow up an elevated frontal slope... Cold in the low levels, with an arriving warmer, potentially psuedo-adiabatic unstable air mass then forced up over the front; eventually through it's unstable altitude/pressure level it starts rising and precipitating... etc. That tends to be more linearly distribute action, such that you get a general rad display... Those meso bands you are thinking of, like that 2020 Dec hyper version, are elevated convergence axis formed from differential mid tropospheric jets moving past and air moving preferentially toward the region of best synoptic forcing to rise over where that is happening. Lots of pricey physical math later, then crossing that up with the aspects above, you can get huge results. In this sense... yeah ... if the latter low does get more mechanically coherent, then some meso banding could set up associated with that. There will be differential jet advection going on associated with that so it could. Just about all defined low pressures have meso structures... You can see them here on this 12z GFS regarding the later big dawg blizzard it has for the 31st

hm... man, relative to ambient surface pressure ( super synoptic foot at the time of this...) these sub 990mb members oblonging the spread back west on the GEFs are an impressive implication ... these are new as of this morning... 06z had more than 00z, but we're adding to I think there's gotta be an upper limit to how much a coastal can take over in terms of lasting/impact. The totality of the backgroung synopsis that all this is embedded in is still quite fast. We could be looking at a regional scoped isentropic thump followed by a 4-6 hour Nor'easter snows and wind into eastern sections.

wtf... I was just describing the differences between the lead isentropic snow not having that, to Wxsniss, and how the 2nd low in some of the guidance was in wait of the the Q-G forcing arriving later - can it be in time to catch that before it leaves, concept. Then is shows up ...kind of.

It's the super computer halting to recompute, utilizing the doctoring/fix by the model operators. ( )

Of course ... ( haha ) come to think about it that's all based upon greed, anyway. LOL I mean, Jebus. The isentropic snows alone are fairly high probability for a successful forecast and we're talking a major snow event from that, already.

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place. And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off... verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd. The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance. However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ? questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window. How much or in time.. The more the consolidation the bigger the 2nd low. Hell ... even 25% doesn't reduce the lead but will add a ton to the 2nd.

heh... I know your kidding but, both those are a reflection of what I am seeing in the moods and possible reasons for the moods, going on in the people around me? yet you've made them about me. HAHAHA.

definitely at least an homage to a CCB stinger upon exit. Granted it's a honey bee compared to a bald faced hornet's jabber but it's there nonetheless. gosh for winter weather goobers we are sitting in a fun time. relish in this folks... it's been years, YEARS, since we could be sitting at 90 hour before a major, with 12 model cycles of possible upshot solutions to dose our dopa drips hahaha

It seems ( to me ) that we're in 'looking for what can go wrong' mode, which is what happens when we are pretty much at the ceiling of the given event's emergence in the guidance. It appears we are getting pretty consistent mean between 11 and 14" out of all this stuff, and so it's negotiating details to add a couple or take a couple away. We keep coming back to that range

I'm with Brian on that ... I wasn't or hadn't had a chance rather to look at those specific mid level mechanisms but if we're SE of a 700 mb closed circulation envelopes, then even if we do get a coastal going like that 990mb ( which is just getting respectable actually - ) there will be vestiges and interference preventing impacts from that latter.. Course, we could lose some of that in future guidance ... just speaking to what we see at this time. Also, not to be contrary to the first point, still ...we don't need to ton of support above 700 mb to generate CCB snow...that's kind of wild card there. I think Will might have just hinted at this but if there's a growth region subtended below the 700 where there is a generating 850 to 925 E anomaly/moisture insert... there can be some accumulating snow production falling in that shallower layer.

There's definitely something more than mere hints at this converting to a coastal ... kind of a race as the whole of it is alleviating the isentropic wall. when that starts to attenuate, there's still a bit of uncertainty ( in my mind) as to the coherence of a actual low with CCB genesis... I'm sure you're aware of this and weren't intending to go into the granularity of those ending innings of this system, but even this ICON, which appeared to be on whole moving faster, still manages to put a 4 to 6 hour CCB head into eastern regions. It's not clearly like that in all guidance, though they've all suggested so at one time or the other.

mm, I see that as increasing the depth of the DGZ while also suppressing it S... by small measures in each facet - I'm not talking about a wholesale correction here. But it's heavier snow resulting along a narrower axis somewhat S of ..whatever it was before. but we're just musing theoretic here based on the one model run

Me too I think we've all had a run-in with that perfect someone now escaped over their rear horizon. ... perhaps never truly forgotten. The what-might-have-been if were not for the saboteur within. They contrive these torpedo designes to sink the relationship, manifesting all these frustrating plausibility's that we have to consider or else we're dismissive - see how they trap you? But, these implosion fears, they're far less likely true. So it's all but impossible trying to give them respect. Relationship, over. Brilliant ghosts. These people have fear of intimacy with this storm! HAHAHA

haha. well, if the shoe fits -

It's a common psycho-babble defense mechanism. For some ... being in a good state actually causes them discomfort - so they manifest to appease that.

Okay... for the first time I'm impressed by the model solutions overnight. 1 to 1.5' (that's feet) of snow "precipitating" out of a modeling consensus that frankly ... could be underdone considering the feeding circumstances into this whole thing. This is running an anomalously rich subtropical sourced air up underneath an impressive if not historically cold air mass intrusion currently just entering the NP ... This air mass will continue to load into everywhere N of roughly Houston Texas to Va Beach - obviously colder N within that immense region. Meanwhile, said starkly opposing air mass is bulging back N, or trying to (...it's going over top!) from southern TX across the Gulf interface with the continent down there. As an aside, this really looks like a battle between well established and sufficiently time laged MJO Phase 6 modulation, which is trying to realize it's correlated temperature/moisture bias, which is rich in the OV/TN region; where incongruously ...we find said mammoth cold invasion setting up. Thus, an immense conflict has emerged(ing) at both larger teleconnection scaled correlations, as well as what is physically being actually observed. And here I've been focused on the 29-02 dates ( and still am interested in that range, btw ). I kind of missed this I think. If I'm being totally honest. I see this now as a planetary event. What I mean by that, it is rooted in all these super structures ... modulations that have come into larger scaled conflict set to take place. This is a WHOPPER of a correction event. Ginormous opposing planetary signals set to resolve their differences, impacting half the country to do it. About the only con to this happening as such at this point ... we have to keep in mind that everything described/analyzed above is based upon the virtual plot/movie history of the guidance. They could be telling the wrong story... I see that as less likely, tho - shy of moderating impacts in specific areas and back yards, when the whole of thing is manifested out of these root observations about the state of the larger environment, that's a clue to deterministic comfort when that is the case. Something has to correct this mess, we have model solutions capable of doing it. There's not much else we can do.

yup ... nothing's gonna to happen here

Just to reiterate ... this is a low-grade cyclone and associated parametrics, but having a disproportionately larger ( much larger relative to climo on such cyclones - ) QPF potential due to maximizing PWAT anomalous air mass transported up and over cold/isentropic burst. I don't have a lot of personal faith in the idea of this thing having a lag back low pressure and active CCB - or if so...would that even be strong enough to be appreciably larger than what happens from the front loaded IB. As it looks now ( as in at this time) I'd go with .7 .. .9 if asked, and it's probably pretty evenly distributed ... or more so than the banding that happens from deeper cyclonic mechanics

wow, so other institutions saw this happening too. awesome

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut, we did a tongue-in-cheek study when I was an undergrad and found that it was true! A corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place. not kidding. Someone would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab to announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted.