Typhoon Tip

This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago. There's a pretty clear leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement: The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm. There's no attempt at subversion of CC into this idea ... it is what it is whether that's a part, or not. Anyway, even if that's just 40 ... 30% increased in circumstances, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency storm numbers lost to discord, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down.

ah.. sorry. I zone out usually after dark - unless there's something really going on

Kind of with Scott on the mid monther ... for the time being, anyway. I'm open to changes at 7+ days of course, but ugly overnight. I didn't like 00z GEFs or the EPS regarding that period. They were not representative of a type of system we'd expect to see emerging - better hints in prior cycles have regressed to ...something else. This is all given to the blah blah PNA gobble-dee goop. Both look like some kind of polar boundary with maybe a clipper on it? not very clear what that is... but the passage is NW-SE and not including much of any coherency to a coastal. Basically unremarkable with what they do illustrate. Meanwhile, the operational GFS' 0z and slightly less so, 06z kind of does, but they just look weird. So does the GGEM...

Hi launch pad this morning, relative to season

Interesting changes and this 0ZNAM Unfortunately, it’s in that 72+ hour range …NAM is not very good but it’s definitely a colder solution

Lol Jesus guys…let it marinate a little bit

Looking more and more like the Miami rule's behaving for the 15th but it's the western ridge that's that's a problem. Too far W ... It's sort causing the trough components to dangle through the Lake/OV instead of digging. So we end up with the b-c axis with paltry wave running up along it instead of the bigger woofer. It may actually work out that way - which would probably drive winter storm enthusiasts to something barely restraining apoplexy ... haha. I mean with all do empathy ... you may never see 6" of wind whipping NEster again, huh That PNA ridge was biased west much of last winter. interesting anyway.

Trick in that solution will be whether there's a pulse of sufficiently low enough DPs loading into NYS-VT-NH ... even if we can get that down to say ALB-EEN-MHT that may be close enough. There's a front coming through around 00z Saturday and between 3- 9Z overnight there's CAA albeit not aggressive. I wouldn't normally comment on a marginal set up like that for ZR, just because it's a fragile set up and it's got 60 to 72 hours to go... however, there's a distinct rising PP across upstate NY-ME and it's nosing around the terrain and bowing the isobars into a dammed look...That means like today, a sneaky ageo flow is susceptible of getting going - if/when coming out of even a -1C DP source that's good for ice at least down to the border towns. edit I see NAM cute pink paint is indeed into interior even down here. CNE obviously higher odds

Hey Don - you might find this interesting ... https://phys.org/news/2026-01-north-pacific-winter-storm-tracks.html ...statements in there that speak pretty specifically relating to the increasing temperature tendencies/'why' amid the Southwestern regions of the conus.

https://phys.org/news/2026-01-north-pacific-winter-storm-tracks.html "The findings add to a series of Chemke's previous studies pointing to a troubling pattern: Earth's storm tracks are changing rapidly, and climate models don't always account for that." No shit ... i missed my calling.

HAHA ... man, the ICON is setting up just a delicious bi-polar American WX Forum experience for the 15th, huh

yeah...it's not hugely obvious I guess. But, I also don't remember the daily charts looking that ideal, either. I recall distinctly that it was S of that some of the time. Also, I'm kinda more interested in the "stuck resonance" behavior too. It was really something. Other notable was how the MJO was squashed out of existence that whole time too because the two negatively interfered and the N. Pac was daddy. Tentative proof of that ... the resonance decays and summarily the RMM has/is released/ing the beast.

I tact this onto to the end of that missive as "plausible" explanation. As an afterthought ... might look at the W Pacific warm eddy ... the Pacific resonant pattern of the first 1/3 of winter was suspiciously well placed downstream of that feature, where physics would want an atmospheric response. Just sayn' The Pac warm eddy is new to history. This resonant thing was also ... "new ish" to history. And geo-physically fits in a spatial distribution sense of it. It's an idea

The point - poorly conveyed by me .. heh - is that the typically causality for -WPO and -EPO responses were not likely what drove that N. Pacific resonant pattern. Therefore, it is not likely that anyone really saw that coming. The silly "tsking" is not meant to trigger you. It's just that assessing what's going on without qualitative analysis is inherently risky in general.

To me it was all more than that. ...the entire hemispheric layout was not anticipated. That's what it means to be 'highly anomalous' but semantics aside. That was not a canonical WPO ... it was a freak scenario that weighted the WPO and EPO ( oscillatory) down just because the ridge meandered some over a 4 week period, but that whole circumstance was something else. Proper -WPOs are situated closer to the Siberia/NW Pacific. The EPO is closer to Alaska... That thing was centered over the dateline, slightly S of WPO latitudes, but was just enormous enough to pull on the index domains Numerology of the indexes, without qualitative analysis? tsk tsk As an afterthought ... might look at the W Pacific warm eddy ... the Pacific resonant pattern of the first 1/3 of winter was suspiciously well placed downstream of that feature, where physics would want an atmospheric response. Just sayn'

Whatever happens with the temperatures tomorrow and Friday, Saturday looks suspect to me. That looks like meso-low/'tuck' times. We are at the eastern end of a warm boundary that is pinned along or S of L.I., with +D(PP) moving across QUE, with damming already nosing down to the Pike like that? good luck. Might even end up being another ZR issue with that.

Actually the MET was 50 at FIT for tomorrow off the 00z output. I'm surprised a MOS product was that high.

I think it's a temperature nerd's first day - call it a "warm up" for the impending MOS bust season. lol

yeah, I'm just referencing the NAM RH levels. Haven't looked at other guidance, but 18z had < 50% over Logan, which is typically sun soaked. It may be cloudier western areas, sooner. Plus, it's the NAM for period 4

wow. Not intending to troll the timing here but ... I was just looking at the 12z NAM grid. If those numbers are right for Friday, we're going above MOS and probably human interpretation on that day. It's too early in the returning insolation to expect much assist, but +8C at 900 mb would send the temperature to 72F if this were mid February. Don't know about January 9th... proooobably not. Gossamer snow pack will prevent some recovery, too. If that NAM thermal profile is right, ton of midday sun and light WSW wind will be interesting for the temperature nerds like me.

Yeah, that's the unfortunate Miller A trade off... the pattern foot doesn't come with that. The 50/50 thing is the Miller B or variant thereof. It's need for it circulates cold into the antecedent environment ...typically waiting to the last second to then scoot out of the way and make room for the coastal coming. Miller A's tend to be progressive. Heck they're really more like needle thread storms, their just arriving from a steeper azimuth. The difference is, since they are coming from a huge heat and moisture source, they tend to just be bigger and by default affecting a larger area. But they do tend to be progressive for lacking blocking vortex in the Maritime of Canada.

Yeah, tomorrow has a soupcon of being a nape day ... It's hard to do that in January, because the sun's just too darn feeble. Need to breach the solar transition entry times ( first week of Feb) and then the affect is much more noticeable. Otherwise, feeble west wind at +5C in the 980 MB level on the NAM grid, with < 30% RH in the cloud column is going to feel pretty amazing to those that don't suffer the negative SAD form of that disorder. haha. Anyway acclimation/seasonal relativity is going to make that 48F stroll across parking lots, while the sun's feeble warmth is still warm nonetheless, feel even warmer and more invigorating.

this would have been an "ice storm" opportunity if the fall rates were more - tho could argue the length of the event is challenged, too. There's an established drain/ageo flow ongoing that is just about perfectly balanced against melt layer overrunning aloft. We're glazed to perhaps .1" ... shrub and twigs starting to do that day glow look. Car windows are mottled and there's icicles forming along the edge of the awnings. But the puddles in the salted streets are barely patterning rings. Rad is a bit more robust coming, moving in from the west but it may not last long.

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system. It's Miller A. The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything. The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there. The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either. The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be. Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances. The take away is that the signal is still there.

Not sure what the semantic registry is on your side, but going from not a positive PNA to a positive PNA is a regime change Now, if you’re talking about whether it is going to provide this that or the other thing …who knows The other thing is that PNA may not last that long because there will be another regime chain shortly thereafter- if the extended range multi ensemble sourced indicators play out the way they look now. We’ll go to a negative EPO “regime“