Typhoon Tip

Relative to all climate zones there's a tendency in the guidance, et al, to back off the "doom" as you say. Certainly CT ( 00z GFS ) does the best - just by virtue of where they are. Case in point, they flip glorious on Thur/Fri for example as a stuck warm/stationary boundary slices from Watertown-ish NY-like to Providenceness, Rhode Islage. Just quantificaiton of that snap shot is probably 80 at HFD and 55 with a feeble Labradorian prostate drip coming into Logan. Not the full-on cold dildo flogging of previous runs. Can and Euro leave something to be desired, but they are also less cold in total qualitative.

58 with very little wind under August 23rd sun ( this weekend) is going be just fine for me, anyway. Sunday sucks tho. Nasty cold front with a 36 hour -5 anomaly behind it...I guess we need something to keep it real tho.

I know what you're getting at but 65/44 ( say ..) is still a very significant warm anomaly. (as an aside, also a handsome CC piggy. haha)

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS. I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April. Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either. The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion. The Canadian being the most happy. The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

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The overall mean thicknesses are not quite as cold, either. It's like what Jerry was suggesting, more like reality April. But D8/9 Euro is above normal on this run, too ... It's just more like convoluted spring typology. Bowling season

hmm I really don't think the models know what to do later next week. It seems a cool down is inevitable but these 12z runs are all over the place with domain features compared to previous.

ESE wind at 1K high ORH AP and it's about to tap 80 F .... In mid April

Look at all this incredible warm summeriness on the extended Euro!

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Same. Strata lost the battle very fast about 1/2 hour ago. Now a naked BD air mass ... Pretty clear boundary still demarcates around Worcester ...but nearing 70 we're probably going to see the boundary bounce N some amount as it homogenizes on both sides. Still 3kts of E

Exceptional temp gradient. 55 to 80 between Ayer and SW Worcester CO I'm thinking looking at satellite like the boundary is attempting to wash out so we'll see

Suns out in downtown Boston before us. Rock on! The wind on 1K high Worcester air port needs to go SW ... that would tell us there's frontal retreat. Otherwise, even if the sun comes out we'll hang up at 62 bone-in-ass watching it be 80 up to Sturbridge.

Clearing is actively working N-E ...question for me is whether there's a temp burst as that CT runs over as the sun is shining thru. interesting

nice to see that...we'll see how it works out. There's quite a bit of clearing sweeping up across the area at mid and u/a levels according to high res vis loop this hour. As that expands over this sludge it will be interesting to see how the mid April sun goes to war over top. The day glow is also already elevating over the last 10 min here so my est for 11 am might not be so bad.

Satellite isn't exactly arguing you're going to get a better day out of this shit roll

That air mass arrived yesterday afternoon into E-NE zones, and it then got rained into overnight. That left a saturated cold slab that probably only 1000 ft elevation but is harder to mix out because it take more solar energy/thermal input to do it.

Yeah ..I get it. Generally pissy mood this morning. The scrotum arc typical to morning satellite the morning after BDs is already starting to retreat from the W and S, shrinkage - haha. We'll probably bust out at 11 and see a temp jump with wind going SW.

49/BR inside the rectum of a poorly analyzed BD. gorgeous ! Zero air movement tho, so the mechanics of this are weak. It could be overcome but the sun has to be strong

Not an early foliage year around here in general fwiw. Just got lawn/field greening these last 4 days, along with daffodils and violates. Forsythias are out in full, and the Lilac buds splt with infant bouquets and tiny leaves but that's a long way to go. Otherwise, large stems are still post apocalyptic

The warmth getting gypped is down right unfair. Next week's -NAO is a natural progression down wind and time of warm period in late winter and early spring. We're definitely getting that hangover but the shit unfairness is that we're not getting much of a party of this warm up, first.

As opposed to this? I'll take it Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky. What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

I can't find climate-specific data regarding the accuracy of modeled -NAO(+NAO) index values, at different time ranges... Then considering seasons? no chance. Good luck trying to find what no one has apparently ever sicced a red-eyed grad student on because it doesn't apparently exist. That said, I'm personally certain that -NAOs modeled beyond D7 have a deplorably bad verification score, where as ...those scheduled to manifest between D3 and 6 ( mid range) are the ones that most often materialize. This -NAO in the guidance since last week is a nice candidate to test Charlie Browning with that particular index, because it's been out there in the extended index prog a lot longer than 7 days. Thing is... I wouldn't be shocked if there is at least some sort of -NAO observed down wind and time of this warm anomaly over the eastern mid latitude continent. That's a correlation actually that I have personally seen. It doesn't say anything to magnitude or west or eastern limb. But warms up --> cools down/-NAO is progression. The 12z Euro is attempting to abandon the -NAO by D8/9 now ...and it reminds of the fragility in modeling that index is all. It could go either way.

CC exerting itself in insidious ways. Like, April 15, backdoor front comes through ... and it cools us back down to above average instead of insanely above average.

It's impressive watching the hi res visible sat loop at how fast the cloud field is moving W-E ...even the CU field, and then to have this BD thing be so wildly decouple from that blithely wobbling west through the state like that.