Typhoon Tip

Amazing how quickly this transformed ... instant deep winter outside 4.5" mod snw.

We may end up in a local jackpot up here along rt 2

It's about a Jan 10 climo shot

Why are there so many "over performer" statements.

Ah nah. Return rate for Novie events > nominal is in the neighborhood 15 yrs but ... we just had one n of the pike in 2014 That said it's rare to get pan wide 6" 2-4" in coastal towns with oceanic ssts lingering 50 F is definitely NOT like any Novie used to do Probably top 5 percentile in those locales

25/24 hvy snw. 1/4. Mi Vis. Uniform tiny aggregates. 1.25"

funny you mention that... i was just looking at the radar and thinking how painfully slowly it was advancing. heh

seems like we repeat this a lot. Event after event after event... Clear indicators in the models... overthink kicks in, suddenly ..we know more than our own experience and we're down to Advisories clear to almost Glenn Falls NY with DPs of 10 F and 40 of units of UVM riding over top... Sometimes I wonder if we just invent reasons to doubt ... and sound intelligent while doing so, too. So the Euro comes in late second with a sleet bomb and ...well, whatever. I think it's a relative win still going with warning for general impact - Euro can hiccup too. But 5.5" of snow then .5" sleet then.1" of icing then drizzle at a balmy 33 F is a nightmare to a non acclimated public so ...it's better in the PR of the thing.

Based upon the American cluster there's an impressively large signal out there nestled somewhere in the last seven days of the month. Not clear if it comes in a pattern verification, or ...that plus specific large event(s) and obviously..there's no way for that confidence..However, that is a rich fertility in there and for cold and stormy times. This is/was hinted but it's increased in coherency significantly as of recent indexing ... convergence is indicated -

That description for that particular year is like ... "... that Pats season in 2007... won a few games..."

I suspect there's a tendency to want to go conservative ...for no other reason, it's only mid November. I get that. But, also I think seeing NWS' overnight efforts to trim down toward Advisory (imho) scope on this, is both satisfying that underpinning insecurity in this thing, but is also ...risky. I'm gonna be interested in seeing how the chips fall on this one. ... They have cleared west of ALB of any warning; however, enough uncertainty and arguments toward a bigger impact exist toward the Berk's and beyond (notwithstanding, the first and likely non-acclimated event ..) I wonder if there some over-think going on there. We'll see. Ultimately, an Advisory with pop is probably not a big deal different than a lazy warning so it's meaningless... but I found it interesting to see the products painted that way this morning. mm

22/10 here in Ayer Plenty cold… Pay attention to the dewpoints

models may be reeling a little in late innings here as the weight of this nascent cold air gets more physically presented in the grids... The NAM is subtly backed ENE over E (previous cycles(s) ) at Logon during max QPF/ UVM and seeing the Euro's last two cycles tick chillier I don't believe are coincidences. I've been on the colder train on this from the beginning ...just not sure how far that goes. One thing to consider... should that be the case above... we're going to get precariously close to tipping the ageo into an impenetrable wall actually and then we have enhancing meso scale studies with CF to contend with and score maxes [maybe] where none thought so. Like ORH ...etc.

depends where the 700 mb center or equivalent center goes. if the axis of it stays south of the Pike it's not likely to warm tongue much farther N of there... I might be a little concerned with flashing where it snows --> rain then ends as partial clearing in the evening Friday night.

Depends where... For interior and even some coastal zones up here in SNE we've had snowy Decs over the last 10 years. But perhaps if we are not getting them every year, that qualifies?

yeah ...good luck with the Euro being wrong two days before an event ... heh

yeah, agreed... I was just commenting 'in principle' re back whence. But that year ...I distinctly recall having a feeling it was no turning back...I got that same vibe. Then, I look at these present index progs descending the AO to -3 SD along with a -2 and change NAO ...and forgetting their down there... you know? interesting. That year was ENSO neutral (homage to our other conversation)... I think? I can find that -

I was just thinking. It was about this timing in Novie 1995 that the first latitude dependent mix bag event laid down about 3-5" with sleet crusted along Rt poop. That marked the end of bear ground until the holocaust thaw of late January 1996.. But, that 1995 late autumn was the last time I recall (oh I'm sure there's been others..) a bona fide early, hard neggie NAO to close out a Novie - and it stuck through Dec...seemingly returning there as a baseline. Not sure what the other indices were doing that year/season ...PNA/EPO... N. Pac etc.. but I recall the NAO was neutral negative oscillator which probably did help along correction event repetition.

Depends how much one drinks before looking at the model

wow ... you really nailed it down! heh

i know I've mentioned Dec 2005 as at least a partial analog (...mainly because of the 500 mb wave translation..) but, this layout of ptype cartoons are starting to remind me of that Thanks Giggety storm of two years ago ... cut power for a few places in the interior. or was that 4 years ago ? ...damn

Not entirely sure... CPC provides a lot of on-line 101 level essay and explanation text for their various Q&A and methods ...etc... They sort of tip their hat to 'not really normalizing for the hockey-sticking' (so to speak), however: What is the relationship between El Ni�o/La Ni�a and global warming? The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Ni�o's because of global warming? Will they be more intense? These are questions facing the science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate variability from any trends due to man's activities. If we cannot sort out what the natural variability does, then we cannot identify the "fingerprint" of global warming. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural variability and global warming. At this time we cannot preclude the possibility of links but it is too early to say there is a definite link. c/o: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#RELATIONSHIP Their exact data ranges may be buried in those links somewhere .. but, climate intervals are broken into different multi-decadal lengths for different uses. Edit, might be useful to note that even since 1980...the lion's share of mass occurred in the latter half of that nearly 40 year span

nice Novie gem here... We're not going to get a cut-and-dry event (that often... ) in November. It's good to get this and gin up the analytics engine for what I feel is going to be an abnormally active winter. We're gonna need it. But, we run risk of over thinking the models - or thinking we can. Sometimes hunches and intuition and experience team up and score personal/collective coups...sometimes, nah so much. The NAM FOUS QPF is over an inch at Logan and as I outlined the linear mean of the temperature, at respective levels, between there and ALB, most of that falls frozen/freezing prior to any tale ending mist. That should be warning ... if for no other reason... shear PR and public prep being at a premium at this time of year. So I dunno... but this is sure fun!

actually 'mild' might be too strong...

yup, the backside of this thing is actually not too terribly cold... so, it may bounce mild and drippy ... Classic cold advection offsetting during solar nadir time of year out there. We set stage... Many Davis' are parked at 32 with brilliant albeit sloped oblique sun. The advection terms can control the diurnal temperature variation now through about mid or end of Feb.