Typhoon Tip

I looked around ... I couldn't find a thread re this guy - if anyone wants to merge by all means. sorry

Probably a bit tedious for some to dissect the anatomy of this one buuut... The "main event" is overnight.. fwiw - The mid-level features are presently centered near PHL of NW Maryland ... As they trundle ENE and S of LI .. there may be some fill ins of reflectivity and if one of Scott's more important bands get going it will probably then, when those 500 and 700 mb surface are passing just to our S and concomitant cyclogen gets more cohesive.

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase. To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted. The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter. Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years. It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO. Why? Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game. Without it, wind doesn't blow. It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind. Big gradient = big wind. That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that "no where" means, less resultant forcing. It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

12z NAM/grid numbers even more impressive... BOS//754439 -2119 220716 48059904 LGA//968032 09204 170518 49030004 06000787318 05714 170720 47050101 06031978736 06401 120518 47020004 12030989353 12913 130619 47029802 12028989336 11206 090117 44010000 18101978347 -7409 050227 45000100 18022967436 01611 073416 44010098 24015978547 -6012 033418 43000099 That's approching 1.5" of QPF now for Logan... The temperature profile looks colder overall during the VV/QPF intervals... but the first .3" appears to be noodles and sleet mixed... That 2nd interval though...up over an inch in what essentially amounts to an isothermal 0C profile from 980 to 800 mbs ...(and I checked and there's no elevated warm layer) ... the only thing stopping that from being a significant snow storm ...other than it being the NAM that is... (ha!) would have to come down to nuances in the growth region of the soundings... but I don't believe that would be the case with the structural evolution of this thing. It's even got LGA with a half inch in an isothermal snow profile there on the right. Could all be the NAM being the NAM but again...the 00z Euro looked NAM like so we'll see...

The 06z NAM may be a little pricey with QPF but it does bring up over 1.0" liq equiv to Logan ending Monday morning. I haven't looked at any specific sounding products that are based on the NAM inputs, but just examining the triangulum between BOS-LGA-ALB suggests that there is a snow profile ~ mid latitude of said region going N ... and observing p-type rad products that seems to be more or less setting up with early event behavior. I was impressed ...as far as one could be for this "disrespected system" in the 00z Euro. It shows a quintessential 500 mb track ... taking a quasi-closed surface from just east of the Del Marva passing E of Cape Cod early tomorrow. That is actually a climo -favored track for frontogen/banding along the N/NW arc, and given to the "TROWAL" like look ... these free open-ware web products sort of give at least a conceptual nod to the NAM having a .6"+ single interval on the FRH grid (Logan). Both the NAM and the Euro suggest marginal atmosphere is modulating down, not up ...while that is occurring. Putting an accurate reputation together with an inaccurate reputation may be a risky blend (or not...) but, these subtleties/relationships are not altogether intuitively unsound. That's the models... Presently, Wunder' layout has 31 to 34 T over DPs averaging 28 F along Rt 2 .. and there is on average a bit of a drain component to the zephyrs being indicated. Temps and DPs in central NE are only colder. Not sure of the NAM's totals but if even 3/4's of that falls west of the city out through the Worcester Hills through these conditions that's ~ 6" of snow. Not sure what the Euro QPF is/was... Worth of discussion in my mind.

3-5" of 7 or 8:1 interior

If we can translate these 18z NAM grid QPF numbers for LGA ... up here over our interior zones, ...we'd be putting down a major snow: 18032977712 01803 160523 50020305 24037976626 04002 110619 48020003 30018979031 06804 080219 44020102 36022968835 -0109 073517 42010000 ...I think the reason why I like the NAM so much is because it's a lot like me: Lof of what could happen without ever telling anyone what's going to happen. Seriously, that's a lot of QPF for a marginal surface to 800 mb temperature profile as it is for them. ...Well, not so much the first interval there... but the last three... ALB is up near 1/2" and Logan too in this 18z run... But only ALB looks clad for 9:1 or so snow. Boston looks like pellets and paws in mocking cold rain.

Right...was just gonna snark about that 10 Day Euro's attempt to blue-ball the hopefuls on Xmass Eve... Question is, how gullible. So, it's mid way thru the month... nearing 150 pages. If there's usefulness to this thread it's probably lost irrecoverably buried beneath reams of torment at this point. Maybe December Discussion part II is in order?

And if the last three week's worth of trends can be used as an inference technique... more likely just another in a growing registry of faux pattern leads .... Amazing how many "sucker" punches.

It's a winter a pattern ... it's just not offering what folks want -

Just gonna say... after 7 straight days of 34/12 ... being over 45 in light wind and sun is a gem over-looked

Mm... sorry if this 'seems' over-the-top or perhaps overtly dramatic ... still, I'd be careful. 'Been thinking about this... you don't know that poster personally - or do you? The whole 'debate' wrt to relaxation vs warm-up vs neither ...vs [ enter interpretation ] is strikingly sophomoric to begin with, but .... is bordering on creepy internet stalker behavior ... From what I've gathered, this is a relative unknown who has set out to expose another poster as coveting some sort EPS bias. Fine, seems rather benign on the surface ... but that should have been wrapped up inside of (at most...) five heated exchanges followed the typical internet-make-out session. The Meteorologist that the extra-double top secret poster (with an equally extraordinary life, mind us...) holds a grudge against was either a ... an arbitrary target ... or far more likely b ... did something to abash them when they used to engage in the forum under a different pseudonym. (Pseudonym is the same as a pen-name/"internet handle" , for those younger, iconographic non-English communicating e-zombies who have posted resentment for ever having to read more than ten words strung together and can't fit on their slimy pathogenic phone screens... Good sign for the future of our society as we relay the torch, huh? ) One could have said "pattern relaxation" that and put any label on it and/or why ... but because one Met said EPS ... the other user, for whatever reason, has set out on some obsessive crusade to abase that Met. I almost wonder ... if this is just taking the emotional-reliance fixation neurosis to an extreme level.. and said Met is seen as someone that taints the other user's "drug" source. If that's the case... you know, you folks should think outside the box and be careful. What part of the last five to ten users of U.S. culture leads you believe this site is any different. Clearly, there are tendencies (all kidding aside) to be stem-wound obsessed with this agenda. We live in a day and age where an unsavory reality has been exposed: people need shocking uninspired reasons to act badly... Just look up David Katz .. User 24 He was an internet obsessed maladjusted nimrod that fomented paranoia in a gamer-based forum community. You don't know who this person is. I dunno, fwiw - Regardless, November ... it was very highly likely that the pattern was destined to relax closing out the month and going through December ... at some point or the other. Regardless of the source for that expectation.. ..to maintain 7" snow storm chances in between days in the teens (T.G.) beginning from Novie 20 would be excruciatingly rare.

Can someone explain "gradient pattern"

Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination. Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking. Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall... with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England.

Looks like this run's headin' for an xmas bomb ... we'll see.

It appeared to me the Euro trended NW slightly ... the last four cycles of that model have done so - the trend I think ... for how little that's worth.. heh ... we are not likely to see a much better phase than we are already seeing? But, we could still pick up a wishy-washy ICON type deal out of this - more below. Firstly, the previous Euro trough handling, and it's pallid surface reflection, were all due east of the Carolinas, as little as two day's worth of cycles ago. As of last night, it clips CC ... So the trend is clad. Forgetting the Euro for a moment ... the flow is probably too fast to really allow a proficient phase. Stranger things have probably happened... but that speed means less time for the N/stream to get involved and bypasses. However, the larger scaled synoptic circulation gets a little steeper in a scenario where the rising PNA means more backside western ridge correction - and it can be subtle. To summarize ... the best possibility to get cold rain to maybe flip to some Holiday spirit would be for the southern stream quasi closed low/deep layer trajectory to work around a more N motion along the eastern seaboard, if 'perhaps' related to PNA adjustment. The GFS seems to already want to do this to some degree with ( ) some lesser dependable model types biting hard. Long shot but the only shot... By the way, that parallel GFS run was a down right Holiday dream for N of NYC ... There's three snows between early on the 23rd through early on the 26th... with blue air flurries in between

You mean like that 00z ICON? ... I am less familiar with the specifics on the December 2002 take a look tomorrow

Mm interesting. A little closer to phasing… It's been sort of trend by inches for several runs. But the bigger correction that I was thinking (if so) probably wouldn't come until 48 hours because it's a rapid fast flow scenario where whatever gets ejected off the pacific into the physical soundings moves quite rapidly across the continent "maybe" benefiting from a robust ridge correction in the west ... We're not there yet but this run illustrates

I could actually see this correct in the next 24 to 48 hours into a much cleaner phase if indeed the Nstream dives in more aggressively as a correction. In that model ... cold air gets entrained in the mid levels - fascinating dynamical system like you're supposed to get December go wonder I just see that all as not impossible and seeing as we've been sort of on course towards impossibility it's nice to see any possibility at all I don't know if that makes any sense. Anyway it's not usually far-fetched with such a dramatic PNA rise going on… We may just have yet to see the models correct over North America

Heh .. The problem is that in both American agencies... the CDC and CPC, the PNA is rising smartly through the next seven days That places a bit of a signal in/around early next week anyway over Eastern America I see it as possible that shortly after that wave comes off the Pacific in 48 hours+ that Western Ridge in the backside corrects towards more amplitude and if that's the case that northern stream subsequently digs into the lakes at a steeper slope; that changes the landscape a bit in a hurry

The table is set in the 0z NAM. Just need the northern stream to show up and that gets fantastic in a hurry

Parallel GFS run's shift was demonstrative.

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z... I'm sure you're aware of that. One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!' ...In a general sense, that works often enough. I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction - ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that. So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein: they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

Political? Ho -man... Lil' advice... spare your self the utter insanity of trying to wade through those quagmires. Particularly in this day and age, when the internet has coagulated political islands ...schisms self-feedback empowered by merely finding other nimrods that think the same biased way they do. There's a whole sociological crisis afoot actually ...which we probably can take off topic and should from this point forward, but ... sufficed it is to say: in this era of fractured ethos across the greater expanse of culture (meaning, furthering break-downs of common social outlooks), you simply can not engage in any worthwhile intellectual quorum on the Internet wrt to politics, and all the above with comm is only part of the reason why. It's an untenable resulting complexity where vitriol can be the only goal.

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time. Now ... y'all on either side may feel more righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well. One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further. It's interesting. I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. I see it all the time, elsewhere too.. Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal. Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?" Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye. But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet. Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination. Oops! Any predisposition in the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up...