Typhoon Tip

That lack of antecedent boundary layer inhibition ( i.e., no cold air ) was also instrumental in why the surface low 'tucked in' west so quickly - I think ...well, hope anyway, that with that identifiably the case it might protect model interpretation from making that mistake. But ya never know huh

This is the third day running that the teleconnectors based off the GFS ensembles have been signaling an early winter.. Heh.. yeah, subtle hyperbole there - sue me. But, the PNA is very robust in CDC and has been for a few days. That's a whopper mode change... -2 to +2 is a total of 4 SD and considering the spatial layout of the PNA domain, that's an awful lot of atmospheric mass change to thing that won't show up in the pattern somehow. But warm going to a cool one. The EPO is positive but neutralizes in tandem... I think that is because the PNA is so robust that it is overlapping the EPO a bit and weighting it down some. That's okay too - I've noticed plenty of times in the past, that these two indices seem to precede one another. A strong +PNA may become a -EPO and the PNA neutralizes... say. OR, the -EPO neutralizes, and the PNA rises... ( it's obvious why that behavior unfolds but it's too much for a phone screen) Meanwhile, the AO is going negative through the next two weeks. ...hmm, not sure, but... -AO/+PNA ain't zactly forcin' any sweaters off in late October/Novie

mm... I'm not really moved by insidious black IR blotches ... I recall one of those in the 1990s that trekked into the eastern Caribbean that was like blowing a hole so deep into the tropopause with cloud tops pegged so far beyond the cold part of the scale that it ceased to exist - over a large area, too and persisted for two days. TPC has a 60 mph tropical storm nearing cane status ... until, a RECON finally gets in there and whaaaa.. They couldn't even close off a circulation. They report was like ...sorry man... this is an open wave. Ever since then a little voice in the internal monologue questions the vitality of a 'cyclone' when I'm basing it purely upon satellite inference. Ever notice also ...sometimes when there a dark convective blotches bombin' away on a loop for several hours, if/when it up and decays all at once...it seems to fold into its self in a cyclonic fashion? Yet, there may not actually be any air moving into much of anything in a cyclonic fashion... It just sort of implodes cyclonically signifying nothing - I've always thought that was interesting.

Yeah ...I'm with you on this. I actually stopped scratching my head over their seasonal outlooks because frankly, I don't even look anymore - I just go ahead and auto-assume they'll have somewhere between 30 and 60% probability for warmer than normal rust painted all over the map without even looking.. This is the first year in a bunch actually that I recall seeing that kind of large scale "implication" for an offsetting cool potential - even if it is just in a relative sense and is only achieving neutrality as the nadir ( Lakes /NP there). But that's true - I've done the exact same thing ( funny ) and wondered how in the f they got to even 30 % for above normal when the there are pretty obvious global markers for EPO this or AO that and so forth. Annoying.. I will give them credit on something ... about 7 or 9 years ago I wanna say, they begin putting caveat emptors into their discussions that go along with some of these annotation products, where they admit to less than ideal skill in predicting the EPO/AO/NAO polarward modulations. '...Tend to have intraseasonal variability that is both not well understood and therefore cannot be determined with much of any skill' - to paraphrase. That does sort of free them from absolute culpability when/if a winter does a 2014 in Chi-town ...or a 2015 in Boston...

Actually ...speaking of that societal impact stuff... I remember the morning after the 2007 ice storm up there in the Worcester Hills. I was living in Acton Mass at the time, a so-called "perimeter township" to the hot zone. What I later learned is when a region of the grid fails, the neighboring trunks attempt to pick up the slack - so to speak - and that can cause their systems to go then go down as a cascade, because the draw overwhelms. The sub-stations and buckets up utility poles have breakers, and they can en masse trip and/or arc and fail. We were not even icing in Acton by 9 pm the night accretion was passing an inch encasement in the towns 8 miles west as the crow flies, but the blue glows immediately preceding their eerie deep resonance emanated from over the horizons and heralded in our town's going down with the ship...F! The next morning, it was something... the sullen faces, drawn down under archless eyebrows standing in a line that stretched out a Dunkin' Donuts door and down the parking lot some couple hundred feet. Apparently since that strip had a CVS there was a generator servicing just that location, and the D&D happened to be on the circuit, and so opened for coffee and minor provisions as long as supplies last. They were charging or it too. The people occasionally peered at watches as they stood on line just before rotating their glances to and fro as though belated in coming to terms with the it all. I sat there peering through my windshield as my car slipped into park, wondering if it was worth it to get in that line, and felt embarrassed. How even I was so beholden to the grid, exposing the arrogance of a society that lives in a delusion of security provided by electricity, and has long become vastly too wholly dependently reliant upon it. It's not like I hadn't experienced that kind of outre shame before - whenever the power goes out that's part of it. But sitting there, in that moment, for some reason I was more profound struck by it, and how fake everything really is What's funny ... you can go to a camping or outdoors prep store and buy these small wood stove coffee maker set ups inside of 20 bucks... No one in that line even knows that's true.

I connected with this sentiment back in 1986 ... It was an innocuous icing event in the deeper interior up through the northern Mass that wasn't particularly well forecast... It happened over Xmass week off from High School/week after the holiday it's self - sneakily avoiding the annuls. But, we had maybe .8" total accretion from freezing drizzle ...almost never coming down enough to call it rain. 31.8 F in freezing mist in a cold pal air that smelled like a mash up of chimneys with that cryo-tundra smell. I actually really wanted to experience the zr rain to fall harder to get into some of that yore stuff... until, about day two, when the mortar fire of timbre failure kicked in and the power went out for two days henceforth. It was not a big deal icing event with sporadic outages ... but my neighborhood was out of power in cold weather long enough to learn that lesson; the novelty of that particular type of winter phenomenon runs with certain rapidity when one is standing there in the cold and dark And yes... these sorts of things are jolt reminders ... the Carrington Events or comet impacts ... they're out there.

I was talking about something else ..- and, I was feeling devious and wanted the reactions. Ha. boy did that work! I understand what you are saying and in fact, that psychology and so forth is entirely obvious. Of course there is a relative impact/imprinting thing there.. But I also mean what I said - I sometimes do at times get sick of it before it even occurs, and start looking beyond the storm before it even happens. That has nothing to do with invalidating this event - which is interesting the reaction that followed. It proves the sensi bias of readers.

I would even submit that those CPC temperature anomaly distributions in that product above are actually encouraging for cold enthusiasts - NCEP/CPC's method employs a strong multi-decadal trend component to their base-line, and rolling eyes aside, that's been a warm trend ... which is more than merely partial in why their seasonal outlooks are dominated by warm probabilities when they are published every autumn now going back many many years at this point. SO, in order to "compensate" for that rather robust preexisting bias, there may be some pretty impressive countering signals there. Cold NW loading would be necessary to render a weighted signal as neutral in this case, being the impetus. There's a need to see the "relativity" of there - relative to the GW signal and/or whatever it is that is causing the warmer starting biases.

I like your broader perspectives on matters though - just in case, don't be discouraged... The gist of your attack on the subject matter and overall outlook is what - I believe - one needs to formulate these seasonal outlooks. Not that you asked... but, my forte has always been in specific mid and extended range threat assessing, not so much seasonal-length stuff. My thing relies upon a different set of para and solid metrics. SO, I may not be the best choice for 'grading' you or anyone else, per se ...as I don't actually spend much time delving into one's scripture. When I mentioned it 'screwing up' seasonal outlooks early on ... I really only referred ( in my mind ) to what I remember individuals admitted and/or grousing upon in their own volition.

I did ...and I admitted that and spoke at length about it yesterday what's the point ? Your response is out of line relative to what I was talking about - clearly you got other agenda ... because you're not even responding to the facets I was tongue-in-cheeking about. Look, I don't care about your thread and your reputation? That kind of celebrity policing you've always engaged in is pretty laughable and at times tedious and a bore

Ha ha! perfect ... and perfectly predicable.

Can't wait 'till the after glow of this thing wears off and this thread unpins and fades - don't you ever just get tired of a storm? I have to admit, sometimes I encounter this phenomenon ( personally ) even before the first flakes start falling...when from inception and conceptualization in the tele's, to materialization throughout the modeling and internet fights that may very well precipitate out of that with greater QPF than the storm actually even goes on to do itself, ...to finally having whatever it turns out actually take place ... By the time we get there, the whole of thing may be as much as two weeks in some cases - particularly in some rare times when the over-arcing physical prominence is so foreboding in the atmosphere, ...the attributes are picked up exceptionally early. I'm just done after two weeks haha. Like, sometimes truth be told ..I'm off to looking at the models three days before the storm, ...for something...anything afterward other than the f'ing storm at hand because it's become so ad nauseam. This thing started entering that phase of 'jesus - enough is enough already' about three two days ago

Heh... it depends on what scale and persnickety focus one wants to beady-eyed obsess over with an electron tunneling microscope because every f'ing low there ever was on the surface of the planet has at some point along the Norwegian model cycling ... ephemerally supported some for or another of a meso-micro to meso or meso-beta scaled secondary or tertiary tendency to spin independently... That's not the same thing compared to what I saw in the models, with tropical f'um cyclones in orbit around that thing. Let's be fair... some people want some people to be wrong more so than they really care about the science of the thing. But...such is life and times in the shenanigans of the razor sharp cutting intellectual and objectively fair analysis of the social-mediasphere so what does one expect -

I'm fed up with NGRID ... they got this region of society by the ballz and know it, and act like it... The instant you are 30 seconds late on a bill their harangue kicks in like your dollars keeps the gears of society lit up ... with dire warnings of service interruption... but if you over pay you don't hear a goddamn thing. A petty greed tact that I might be willing to overlook if they wouldn't randomly turn off the power and/or just fail to maintain the grid in general so often. It's complete monopolistic lording and squeezing pennies and they don't do shit but distribute - badly at that. Government? Ps fk man...they're complicit probably.. Anyway, I found this and thought some might find it interesting.. This was the GFS ensembles from - I think - 12z four days ago... I had cut this out for this thread so it's probably in here many pages ago anyway, but I thought was cool to see how far E the mean was ...some 500 km of where it ended up or more. I recall this was the closest pass the mean made at the time/run too. So probably comparable to time interval this error even ballooned some.. Let's try and keep this in mind when a blizzard bomb is scheduled to just miss a month from now

This particular chart looks like a repro of the PNAP base-line pattern. ( perennial north-american pattern ). It's basically just a mass-balanced product, reflecting the winds' bowing over the terrain of the west and then coupled attempting in the east - So perhaps the ECM "series" ( not sure how this is derived ) just happens to mimic that - that'd be amazing. Otherwise, "if" it's just averaging a blizzard ensemble looks than it becomes less than meaningfully predictive to me. But again ...how is this product derived ? Funny, with ensembles there's that rub - one of them may be exactly right. Also, is there a polar stereographic depiction from the Euro seasonal?

This graph inspires some speculative ideas ... Like, seeing the present curve cross the 2012, per date, means we are setting a time-relative record... so that much is more empirical. I still think it interesting... how it's a under-the-radar achievement. Don and I discussed this a month or so ago, how that behavior in its self is probably just as important as the actual bottom of the curve. But the other more speculative wonder is whether the onsetting solar minimum, together with black-body feed-backs, could have something to do with that nadir falling shy of 2012. The present heavily advertised 'super minimum' was not yet that far along in 2012, so this year's total insolation might be some critical fraction less than 2012 ... less implying less melt now. Again... speculation .. but, melt temperature for sea-ice is a discrete temperature ... It's not like oh, it's 3 warmer but it doesn't feel like a melt day.. heh. At the point of seasonal loss, that temperature is being influenced very delicately by outside influence, wither it is quantum sufficient in energy to flip phases - and not all those influence may be Terrestrial in origin. There are other factors that are more important, though ( probably ). Like days with cloud cover/increased albedo not allowing as much solar energy reaching the darkening sea/ice interface... Or just the vagaries of the wind and weather patterns happened to chance 2012 with more delivery long-wave radiation air masses to/at high latitudes... or this, or that ... and on and so on. I guess at the end the day, it really comes down to the fact that although that gap looks pretty coherent there in that graph, we're really talking about almost imperceptible variations from the orbital polar stereographic view.

I did clearly state yesterday that would be the case ... re the coastal concern. Steve... I have lived withing surf-sound of the sea-shore ( say that 10 times fast ) before... I am climate savvy in both worlds, and have written well-received descriptive prosaic works that compare/contrast the culture and setting disparities between the two. But, that is the problem.. one is only as good as their last work in our culture, and since I'm disgruntled and full of snark shit these days... that's all that people read and remember now hahaha But seriously, the 'weird' thing Will mentions cannot be underscored enough. It's something about this I mentioned a couple three days ago ... how unilaterally the model(s) was/were indicating a truck load of mid level kinematics ...unbalanced by virtually zippo low level thickness gradient across the region. It was extreme in that idiosyncrasy .. to have that much mechanical power disking over top of an incipid surface layout. It may be counter intuitive ...but when it's cold in ALB but warm in ACK ..that horizontal difference means there is stronger frontogenic tendency between... certainly an elevated frontal slope escaping sky-ward with a steeply inclined upward slope; whereby, as DPVA and associated Q-G forcing moves along that sloped boundary ( 2005 Dec ), the inflow jets/restoring motion is thus forced upright very proficiently adding to and exacerbating the UVM.. That draws the deepening potential closer to the surface ... Sorry for that - it's for the general reader...But the point is, this system was missing the critical component layout ... Man, if there was cold air available to this sucker it REALLY would have been wound up like a top! Probably would have been 964 mb over ISP, with 850 -700 mb UVM so extreme that concomitant height falls would have drawn the total tropospheric depth SE toward that location and then we really would have had some unbelievable momentum issues and something historically profiling overall... This basically maxed out what mid levels can do in the absence of surface parameterization - What I was really wrong about was the translation speed of this system. I think it is probably more a testament to its compensating mechanical power? It was enough so to quasi cut it off from the flow at least transiently, and thus resist the ambient faster flow over all. I kinda sorta mist that and figured the faster stuff would 'foist' this up toward down East Maine and NS more so than its stall point turned out to be, which was closer to southern NH. Interest.. But I am highly confident a weaker mechanized system would have carried about NE This turned out pretty close to what I visualized. It was pedestrian for 80some % of the region or more, but relative extremeness relegated to shore zones - which may or may not be usefully compared to other events in the past that struck those regions.

Ah I dunno ... maybe because there are zero, 1::1 cause of/and effect relationships in a three dimensional fluid medium that is physically influenced by uncountable factors? Thus, one that is by definition interspersed by moments of spontaneity borne of fractals --> giving rise at times to faux emerging comparable events, at other times ... seemingly well behaved ? You know, chaos theory - That would be my first guess. Also, these larger planet-scaled observed(ing) changes that are becoming ever more coherent, may also not be a readily observable at all times in the past - when in a changing frequency, that immediately infers that whatever is one is looking for would/might be harder when peering backward along that slope. Also, it is not, "how do you explain" ? This isn't just me making supposition ( just in case ). I'm actually thrilled that these concerns I began voicing ten years ago, are now being papered and peer reviewed and noted at/among agencies, unaffiliated to me, out there in the greater ambit of those that actually matter. It shows I was ahead of the game and formulated cogent ideas on the direction of the climate, a long while ago. Heh. It kind of reminds me of that scene on the dock in "Jaws" 1975. Dr. Hooper was trying to explain over the din of the yoke's that they probably did not actually catch the man-eating Carcharias Carcharodon of their exulted hootin' and hollerin.' He's suddenly finds himself in a scenario where he has to back slowly away from their vitriol as he mutters, "... And it's not something I wanna lose my life over..." Threatening folks with reduction of winter will get one thrown into a harbor .. I'm being tongue-in-cheek there of course.. but it does seem to piss people off... I mean I don't even think it is directed at me, personally. See... we run our own brand of climate denial in here ( I've noticed). Depending upon the chosen contexts we are open to engage in the suggestion of it, and may even willingly speak in dire terms ... Until dimming the prospects of winter is detected in distant orbit. Look out. As tho to accept that means accepting it may dwindle snow/and/or winter-related drama and allure in general ... I got news for us all. It will. It's a matter of time. Oh the usual defensive mantra immediate precipitates "..yeah, but not in our life-time," or that cherry picked study that convincingly sounds like its all a 100 years off. Whatever. That may be true - sort of. But it's sorta not, too. Because the expanded Hadley Cell stuff, and quickening flow rates, all of that.. is not just me? It has been noted by NCEP, and is also empirical too ...and is a way in which CC is changing things within our lifetime. Hello - Fearing sounding like a hypocrite... I do personally think that we can get punishingly "good" winters for an interim ... as well, "bad" winters, both occurring in their own rites. And that mid latitudes losing winters thru CC is an unknown numbers of years off, if not decade(s).. But, the impetus there is who knows when synergistic thresholds - or those that are kind of forced to happen in jolts do to competing forcing coming into constructive interference and so forth .. - may "snap" a region or greater into new paradigms. Or if it just gradually sneaks up and suddenly Boston puts up it's first 0" snow year and everyone cobbles together this brilliant master work explaining - of course - why it could have happened anyway, that in reality is a bargaining ploy. We are already seeing winters be affected/effected though.

Mm ...sounds like some storm-interpretive 'over-selling' going on in here, too... The most exciting aspect about this, relative to our "storm climatology," is that it happened at all. The run up to this thing was uniquely prepping the locals for histrionics because it's like the first 90 F day in June ? It seems reDICulously hot? Same affect. It came upon the region during an otherwise dearth of activity, a time in which folks had gotten a bit stirred by withdrawal symptoms ( kidding there...) But either way, a tad anxious for anything at all to happen - Look, we've had big rain and/or wind events in storms of lore and past. Plenty that exceeded this thing's impact and how many of them can one name ? Damage is too sporadic and within expectations for an average New England blow. I'll let all the final reports wonder in before making a final assessment but this event is not that memorable to me, not between northern and central Mass. Also - imho - the low pressure descended to 973 mb over SW NH is a record: that is more a function of 'first time' in that location - and has to be a spatial anomaly more than anything else.. because there are many 970 mb lows in CT/RI and eastern MA in the records... Because of that spatial idiosyncrasy, that doesn't really reflect any enormity of the cyclone its self - so using that to justify this as something more I don't believe is entirely, objectively fair. I'll be fair and say it was more than completely uninspired, insipid and dull - which is the formal-esque definition of pedestrian.. but heh.. not by much when comparing it to everything I've ever experienced between Chicago and Maine.

Told ya

watch for Opal

Yeah ...thunder

Interesting how the Euro has the low over southern VT at 12z tomorrow ..

it's a good question. I'm not personally aware of any specific tech that's developed the specifically progs that kind of phenomenon, but there are recognizable attributes/synoptics that portend. Typically, neggie tilt with extreme VV peeling NW around a deep mid level height fall ...which, heh, seems similar to this don't it - But, they don't all do it.. And, the isollabaric wind acceleration in this may be potent and could mimic that/and/or make it difficult to separate the two. Edmond Fitzgerald 1975 bomb over Lake superior and more recently, the 2005 Dec even that strafed the south coast ...are both very good examples of stratospheric entrainment

there's a signal CB with it's anvil rocketing due east