Typhoon Tip

With this Euro run... we have a better consensus though - it's just not ... right.

Course .. for me, if we get to Feb 10 and we're still playin' around with the denial of butt-bang game ...I'm out - screw it. Winter can go f' it'self. Time will tell..

2015 looked pretty bad on January 2nd that year. Granted...the global indicator may or may not bear any sort of resemblance leading, but sufficed it is to say...

Nor I " ... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario )," I said I was riding the Euro yesterday but I didn't like the 00z run to be honest and pulled the plug this morning myself... The fast flow is crippling in this case...too much gradient is keeping these/this open and progressive. it's always just a numbers game... either the wave adds enough or not. if not... next. the double wave structure with contentious phasing ain't helpin' neither. I suppose to be fair this one isn't entirely without hope... there's still 60 hours for this to re ...whatever. But frankly I don't know what we would be re-ing as it's been all over the place.

That NAM backed off the 06z S/W strength relaying off the Pac ( now ..) and that translates eventually into less ability to torque the flow and get things happening faster ... once that crucial bit of wave space succeeds the Mid Atlantic. The flow is so fast and compressed already that weaker waves pancake when they incur into the TV ...or attempt to, and then concomitantly slope positive.. = poop It would probably come down to excruciatingly tedious/minute sounding/grid initialization differences and probably NCEP wouldn't dig that deep. Could just imagine them writing, "DIFFERENCES DO NOT APPEAR TO EFFECT THE PROCESSING OF NAM" when it's clear there's a difference to everyone else

But the common denominator is someone is getting skunked - awesome ...

By the way ...i'm not sure if anyones noticed this...but I f-up routinely and "prematurely" post... I hate that. I keep posting two sentences by accident like palsy or something... then I have to scramble and finish the missives.

Just for the general information... this is not entirely true. There are plenty of examples of flat ridge eastern bombs in the KU reference guides and other historical sources for that matter. It certainly helps, and, in the majority of eastern north american, significant cyclogenesis events, you will in fact have some form of a western north american positive geopotential anomaly. However, there is another factor in play (... now, that is preventing the flat wave detonation scenario ), and it has to do with whether the flow is compressed in the east... At times more so than others... and if an ejected wave in question does so into a relaxed H500 mb isohypses layout, those have the best chance at creating their own lead S/W ridge roll-out and inducing the wave break without the large scale wave/positive/constructive interference feed-back. ..complex. There is a broader, longer termed systemic problem related to that... where the expanded Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes is increasing the ambient compression, speeding up of the ambient flow; that factor is robbing from S/W mechanics because the speed maxes are not differentiating as proficiently as they did in the middle part of last century.

Boy that 00z Euro solution was a quick mover ... so fast, in fact, my first impression was that the rains snow line would be moving east across the area at the same rate its ending... See-ya! But, the Euro being 24 hrly frames for use as poor boys ... may just sneak in several hours. And the 06z ... right - forgot about that. The 06z GFS is relaying the S/W over B.C. ... the Euro is naturally going to be detecting that in its grids, too. It's worth it to guess that a sudden small, yet crucially more potent morphology transitory down east of the U.S. could be related to that detection. And, if the 12z may yet offer more.

Low’s busted open between convection out at sea and the Q-G forcing back west

wow... sorry - I didn't realize that last paragraph was a poem like that. I should pull that one and polish it heh

00Z pops that near ISP ... any takers ?

Oh, this GFS solution is clearly a trend toward the 12z Euro in the H500 synoptic evolution - coherently so... I'd say it's an incremental improvement if one is of the ...more rather than less snow and storm political orientation... Rare bird in here, I know -

Re James' unchecked unabashed ebullient reaction to the NAM... you need to get that trough rotated around at a minimum into a neutral orientation, then we'll talk. This system doesn't have the dynamics to do it positively tilted, so it's going to need to better DPVA to get the lift required... This run is trying desperately but - I wouldn't sweat it personally. I'm putting my chips in a Euro 70/ukmet 30 blend and letting the dice roll ... The entire American cluster owns the burden of proof as it's not really as dependable as the Euro at < D4 leads. Plus, if anything the trend vector has been pointing toward the Euro in this case.

If I go look at that solution and it turns out to be the same old putrid p.o.s. not a big deal head scratcher as to why anyone thinks it is otherwise nonsense again, you are permanently blocked

Forget it ... there's no ear for such lies in among the Lords of the Flies -- Lord knows...I've tried

ha hahaha... Equal opportunity employer - gotta give all social-media candidates an opportunity to connect with a device and run with it

Man... the run y'all want to succeed is that NAVGEM.... man, that's like 12 straight hour of S/S+ for just about everyone...

Lol ... you mean like, 'unless this actual hits us' - just say that

Mm... nice op-ed floating around out there about the die off of the Kelp forests around/off the Tasmanian coast - the gate way to the Antarctic as it's known. The oceanic warming in that vicinity has bested the global average by 4 times. 4 times! ... and the consequence, that example right there is a direct one that expose how GW that exceeds species adaptation rates = death It's just a matter of degrees before the trigger is pulled. Gaia can't make this message any more gentle and kind ... giving us small paradigms to sample our stench. but just like all incalcitrance ... you give them chances upon chances, break after break after break, and they don't amend.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

Seems to be maintaining that gestalt in this run, too. It may still have some intra-trough contention... not truly ideally phasing and whatever, but it definitely is more proficiently smoothing out the wave interactivity in a more harmonious fusion. We can see...that escaping near bomb is a result of that - As I was mentioning in the other thread ... I think the Euro being inside of D4 while the UKMET leaned in with a campaign contribution are red flags for something more than the GFS. Which frankly, the GFS's speed obsession ...it might not be the best model for these subsume scenarios... even when/in the partial sense, it'll always end up in a lesser proficient paradigm.

Wrong thread but the JMA/GGEM and this run are ominous for next Wednesday

This is a quick moving NJ Model low in this 12z oper. Euro ...might approach bombogen criteria, but probably rapid enough either way to clip the region with middling concerns. Others are right... there's going to be some height fall requirement/but 850 mb pulling down cold from the N once that and the 700 surface are closing off would likely accelerates that. Airs some semblance to me of November 1986. This has a pretty potent frontogenic signature there, even using the poor granularity of the free-bee products that is discernible. With a 500 surface closing and heights falling with cyclogen kick-back, destablization in a band or two gives some meso/thunder concerns - but I may be too optimistic with deepening rates. Close call! Anyway, inside of D4 on the Euro is typically in 80th percentile for correct... There may be times where it has performed worse, but there are enough where it's 90 or better...it's a got a solid and reasonably dependability for 84 to 96 lead.

That does appear to be a CCB formulation attempt there -