Typhoon Tip

For those of us that long for the warmth of spring and the return vibe of vitality, leading the anticipation of summer ... etc, etc, some encouraging signs from the 00z EPS mean that the recent Euro operational ideas of relaxing the seasonality/cool appeal in the east is now only a week away. I'm looking forward... because we can hand-ring and wanton lust for these -NAO but like this one hammers over heads and the lessen still fails to get through skulls ...the -NAO is not what people think it means for winter enthusiasts. It's a suppression signal ...as the lower/Mid Atlantic low escape and failure along the EC proves for the millionth time. Heather Archembault's paper from way back in the day explained statistically in fairly discrete results that the primary storm-loading pattern for the eastern U.S. is the PNA modality... with, as her conclusion paraphrases, a weaker corresponding similar behavior with the NAO. But, popular media and science-fad of the day seemed to flip this around and to this day,... approximately 1.5 generations-worth of individuals scientifically reared during that era, persist with that faux perception. The/her papers really just point out the the key to a large scale instibility is a disruption passing thru. It's really just using statistical methods to point out what is intuitively obvious ( to me..), but has it's huge value and merit in the scientific process. If a system reaches and equilibrium state, than it is quiescent and 'not storming' ... Then, something comes along to perturb the field ... cyclones results. That 'perturbation' of the field IS the changing index - the upward or downward moving teleconnector index means that there is something perturbing - that is why cyclones happen more frequently at the teleconnector inflection points. Since the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere tends to move west to east at mid latitudes...it then adds to the intuitive notion that the PNA would be a better loader than the NAO... because the PNA comes from the west. The NAO probably has a better use as a 'modifier' ... destructive or constructively interfering with the PNA's signal(s) depending on which way its index is moving in tandem. Almost like the MJO; when the WPO/NP/EPO are out of sync with the MJO, the MJO doesn't seem to have much echo in the flow as an enforcing agent... Yet, when they sync up, look out! Synergy results and the flow characteristics can get extreme in either direction. The NAO probably adds ( not in the exact same way...), but offers modulations that help/constructively interfere's with troughs, or vice versa... to mention, helping cold loading in front-sides to enhance baroclinicity/thermodynamic instability that way...and on and so on. Anyway, this NAO migration that's going to unfold over this next 3 to 5 days ...hearkens my attention back to this annoying misconception that was handed down by early assumptions in the late 1980s and early 1990s and everyone ran away with... I'd take a pulsed rising PNA with antecedent -EPOs any day before a NAO does anything as a winter enthusiast. But at this time of year...I don't want either. I'm hoping the NAO relaxing while the PNA fails to actually go positive, as per last night, are indications that the EPS/Op. Euro are onto a warm mid month

Two runs in a row and the Euro's D7-10 exit to spring

Nah...the sounding's probably thermally straight up to 700 mb... 37 putrid butt-bangin' hell - It's amazing leaf out ever happens in this hemispheric scaled, meat-locker tuck geography called New England

Welcome to New England's uniquely sorted spring charm -

Looks like the NAO is betraying y'all in incremental run erosion ... experimentally seeing what it takes to give up - then it'll bring it back once NCEP sees only melancholy posting tenors. Y'allz jump on board and get excited, then everything misses -

It's weird ... I'm not sure if this is just acclimation phenomenon as it pertains to my person but ...it seems we keep putting up rather lofty monthly temperature anomalies and I don't feel we've had much 'warm' appeal to it. That goes back years too... Like the summer a couple clicks ago, when the big eastern ridge was modeled for the first week of July - when the GFS was MOSing 115 ( ) and we rightfully suspected its error. Turned out to be a 96/72er heat wave which is plenty hot but... the summer as a whole didn't seem outlandishly warm - humid and dewy after that, but not appreciably "hot" ...yet, the numbers seemed to suggest Venus came to Earth. I think part of this is that the overnight lows are skewing perception? I guess I don't care enough to look into it... But +4 to +5 above average ...'seems' like we should have had more days warmer than full sun 44 F'ers and that's what I remember the majority of afternoons...otherwise, we've even logged a snowfall in there. We did do a 70 day though... Maybe 40 years ago, this March would have been down right balmy by common experience... But not today? And sensibly, this was not 2012 - it almost seems like this 2020 March achieved those lofty numbers by successfully evading a pleasant month - culminating in a global Pandemic -forced shut-down of Humanity to put the dog shit icing on the fecal cake gestalt that is clearly out attack our species...

Tomorrow is a downslope dandy day.... That's got super-adiabatic surface T's written all over it.. Prolly is full sun, light wind 62 F right to the coast.

Just speaking to the operational Euro's 00z 03/26/2020 solution ... I thought the block looked less... D-7-10 clearly shows that collapsing into the west Atlantic basin perennial ridge...BUT, there is a better homage to a +PNAP and cold loading into SE Canada, too ...so, perhaps either way. The GGEM was also looking rather betrayed with the scale-degree of NAO too... heh. The other thing I'm thinking, even for the Euro ...all these guidance' are going to prove again that they suffer sun-normalization at a hemispheric scale ... can't be avoided given the current state of tech art in modeling and the fact that it's after the Equinox. The modulation in the physics is an 'acceleration' of sort, albeit subtle... it is a stalker to cold solutions. I have seen countless D 9 deep 500 mb solutions at this time of year, that look like an assumption of a deeper surface evolution would be fine. But what ends up happening is strong mid level anomaly with weaker pressure responses underneath... kind of grapple showers in the hills and cool rains showers under pan-cake shallow toppers. What happens is the baroclinicity gets normalized by punishing irradiance in the days leading. Not sure why the models don't seem to handle this kind of "synergistic" reduction in the barclinicity in spring so well, but even here, ...that deep trough the Euro engineers ends up with a broad, but less deep low comparatively... That's sort of a hint some of this is happening- That all said...we've had blizzards in early April... not discounting that climo either ... It's really like everything, it's a processes of dwindling probabilities for returns at this time of year...and if something does happen in early April, it just means that the anomaly was sufficient to offset seasonal forcing -

-NAO however ... the modeling for that particular index has delivered more betrayals than I care to count. Also, it is the time of the year where faux modes are more common. That said, the best way to get late March/early April event would be to have that GEF's derivatives actually take place, so if one is holding out hope ... it's a good start to at least see both agencies crashing the NAO index from +3 all the way to -2 ... That, while is matched with operational runs depicting west-based blocking nodes. Too bad.. everything about reality is dour .. it's weird. Pandemics and no winter, and no spring -

Odd behavior with this thing.. We snowed moderately and steady later yesterday afternoon and early evening to almost 4" ..then, flipped to sleet and cold rain as the temperature was falling to 32.5. The mat-downing was underway by 7 .. 7:30 pm ...Then, the wind picks up with ominous whirs, and everything flashed over to heavy snow that went on to burst for about 1.5 hours worth and another 3"... Then, back over to cold rain and sleet.. Bit of a head scratch because this later flip back was amid the genesis of the CCB featuring on rad and sat, and in theory, the column should have continued to cool. But it seemed to warm during that period of time. Interesting. Not sure how the event finished, but by 3 am the sky was just black, there was no wind, and glop flopping rained from the trees. Too bad, too, it stripped the gracing off the trees and that would have been a pretty specter at sun-up but.

Hammering in Ayer

Epic bright band through the state looks like dynamics are totally kicking model ass

Epic flashover the heavy snow and wind here

yup ... it will be a nerd's paradise watching that transition as a CCB gets going and this thing stationary's then start moving SW.. The big pivot!

there it is...33 ... vis now est .5 mi is light/mod small aggregate snow.

This ptype monitoring could be complex. The expectation gets muddled by the marginal nature vs the dynamics/mechanics of this whole system. The pings and transition could march N in January ... while we marginal below that level - oy. Confused further, if the elevated centers close off and heights decimal implode that little amount then we start snow growth at lower levels and do that whole 33 back over to snow thing when/if a CCB also concurrently gets more NE trajectory/organized. At which time, the snow line collapses SE with the BL temp maybe even a degree or two warmer than now. Right now we have BL flow that is ESE here but that seems to be relaxing as the cold profile has been taking over, so we are probably getting some low lvl damming from wetbulbing going too.

small uniform aggregates here in Ayer at (supposedly ...) 35 F ... but, that's shaved 4 in 30 minutes, so at this rate and considering the DP is 29...we're probably heading to 31 F by next hour I'm guessing... Vis about 1.25 (est) and the fall is flitting around in the breeze not acting like it's very wet -

Ugh yeah... who knows. I do know my spring climo around here as we all do and gossamer warm layers out ahead of these kind of blue deals isn't that uncommon in spring. interesting

yeah, that too - calibrations not withstanding... I'm gonna go ahead and assume it's 33.1 or something... The snow really is flitting around like light and gingerly ...not 'wet' in nature. I mean we'll see how long it last...just at onset here. Looks like January from the window

all these home stations in Wunder have it 36 to 39 within a couple clicks of mi casa yet the snow aggregation is of the mid-small variety... This must be a very narrow ( typical for spring ) warm layer at the bottom.

we have medium small flakes here in Ayer in the last 10 minutes...

I'm not sure .. keep us posted, I'm curous. I'm looking around at event entry T/DP spreads, and knowing the thickness intervals, and the synopsis of this closing off centers south ... mm, the only thing going for this as a rain event is climo- but ...we know what that means. Anyway, I curious how this works out because this 'looks' per these observations like a straight up snow event to me...say HFD-NW RI to I-95 eastern MA...with dollar sized cat paws at Logan

Testament to the marginal nature of this... decimals mean 10" of wet snow vs 4" of slush vs cat paws, and that's probably within the technological margin for error ...

well... when has the "Kochera/2" rule ever been different anyway -

'What' is/was a trope that is commonly used in parlance to signify, 'think about it' You're question was unusual - and outmoded frankly. You didn't state 'why' you asked it...in a vacuum it made less sense base on what is both proven and common wisdom. People don't know what they are looking at with aerial vantage and information flux so they attack - the bottom line is, any D.C. outdoor event is safer than any such engagement indoors. So if officials were 'hunted' that is because 'people' have too much access and don't know how to analytically take it in.