Typhoon Tip

What the f* is this... ....

LOL... I was thinking that this morning when I saw this "island" solution ... That's like 12" of snow, followed on the next panel by [ probably ] 1.6" of High-tention AC power tower bending ice accretion - real crumpling event. Then I go look at the Euro and ...egh. Thing is, though the GGEM is a dart fight at a blind people's convention ... the Euro is probably too far west, whole-scale, with that trough evolution. The D9 doesnt' have the appearance of necessary kinematics leading, that 24 hours later it could implode such a deep mid and u/a hemispheric scale R-wave juggernaut like the Euro ALWAYS fuggin does at that time range anyway. So, I'm willing to bet that's flatter - to what ultimate solution? Meh, ...who knows...but in and of its self, the Euro's annoying beyond D 6. The GFS's 6 z has it's own obnoxious rendition, which I mentioned a while ago... I think in general there's enough tele jolt going on mid month to assume ( still ) the warm up early in the week ( next ) is just a reset deal. In fact, the EPS is far less N-S amped comparing the operational run, and has strong corrective fropa already by the end of Tuesday. First it gets warm; then it gets cold; boom.

It is really because we care less about storms bearing snow and wind, ...we care about the modeling whims. This is going to come off as less than entirely rational but this GFS model is infuriating to the frustrating point where I am challenged not to consider the modeling engineers are 'faking it'? It seems they are deliberately putting anti-storm mechanical physical equations in the models, to stop storms from developing in this model. That D9 - 11 00z operational evolution is a perfect example, and I see this model do this over and over and over and over again... It sets the table with big sprawling arctic/polar highs with thick baroclinic instability; then, trundles plenty of vortex mechanics through TX... end up up with a vesper up in New England. I mean, yeah...storms dud some times... But when it deconstructs every f'n stinkin' one of them like 19 times out of 20, it starts to get a bit suspicious. It's like they run the model in a raw form, it creates super nova storms, and instead of fixing the model so that it comes to a 'normal' cyclogenesis result more organically, they zap it with a dimming constant.

This may offer a long sought explanation to a question I never got an answer to, from years ago .,, It was around that time that I started seeing higher tier DBZ during snow events and I wasn’t sure if that had always been the case or were storms suddenly got more severe. I guess I just assumed the technology got more sensitive so that does sort of confirm that. But case in point the morning of the 23rd 1997, there was a massive area 50 to 55 DBZ returns over Eastern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County moving north north east toward us in Middlesex and I thought for sure it was sleet bright banding. 15” to 23” of immediate history in the making

Was that radar type around in December 23, 1997?

After that reset event next week the GFS is sending buckshot opportunities for minoring impact events ... probably wintry in character right out to the end of the run. That's really the over-arcing theme, a winter like mid month - not the intervening warm up (comparatively very brief). Which, happen. It's part of the natural order of things, that even at large scale there is a kind of 'ebb and flow' in patterns. By the way, the event early Friday smacks a bit like that 2002 ( 2003?) Feb 10-ish ( god I suck at dates!) "Little critter that bites" and bit very hard. Who knows if it this one can over-perform ( if at all ) but that one back then was a hugely dismissive 10" 1/4 mi vis Pike halting menace that sent NWS scrambling and reeling to get warnings out that by the time were registered to the public the sun was already come back out. Oops

You can see the two ridge nodes ..one over old Mexico and the other between Florida and Bermuda in the Euro's end frames. That structure is just a weee bit too far west in totality. It would be nicer to have the nadir betwixt the two be more aligned Buffalo's mean longitude, rather than Chi-town or west. As is, that is a prelude to a Apps runner. Perhaps with a labored secondary on D11 that doesn't commit but keeps the warm front from ever getting in here. But that's all D10+ so the chances of that plot extrapolation playing out are laughably dicey. What really sticks out to me is the incredible warm lobe pinched off over Alaska with that -EPO and/or uber amped +PNA ( which ever that is..) on D6. The pattern's completely up-side-downed our side of the hemispheric 850 mb cold. Between Lake Superior and James Bay the model ends with -32 C air in there. Meanwhile if there was any sun at all up in NE Alaska they'd be 60+. Wow.

It's not a cold pattern, either, to be fair. In fact, that's probably better interpreted as 'n/s,' as it is said, or no skill. Code for pointless.. It's weak only in phase 2 with not that much time for momentum exertion to begin with. That alone means it is unlikely exerting much if any forcing on the pattern... and that is definitely even more so, true, as it collapses into that COD region as you noted. The other aspect about the MJO that I guarantee you, the consensus of the greater Met community ambit is not considering: the Hadley Cell is unusually expanded associated with the background GW signal. This is not supposition or speculation; it is empirically noted and papered. But, .. what that means is that it has expanded in latitude, N and S of the tropics into and farther beyond the subtropics... where it amorphously bounderies with the lower Ferrel Cell ( middle ) laitudes in some cases. This changes the planetary mechanics of how the MJO ...and ENSO for that matter, can effective force on the Global circulation - as it pertains to R-waves distribution... A little pricey in words there ..the simple way to say is, the correlations are changing. They have to. That's logic. If a static characteristic of a-b-c source --> teleconnects to x-y-z at a separate location, what happens when the a, b, or c sources is/are no longer static? Yet, from official forecast offices, to seasonal forecasting efforts by ignored and cute enthusiasts of social media and back, there's rarely a turn of phrase conveying much awareness or perhaps even "respect" for that chain of reasoning. But I'm digressing a bit here ... Point is, a feeble wave signature trundling briefly up into lower wave strength range in one phase, only to drowned in the COD, when on-goign, background din of the Global maelstrom makes that like a vesper in the quasar of a black hole, mmm that pretty much means that it is utterly nothing ... most likely Nothing is ideally deterministic in this game, but that's the money line there. CDC's just come back on line with it's teleconnectors... It's the EPO source I typically use... I'm sure the Euro and perhaps the GGEM and UKMET folk put their own variations, and if you pay for them, they'll give the mass fields with a deep and caring proctological examination for an equally handsome pretty sore-butt price. Which I'm not willing to pay for those informatica. The EPO at CDC has a spike in the PNA but ... when the EPO is neggie like that, and then tries to flip positive, that suggests that the flow down stream over North America should actually stretch west to east some in time. Yet, we see the operational runs dealing reverses on that clad advise given yesterday. I wouldn't give up on that though. It may work out with endless cutters.. It may - hence the 'nothing is ideally determinable' in this game. But, I "think" the models are too 'diggy' out west for these last couple of cycles. This did this before this snow storm too... We went through a big warm up signal a couple weeks ago and it really didn't work out too well.

Welp ... 16" total. That ties my personal best/experienced single December event, which includes 1992 16" Lowell, 1997 15" Acton, and 2005 14" Acton... 16" 2019 Ayer ! Though, each storm in that list was unique and unlike the others, and that includes this one. Also, that's "personal experience" with them; some got more or less in each, of course. Something about Dec storms; the common theme is, if your going to push records in this month, it seems it's gotta be a weird event to do it - interesting.

Pretty cool image of the Missouri river cutting through the recent NP snow lay-down https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Plains-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

12z GFS certainly likes the ides of the month... I mentioned this yesterday, our old saying up in my UML days ... "First it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom" ... Seems that series of synoptic charts post D10 sets the table -

mm... it's a clipper with short wave-length governing mechanics moving through a fast hemisphere. I.e., small and 'miss able'...so it may not be sampled - - as of 12z 00 hour it was situated 500+ miles out over the open east Pac in a horrendously fast flow. Good luck

Hopefully ( though a challenge ...) the denizens of social weather-related media and concentrated neurosis ( just kidding relax - ) can put this whole event into perspective and ... heh, wow This is Dec 2 and 3 we are talking about here. I say 18" spot maxes in 1986 from an upstart NJ Model clipper bomb ( which led off a blase season in whole ) back whence... and that was November 11 or 15 ( Will ? ) ... But, in general, having this kind of pervasive coverage of 12+" totals, and even getting the coastal towns some love to boot this early, is pretty fantastic. There's really is no room for grousing if we got anything over climo signaling... I know it doesn't alleviate the unpleasant realization that two towns over might have scored bigger totals... but that will pass. Give it time. This is a pretty fantastic ... If one wants a 'front-loaded' winter, this isn't a bad start... Let's just hope it's not like the Patriot's 8-0 start that is likely to end in disaster. Ha

Very recent rad trends are unilaterally indicating some weakening ... Maine to NH into eastern MA are all dimming brighter returns and shredding is more prevalent. Probably signifies the wind-down is near if not already began.

And that's the way it looks to me exactly ... at this time. I'm not hoping? or doing otherwise ... I'm just trying to be objective based upon knowledge and experience ... balancing in trends. If the large circulation featuring alters I'll be happy to amend these ideas regarding the current mid to late range ... Time will tell.

Yup ... and NWS made that very clear in their discussion prior to the event, that they were taking that philosophy/tact with this thing... Having said that... I don't know about the wisdom in/and public perception of having done so personally - not that you or anyone asked. PR and idiocracy factors don't really align with their level of precision and adherence to time-spans like that. Silly really - No ...the average person doesn't judicially judge these sort of things anywhere close to those internal aspects, ...and actually, the vast majority don't read their tech/reasoning discussions either. They may not like hearing this, BUT, they need to consider how these advisories and warnings are consumed. More so at that end - but that's just imho. NWS does not exist for their own precision - they exist paid for by the public To be fair, those time requirements work much of the time. However, this is/was an unusual circumstance that requires(d) a mutation of those requirements - this was a warning by totality of event scenario, sorry. More so than the other line of reasoning and though it is just my opinion, the PR angle should have been considered like the former. Civility isn't ready nor responsible enough for their precision. Maybe some day...

Ha ha... Kevin could figuratively put his lap top down, stand up...walk out his front door, and down to the end of his street and he'd be out of the storms western periphery and not part it for that 2 minute excursion... Yet it's all, " up to 11.0" this and that on this last heavy band ...

Yeah honestly I don't actually pay much attention to those hyper ala carte model types ... For all conceits and purposes of tech and excruciating computing power, they seem to throw almost as many variances, where just using the global models and smoothing them in mind's eye toward common sense works just as well. But, part of the "don't really use the HRRR" means lack of exposure to that guidance sourcing; so objective fairness requires that I don't actually impugn the model - I'm just saying as such from what I gather from what people post about it. Good and bad... and I'm lazy? ...so I rely on the smoothing above. That said, Will mentioned the HRRR snowing through mid afternoon and that seems to be matching well - that's all I know ...haha

There's a bit of an enhanced plume about to rotate SW out of lower Maine and quickly... Maybe a good inch in that - I'm now 6.5" since this recommenced last evening here in Ayer. Bringing the two day storm total to 15.5" ... HRRR ftw ?

yeah, this band is solid moderate burst ... 14" may go 15" soon for dual event total

Euro cut back on the 850 penetration in latitude, as well as time duration, and I suspect that trend continues. ... This next Lakes cutter is probable ( still ) but the deeper extended ( whether it happens or not exactly like that, notwithstanding...) really more than anything else underscores the previous -EPO or -EPO-like reload idea. Which typically promotes a brief period of ridging and warm intrusion up the eastern seaboard as per climatology as we know. Scott is over stating that effect to be funny troll but he knows what I am saying is true, and unless things turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities ... that period of time is more likely destined to be a transient/lower duration and quite possibly a lower amplitude scenario. Now that I've declared this... things will go ahead and 'turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities' just to spite this idea .. but cross that bridge - Regarding the Lakes cutter ... I still would not be surprised if the warm up ends up being more of a triple point mister with more transient heat pinched S of NYC. I've seen this EPO slosh back mass field two-step scenario too often to know that the warm side of it is often too amplified in most guidance types when peering at it from D5+ but ... meh...we'll see -

Boy the models really nailed that western foist of the surface low toward the Maine coast. You can really get a sense of that happening as we type, both sat and rad looping. I don't think this is going to end very fast in eastern Mass and coastal SE NH given that low needs to move along it's typical curved trajectory ...Fuji Wara style around the mid level vortex. It will probably start weakening, and that may dwindle off the intensity but until that low pivots S of and finally starts slipping E ..we're probably going to be rotating globules of light to moderate snow bursts like this.

I'm curious how everyone did/averaged E of I-495, where last night there was resent if not vitriol regarding the snow total forecasts seemingly not matching the "illusion" of now-cast at the time. I must admit, I too was a little surprised to see a solid new 6" on my wipe board this morning here in Ayer, and I suspect they snowed yet more say Willmington/Essex Co ?? So, those late snow totals forecasts nailed it if so -

the banded nature/shred rad fest that took place yesterday with that moisture starved conveyor is "technically" not part of "round 2" ...just sayn' Some of you did quite well from that interim snow during the afternoon and evening yesterday, along Rt 2 and curving SW in pockets in CT. But round 2 was more so the reconsolidating curved CCB head over the east overnight and this morning. Not that any of that matters... snow is snow -

6" new since ~ 4pm last afternoon in Ayer. 4" of which fell after 11 pm last evening. Which brings the event or dual event total to 14" .. but of course it's more likely 10" out on the yard level with the usual settling and so forth. Presently flurries with occasional light snow bursts. Vis isn't terrible. We appear to be on the western edge of this as everyone red eyed and awake is certainly aware.