Typhoon Tip

So far what I'm seeing is more of a validation for the anticipated(ing) amplitude period mid month ... These individual ideas are all over the place, but that's to be expected at this range.

It was trying at 00z/06z ... I'll look over lunch. But I'm often reading statements like this than I go look and I have no idea what the user thought was so great about it. Haha, you get more faith than that tho - just a little ..

It's certainly painted that way synoptically ... with green not blue, where the grid should have blue

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions. It's enabling in a way... We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming. I find that fascinating. It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating.. Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust -

I dunno ...this looks a snow sounding over Logan 42036969052 02414 113415 39019898

True, but that's a load balancing issue with networking and inherent limitations with internet traffic doing that - one should expect that. This other phenomenon seems to invent/emerge as though on-purpose just to butt bang at precisely the sorest butt time -

Yeah that 00z GGEM was the fun solution for today's date - so far... That's a 24 hour high impact snow and wind coastal on that dreamy solution. And since the flow is happenstance marginally compressible along and < the 35th parallel down there, the slower movement overall can happen - ho man.. Problem is, ...other than this being the GGEM, is that I've seen that modeled like that and then those HC heights correct up in time and then interference kicks in ... and there's your extended modulation

Told ya

Fwiw - https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2913/2019-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-tied-for-second-lowest-on-record/

This is utterly fascinating for us nerds.. This is a real phenomenon known as "arctic ( or polar ) low" .. I've never actually seen a model try this, but boo rah for the GGEM for having the plumbs to give it a "whirl"

No ...because there's a big storm next week. We did a statistical correlation out of frustration/tongue-in-cheek back in college, and found that indeed... there was a tendency for some dipshit to kick the plug out of the wall down at NCEP whenever the pattern looked particularly interesting - ...of course, we're taking liberties there with the "cause" for the delays/outages, but, sufficed it is to say, there is an eerie 'gremlin' there.

Heh, 'cept it wouldn't be "gradient flow," in the sense that it's just circumstantial with some pattern we gotta deal with. Not that you think so...just sayn'. The problem with the heights in the south is a global one. It's vaster and longer than circumstantial to pattern(s). I can refer users/members/readers to lots of formal papers describing the Hadley Cell ballooning and encroaching into the lower Ferrel latitudes. I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former. I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly. The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part. But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. 2001 March being foisted above the M/A and busting a lot of forecasts was a particular operational nightmare that might have been avoided if these markers were noted ( which they were in place ) prior to the big vortex attempt by the models to plumb it through the M/A. It did, but distribution perturbed by the S-SE Hadley expression..etc..etc. It depends also on other factors. None of this precludes storms. That's not the correct read. Its about morphology and in many cases, speed of events as they caught up in a concomitantly faster flow. Although I do believe slow moving juggernauts are rarefying in lieu of middling events in succession, as increasing in tendency. There's two types of ridging over the Gulf and Florida/adjacent SW Atlantic. There is ephemeral ridging that rolls out ahead of deep troughs that are plunging toward TX. These heights may briefly rise, but don't usually have the attending > 35 kt geostrophic wind. The other type is canvased and linked/rooted in Planetary events, and is there at all times. This latter form, is the one that compresses and speeds up the flow as a rest state regardless, and is also an aspect of the swelling Hadley Cell. The other option is just have the damn HC over take our latitudes ( but I wonder if that is geo-physically even possible ..) but then winters are a thing of the past as we know them.

We've had two white thanks givings with accumulation/plowable since 2014 in northern Middlesex, fwiw - or maybe it was one .. But, I recall returning from Va Beach that weekend and there was still snow remaining, I think three years ago.

It does .. that's historic 'looking' relative to calendar. November witch's can be vicious but you don't see those features at this time of year to frequently ... ( the core of that sucker's under 522 dm pasing over 55 F SSTs, and the later delta-T is 16 C between SE of Cape Cod and Worcester.. The thickness ( funny you mentioned 12/05) is right at the packing limit. Which means, upright elevated frontal plains and very proficiently UVM under the best Q-G forcing, ... the surface low well. anyway. But the "attention" part you mention is a bit heightened for me because this thing has a loud tele signal and we discussed this three days ago, that we needed to start looking for systems to emerge in this time frame - well... here we are. It's not as easily dismissed.

In fact, that storm leaves something on the field given the mid level vortex - geezus. I would submit the fact that the model doesn't really have the S/stream system to really collapse the N/stream into ...is why that low - albeit amazing - doesn't max. The mid level d(h) with that much DPVA should be something deeper at the surface.

That's a subsume scenario .. 1978 ... both storms in the Lakes and out here along the SNE coast were SPV fragments that were bumped S by modulation at high latitudes, while some form of weak interloper s/stream impulse timed well. "pretty unlikely" is overstating imho ... but, you are right that among the ways to get to upper tier systems, it's a bit of a delicate stream interaction so by definition is rarer. Again, I'm not opposed to something notable in that time frame. I'm also noting that heights draping Florida have fallen to 582 dm or less, prior to the subsume taking place over top. That tells me the meridional character of the flow may allow this to slow down .. preserving wave mechanics.

The mid month H.A signal is alive and well though -

Not to spin this off into some sociological multi-faceted study that's filtered through a prism of cynicism or anything ... but I don't even know if laziness is the right adjective. There's certainly some of that, but I suspect it's mostly 'conditioning' Put it this way ... in 1980s, there were no such things as word processors that existed outside the human skull. You processed what words you wanted to write, then, you wrote them down on ledgered paper with a pen. That was word processing... Then the 1990s came around PC's were yet another charming attribute since the Industrial Revolution, that foisted onto humanity and forever changed the way in which we interact and do work and everything really. By the time I graduated from college, not only could I produce a ten page paper covering the Gilded Era of United States History 103 in one night, ... it was really built into curriculum expectation. Syllabi began to include lap-tops with word processors... See that change? I see these younger college graduating meteorologist as being wizards at chart sourcing and consuming of prepared graphics, almost like they were taught to do that, much in the way the changes in word processing took place. It's just changes in requirements, and as colleges have a responsibility to set students up with the best position to succeed, they are teaching kids clown charts now - something like that. I guess I just wonder how much of all that is laziness, and how much of that is that the new generation of Mets are being educated and programmed differently.

It's worth it to mention it because when in the weeds of any crisis for that matter, the general human tendency toward histrionic reactionary thinking is primordially driven - in other words, as the individual integrates the society, et al, said society cannot help but react first, then, dust off. Unfortunately, that doesn't lend to seeing the field above the weeds, which is a perspective that happens later, but is one that is needed now. The reality is, there are technologies that can make all these environmental toxicity dilemmas, Earth, Air and Sea a thing of the past. That's incontrovertible ... yet, excuses and rationalism start churning out of the "inability-to-acceptance" engine. And that spin-machine has the advantage in this sorely needed enlightenment battle - they are anchored in the status quo. If people from all walks and ranks of society could be made aware that they really don't have to sacrifice ( that much ...perhaps a little at first) of their current way of life in order for all to achieve the quasi utopic/harmonious coexistence with natural states, ... but they are being blocked from seeing that. It's fascinating "soft conspiracy," and how it is evasively dodging that awareness from even getting a toe-hold. And this soft conspiracy I call it, .. basically when common interests works toward a convergent goal, more so than anything paranoid or orchestrated by fine cigar smoke strata over top posh leathery dens of the cabal, they masterfully make the alternatives scary. You know where the real fear is? The real fear is the owners of big industry ...and next of economic kin peering down the ladder. It's their fear. They fear their gravy boats being emptied by a necessary redress in the the ways and means of a society they've also relied upon ignorance and assumption to exploit. That which they've luxuriously presided over, no longer favors the pot-liquor they'll need to make their gravy. They know that. We really are in some way living the end days of that cinema .. where the opulence realizes it's over, or denies that it must be. That's the infuriating aspect. From A G W, to plastic-ocean paradigms, and blah blah blah ... these are all directly a result of the Industrial Revolution and profligate blithe, all geared together by an ambitions everyone bought into spanning generations. Conned into thinking they, too, could win that American dream... And these are the societies that led the way when the IR occurred; they immediately channeled economic ambition, nothing else. It's not so funny; the proportions are essentially correct. Closed combustion engines and/or the panoply of advancing chemistry ensued zero-gap conclusion: "we are going to make a fortune." It wasn't, we are going to advance medicine in ways that extend human life so long and ubiquitously, we don't need to overpopulate. It wasn't ambitions in science in general, ...discovery truths. You know, I've over heard it expressed that organized religion got in the way of the advancing evolution of society ... I'd say money is just as powerful of a God. Which all that of course took place with zero checks-and-balances - can't have those getting in the way of the mighty dollar. Formulation/projection of ethics in the exploitation of natural resources ( necessary to power the Industrial Revolution ) along the way? That had zero chance of taking place once IR tapped into money-reward-circuitry. I don't even know if this is cynicism toward humanity, either. Honestly, you almost give the page turner generation a pass, because countless generations suffered and died young and tragically through the millennia. Sensing the advantages of the IR, from every day access to basic provisions, to fending off diseases ... and just the gestalt for favoring outlooks in general: it was almost avenging the ghosts of those that never had those advantages. So we leaped, and the party went nuts! These ramification were yet to come, yet be discovered. All there was at the time was improving survival odds. Nature is like that ... it doesn't invent things for the sake of invention, such that we do among our many charms. Nature only emerges out of necessity. What part of the natural setting and Darwinism ever required asking if eating a turkey sandwich when one is starving now, might lead to a some calamity in a year. These so called checks-and-balances, they were always administered by the limitations of the ecology. We come along with these powers of ingenuity, and have really outpaced those limitations. But that's not going to last forever. And once the detrimental discoveries were evidenced and continue to do so, to persist along said detrimental course, I don't know what you call that - "collective sociopathy?" It's both.. There are captains of industry that are completely consumed in self and this mantra that they'll be dead in 100 years so it won't matter - they presently are the ballast of "string puller" movers and shakers, too. They could not be more self-centered and clearly failing baser moral culpability. Yet, because they operate within the confines of the societal norm to do so, they are not perceived that way? That's partial in being the weeds. Then there are those that just don't know any better, because the cause-and-effect of the A in the A G W ...is just too untenable to their comprehension, so it is easier to just rely upon traditional nationalism, toe-the line and listen to the marketing that always gave comfort - that same social force that is put on the captain's cheerleaders and lobbyists, and special interests in general. For the rest of us, we just watch the hands on the Doomsday clock tick closer to midnight, powerless to stop it. Now that humanity is evolved technologically enough ... many of that profligate ways and means used to power the industrial-complex ...and sate the greed-economic engine that generations spanning a time in history got to benefit and live like kings and queens, are no longer necessary. Industry can be motivated by 'green' tech, to the extent that any reliance whatsoever upon the old fossil-fuel model can be so minor that the natural background geological/biological processes of this planet can absorb and make negligible. Yet, we won't do it, or, if we are, that adaptation is most likely too slow. Nope, sate greed first or die - that's the epitaph of Humanity should this "non-sustainability" dictate policy.

See I'm also a little concerned about data sparseness and/or less than idealize physical sounding data making it into these initialization's This is the NAM's 12z ... GFS is the same way. This is not a good source/origin for the runs. This may throw a monkey wrench in matters. Suppose it comes in slightly stronger? Then it may roll out some subtle but all-important, lead s/w ridging that enhances the confluence N of the Lakes to southern Ontario just that crucial amount... Will's front ends up back S of LI again, and then we have our NJ Model low idea coming back in short terms. It's possible... but, either way, that S/W origin is ...heh

Agreed - this seasonal appetizer's limitation is warmth in the BL. For better or worse ... ( usually the latter ) the NAM was beginning to flag problems in that regard yesterday. It may not have the particulars right but, the gist of it corrected a weak but crucial boundary NW. It was supposed to slip through and align ENE along or just S of LI in the runs from a couple days ago when this looked a bit more intriguing for colder solutions. Since, the boundary is now stalling and washing out more along a White Plains to PWM type axis.. .which, ain't going to cut it. Even if the "low"/ANA is flatter, that's still probably not enough. SNE proper gets that cold rain that smells like snow. Which may be the climate course of least regret anyway, as others have noted.. I mean what are folks grousing about... Really, this should be nothing other than grateful we aren't in some dullard extended spirit crushing uninspired boring weather pattern that Novembers are 2nd only to April for sending us through - Hyperbole aside, I still suggest that this could get more amped over these next 30 hours, because as I annotated yesterday ... this is an usual situation where the source for the N/stream is obscure.

I've never seen a seasonal -based tendency product pretty much ever signal a predominating negative North Atlantic Oscillation. I wonder why that is.. I have a lot of science fiction/plausible explanations, but they are as that implies, suppositional. Oh, I'm sure there must've been -NAO seasonal outlooks in the past. But by and large that look above - well, for one, it's really just the PNAP, or "Perennial North American Pattern." Not to be mistaken with the PNA. "Pacific North American," it's the entire years geometric height mean, then averaged over all years. The results features an isohypsotic bulge over the terrain of western North America's Rockies, with a shallowing out east over the remainder of the continent. A PV signature ... Baffin Island (~) does also concomitantly result. History and averages, the PNAP looks a lot like that above. The NAO is a stochastic index ... often demonstrating intraweekly time scale variances. It's very hard to draft up seasonal deviation/expectations because it is [ apparently ] less anchored by global heat-source-sink and R-wave distribution, as much as it is guided up and down in index value by cyclonic traffic. NCEP also admits this readily in their seasonal outlooks. Speculation, but that doesn't lend well to any seasonal outlook seeing a positive or negative bias... I mean that look above certainly looks positive, but look closer. There is a subtle albeit real ridge curvature there toward Greenland. It may be that the NAO is really just a very relative index - I think there is some truth to that. I suspect that the forcing from upstream ...which really starts over eastern Asia/WPO and involves the Pacific eddy as the transitive origin, is all so dominating ... the NAO may be negative or positive relative to that, while not necessarily being defined as positive or negative in any momentary scalar value. That could certainly account for some of the index' obscuring in seasonal outlooks. I wonder if the NAO can really be forecast at all. fascinating - In any case, that look above to me is really only slightly more indicative than "N/S"; though it lands similarly upon the yearly PNAP structure, just in mind's eye ... perhaps with an edge toward amplitude? So call it a modest +PNAP ... maybe that is all that is needed to through a couple historic cold waves and some storms through the circuit.

And the 18z Euro ? ...so I'm trying to do a trace-back to root the N/stream amplitude and I'm finding that 30 hours from now, it will be slicing over top the Alaskan sector ...and then turning SSE toward an eventual border breach near eastern MT by 60 hours. Probably not until during that time span, ... between ~ 30 hours from 18z (like now) and 60 hours from, will we see 'solidification' in the models with a more stable and believable consensus. Prior to that... I have to guess at where in the hell that S/W actually originates; I suspect look to Siberia to find this f'n thing. We don't know what the hell the Russians are going to be sending our way -