Typhoon Tip

Oh god - here we go again... The problem with this dip shit topic is that people can't think 'integral mathematically' about these subject matters - it's either one or the other. It's not: ground too warm = snow doesn't stick It's: ground too warm to allow ALL the snow to stick... . jesus - ...sometimes I fantasize Brian having a mandatory tutorial - like a driver's test for a license... and everyong that joins has to pass. That is question... oh, 6 on the roster of typical reasons to one may want to suck on a f'n exhaust pipe stupid in here. If anyone says the ground it too warm without demonstrating a clear and coherent qualitative assessment along an environmentally aware perspective, demonstrating an actual facility in nature ... or even hot to balance a g-damn checkbook, you can't join the forum until you learn - Of course, that would mean - retroactively - that I'd be kicked to the curve so - LOL

It's interesting so far, the evolution of Paulette in the guidance.. Firstly, they are all undercooked wrt to the system's intensity as of this morning - ...not sure if/how/when that should be modulating anticipations for this thing, ...if so, in interpretation or in future guidance, et al. That said, all guidance save the NAVGEM ( which ...yeah - ), ensue a weakening trend at some point over the next ... nearer term, and then out deeper in the mid range, a holding on Paulette re-intensifies markedly in some models at that. This attenuation followed by restructuring is because Paulette has one of two options: - it either gets picked up by the trough as a steering influencer, and recurves early... which appears less likely - - it doesn't get picked up, and as it slices through underneath the steering/somehow physically evading that influence, that means that it's time passing thru the trough axis becomes a shearing inhibition. It is also possible - in my mind - that the trough is over loaded in the guidance. The Euro cluster seems to almost hint this, as it keeps the cyclone S of really polarward turn, but also seeing the EPS cluster with a surprisingly coherent cyclonic impression in the coarser pressure pattern evolution as it ends up between the 60th and 70th longitude lines at D7 almost argues for less trough inhibition - ie., weaker.

I still would watch the interior coastal plain of the Carolinas up through VA later in the week or weekend, as Invest 94L "sputters" west as an inverted trough... Remaining weak could still wrought havoc as a general transporter of absolute pig PWAT air... Talking top tier supreme loading .. and even ( at minimum ) weakly curved cyclonic mechanics encroaching upon the continental BL resistance down in that vicinity, would probably trigger subtle/quasi CF mechanical feedbacks - namely, an interface to lift that air mass. Yikes. The thing is, that feature may not actually continue to propagate onto the land... but rather might come to a slow down/stall immediately astride the coast down there ( to some varying distance). That could potentially set up excessive rainfall over protracted hours.. More synoptically,.. the anticyclone moving west to east off NE to the N.. intensifies the longshore fetch containing said PWAT anomaly. I haven't checked WPC risk assessment ... would figure, if this is a risk at all they'd be on it - ha, maybe I should. (edit, looks like the don't issue exc rf beyond D3) Also, I mentioned last night that 'beta drift' could be effectively cutting these cyclone entities through the Atlantic prematurely across the pantheon of guidance types. Not unheard of ..this used to always be a mandatory anticipation when looking at any given168 hour, that some ( just spit-ballin' ) 66% of the times, one can correct that position some unknown variant west/left. http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Beta_drift I don't know if the state of the art of recent modeling somehow attones for this effect, but I suspect they don't because as I mentioned late last evening ... we've already seen three system affect the archipelago of PR and up along the EC this season ...albeit weak, and if memory recalls right all of these were hooked seaward when they too were in their extendeds ... I am seeing some models already hinting at nudging these D6 and 7 positions left... ... Namely, the 00z EPS mean is precariously close to a 'key slot' climo track NE of PR toward the SE U.S. out there D8 ish. The operational is a NE outlier comparing. ...of course, then you have the 06z GFS that seems to want to take everything out there and start corkscrewing track guidance into big closed loops almost immediately - useless no matter what ...

Bingo! no one argued for lower ACE anomaly in the context of climate comparison - ..The relative facet was/is an easy concept to have evaded along the way, and these threads being sometimes many multiples of 10's in pages in length doesn't really draw one's eagerness to plumb back with editorial focus huh. Understandable ... Also, I might add that there is a seasonal prediction interpretation --> expectation involved. When these 'officiate' offices and agencies put up big time top 20 yearly numbers or more, amidst a culture and awareness pathos already in place that is both based upon recent tragedies in the last 10 years, but also the popularization of dystopian natural cinema that we are entertaining ourselves with ( heh!) ...all this sort of hyper anticipates the hurricane season and people are scratching heads now that we are deepening into September during a sputtering year that isn't behaving that way - ACE is a way to substantiate using empirical values ... It's one thing for farmer-john/jane Meteorologists to come onboard and impugn a season based upon his/her 'impression' of the way things are going.. It obviously takes on a bit more substantive value if we have some form of testing discipline that is at least vetted and proven 'sounding' - like Accumulated Cyclone Energy as an index/measure. blah blah... In my own honesty ...I was farmer-john ing it a few weeks ago when I first opined that it "seemed" up to that point in time, like this season was not presenting a very aggressive "development curve" - which at the time meant, ...specifically, individual cyclone prospects were all doing fake out convective sustaining... then 6 or 12 hours later, poof! gone, with naked swirls... all the way across the Basin. I have been citing and theorizing various plausible explanations for that.... for like 6 weeks off and on... but, it was also all based upon my impression. Then, I read a post two weeks ago that contained the abbreviation 'ACE' and went ...well, yeah - now it's showing up as a low anomaly RELATIVE to the case loading. Which ...going back to the impression method... we have not had a high count of upper echelon stemwinders out there this year either. That's the point... folks scrape at it though, perhaps unconsciously so ..kind of like they really want and need that addictive stimulus fix of drama and will turn to stricter evals of phrases to pull crack nuggets that might cover some of the gap between their desire and a banal reality they face. Lol - over stating some but it's fun poke fun - kidding.

There’s a sneaky nasty Hydro scenario setting up possibly for the interior coastal plain from the Carolinas up to Virginia day 4 possibly 5 ... - also keep in mind that the models evolving an inverted trough overtopped with PWAT toward the US Eastern seaboard void of a TC - not sure what the reticence is on the part of the models to close off a circulation in there; there’s ample upper oceanic heat content and it appears that there’s anticyclonic potential over top too. If that region does clothes off it may evolve deeper than these models are disappearing, which would change the entire landscape (obviously) of what impacts the eastern seaboard in fairly short order - in other words models may not have a strong enough system based on what they’re seeing now in the initializations. - also beta drift is being correcting incrementally as Paulette’s left ... Previous systems affecting eastern seaboard this year however weak notwithstanding also needed this leftward correction passing into the middle range ...bear that in mind. It doesn’t mean these will per se but there is a seasonal precedence to over anticipate north turns in models possibly attributed beta drift and also possibly attributed to the models trying to over dig troughs into the Atlantic basin

We did have that big event early January in ‘86 ‘SYZYGY’ storm because it coincided with that particular celestial event. We had 18” in Acton .. seemed to favor Middlesex and eastern Worcester Co for those bigger numbers ... 9” to15” otherwise. It was an impressive storm but it left some on the table because it lasted almost 30 hours yet it didn’t put down tremendously huge snow totals for the duration. I was in Rockport mass having decided to go to the coast to watch the surf and it was very impressive in that regard ... foisting rocks onto shore roads with bomb like sea foam explosions rising over roof tops. Course only 1 to 3 inches fell out there but the drama of the sea was a calculated trade off

Well.. yeah, there's that too - there's no discounting the hyperbole of the internet 'water cooler ' ... no. In my defense, I reiterate: I don't spend as much time engaged. I'm likely less privy to who is saying what and when - nor the tenor of a given threads for that matter much of the time. Which I've managed to start my fair share of electronic fights by bowling into rooms insensitively plenty in the past lol. Anywho, if anyone said that ( bold ) their statement is either just that, hyperbolic, or... wrong, pick. But the season's ACE is low relative to counts - that much cannot be disputed and is non-subjective. Should that change because of a diet of bombs ensuing ... fine - different reality if and when. The other thing - you know, we joke about it but it does perhaps own ... I dunno, call it 10% of the frequency; systemically NHC et al really are more sensitive in the designation due to sophistication of monitoring technologies. More so than even 10 years ago ...which in turn was more sensitive to 10 years prior to then and on and so on. Not only that, I've noticed a definitive tendency by NHC to hold back even invests based upon whatever the models are developing as a recent practice ..beginning ~ 5 years ago. The models are in fact improved enough to hone these areas of interest enough to "trust" them in canvased sense - but that's probably honing observation netting over those regions to where convention in designation being more sophisticated as it is, will tend to ferret cyclones more proficiently. Just something to keep in mind when 'subjectively gauging' the present era seasons. It's a digression ... but, it's also interesting to consider "how many" TC were there really in 1944 ( say...)... or 1938 ... or 1876 ...

Yeah, like I 'implied' in that missive ... depends what region one hails their claims from ... I know from having lived and suffered the vicissitudes of SNE's ( interior-east) climate from 1982 to 1986 ... this regional experience consisted of repeating seasons characterized as cold refreeze over brick Earth --> warm up rain --> frigid cementing... over and over unrelenting, the vast majority ... with low specific snow precip type events. We've had warmer temperature seasons with larger snow aggregation. But like you say, it may have been better in NNE- I don't recall those winters specifically being notorious at either individual event or seasonal scope and scale up that way. But that could be wrong.

I don't languish on this social media platform like it's my primary outlet for human contact or anything ... so taken with the appropriate value: What or who was denying the significance of any impact, in any scope, objective or subjective? Where are you getting that ? Not trying to be a dink - just curious.. Everyone with modicum of intelligent perspective knows that ACE, and 'death,' part company and in fact, don't bare any physical relationship other than pure coincidence. So asking what's 'subjective' anything with regard to that relationships is logically absurd to begin with - it's probably an encouraging sign that no one has. 1992, Andrew ...took place in a very low ACE year - yet ... hello - And what does that mean, '...Normal ACE ...with 15 names storms ... eye-popping for the wrong reason' ? Nothing is eye-popping, that's an interpretation spike. It's about siting, fairly and based upon real numbers, weak anomaly .. subsequently offering plausible discussion points as to why. I agree that the season isn't over and that 'now through oct...' blah blah, but the commentary has clearly and coherently been by context, speaking in turns of phrase about 'so far' anyway. If the season ended now... it's banal and uninspired, but it would be an impression based upon empirical data that colors that illustration - not just subjectivity based upon imagination. What reasoning is wrong - ... I guess what it kinda comes down too is that some "subjectivity" has more realistic roots, and some want to kite away in imaginary winds of consciousness LOL

Not to belittle your anxiety for having suffered 2014, January through spring that year ... because if anything, apriori experience should lend to empathy for your plight. I know what it is like to pass through painfully less then entertaining eras as a winter weather enthusiast - That said, try doing that uncanny thing from 1982 to 1987 ... always - Forgive me if I don't know how old you are, but that is getting into the 30's of years ago so you may have been too young to remember ... Of course there is a regional variance/relativity but I don't think the 1980s were particularly good for NNE either. Whether it is you, or other folks suffering single seasons or even weeks contained within those that seem so horribly unjust .. as though metaphysically attacking that which ( neurotically ) we depend upon for endorphin highs ( haha ) .. I always push a tongue into cheek. The difference between suffering the breadth of 1980s compared to .. whatever injustice it is they are describing, is like a guy that just spent a night in County lecturing Auschwitz survivors about the conditions of their prison cell.

Yeah you and I have been posting about this limping cyclone tendency, since the season began really. There's been some( I think shear tendencies ) oddities working to mitigating 'developmental acceleration' in general, at other times... SAL perhaps? But peculiar that when it's not one, its the other. And they are tag-teaming their assault, too lol. You know like in the winter time, you get into these rich-get-richer scenarios and it seems like it can't not snow? .. then of course, we get into 10 years where it never does but that's a different lament. Trend in luck is frustrating... it argues that NCEP and NASA should release a press bulletin telling everyone to lower their guard and make fun of the gods ... because they're out to f over those seeking entertainment on purpose so obsessively, regular civility won't have to worry about actually getting impacted. Oh wait...Laura - The shear has been interesting - I mean, ..not so much for those seeking 'cane cinema of course. It's all been easterly shear at mid and upper troposphere. Like the whole slab of the tropical atmosphere between 700 and the 300 mb levels has been plagued in a deep easterly f'um jet stream blasting from Libya to the Leewards. Whether it's wind anomalies relaying into dry air reasons and back, we haven't really seen a system not be impeded. Despite the two tropical depressions we now see as of this early morning out there in the MDR, even these have taken quite a foot-tapping while to structure, compared to other aggressive 'seasonal complexions' in the past where you didn't dare send up a shower tower without denuding a island of its inhabitants. This lead one, TD 17 ... has been a torn open ravioli out there for four days, at time spent with cyclone curved features. Per close up visible/WV channels as there did appear to be shear quite strong from the east, with anvil shreds ripping away at some 50 kt! It's alleviated now though so we'll see if this one goes.

TD

Still sputtering...

Yeah but it won’t stick because the ground .., right

Sputtering continues ...

Not to be a dink but I’m pretty sure all those months of winter that year were among the top 10 warmest months in global history ... Something disproportionate like that though Jesus it’s been this way ..this continental folding really is favoring us in North America particularly in that ORD to Boston band we are like this permanent colder offset node because of increased tucking going on at very large super synoptic scales - You have to think Kelvin-Hemholdts waves almost like an analog but blown up really really large

Still seems hard to believe the Euro is going to be successful in defeating the seasonal trend of sputtering... time will tell

You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia now I wasn’t paying attention and 2013 or 2015 for that matter back east here… But I don’t know if those were actually cross polar constructs and not just occasional dumps over the Alaskan sector out of a favorable EPO

Interesting... The Euro model versus the seasonal constant 'sputtering' trend like cars with blown -head gaskets limping into rest stops.. This is the most active yet abortion season ever... No one likely keeps track of that particular statistic: number of TDs and TS' relative to the mayhem people want to see them evolve into. Or is there? That would be neat number... .Like hypothetically, 1949 there were 34 TDs and 1 hurricane. In the year 2029, there were 20 hurricane and 20 TDS which became the former being the impetus. Those number can be easily inferred, sure,... but then rank piece of shit seasons in terms of number piece of shit - and this one is getting high on that shit list by the way... This season just can't get the upper ends and developmental 'tendency' underway. There's something going on with the ambient tropical sounding out there in the MDR ... something that is occurring beneath the observations of the standard monitoring, too... SAL? mm... perhaps some, but not really the whole gum in the engine.. If we look here, http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= ... one may be inclined to suggest that is so, but only because these hot colors are built into the 'omg' circuitry of human experience... Fact of the matter is, we have seen plenty of fiery orange bands fisting across the Basin from off Africa in seasons of lore where category hurricane cut their way right across the Basin. I don't like the comparison because it does not seem to be so singularly instrumentally mitigating alone... Plus, the present MDR itself ..it's hard to know if SAL was 'once there' but has been fragmented by cloud production mixing it out, or if it those fragments were being pulled into zygote circulation coverage of the individual entities - which is which... And additionally to that, these entities are still sputtering outside that region...clear toward the Americas ...where the SAL is attenuated substantially.. So, I'm just not convinced SAL is the reason. Scott mentioned a month ago there were pockets of 850 mb dry air out there - I don't know if he meant that in the context of 'missing from initialization' ... Could be, because I don't believe MDR and adjacent regions really have a very dense physically realized observation net feeding the grids ... satellite conceit or not. I don't know... if there's a network of dingies out there with grad-students proving their medal by bravely launching balloons, so be it... Be that as it may, every system is belated and/or being retarded for systemic integrity at all times though... That sort of make the 850 plume theory less than likely to me - though it could certainly still be a factor. Or, maybe it is a cocktail of things like this... I don't believe it is SST or oceanic heat content/integral limiting though... We're on the ass end of 20 years of persistent positive anomalies pretty much everywhere... I almost wonder if the theta-e gradient in the vertical sounding between 700 mb and 200 mb of the tropospheric heights are wacky ... Tropical thermodynamics requires a conditional instability based upon dry air above ... It would be counter-intuitive as people are probably hugely used to hearing 'dry air inhibition' of some form or another in every context there is known to atmospheric dynamics. ... but, the way the tropical cyclone model works is that you have a hot rich TD flowing into the bottom ...rising and mixing in dry air above 700 mb...which cools the column internally and creates its own instability/ pseudo-lapse rate. What if there is too much theta-e above the 700 mb level? not likely... In the end it's probably just shear.. maybe. I have noticed the easterly component at mid and upper turret depths has "seemed" to tilt/stress system toward the west over a lot of these little guys/girls. In a general sense/scope, the horizontal mass transport at upper levels has to exceed the vertical depth in a pure geometric scaling for TC to develop.. If upper machinery cannot evacuate the incoming air.. .that's the ball -game

Probably would help if the environmental science ambit would f'n define the difference between drought and transient drought-like conditions ...with actual terminology. Like, call the latter something ...anything, other than drought and reserve the word drought for well depletion ... reservoir fish flopping and a shit flies. This level 1 drought ...level 4 drought shit ...? Obviously proves too complex for this general public to handle graphic "implication" and consumption ... they should save that for their internal offices and keep just have two categories for the proletariat/provincials called either brown-lawn, or actual drought. We've had 99 brown lawns and 1 drought in the past 500 years...kidding. The other option is never respond or engage in any discussion - perhaps discipline and choice - that begins with those US D M product suite graphics ..or has the words "dry" or 'drought' period... Obviously though, everyone in here is in here because they want to either be entertained by dramatic weather ...but for some, as pathetic as it sounds ( and is true ) they are too awkward to maintain a social life that is truly interactive... Now that we are in a forced distancing Pandemic thing, which is really a form of instinct/group psychology at populations scales stopping over-abundance therein, by unconsciously manifesting as a practicum (get it? can't f* and reproduce from 6 feet away - well, I can ...but most dudes can't)... haha... so for some it's like they "have to" read nonsense... or may feel that way.

Just based upon the veneer of this product, the present Atlantic SST anom distribution has lost it's tripole. For those less aware ... tripolar distribution of anomalies is correlated with -NAO ... The correlation is not 1::1 of course... there are seasons where the correlation pops more or less coherently - last year may be one of those where/when there yet tripolar look vs the NAO were distracting. But, this particular product up there appears really about as uniform NOT tripolar as I can recall the Basin ever getting its state into - which is interesting as an aside, because as of spring there still was tripole evidenced. One would not think summer season would be conducive to wind stressing though - the primary SST pooling mechanism. Be that as it may, it is important to understand that second "S" in the abbreviation stands for "surface"( in SST). I've always been a bit sideways looking when SST-reliance correlates with atmospheric modes. Because, I'm not even sure what that means in absolute sense: surface. 6 ft of buoy dipstick depth? I'm not sure what is measured as 'surface' in the field/industry. But my point is, beneath the "surface" there can be strata where there's like a 'thermal momentum' lagging or perhaps more indicative of the real state of the system ... masked by transient looks and so forth. Then, a change in the mechanical pattern of sea stressing by circulation/seasonal modulation exposes a different truth. We actually see this in the PDO quite frequently ...where instra seasonal ( or even time lengths of seasonal for that matter ) can cause interruptions in an otherwise smooth ~ 30 year periodicity of (+)(-) Pacific -Decadal -Oscillation. The Atlantic seems also to respond faster to short duration modulating wind patterns - which in a pure ballast sense of it probably makes sense considering it's a smaller mass. Does the class now fully realize the goal of a splitting migraine ? Tripolar was more prevalently as of this recent spring, but given Jerry's post, at least as far as the surface goes the season appears to have abolished. We'll have to see as autumn reigns in a new regime of sea stressing, if this new look doesn't prove superficial. Oh..and, tripolar means there's a more obvious cool band intervening two warm bands, all three extending between the continents - Having said all that... I have seen more snow and cold here in NE during neutral positive NAO, since the aggrandized marketing campaign over the NAO took place in the late 1980s through the mid 1990s when it's popularity became so extreme it actually changed the genetics that scaffolds human brain neuro-physiology so profoundly that we are in fact a new species incapable of seeing anything else in reality as having a separate physics. In fact, if the world fails to negotiate a mid-east peace treaty after 5,000 years of pathos heredity in that region of the world, goddamn that motherf'n NAO! So with that, I think it will take decades to prove that the NAO is not what everyone thinks it is - and I've actually been hammering this point for 15 years... yet, people still don't even understand how to use it. Which makes much of this missive kind of moot then, huh - What I also find interesting is that this historic super-position of solar minima curves ...that in theory superimposed makes this minimum extra super dooper minimum... should have a demonstrative PDO and AMO correlation - as the solar curve has a very convincing correlation coefficients with these oceanic teleconnectors - I think tripolar is actually the correlation with solar minimum .. this above may in fact be odd relative to that assumption.

Kalamazoo by chance geography seemed to always have brilliant white lake effect CB band NE of the city ... turn around and another band dark gray passing SW Training snow bands aligned such that kz was splitting the goal post. The best lake affect snow at that city’s location was when the air mass got super cold and everybody ended up in that kind of misting low vis crystal froth within an entire radar scope having tiny corpuscular nodes amid a level one green smear. 15F

Just cursory eval of this coarser version at PSU but holy shit ... Look at this gradient worthy of late March on the 12z Euro for D7!

two comments: - reminds me of the blitz creige in 1995 when there was like 5 names storms concurrent at one point. - what leaps out more to me than those acne blemishes down in the tropics is the shocking cold thickness layout across all of the eastern Canadian shield... I mean, that's not like a severed 850 mb plume there ...that's hemispherically footed absurd anomaly stuff - wtf... Looks like the destiny of this current GFS is going to inherit the eye-color of the present version's seasonal forgetfulness -

What a strange pattern ... all guidance agreeing too - That full-latitude ... hugely uncharacteristically coherent planetary wave structure for early September ( D's 6/7 to 10 ) draped ( actually 'raging' is more like it) from the eastern/NE Pacific to the eastern Canadian shield, while simultaneously there is a stacking hypsometric height depths towering over 600 dm E of Cape Cod like that ? That's ..I dunno, I've never seen that. For one thing, that should set up one helluva a Bahama suck fest right up the coast... Talking powerful conveyor pattern... Should there be any kind of TC nearing the climo traffic routing ESE of the archipelago down there, it's going to end up over Montreal in 24 hours... Assuming those excessive synoptic circumstantial anomalies actually set up that way - ... But that is a weird WAR structure... it's like why isn't that settling S into the Bermuda position.. fascinating. I almost get the wild notion that the season is attempting to flip prematurely .. possibly because of two reasons: The solar nadir is statistically correlated strongly to blocking; the excessive integrated tropospheric wind velocities are generating unsually early R-Wave structures. *BUT* ...while that is happening, the HC is usually large in keeping with measure empirical data... so, the models are attempting to structure these events over top - ... hey, it's a wild notion. But it fascinating to consider.