Typhoon Tip

Interesting immediate observation there for me is that the 850 mb is cold ... but not representing - Imagining if that were Feb 2, and that 500 mb would have and under riding 850mb -15 to even -20 C isotherm down Worcester latitude, so it's like negotiating with the sun - haha... I dunno.. .I'm pretty high confident for an obnoxious cold shot into May there, ...probably a hard freeze/damage to orchard trees even... but I don't know if needs to be all that. Hell, history happens though, too. We'll see. Plenty of time.

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose .... with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.

Precisely ...glad you picked up on the implicit idea of 'counter-intuitive' ... Anyway, it's long been theorized that this isn't an even march. Some places do counter the mean overall, ...we just may be one of those over eastern N/A There's also that bag of tricks surrounding the Atlantic ( and probably might be somewhat applicable to the Pacific too ) thermo-haline cycling and surface densification breakdown causing the suppression of the G-string ... ( that's one warming we we actually want! ) Jokes aside, I'm sure you are familiar, but with the Lab current and NW Europe getting cold when the rest of the world heats for a century ... I don't think this is that...no, but it's just along that same idea that there are offset regions/phenomenon -

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now.. Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... well... here we are. Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag? It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be.

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6... That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore. It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream... 2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here. That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart. Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather: 48/41 NE wind and rain sheets. I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was crime against humanity by God- him/herself... This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer.

Why - what do you think you are looking at here ? That's not snowing anywhere around here, just in case ... But perhaps your motivation is just to keep things cold ...if so, maybe... but, consider tomorrow's synopsis: 12z NAM's FOUS profile suggest it's likely +5C aoa 850 mb. That was +1C three days ago, then...steadily warmed in every guidance cycle since. That is a typical behavior at this time of year in model behavior/bias, where/when guidance has to do that ...almost like catching up to the season as bush observation. Folks of the anti warm season, negative S.A.D. ilk, you probably might wanna keep this facet in mind when gawking over cold outlooks, that they will tend to modify warm getting nearer. I also recommend backing off the scale and degree of the January in May pattern the Euro's selling...It's trying to back off already, by showing more retrograde motion with the D8 -10 SPV over the Canadian shield; last run it attempted to nestle that 516 DM heights to almost Lake Superior on May 8th - heh, no problem... without a super volcano or a celestial impact event? unlikely... In the meantime, at least for those of us out here in the majority we can enjoy a fine weekend. Tomorrow looks like utopia if these NAM numbers pan out. NW wind veering W over the course of the afternoon, while lightening toward 10 knots flag wobbling... zero clouds, and low humidity, under those 850 mb thermal plumb described above, is probably going to bust MOS and send the temperature toward or exceeding 70 as a slam dunk ... Hovering over driveways and parking lots probably a 75 F ... has that classic spring look of NWS sites 68 F but it is actually warmer where civility lurks.

Well .. in defense of that it’s not like we’ve having trouble lowering eastern Canadian heights, either... It’s like there’s that tendency, then adding to it is reenforcing the Euro tendency. EPS day 6 + is usually tamer and more sensible. Right. I just have not seen one Euro vortex work out since like 3 upgrades ago

Yeah...I'd like to see the Euro pull off a -7 SD vortex there .... oh, wait - day 9 go wonder It's comical watching it take a cumulus cloud over southern Manitoba D5.5 and turns it into west Atlantic bomb by the end of the run. Not sure why this tendency to over-amp anything in the flow D6 to 10 isn't settling in ... yet folks keep using it to make points. haha.

Btw...did anyone else notice this? Tomorrow could be interesting in a nerdy way, between 2 and 8 pm. Both the Euro and NAM show a very deep dry slot between 850 and 500+ MB levels opening and typically when veering the winds from SSE to SW like that ( both guidance), the cloud products will over cake. So partial clearly sweeping across the area, and with LI's regionally in the -2 to +2 range. We are in May keep in mind ...and 2 to 5 pm sun may just add a touch of instability. The air could be 62/57 like with whisky towers ... strange look there a bit. Not summer or nothing but homage-like.

You can see the fight though ... I still maintain that the 850 mb thermal layout relaxed the cold complexion quite a bit terminating 2 or 3 days back when that last meandering cool event finally gobbled up the unusual chill plume lingering south of 40 N and whirled/terminated it out into the Maritimes. What we are left with ( unfortunately .. do to other timings) is a milder troposphere unrealized at the surface - but it is a warmer total depth. It is psychologically too easy to chastise and tenor dour when we are on the N side of an impossibly slow moving warm front today, stuck in the mid 40s and raining. But Saturday ( if you believe this NAM solution, and I do, because it matches the Euro reasonably well from 00z ) will show that warmer potential... Dawn-ish the skies are clear and mid morning d-slope dandy flow is established under 850 mbs of +2 to +3 C ... mid day being lazed by a May sun angle. 12z NAM MOS puts up 64 at KFIT but I gotta think if that synopsis plays out they should bust by four ...say 68 F. KASH ..etc... over achievers over decks, patios, front-yards and driveways - and probably 73 too if the wind were to drop off. Either way, it's not the same troposphere as last week. Sunday clouds contamination otherwise probably warmer. First time we have a shot at stringing two days of that sort of feel ... Just an op-ed perspective: My own expectations for April's are set pretty low to begin with. "...Is the cruelest month" .. for a reason It is, per my own experience, exceedingly rare to string decent days together during this cursed annual journey through seasonal lag that defines the NE climate. The seasonal lag stuff is actually being augmented further by CC too, for complex balancing reasons which we won't get into.. But, sufficed it is to say if however counter-intuitive, this present era "stage" of the warming world atmosphere means super-synoptic scaled 'tucking' over eastern north america ... and that means we have a built in butt-bone for warm enthusiasts from March 20 to June 10 every year. Doesn't mean - as usual - conditions will always suck,... but it does mean a relentless diet of Kevin installation futility posts during that time.. heh. It's like 'white men can't jump'? They can, they just have to work extra hard to do it - that's our spring. We can get balmy but it's harder. We have a long way to go before this miserable spring gets anywhere close to the rectal plaque that was May of 2005 - not even in the same apoplectic universe as that. Lastly, these cold regimed extended frames have been routinely modulated milder heading into the mid terms so I'm less impressed with digging up ensemble cold members and pretending it makes the -(SAD) 10% really unhappy to see that. ha!

No ...that Boston number has it's value - but one has to be a meteorologist to understand why ..so - It was 62 setting out on that 25 mi ride; hit the breeze boundary and finished in 48 F and it was brutal !! We're 30 miles inland as the crow flies. I knew there was risk of that dense cold marine boundary layer rollin in but the gamble didn't pay off - and it wasn't a very good ride because of it. To cold for the gear I was in -

Yeah that event was horribly handled by the GFS of the time. There's been a upgrade since ... Recall, it was trying to flag 111 F, 2-meter temperature(s) at Bedford Mass ...run after run, but with DPs of just 60 F... So, 111/60 ... Pheonix in Boston? No problem - That version of the GFS of that time was a particularly egregious embarrassment by NOAA... It almost seemed more than figuratively as though they just f'ed up and left out the lower level thermodynamic equations when they modular snapped that puppy together - and of course ... buried the fact that they did by ignoring the issue and not drawing attention to the mistake or some diversion of strategy..haha. But in the lower 100 to 200 mbs of the troposphere - quite plausibly related to it's bad theta-e management/physics. It also had that nor'easter earlier that March ...remember that? 2" to 3" of 6-hourly QPF with a DP spread of 8 F ( 39/31). That lent many to think it was missing a blue bomb potential if correcting toward wet-bulb. So, there was bated hope ... oops. What happens? OH, we wet bulbed ... to 35/34 with 2" to 3" of rain -- wah wah wahhhh... Oh if one were nerdy enough to look cat paws. That's part of the 'emergent butt-bang' mystique, too. I mean, the model is wrong, and we still rained - Anyway, that GFS was a joke... Not sure if this present version is any better with those thermodynamics in the boundary layer. Both versions have a 'stretching' /longitude bias in the mid levels that's pretty demonstrable at all times, ... heredity it has gained from the last version, which also did that progressivity thing even worse. So it may be incrementally improved, who knows... But in any/all these cases, that heat dome from that big ridge event that early July was still verifying less. Even at 95/76 (76 might be pricey... was it less?), that was under cooked by some ... so as far as as the synergy abstraction, it was both a failed historic ridge because of the weird nodal-hemispheric cool sink, while still managing to be an inferno - which perhaps belies the former... interesting.

I get the humor ... but you know, there is a kind of 'emergence tendency' ? It's a bit abstract as a concept, but the 'gestalt' : the synergistic product that cannot really be defined by individual component analysis, but when they operate together, you get winning or losing streaks. In either streak, the contribution seems to be unchanging, yet for some reason, the results flop positive or negative ... notwithstanding observation biases and all that rigor - We've been in losing streak for cold and snow enthusiasts, period. We've had leading indicators that just flat out failed. And, some of the indicators themselves also failed - which makes it 'uniquely failing' - it's as though insidious like some agency is attempting to deliberately lead down primrose paths only to prove deceptive - haha. Seriously though, we've had times in our lives when the opposite for cold and snow enthusiasm ...where we couldn't lose. Every perturbation physically identifiable upstream in the hemisphere's greater circulation eddy just found a way to delay office and school openings. We don't question the success times with quite the same zeal, I can imagine. Interesting. But, this is also interesting to me because I feel we've been getting stolen summers too? This has gone on since 2015's big February of lore and fact. We had a big historic heat dome two summers ago that frankly didn't verify anywhere close to what was modeled - 95/76 is nothing to shake a stick at but... 103/67 it was not. Maybe the DP/theta-e increases associated with CC and storing > WV absorbed some of the heat... who knows...But, every other heat chance has been less than that, and/or failing to materialize to the point of modeled... And there is some truth to the behavior - regardless of cause - where dimmed summers relay into early cool snaps that can't seem to parlay into winter proper. I was discussing this 'seasonal lag' effect with Mets unaffiliated with this social media and there is an agreed sentiment... the expanding HC may be why winters are being odd... Where in the summer, there is lingering tendencies to hold more ridging in the NE Pac and that is causing a counter mass balanced tendency over eastern N/A ( spread out in the longer term mean ) to lower heights just enough to keep us out of contention as a 'hot-spot' in the on-going month-to-month 'state of the climate' releases by NASA and forth. We are above normal more than not, just 'not as' much so as our synergistic result of these seasonal lag effects - supposition but it's rooted theoretically.

actually agree with this in principle... I've been trying to intimate the same in the terminating April thread - that we sort of turned the seasonal page this last week. Ending with this current system pulling away, the 850 mb thermal layout is really relaxed and > 0C S of the 45 N ... Granted the Euro attempts to flood that back in D7; I'm willing to put money down that is typically lowering heights to prodigiously in it's D7-10 - that model's going to be tough to use for sniffing out heat waves at longer leads. GFS too ...actually. Both models abolish domes for different reasons. The euro tends to take any day 5 or 6 cumulus cloud it sees over eastern Montana ...and uses it to carve out a magnificent eastern trough. While the GFS has a perpetual rasp always grinding ridge arcs flat... Either bias mutes warm getting to the 40th parallel. The Euro may actually over amplify ridges, too - - but we have admittedly not really given it that opportunity with this weird cold at least excuse imaginable pattern we've been in this recent 30 days. It's been the perfect storm of uninspired annoying weather. Overly cold and cyclonically tasty in the D8 never had a chance of verifying cold enough for a late snow ...while keeping foliage dormant because it's actually too cool to trigger green-up. Oh, it's smattering now....sure, but last year and this year, these cold April's back to back, are noticeably late here along Rt 2 compared to the previous 3 springs... 2015 was the last belated spring ... Probably average butt-bangin' for this cursed geographic region of the planet and it's atmosphere - I'll tell ya I'm living in the wrong environment after March 15 ... I'm checked out by that date, and about 2/3rds of all springs, that is when the cold checks in because of this maddening seasonal lag we've been getting more and more of because of apparent CC

Pattern may look like horse shit for whatever personal reason in the models looking into the mid/ext range but there is a clear tendency to moderate the 850 thermal layout. In fact the current system is pretty much the coolest event through at least a seven. So probably cool and wet or mild, as opposed to cold and wet or faux mild in sunny nooks ...I don’t believe those Canadian and euro runs out there towards the end are going to be correct with that because they look typically over amplifying in that range

We’ve actually been in the snow surplus for the better part of 20 to 25 years… I mean if it’s snow we’re talking about. It’s hard to say because the climate is based on 30, 200 .. 300 yr means, and as each data site gets expanded it might try to elucidate a different normal. But I think since 1900, based on that average we have definitely been living a charmed life forever winter enthusiasts. It makes putrescent years that much worse…. I grew up in the 1980s-as I date myself lol. But uh ... I think five or six of those years of that decade we’re kind a like this last winter season; although this is not a statement statistical comparison, just by value of having to endure them. We were used to it in the ‘80s. The 1990s rolled around ..,after I think 1991 .. we started handing out bombs and yardstick storms like Pezz dispensing. ‘99 was a bad winter and there’s been some sprinkled along the way in between obviously 2012 sucked ... this one. By and large I think it’s been the opposite of the 1980s where perhaps 6 out of 10 have been outstanding have been better than average since 1992.

May be better up your way in Maine... If that happens in the day-light hours of Tuesday with that -2 to marginal appeal, it's not doing much down this way - we'll see the snow level a few hundred fee up while a couple bigger aggs get down..Those fields have nice geometry and form with that cyclonic wrap... but are not deep/amped enough for nearing May post sun-up... we'll see. interesting -

everything I mentioned/concerned for this thing is happening ...creeping, it's slowly transformative toward a typical cat paw cold rain elevation bore.. It's typically solar mangled normalizing in the closing/modeling as it nears we see in spring ... Overly conserved baroclinic physics at this time of year, in the model complexion in mid ranges, tends to do this and systems get shredded when short termed. Unless the system is above a certain magnitude of SD kinematics ... May 77 or some April systems of yore...etc... which this one does not possess in my opinion. As I stated, it is too open and stretching/progressive, so a marginal atmosphere needs the opposite to happen - it needs to be slowing down with height falls once we get passed ( really ) March 20th... It'll snow somewhere...but that idea of blue cake for more pervasive entertainment was probably more of a red herring -

Delayed but not denied ? An interesting pulse in the atmosphere is evident on hi res vis as it is passing SW to NE through the area; the sun is starting to erode the edges but this wave impulse seems to be accelerating that erosion process. Right behind it deforms this stagnated cloud bank along and east of the cordillera. The preponderance of this morning cloud ceiling was not very well-modeled to be in here to begin with, and it's stolen a couple/few hours of morning sun, but given the trends we should have the open sky appeal ..noon or so. Days are getting long. It's 52 here despite ..and if/when the sun opens, d-slope flow should pop the low 60s. Not bad ... If we can couch days like this between yesterday's putrescence, and Monday evening blue-ball spring snow fake-out .. it almost makes it tolerable.

Saw that .. the one thing this god-awful spring hasn't given us is a stream topper and near-by ball park submerger ...where the green trash can's top 6 inches sticks out of the water and ducks swim by 2nd base...

Probably bullshit though I mean I don’t know if the Euro at 12z was gonna be that wrong this close .,,could be… I mean it is a marginal scenario and that requires a really discrete analysis even for those models

I’m not at that party sorry - you got that wrong. That 18z Nam may not be an accident - it came in warmer. That was warned and should be fascinating oh wait

probably have to get that over more than -3 SD for those Kuchy snow charts to have a chance... else, half that, gone by 5 pm is the typical climo at < that 1,000 K els just sayn' - but we really shouldn't let objectivity get in the way of a good neurotic fulfillment romp -

I would also caution that the NAM tends to run a cool bias in synoptic events around here from hours 60 to 84 ... I've seen this countless times, and then it ticks warmer again coming into shorter range. I suppose the 'encouraging' aspect is that some of these globals are chilly - agreed...so it may not be a straight application of bias in this case... but just sayn'

I like the d-slope dandy faux warmth appeal on Saturday ... should be 64 F with mid Augie sun lazing the land between 2 and 5 pm, with light wind ..it'll seem utopic. In a subtle way, it's an homage to 1997. That Saturday was 62 F up at UML ...with high based fair weather cumulus, the tops of which were curling off to the S direction as though hinting Kelvin/Hemholdz wavelet in form. And the air seemed to almost shimmer at distances ... like heat on a savanna along with the exuberance of seasonal change ... as gaiety erupted and youth spilled out onto the commons round campus... ZOMB! This won't do that... I mean, we don't have a -4 SD mid level gyre coring a hole in the atmosphere S of LI on Monday, but... just the cold anomaly is anchored in a slow moving L/W and gives sort of similar idea of mocking face smack weather change. Then Sunday is a transition dreariness ... and then overnight into Monday morning, 72 to 84 hours on the Euro, that might be the best chance using that particular guidance suggestion. So in the wee hours of Monday morning through dawn, for getting a marginal atmosphere with dynamics running over top to pull a surprise. As Chris intimated, you can see during the afternoon that it tries to flip back to rain as the 'quasi' cold conveyor arc is [likely] too dynamically weak for the late April sun. This hearkens to an email with some other site-non-participating Mets over the winter, this thing that going on with the climate over the last 20 .. and in particular, 10 years, with seasonal lag - at both ends for that matter. These unusual October snow in the air if not outright on the ground, and even more frequently occurring in Aprils and Mays dating back to 2000 (roughly when both ends started statistically hockey-sticking those averages) is a bit too concurrent with CC to assume it is purely coincidental. April's a smear month in that debate though ... because it's technically not a warm climate month and going back 300 some-odd years there's enough snow in there to suggest that's just prone to winter at our latitude/geological circumstance of continental loading happenstance. The greater circulation eddy of the hemisphere is going to cause cyclonic curl over SE/E Canada because of the rest state PNAP bulge over the Rockies out west... and that lends to late chill.. ... but I'm digressing.. Anyway, over the last 20 years we've seen an odd sort of tendency for global off-setting cool region to set up somewhere near-by to eastern N/A to cause 2/3rds of springs to do this here. It's just statistically demonstrative, too. Prior to that ... going back over a hundred years, 'these shouldn't be happening'