Typhoon Tip

Oh yeah dude... Deer? heh... they snort bird seed like 'coke -

we warned everyone days ago ... still, tomorrow could end up better than modeled ... sometimes SW warm sectored air can surprisingly clear out

Ha! speak of the devil... not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up! that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles! Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact - Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover. All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 "

.. it's not my gradient - it's gradient that results when you take a post Younger/Dryas ... and subject it to roughly the last 200 year's worth of industrial revolution's conversion to economic ambition, while not connecting any moral culpability along the way... But I knew what you meant though. I think this is stage one of GW's relentless assaults on winters in general. Hypothetically: Stage I: the atmosphere above the 60th parallel plummets every November when the sun fades below the horizon/critical irradiance levels. But...GW is holding 2 to 10 decameters of ambient heights below that latitude ... too subtle to show up on the typical anomaly scales, but when those cold heights press into that girdle at mid latitudes, the flow goes vroooom! It makes sense that 2018 waited so late - if such a hypothesis has any validity, because by then... it's like 'finally' the surrounding medium isn't pressing back as much. Stage II is when the rapidly warming polar regions close enough of the difference that late autumn gradient doesn't slope as steeply between 75 and 35N... Who knows when that is... decades from now - or less... I've always thought of 2015/Feb as being so far suppressed that it actually benefited some regions by virtue of being deeply inside the SPV - but even that year...things tended to move right along.

Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 at any time...there is going to be a slow mover that's not progressive ... I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is -

Not that mo counts for much buut... seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies. It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes Pretty much, Euro-esque... I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction. Marginal.. fast mover... Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon...

It almost seems like ...just eye-ballin' those seasonal snow numbers, the heaviest water-shed run-off may be on the NW sides of the topographic divide ...

Just checkin' out the GFS ensemble members re that 200 hour west Atlantic climo low ... yeah, there's some signature there from other members. Some keep it more involved with the intermediate stream an open wave, while others sever it off similarly to the operational run ... drifting it slowly ESE out there to stir up cruise passenger vertigo ... Thing is, ...it's part of the relaxed flow which makes it less predictable in the first place and part of that is whether it'll even exist - could just as well be manufactured out out of R-wave distilling in the run from having 'nothing there for too long' ...sorta

It's funny cuz the GGEM with it's typical curl bias in the mid ..ext ranges, has that long gone by 200 hours by the GFS ...with it's w-e stretching bias is the one that curls it up and holds it there...

I like how it has pellets at PF with 80 for Keven way out there in la-la land.

Good day for faux warm appeal... Walk outta your house on the south side of the edifice ... where the wind is all but completely sheltered and you'd swear it's 72 .. 44

Solid air mass performance considering the sky could not be any more clear if it were on the moon

Part of that also is that we still have a velocity surplus issue in the atmosphere ... ( 'swear, some upstart grad student needs to flash an insight and release a rock-star catapulting paper the demos how GW is causing this to happen...) and fronts always seem to end up ahead of mid range schedule because of the stretching that is concomitant with fast flow - whether related to the parenthetical sarcasm or not, that's been something I've noticed... Anyway, could see Saturday end up more polluted with 68/57 and warm mist and sun splash intervals ( faux subtropical) before strong polar front clears house. Friday may be +3 C at 850 and super adiabatically annihilating the BL thickness to over achieve if that light wind high sun angle and lower cloud due to still lower RH all plays out. As far as the season... no, ... not by tenor to date, or climatology in the first place, combined. Those two factors/2 = whatever you want ... plan on being ass rammed, cuz that's been the most correlated result since the Novie snow/cold deliberately set the region up for that assault ... Seriously, you could couch the whole question/debate of 'can it snow again' under the heading of 'not impossible until May 22nd,' which I've seen noodles in Waltham on that day back in 2003... I've seen snow showers to a slushy inch on Boston Commons on May 20th in 2002... Of course there's, 1977,... 1987... blah blah blah. Some years ..yeah, you just sort of sense in the gestalt of the times it won't allow it and you're season is wrapped up with no hope or chances by the end of February - 2009 leaps to mind with nearly full green-up by April 10 that year (something I'd never seen before or since...). This year will detest warm enthusiasts while simultaneously leaving a taste of shit in the mouth of snow lovers -

Also, if using the Euro ... the day before might end up the warmest day, too.. Keeping ur concepts in mind, that day the flow appears more veered slightly ...should the warm boundary/related clouds not interfere ... I've seen that in the past where the day before ends up the warmest. ...sort of changing the subject from Saturday, to the warm generality.

MOS is putting up 63 to 68 numbers for Saturday pan-wide across SNE sites ... The idea to keep in mind with MOS for those that look(ed) at it, those values are more weighted by climate the further out in time. Therefore, the 66 type numbers put up for Saturday ... day five, are some 14 over climatology average of just 52. That may not just be a mild day at this time of year, because the signal is strong enough to rise above said weighting... That said ... as is also concomitant with this time of year... a warm frontal placement can bust a high temperature by some 30 F or more.... I've seen it be 44 at BVY while it's 77 at HFD ... because a warm front slammed to a halt shy of Worcester. One could probably see their dash therm jump from 49 to 68 all at once driving west on the Pike out there over the span of just a few miles. Right now the synopsis has a broad warm front extending from somewhere near ORD to PWM ... That's precarious at this time of year. But, the models have unilaterally been consistent with that fragile set up succeeding so we'll see... Thickness up to 554 dm with 850 mb T's 7 to 10C while lazy flags wobble from SW zephyrs propably gets to to 74 actually at Springfield if those parameters succeed into the region and there is sufficient sun.

Kind of a napey day out there... Light wind and high-ish sun at 49 F ... gotta also admit, I wasn't thinking it was gonna be that 'mild' - relatively speaking...

Three cycles and counting and I love the rendition illustrated by the operational GFS ... Parallel run not too dissimilar, as is the GGEM... though differ on details... Between 18z Saturday and 00z Sunday ... 70 to 74 F along the Pike while there's 1.5"/hr snow rates along the N side of the St L. Seaway... That's pretty neat to see - ...

Ha ha... Folks ruminating on the seasonal change with Hostas and Lillies and gunk and y'all can't have it - they gotta come in drop winter post-bombs to yank it back into perpetual winter immersion support group ... It'll be July 10 and same thing... I know -

At this time of year ... model stochastic behavior gets excessive. To the point where spending much time that far out in range, even in the sense of hobby-diversion with weather related social media ... is equally as futile.

Lazy spring vibe out there ... I got those tiny aerial insect balls hovering .. bobbing left right up down in unison over the hood of my car and lawn. Sure tell sign of the times ... Too bad it's going to regress colder 'n a Mastodon's unthawed anus for three f'n days. That's spring incarnate around this god-forsaken geographic circumvallate of an orifice known as New England. It does that every year ... a day like today, it's a super hot fantasy girl kissing you on the cheek. And while your eyes are still closed in awe and ecstatic joy, this nasty horror story of a prison gang banger guy swaps out and ass reams you relentlessly. Your squealing in agony like a pig while he's asking you how that nice day felt - Am I gettin' through ? If I were a millionaire ... I would own a separate residence, replete with comprehensive homeownership insurance. The abode just sans of any heirlooms or family prized possessions, ...And there I am, out there, amid the warm windy prairies somewhere in the swash of tornado alley. Towering leaning turrets and wavy sun simmered air ... While it's 39 F in Framingham, Massachusetts with mist, slate gray sky and a thoroughly caressing east wind. I would gladly forsake the New England mock-spring and tortured persecution complex ... and flee to that second home circa late March until early June, or mid May. Or whatever it takes... If the place happens to get clocked and has to be rebuilt, I re-emerge out of my tornado cellar no worse for the wear and just wait out my insurance coverage to rebuild. See... I'm not there living per se... I'm there to escape this prison; perennially, I leave behind all the other hapless cell-block assholes, left to ponder as they sit around and rationalize and quibble over how here on the inside, we hold out hope for snow through April ... Delusion over despair. I innocently strollin' on come back in May and am like, "Hey y'all - whatcha been up to" haha. Ah yes... "Spring" in New England. I'm kidding - of course... But I think it was Samuel Clemens A.K.A. 'Mark Twain,' who once famously quipped, 'the worst winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco' ... the dude never spent April in New England I can guarantee that, because while I would never diminish the misery behind his motivation for saying that of our west coast brethren, I certainly would put spring right in there in New England, as worthy of an honorable mention.

It's doing it's typical act of bringing Heights almost to 580 and a big spring ridge while putting highs N at the sfc though so it would be questionable how much warmth gets in here. It likes to do that in late March through May's.

Excellent support from the EPS for that, too...

Yeah ... guess hope the GFS doesn't win out, huh -

It was probably both... There was synoptic scale reasons that were "enhanced" by oriographics... probably the best way to look at it. Movin' right along - Beautiful warm sun and temps down my way cresting 40 and probably destined to mid 40s.