Typhoon Tip

Acknowledge runs coming in a degree or two colder over last couple of cycles… But this was still never going to be about snow in Southern New England and probably not even up to Manchester New Hampshire just keep that in mind - mix/ice. But typically these things do start out with aggregates for at least a small while I’ve seen IP columns be 10,000 feet deep

Jan 8th just needs a southern stream injection and look out! ... as is, starved but that's an intriguing n/stream mechanical presence/handling there on this v16 run

Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined.

heh...devil's in the details on those ending Euro frames.. yuck -... It's raining in NF on a long shore easterly beach eroder flow, with a low pinned under that block, ... in January Meanwhile, late March 850 mb thermal tapestry for every S of 50 N everywhere...

That GGEM run actually has three distinct Pac impulse rippling along in succession right out to the end of the run. Any one of those could do it ... It's an interesting look by the Euro, GGEM .. .the flow is 'relaxed' in the sense of height gradient - so the velocity saturation is alleviating for a change! Yet, the wave spaces them selves remain in a rapid progression.. It's an odd behavior.. That Euro block looks dubious up there... It almost looks like a 'latent heat landfill' ... The whole region between NF and England is like the land the atmospheric patternization forgot... So, It's formulating a soft gradient NAO black out of western Atlantic cyclongen exhaust.. mm okay... think about that. you go 564 to 570 dm height node with only three standard isohypses surrounding it before we find any kind of nadir ...that's a little dubious for a core winter month. It just seems everything is 'what the f' these days - man

You know ... if you glide your mouse over the 20 some odd members of the GEFs ... you can ' kind of tell ' how they want to build the actual Z depth height structure...but for some reason, most ( but not all..) settle for 'COL' ( or absence of pattern at all ..) ... That gives the allusion if you will, of a 'placeholder' ? Kind of like on stand-by in case they need to build one lol... I don't know...this last 10 years of management up there over that surface area of the Globe is intriguingly ill-performed and problematic if you ask me. The Pacific should be where the research is focused... sure, as the primary cold and S/W ejecta loading pattern(s) obviously begin there... But, when the flow is fast between Hawai'i and California ..then slows nearing the OV at mid latitudes over N/A ...I have come to find that precedes the N. Atlantic ridging - not sure if that's also useful up in the NAO domain ( D. Str. and Greenland and so forth...) but I bet there's a larger wave mechanical/Rosby argument for that. hm ...and once it is there.. .that "backwardly" fold the flow ...blah blah. Anyway, the flow has been fast - gee ya tink... - along said axis so ...

I understand what we are after with these layuts... but using these geodetic boundary -type maps to formulate some sort of weather-related idea of "central" verse "northeast" has always been annoying - For the purpose of what we do in here in the gawk-support group, ranging to professionally disciplined endeavors at NCEP... There is no way NW Middlesex is Northeast, when S of there is Central ? ya know ... We should create a map that's sort of climo around ptype tendencies, for snow enthusiasts... maybe have it overlaid with mean 32 F dashed line(s) where needed... It would probably be arced...

Yeah... if no one minds... I'd like to swap the title to be Jan1/2 ...this has morphed in timing to be smeared in favor of NYD and over night into Saturday morning, so we should reflect that -

Bingo!

Probably should be noted - or not ... that the Euro really had 'dynamic evacuation' as it's real only limitation to a NJ model low scenario for that Jan 4 ... we spoke about this in the other NYD coverage ... There are GEF memberships carrying on with that - just sayn' ... These are all 'tweener' system really ... None of them are really connected to a modality ... They like the "weather-life" version of John Lennon's famous aphorism, "...Life is what happens while you're busy making plans"

Maybe I'm too generalist ...but that really just looks cut and dry like +AO winters tend to suck - that's our canvas... Begs the question, do -AO winter unsuck ? I suspect if run the at or above snow years thru whatever algorithm/GUI provided ...expanded to include Chi- town and Denver back to Columbus OH and ROA -PHL-NYC-BOS-PWM... the whole circuit, prooooobably the layout looks polar to that rendition .. .if not diametrically so, still considerably -

You know... so long as this "pattern" ( ..mockery) is what it is, I hope that D 10 operational Euro depiction of COL atmosphere under ridging at +4 C at 850 goes ahead and verifies... ( as interesting aside, is a 'lack' of a pattern a pattern in itself ?? ...that extended Euro has 0 identifiable R-wave ownership - not sure I have ever seen a pure nebularity in January before... another curious little example of how GW doesn't appeal to anyone because it is like hypertension: silent stalker ) Yeah yeah...here comes the pettiness to remind of low sun-angle this, and short day length that... But, excluding those bargaining for 'avoidance' tactics for the moment, with no snow on the ground and a multi-day rotted or even absent polar air mass, that's prooooobably a pretty dam delicious 56 F high ... In light winds, even the tepid suns of January will be inspirational - for those of us not in fact saddled in life with -(S.A.D.) variant disorders ...hahaha... Just kidding but it is actually a real, recognized affliction ...it's just that it affects a smaller percentage of people... It's literally called "negative SAD" ...and those that have this feel a similar experience in spring and summer that the majority experiences in autumn and winter. Anyway, I can swap out my passions on a dime and just knowing how nice that weather is, it'll be nice .. What I really, reeeeeally pray to the remorseless god for ( that's code for 'good luck getting this prayer answered in kind') is that we don't sans winter in lieu of flurries on Memorial day.. .I think this last year was four consecutive stolen springs... I mean, yeah ...spring warm in New England is a fool's expectation anyway, of course.. But snowing in May like it's 'normalcy' is beyond the pail. Made horrifically worse when it's 70 + in February long enough to fatten buds

This was always predicated on the idea of lower polar wedging and removing that, we'd be skunked - well... it's 2020 !! The 'never really did' - fine... The thread was 'light to moderate' ..others like to spin things up perhaps. I don't know who said what.. .but, these bolded pieces are completely fair to be honest. There were in fact better indications of those now missing features you mention - even in the early Euro runs, semblances of meso circulations.. better delays of the high. that's the way it looked like 4 days back... heh. Anyway, it was a worth journey .. It started evolving toward less after the fact. As it stands now ... no argument moving forward.

Yeah ... my take on this this morning is that the entire banded region of impact specifics have shifted some 100 mi N of when this thread began... But, there's probably going to be some subjective and/or imby-ism ... Most places will see a flake or two.. hear some pings... and may glaze. It'll be a matter of how long one spends in along that spectrum - less S, ...longer N.. I just have difficulty believing the Euro will be "that" wrong with the general layout ... not at this range, and the above is still satisfied in a Euro evolution. It can bust - sure... But, we have no crystal ball and the gamble of least regret, it is just too inconsistent with the Euro's verification to see that happening so we wait so that cacklers can claim the Euro is never as good as used to be in the off chance that it proves not to actually be a conduit for the thoughts of god - ... So, bearing that in mind - and in no small part ( for me ..), the 06z GFS took a pretty significant step toward the Euro's timing/placement re the high up up N of Maine ... I really see this as a quicker transition - save for the valleys ... which may hold out a bit longer for cold puddling. You folks up your way will concomitantly take longer to move through your rendition of this ultimately 'scrape-by' event to 'feel' like this winter isn't really fool's errand - lol

It’s technically still 2020 lol

Cold air always wins when tuck jets are draining off a latitude top heavy PP ... don’t forget that and modulate with that in mind. 00z GFS hesitates +PP departure around 84-96 hrs. Hard to say if that’s just modeling noise but this is a very sensitive situation and moving that high backward relative to the modeling progression even a little bit can have significant sensible impacts when we’re dealing with whether it’s a 35° cold rain or 31.4 glazing in the Interior Southern New England. In short .. new run does little to increase confidence in quicker warming onset Also it is true that the ballast of this event appears to be NYD presently but staying the title in the off chance the lead boundary situates and thus initiate modest isen. lift sooner.

And honestly ... as a more formal update to the progress of all this... It's changed since this thread started - very glad I left matters at 50% confidence/coverage for southern areas ... I'm not certain at this point either way, if the GFS isn't just attempting to move toward the Euro with the timing/placement of crucial +PP up N and moving E of Maine ...without that, we are sunk for substantive impact... And this will transition rather quickly in that correction. Getting into a ice/mix S and mix snow N was always predicated on that key factor, ...so of course, we then summarily fiddling with f'ing that part of it right up good and proper -par for the course. But we'll see... My experience tho is that once these polar highs start accelerating in the guidance they don't tend to move back west in future cycles ... The entire morphology aloft is differentiating toward something different too... The southern aspect has not gone so far west it is hard to figure what kind of cyclonic model it really fits into. It's almost nothing - or unique... It's merging over SD with something of new Pac arrival ( this fast flow is absolutely killing our winter ... miracle we had that snow storm a couple weeks back)... and if that continues to go that direction ...we could conceivable wash out the cyclone from the charts end up with a fropa while the Rockies build the cap depths. ... I don't think so but there are other visualization certainly plausible... Like to see the GFS back off the west track with S/stream... and see the Euro slow the exit of the lead polar wedging...

I posted too long for anyone to read about the AO last hour or whenever that was ... but, in shorter I was dancing around the notion that a strong and deeply D(suppressing)/DT AO may lead the subordinate WPO-EPO and NAO responses... We'll see. But the CPC seems to have corrected the aspect I was bitching about the other day, and with curves seemingly back on line now as of last night... blah blah. But upon doing so, the concerted negative AO is whopper ... It's hard to believe that could verify that way and have the operational runs keep doing what they are doing - something has to give here because the AO is still a part of the Earth's total atmosphere and it shared domain space (geometrically) with those latter three.

Ice ?

I know you've been pushing this event ... this 'follow up' thing ... it's all good - but it's not really only indirectly related to this thread, which was specific to the NYE and Day time frame. Just sayin' I will say though, that this is following awfully close in space, so it may be a bit dynamics starved ...

Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women

I'm not sure what my opinion of V16 is ... I've heard some floated rumors that it's verification/scoring is besting the current operational variant - as well as other models too.. But where? What sigma level/metrics ?? ...I mean, is through the whole troposphere ...? or just in the 500 mb ongoing cinema - I will say I like the 12z V16's entrenched cold look as being more realistic for just knowing how cold air is heavier and any positive soundings will tend to stay that way - duh... That looks like brief snow to bee-bees and glazing in interior SNE probably down into N CT ... and looking at the meso-beta low down there near CHH/Cape.. combined with a clear dam in the PP NW of there.. .that thing is going to end that way, too - period. Seems we go through this doubt shit every time this sets up ... It's really no different in/when wondering if that BD in April is actually going to come down and bargaining all these rationalities why it won't - how does that end for you ? But ...as I said last hour.. if the high moves off more so than these GFS members have it... that's a different ball game

The AO did correct at last ...last night's run completely flipped. The "gape" that had opened up between the verification curve wrt the on-going prognostics has rather abruptly corrected. Hard to know/say what/why that happened ... but the two are eye-balling a more actually correlation coefficients ...which prior for a week running they had gone astray. That "might" offer some confidence back in using the damn thing .. the gap before really rattled its usage to non usable frankly... It was over as much as 2SD parted ways and increasing. Right now the the verification curve has demonstrated so much instantaneous correction ( for a single cycle!) that it has to have been some sort of mass-field reset - it literally repositioned the curve 2.5 SD almost straight down and knowing where this set as of yesterday morning... That appears 'less than organically motivated' - Either way, now the prognostic curve and the verification curve are descending... together ... big time! I find it interesting also that as this correction took place, we are also seeing less 'mop ended' discord among the members entering week two. So in short ..we suddenly "seem" to have a legit mightily suppressed AO coming from the GEFs .. Now that that's been taken care of... we still have the unusual circumstance of high velocities around the periphery of the ambient PV... When the AO drops negative, typically the PV relaxes both velocity and latitude... This "pancaking" of the PV ... is unstable geometrically with the curvature-linear planet space so the flow buckles.. .and in the polarward parts become ridge nodes, while the equatorial dips become conveyors for both cold delivery to mid latitudes, but storm traffic increases. The problem is that the velocities being high ... offsets those buckling tendencies - it's figuratively as though the PV is just large, but not weak. All this means pattern change - ...to what... Hard to guess because of the velocity skewing the climate model. I guess go with something that correlates more so than less, with -AO... I would imagine that (WPO-EPO)/NP and the NAO all may begin to exert more negative...but I suspect the higher velocity is impinging on those domain spaces and preventing curvature to take over ( the MJO is in destructive interference with the AO ... which is the anti correlated state - but, I don't think the MJO is really even propagating/forcing in expanded HC as readily as it use to; supposition ) The NAO is neggie - btw... But as Will pointed out, it's useless being so far E. However, the AO being perhaps "legitimately" negative and appearing to descend in concert with the member mean ( GEFs..) this is generally more favorable for retrograde - so "maybe" the NAO modulates west given time ..if not diminishes then rematerializes as so.

If we lose the high pressure to the N .. game over. It's a bit unusual to be 4.5 days out and still needing to iron out the larger scaled synoptic/governing features, but such is life in a fast and flat furious Pac dominated flow. I mean, relaying waves off the open expanse of the assimilated lands of dragons and wizards and in a velocity rich hemisphere, the shortening of the typical 3-day window is reducing to just 2 days to make up one's mind. Lord! ...thank that agency for the better assimilation techniques or this would be bad night at Vegas But, this GFS run is moving the erstwhile high pressure that was N of Maine on guidance yesterday, more to NE of Maine by early Friday, ...and we'll still probably have generated a tuck jet/on-going from the present run's configuration, but any more longitude with that +PP and said jet starts weakening and we go the in situ route and use up cold fast. Thing is... it's still unusual for lows to defeat planetary jet constructs/confluence across S-SE Canada... and that is what this is doing.. It's phasing the roll-out S/W ridging from the vestigial S /stream as it rides up the ridge, with the NVA/ ... and that's like engineering how to do the unlikely - f'n model.. .I swear sometimes I wonder if the modelers purposefully parameterize the GFS to run and prove quantum mechanic outre realm of duality -