Typhoon Tip

It's always interesting to me how that atmosphere seems to mirror the Labrador Current so often - ... as illustrated by Steve's repost of the NAM 3-KM 2-m temperatures. It's seen often enough to suggest in the on-going planetary physical machinery of all, a tendency for both fluid environments to move back SW around these ~ latitudes and longitudes. Not all the time or at every time do they happen concurrently ... But as a kind of rest state, the LC flows back SW along the Maritime waters of eastern Canada ...terminating beneath the Gulf interface E of the Del Marva at all times; whereas, the atmosphere finds any way at least excuse imaginable to do the same thing... but often enough to be an indigenous trait of this region. Both pile cold. Whether by sea, up against land. By air over the eastern New England dumpster. It just seems to be a topographic circumstance of our location that is a negative node for fluid systems - like being born with a learning disabillity and having to work extra hard to ever be as warm as the other kids... heh.

That satellite presentation and loop cannot more elaborately illustrate New England sore-butt season...

This spring is a gem compared to a lot of springs, period. In fact strike that - most springs. Of course it all depends ( subjectively ) on what one considers 'bad' vs 'good' . But going by the leading sane consensus ... bad = cold and wet. You guys have a charmed existence this year. Not bad ...hahaha Some of y'all need to suffer reality about as badly as it has not been. Perhaps then you'll appreciate how good it's actually been ... so far. There are years when it's 80 early and often and those are like 1 :: 20 year seasons... 70s early and often perhaps 1 :: 7 or 1 :: 10 The rest of those years divvy up between 40s, 50s, with cold water. Placing this one in that rank it's probably a 1 :: 5 year as far as crippling persistent in sucktitudes as to challenge the very endurance of man ... Part of the problem about New England sore-butt season is that it's ever nice at all? I mean, if it was low tide cool and clammy all the time and never deviated... we'd probably actually grow so accustomed to it that we're fine. But we'll pop 74 ... 77 ... 82 ... BD and get ass wrecked for 10 straight days... and the set up makes the latter prospect utterly terrifying.

Well... we've gone and done it again .. Despite this, "Globally, this was the second warmest March in the 140-year record, with a temperature departure from average at +1.06°C (+1.91°F). Only March 2016 was warmer at +1.24°C (+2.23°F). March 2019 also marks the third time (2016, 2017, and 2019) that the March global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average surpasses 1.0°C (1.8°F). The March 2019 global land and ocean temperature tied with January 2016 as the fifth highest monthly temperature departure from average for any month on record (1671 months). The 20 highest monthly temperature departures from average have all occurred since 2015, with March 2016 having the highest monthly temperature departure in the 1671-month record at +1.24°C (+2.23°F)." If you focus on the middle latitude regions of U.S./southern Canada ... there is a relative cool offset result/heat sink: Some 2/3rds of the monthly results stemming back almost 20 years worth have demonstrated a relative negative in the vicinity ... This has at times been more sensible/meaningful...other times, less so. But, 2/3rds is a substantial majority... It seems that in this GW era ... there is an emergent tendency to make N/A a kind of dumping ground. There have been offset hot periods, too... 2/3rds is not 1/1 ... But for some reason... over the last couple of decades of this apparent acceleration of the GW observation, this has not been evenly distributing; less expression of warm departures compared to other areas of the worlds locally. If March seemed chillier than a Globally Warmed world, there might be some at least minimal empirical data to support that. Here's the thing ... March could have been + at all major climo sites and still been "blue" relative to the whole. That's the rub here in how this "missing out" aspect has been playing - we really are not missing out much ( or may not be ); still, I wonder when we'll get a crimson paint month if ever from the GL to NE...

we hope... heh. yeah, some thinning... It's about the best hope for getting real sun 'cause this axis of holiday COC shaft is in no hurry to stop pumping into the area with this stagnant slow scenario -

Oy man... this satellite cannot be more annoying for those that have/ ... perhaps "had," lawn plans surrounding Easter. Which, is a gamble at this time of year anyway - but... New Jersey is the big winner! Their in that dry-slotting with little real CAA and tall mid Auggie equivalent sun sear baking away... Meanwhile, cross about a 2-mile margin of sky-time and it's 50s and drizzly murk with that conveyor now running over top the primary frontal zone that slipped off shore overnight. That puts SNE on the rail-tracks for that moisture freight. I suppose it's really no different than the typical reason(s) to hate-on April's in general... This variation of it, however, is one where a gyre's death flops happen to be centered southwest of New England rather than over Nantucket. So consider ourselves lucky as spring enthusiasts, that we were at least 70-ish the last two days ... could have been worse.

Seeing as you asked me and covet my unique perspective on the cosmos... eh hm You're weather-related entertainment spectrum down there goes like: convection in spring into early warm season --> heat with a side of heat --> soul crushing boredom --> ice storms ( though a rarefied snow cannot be ruled out...), ...start over again... with obvious and occasional exceptions to every rule... Basically, take our weather, add 10 F to all climo points, boom - which concomitantly does offer more convection dystopia, but unfortunately ... less snow cocaine to feed neurosis-evident poster mania

Upon seeing this kind of photographic art that's either meant to hint and inspire winter's eternally alive and strong, or does so by accident I cannot help but think ... if it were not for a mere 1,500' -worth of ambient geological elevations, it's that close to not being serviceable as an impression at all. And it strikes how nature is really like that.. You could be abutted right up against the proverbial fire, and not know it. Tornadoes sweep through neighborhoods blowing houses clean off their foundations, while the next door neighbor's window sill flower pot is left unscathed. It really seems any system being observed holds out in it's characteristic nature, ...never yielding or giving in to the adjacent realm, however near. Until the 'boundaries' are crossed ... and then the new paradigm bares little or no resemblance ... Vanquished by time and space, the former only to return by fleeting familiarity. Kind of like that... Yet, we draft up boundaries that demarcate and define the world around us. The difference between tropical and extra-tropical cyclones ... say. When the truth is... those differences are only defined by the separation along a spectrum. You have hybrids... hybrids of hybrids... and on and so forth. Maybe the reality is, nature's boundaries are absolute; the boundaries that man contrive are imperfect - I like that.

We'll have to see if this has legs but ... the 00z Euro continued where the 12z left off in evolving more eastern ridge along and beneath the 45th parallel. Not for not ... the GFS does so too, however ... appears to wait a couple days to get it done - don't look at the lower tropospheric synoptics, though ... this model does this. It runs out, finds some exo-planets are Eridon Indy that has butterfly life...and then uses their wing flaps to engineer offsetting cold here on Earth. It is thus dubious and uber infuriating... I think part of the issue with the GFS is that it has too much torsional production and when anticyclonic fields are set into motion nearing 90 W it over assesses the backward curl near 70W ... I mean, it's real...but maybe it's too aggressive. The longer version is what tends to bring us BD events among other reasons to retard warm arrival. But it in general arms too much ridging underneath the polarward rims of these continental r-wave warm signals so warm fronts like never get east of the Hudson with this f model... Now that I've glossed over eyes my goal is complete... Anyway, excluding details beneath the 500 mb tapestry for a seconds... Both the Euro and the GFS eventually... are both doing a continental 'tuck' pattern down stream of a pretty significant -EPO burst. What's interesting ... the 00z version of the GFS doesn't have a very defined -EPO ...but aligns the ambient westerlies similarly nonetheless... I mean, we don't have to necessarily have a -EPO to get a robust ridge over the eastern U.S.... but it certainly helps by basic wave spacing arguments to anchor that look. The GEFs -based teleconnectors so-so in support but haven't seen last night's numbers. Previously, the tele was more -PNA tho

Sonoran release in the D6-10 Euro ... Pretty classic anatomy actually ... If that happened, ... before any heat ever got here that would be a long track finger nail of Satan tornado day at the end of the run - The model had something like this suggested two days ago if/when extrapolating.. It dropped it, but apparently said extrapolation has now come into the extended range bully ... I don't really trust it ...for the obvious, but also because the GFS has been sea-sawing between an eastern ridge and trough every other run too... Some ridging in the east may be favored, however, given the GEFs tele spread.

Yeah... yes it is. Regardless of cultural implications relative to 'where' these big clock events have come on shore, the 'when' of them has been really alarming. You know ...I read 10 or 15 years go, papers ...peer reviewed ones, espousing the uptick in mean severity of ISE because of GW ... but, back then, I had counter ( and still do ) theoretical thinking. The antipathy was/is centered around "gradients" Gradient drives ...well, all of reality actually. The difference between here ...and over there... IF it were all the same at all quantum points ubiquitously down to the Plank-length of the space time continuum ..everywhere, nothing would move. There would be no positive vs negative charge ... The would be no curved space, thus ...no gravity... thus, no aggregating mass... no starts, planets ... molecules ...just a soup of inert motionlessness that is for all effective reasons, none existent because it has not effective meaning... That baser principle is what reality is foundation'ed upon ( bare with me... ). You have to think about the weather that way? Warm vs cool. Hot vs cold. Theta-e ( think dewpoint) vs regions with non or surplus compared ... These are all gradients. The are all what gives rise to the actual dynamic action of wind... and clouds and rain and storms ...and the null areas, we call sunny days. Gradient drives everything... Just because we warm the atmosphere due to global warm... that does not concomitantly connote a very intense frequency of storms. You still have to have a heat sink... ( gradient ) capable of ingesting the exhaust from the heat source ( the warming ocean ). I just never read any passages in those early papers that really demonstrated this simple sort of thermodynamic arithmetic was being considered enough. If the the oceans warm... yes, that means additional thermal energy is plausible... but, that energy may not necessarily be accessible ...if say...the couple atmosphere is already holding more moisture than usual from having already adjusted. Also, the tropical sounding is a conditional instability type ..The typical sounding has a dry warm region at mid levels...with warm saturable parcel lifted into it, mixing causes diabatic release which then gives parcel buoyancy ...more so than the negative region of the sounding. It's why you tend to see narrow tall turrets... If that region warms due to balanced latent heat increases, that lowers the instability. In other words, if GW is uniform at multiple levels, ...it's unclear to me how that really effects TS ... And all this frequency could just be normal... However, having said all that... it might be that the warming is outpacing the total atmospheric balance, so ... yeah.. I wonder if there's a temporal window here where we denude islands and punish greedy coastal planners...

what does one expect I suppose ...but geesh! Look at the 300 hour GFS from the 00z run and compare it to this one - Talkin' about as precisely exact 180 degrees opposite as is physically plausible in any fluid medium with that pattern handling ... The funny thing is ...even in the prior ridgy look, the model was finding a way to keep that lower troposphere wedged in with some kind of belated wfrontal suppression. Separate matter altogether but ...I've noticed that about the GFS ...it simply cannot see "warm season" beyond D10 ... it always always always... regardless of all, defaults back to late February in that time range. interesting... when the pattern looks like it would flip hot...it finds a way to be cool using whatever means necessary at least excuse imagined... Otherwise, February.

So it's in the media today, Michael's hurricane intensity officially being set at category 5 per reanalysis ( I assume to be reanalysis ) ... Here's the thing ...that headline gave me pause for two reasons: Another category five hurricane in the Atlantic basin so soon since the blitzkrieg of a couple years ago ?? But also, what the who the f is Michael? Oh yeah... that one - Man, we've been sooo saturated by these biblical tempests in the last ...well, since Katrina for all intents and purposes, that it's all sort of blending into one contiguous event. A touch of sarcasm to that statement, but... fact of the matter is, you hear the same tape played often enough you sort of automatically start committing less of it to memory. It doesn't have 'as much' shock and awe, it's indelible mark in your memory stops happening. I mean I completely forget Micheal happened... I think ... or suspect rather, that Micheal making landfall where he did ... sparing very dense population circuitry ... helps media extinguish the manic coverage. Not sure... maybe the media industry is looking at the numbers and seeing a fall off in interest due to the same saturation fatigue ...and are letting things go sooner, too - Either way, I almost feel like we should start counting on a strong catty 4 if not 5'er as a perfunctory seasonal result - just a matter of whether it's actually impacting land... much more, land populated by something other than frigates and wind stripped palms

Ha...right - may not be what you were getting at but it reminds me of the whole 'stick a hapless WC reporter out on the end of a pier in a hurricane like we're supposed to be surprised by the wind' phenomenon -

well... You had mentioned 'no sun' or something of that conceptual nature ... I was speaking to that, specifically .. 'quality of the day' ... As far as instability and all that other stuff, ... same - not sure. That could all be mostly above the 650 mb level...in which case it's sunny for a while and then unstable through 200 mb depth... so you get crispy CU that slam shut under an stable sounding above... Or, if that cold pool extends deeper, ...again, soundings -

Heh ...maybe I dunno. I thought I read somewhere that '38 even was preceded by a humid pattern but don't quote me. I definitely read that both Hazel and Carol in the 1950s had cool snaps the week prior ...and would seem consistent with that description of turning said air mass around and then having a 'temporal window' synoptically

That's not that impressive ...to me. It's not that appreciably deep...though it's certainly unstable should any day time heating manage to warm the lower troposphere under the rim of it... That could be a pancake cu with a couple over achieving shower bands but ... it's hard to know. Have to see the soundings -

What I find interesting about this quasi-closed low's slow evolution through the east is how much that reminds of a lesser amplified version of that meridian coastal flow you sometimes set up in late summers... I've quipped in the past, " ...Bermuda blue pattern.." when describing those larger scaled circulation constructs. ~ August 20 to September 20 regimes, a weakness in the geopotential medium sets up stationary for a week or so ... roughly over Appalachia ... On the eastern limb a deep layer, deep tropical conveyor runs from Nassau clear to Maine... Within that stream, it doesn't get torridly hot, but you often end up with 82 /76 type air., with remarkably clear quality. It's really like Bahama tropical sky and ambiance visits the area. You even get those tropical puff CU's with an over active turret ... under which a dark bottom features a single rain shaft that's blinding heavy for two pixels on a radar scan. I've often mused ... if a hurricane were ever approaching the Bahamas in that ilk of larger circulation mien ... but man! Never seems to time that way. ... In the 30 years I've been more sentient of said matters, I've only ever seen the irrepressible excitement junkies .. seemingly have to will hurricanes in between early frost air masses of all things. Picture it: It's a crispy early morning chill. A low dew point air mass swashed in as a 'shot across the bow' warning how the changing season looms. It's 37 F degrees, ...early September, and the cold dew laden over the lawn's greenery and car tops looks like frost but just managed to say liquid ... Meanwhile same category 4 circular saw is cutting it's way WNW some 60 nautical miles NE of San Juan PR ... Two days later... we're condensation conduction dew onto pantry windows because the air mass outside with rising DPs turned around too quickly. There's an18 hour window when the steering winds veered S along and off the Eastern Seaboard and up she comes... Only to curve smartly ENE near the Del Marva and sparing us actually succeeding in timing, being the most common result ...but you get my drift. Obviously, neither is prevalent over this weekend's run through with this trough over Appalachia. However, we do have a deep layer southerly trajectory that set up and the system is moving slowly enough to allow a DP positive anomaly to persists.

I love these satellite loops in the spring that look like some cosmic -scaled bucket of white latex paint was spilled over the land like the ass end of a contractor's truck does on a highway ... As the mid level warm front slips passed ...it's exposing this glue over eastern PA/SE NY and western MA that is apparently resistant to summer intensity sun from evaporating it... Yup, it's officially the 'violate planetary physics' in order to keep it shitty and cold and miserable time of year... There should exist spring carols... "...It's the mooost unhappiest tiiime of the yeeeearrr.."

It really has been a decent spring ... I mean, spring sucks - it's usually a game of relative tolerance ... If it's tolerable suckiness, it's a decent spring. If it's violating one's ass all the time, unrelenting misery ... it's a 'typical' new england piece of shit season. Once in ten some-odd years you'll get an 80's April... like in 2009 I think it was ... but, by and large ..we're operating on a shoe-string budget of variability and hope -

I could take up to 82 at this DP ... but, low 60s in this type of tall sun angle and low wind is just fine -

Why you shouldn't get married...

Welp ... we've pretty much cleared all hope of recouping any exit mercy-f* snow so, next best thing ...bring on the heat. Only problem is ...none to be seen, per the tenor of the operational model versions. Interestingly tho ...the GEFs NAO are favorable for lifting the westerlies E of 110 W ..., which theoretically would open the medium to expansion of ridging... and with the PNA flat-lined and tending to sag neutral neggy heading toward week two... that all suggests we could see a warm ridge evolve. Nothing... Seems what the operational runs would rather do is ridge the super-synoptic scale...while plunking subset synoptic mid level cut-off gyres toward Long Island... just perfectly axe-head wrong for spring/warmth enthusiasts. See, this is why April is a p.o.s. month. It's figurative as though some metaphysical force endeavors to create a pattern that 0 people can embrace - ... I the words of Count Rugen: "how marvelous.." Actually ...to be fair... it's 60 with somewhere between cerulean and cobalt blue sky ...and with the wind slackening and the sun being hot ( mid august soon...), it's pretty damn spring like. Hopefully it works out this way ...where we can sneak days in...

Early reports... someone had a wee bit too much wine during that 3.5 hour lunch they get ..

just think ... in a million years, there will be no trace that Humanity ever existed, as the peregrinations of all reducing factors in a universe intrinsically fated to finality ... will have long since reduced it to ashes too -