Typhoon Tip

Jesus… Where the hell have you guys been the last 10 or 20 years This climate can hand out 12 inch lollies like candies from a Pezz dispenser… This isn’t the 1980s. You can get 3, 12” storms and a tweener 6 spot easily across 35 days and still see bare ground in between each one because of melt off It’s all Stockholm syndrome loss of objectivity in here nothing else

Day 10 Euro went out of its way to make my point ... You can see the ambient velocities have slackened as the +AO height depths in the N elevate with the easing off of that particular index, which means ... the integrated gradient everywhere also reduces... The only problem is, the heights remain elevated in the S. No bueno on that look. Seems more and more like this winter is the first one where CC has more coherently f'ed up winter; and the vitriol soon to follow as to what caused this winter to behave the way it did, I can assure....CC will be the last reason entered -

Thanks for the sidled compliment but ... meh, a properly edited 'stream of consciousness' becomes stilted ( typically ), and besides ...for this venue, the polishing given are plenty sufficient, because a more refined effort and or attention to detail would go unheralded. No thanks on the time waste -

Might actually help those who've developed a kind of ...'codependency' on whether they get to experience the gestation spectrum of weather events in the model cinema, all the way to go time, who turn into smoldering trolls if that process is polluted in anyway ( such as ...oh, reality ) eh hm, to rephrase your missive as: "still looking toward the end of the month for a possible improved pattern that could plausibly offer an event(s). Long ways to go though." The overnight operational model runs were bad, period. For several cycles immediately prior, they seemed to be just on the temporal boundary in the extended where they might be detecting a paradigm shift in the general circulation - necessary to set the table. In a sense, we're trying to set the dining hall, so that we can set then set the table. The tele's has some hints of support. And, then there were some seasonality arguments adding conceptually ... But these 00z guidance regressed and lost that homage - it could be par for the course in a season that has shown exceptionally bad late mid and extended range scoring ( relative ). Maybe that is all this is, but we are back to the previous look by increasing the isohypses ( geopotential lines ) count between the lower latitudes and mid/upper latitudes over our side of the hemisphere ( probably everywhere for that matter..). In short, sped back up... Yeah I don't know this for certain and it will surely get cackling rubes making fun, but it seems the +AO relaxes, but the HC expansion issues are still in play, so yeah..we get some relaxation but the flow still ends up f'ed up. I start to wonder if we're just gonna have to deal with this as part of CC more and more in the future seasons; and I don't mean to ignite a ...shall we say, 'spirited debate' - it's a one sentence reality check that I believe is more real than apprehension chooses to accept. Either way whatever this winter does, July is still coming. That means, everything gets destroyed of lieu of the new season; more importantly, there has to be a progression of events leading to that deconstruction, and common wisdom goes ... this crazy velocity saturation, which at more times than not has become a kind of base-line destructive interference, is going to have to break-down. My contention ...beyond when, is what - usually when fast flows break down there is a tendency to reverse and go blocking ... I see that as plausibility as we aged this month and flip the script into March climo. If the AO tendency does neutralize on time of that climo it would probably be in March. There have been big Marches in the past. Though those years probably bore no resemblance to this one in terms of flow characteristics ( whereby the global indices only be numerical, 'hide' those tenors and are thus used wrongly as guides ...), there is still some value in the notion that it can snow prodigiously - it's just gets more and more difficult for the downtrodden to be objective. As an afterthought ... it seems we're having trouble more in the middling -scaled cyclonic organization in this stream-bi-passing quasi sheared high velocity atmosphere, but are getting more 'hyper-bombs' ... just a matter of whether they're in NF or UK ...or gosh forbid along the EC. It's takes more precision to time phasing in fast flow, so by definition ... rarer. But when it clicks, look out!

No ... the pattern's been rapaciously immoral for holding out on winter enthusiasts so long... hahaha... yeah typo ftl

Nah ... singular events can relate, but they don't drive pattern changes... Typically that interpretation has that bass-ackwards - the pattern begins to change, and THAT triggers the 'restoration event' That's also the basis behind the H. Archembault statistical science, too. Big events happen at inflection points in large mass-field paradigm shifts. Not always, but tend to... So, a 920 mb low near Iceland probably doesn't hurt to 'mix things out' a bit .. but the persistent +AO cannot last forever, and we are definitely nearing the typical age of pattern mortality - they usually don't last more than 45 ...may 60 days, before some new paradigm sets in. The happenstance of the Icelandic low is iffy-related at best.. Sometimes the new look bears vestige/echo of old, but will still be observably different in a few ways. Other times, the whole scale appeal is more coherently changed. What makes this [ possible ] pattern seam interesting ( for me ) is that it is happening on top of the typical season ending blocking climo. The two together is a kind of constructive interference. The AO there is (firstly) subject to change that far out in time. Particularly per my own experience, when it camel-humps in-between, too - that's not lending confidence to the farther extended framework when mean has to handle complex modulation in the foreground. ... But, it may be more important that there is a concerted agreement among the members to shift the index mode from +5 or even +6 standard deviations, all the way down to a stones through of neutral ( 0 ) just in general. That is tremendous absolute value correction - and if/when in tandem with a better performing NP-/EPO and PNA rolling up underneath, there's a lot of room for more active pattern guesswork and plausible late season cold deliveries at that. But lets get the super position in time of the +AO correction with it's concomitant relaxation integrated flow together with the early March climo thing, first... It doesn't have to wait that long, either. In fact, the GGEM and Euro were already deflating the flow by D8 or 9 off their 0z depictions.

Dennis ?

Suggestion in the deep field that the hemisphere's getting ready for spring slosh back and that will likely mean substantive blocking ... probably/more likely in the NAO or overlap regions of the adjacent AO ..along with some flow relaxation and more increase r-wave numbers yielding a pretty definitively different circulation bias comparing the predominately longitude/speed shear we've seen everywhere. Leaning toward March ..mainly the first the first half, as being a bootleg savior for seasonal totals per an active pattern that is more meridianal in structure which connotes cyclogen regions activate. I also wouldn't be suprised if the east Pac finally juts a ridge node into western Canada, too. These are not unprecedented season ending regimes after fast flows, and in fact...fast flows tend to decompose into blocking intervals when they break down anyway, but we'll be superimposing the seasonal temporality on top of that so the two may constructively interfere. It's a three week ...maybe four squeezed in of vulnerability when the sun actually eases the gradient, while still having enough cold in the hemispheric bank -

To offer salvation from 'storm denyist'

Yup...bingo! The problem is that these systems have multiple time-constraints in their moving parts? It's complex, but ...some things that are dependent, cannot be seen now..but may need to wait a 100 years - or some unknown time where is required before effects/affects can be measured. So we in our brazen science 'think' we truly understand a system enough, and then we go in with our ingenuity and do x-y-z and sure a-b behave ... but "c" runs amok with unanticipated consequences. To mention, chaos and entropy in changing or forcibly adapting systems.. I'm just sort of expanding on your (bold) statement above - word!

And unlike some predecessor systems where the Euro was curling Lakes routed, D5+ ranged systems, ...this one doesn't have the fleeting hope that fast-flow stretching might correct the track more E. It appears the whole-scale flow has less meridian expansive character through that evolution/synopsis ( D 4.5 - 6 or so ..), and it's wayward proximity being closer to the the higher latitudes takes it out of the higher velocity correction region of the flow. It's like 'tipping' into the SPV region of Canada early more so for leaning that way along the way or something. The D10 double unphased wave structure in/around the EC longitudes in that run would be more phased and a bigger deal imo if the west and Canadian circulation construct is true, tho. The flow is relaxed/lowered HC structure in the deep S; the ridge in the west if axial along N/S Dakota, and those two circumstances usually parlays toward a slow down and better stream mechanical interaction. But oh yeah...D10

Yeah..I too am not really sure on the Australian fires. I've yet to see a truly well-constructive theoretical framework/paper that is fully refereed that explores the total spectrum of causality. Embedded in said spectrum "could be" human, ...but I'm wondering if more so for direct route, rather that 'indirectly' with CC stuff. Example, if/in decades of preventative measures coming back to bite them in the ass. The West learned it's lessons right here at home in North America over the decades, too. Fires are part of the natural order - in fact, most post-fire biomes tend come back with particularly improved vibrance and fertility .. Humanity has a habit of trying to prevent that longer termed, relatively normal ecological restorative vitality engine from running. Then, a lightning strike happens and all that volatile carbon storage gets the heat needed in the triangle of 'heat', 'fuel', and 'oxygen' and away it goes - and it creates an inflation because the bigger that gets out of control, the uncontrolled aspect grows logarithmic - So I think the U.S. does control burns and so forth. I don't know ... did Australia's burn-stricken regions suppress normal burn rates and set that table unwittingly? Maybe.. a formal paper would be nice.

I was half kidding with Will a couple weeks back when I surmised that a bad winter at the hands of a +AO indignity has an upshot in that the Arctic really could use this ice-rebuild season - to put it n"ice"ly... I'm wondering if we are getting any positive returns on this, or if all we are mustering from this journey is static ... My hunch is the latter, but who knows. The problem at the sort of 'intuitive' level is that 'warmest January ever' and point empirical observations like 64.9 F in a region of Antarctica that has never observed that - granted in only 30 years ...which is a dodging hiding post for denial and so forth ... etc etc.. Plus, NASA's reasonably high resolution color-coded salmon fest that only has where? Alaska as the offset to "normalize" the Global perspective... heh, I would not be shocked if we are not really gaining much ice back despite that raging PV

The statement has value because nature always is a process seeking balance - nothing else. Human 'conceit' seems to have the restoring as somehow taking place protecting us over all else ... ? Good luck - No, the balancing will happen where ever the gradient that is unbalance is given space and time to motivate - if aquatic and land-based biomes are in the way, there's no morality there - that's a human conception. If we get what that means in super Universal objectivity? That means your ass!!

Therein, is the problem: what goes into that verb ( bold ) right there - What do you think 'find' will mean? Look around you everywhere and all facets, at all scales and dimensions in nature, nature restores ( balance) violently ( breakdown of existing paradigms). Perception is beguiling... If it happens at a slow rate, that is not benign -necessarily. To see things otherwise smacks of non-sophistication and shockingly simplistic assumption about what it will take to restore any system that is being usurped. As repeating evidence in nature shows, usually the arrival of the new, balanced result has wiped out the pre-existing paradigm(s) in favor of the new matrix. You "like to think nature finds a balance"? I applaud ... because absolutely: everything in nature, including the sentient capability to even perceive nature, happens because of the perpetual restoration of forces at all scales. But that restoring process has big big big component of entropy, when restoring forces are unintended - and that loss of order and increase in chaos when big forces are in play, is like stampede of elephants through a daisy farm -

Well you know, if it is that consistent it's probably something systemically mechanical about the physical handling of flow entities by the models, et al. I saw a notification/post on LinkedIn the other day by some Met that's managed into my network but whom I have no formal affiliation to - such is usually the case for anyone in the social media realm. He presented a model verification comparison between the Euro and GFS for beyond D5; it was astounding how similar they were over our quatrahemispheric scope, AND, how awful they were. Way worse than the collective no-how of operational Met and/or educated enthusiasm are really used to in personal/common experience. So, what is it ? I think it's the fast flow man. I see a plausible-causal relationship there, because velocity 'around' wave spaces in the atmosphere, may not be handled/integrating properly with velocities 'inside' the wave spaces. Maybe the the failure is in the diabatic vs adiabatic thermodynamics and latent heat after condensation then releasing to meld into larger surrounding R-wave phenomenon .. I can come up with plausible, convincing science fiction that may or may not be proven more veracious than not. But, one thing I have noticed about storm-modeled behavior is: regardless of cyclone tracking in guidance, they are always over-amplified in the D5+ compared to what has transpired, save for a few sporadic bombs ( NF a month back ... Etc. ) or the deal up in the UK last week. The Euro nailed the NF low some 6.5 days out - I know, because I diligently monitored that CCB event because the model kept putting out like 20 isobars spread out over 200 miles and it was fantastic modeling cinema to see that. One could have taken a veritable Sharpie to the weather chart, and just drawn a big fat black ink channel - sure enough...they were sustaining Category 2 shattered ice froth. Not sure how the models handled the UK event/cyclone leading....My hunch is they did reasonably to above normal. Usually ( you know all this...just arm-chair quarterbacking over coffee) big deep mechanically exhaustive bombs have equally charming leading indicators, so the models tend to see those early. Like primitive by comparison, the 1993 so-dubbed "Super Storm" I recall as much as 10 days ahead and TWC was airing how the ensembles of the MRF were beginning to "hint at something very large in the atmosphere" ( I literally can still hear it in my head). And, well, it never really deviated after that. That even was like an 'atmospheric rogue-wave' but I digress... I think the clue to the "nothing has worked out" appears to be hidden in the daily function modeling programs, probably right down to the geo-physical scale, too. Because they are all doing it, and never not doing it... again, save of extremes, suggesting there are inabilities or crude aspects lurking in the models that are acting like "limitation rails" Fast flows tend to strip storm depth because the speed out paces the Coriolis parameter...and that's the stretching of the field - well, stretched fields mean less curvature, so we end up negating the curvature term in the difluence ... --> mass balance handling error emerges and the models may be introducing too much curvature for fast flow out in time, and then correcting ...even sort of surreptitiously flatter, then ends up with more progressive weakening trends. That sets up a whole host of other issues, because a weaker system then interacts ( integral above? ) with the surrounding field differently in terms of positive or negative/constructive/destructive feedbacks... and on and so on.... Another sort of 'gestaltian' perspective ...as an indirect metric perhaps pertaining to this: the number of record setting intercontinental ground-based velocities being reported by various commercial airline flights. Seems there is a weird kind of emergent non-correlating coincidence between the frequency of those being reported, and the dimming skill of the models over recent years. It seems there is some tantalizing evidence that links velocities of the planetary maelstrom to the modeling performance in the mid ranges.

LOL ... you know it's tru tho. The euro does this too to me at times. I catch it f-ing up with all this stuff, and then the verification comes out and it's in the lead. Whaaa I could argue the ICON did better for f-sake. jesus. I think what it is is that the verification is a Globally integrated scoring? Contrasting, we are focused over N/America; maybe there is something about that handling. I bet if someone clever created a Global color coded blue and red, bad versus good, performance... there would be a nazy blue hole over Cincinnati for D6, but the model would be salmon glory everywhere else.. kidding to some degree -

This is exactly how this impressed me this morning at dawn while clearing the hood of the car and windows. Spring glop. The air really smelled more like rain, and had the faux mild appeal to it, while as you say the trees and so forth were burdened with that cake.

Honestly ... I jumped into the middle of an on-going conversation. Scott's talking about it triggering this or that, but I was not the source or start for that snow vs CC. wtf man Fact of that matter is, this Hadley Cell expansion stuff is real. It is empirical, it is researched and continues to be so, and the implications of those studies absolutely is going to rub some folks the wrong way. I can't do anything about that. And, if this social-media platform needs objective usefulness, we have to bring real topical science to bear. I think when this particular rendition split off the culture was never intended to be the same - that much is clear. Once we started registering penny prophet per frame rates and mouse click ... heh. My point is heading toward wondering if that's even possible here in this vision. Be that as it may, I don't care to specifically get into why people get rubbed the wrong way - there's absolutely no way to positively influence one's political agenda, much less 'personal' agenda, amidst a public-anonymity of cadence-less, expression devoid Internet, and in fact, negative is so overwhelming favored there's just no usefulness to engaging. But that vitriol that was triggered ...? sorry that strikes me as people not liking certain realities and lashing out at objective source work. You got some loose canons in here my friend. Which btw ... had nothing to do with anything other that statistical mechanics and method for scatter plotting .. but, when volatility gets to a certain tenderness merely looking at the needle will cause people to pop

heh ..would it have helped if I caboosed that the missive with the prepositional phrase, " ...in February" ?

http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/present.htm

Keeping this system narrow and more W-E oriented might offset the ' no high'

Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it.

Not to be a prig but based on what ... outmoded climate norms? Good luck.. When the CC isn't just changing it is by all present observation 'accelerating' in doing so,.. oops The gist of your point is clad though - I get it

Not sure about 'preview' per se ...but, when the whole hemispheric eye-balled integral results in solidly above normal heights, that becomes a hemispheric problem