Typhoon Tip

If there were any virtuosity in an ideal world, and said world could be our reality ... Brian or whomever agency really owns this gig would tag all posters making drive-by potshot debbie-downer assertions about this failing, and then when/if there is a signal thunderstorm at all in the area, those people are banned for the 12 hours it take to elapse through the event. Then, when it is over, they are allowed to begin posting again. Buuut, this site has aspirations around wealth and we all know what happens when money and morality attempt to share the bed - the bed ends up on fire.

I'm noticing morning scud shreds are moving swiftly ESE here along Rt 2 in northern Mass as of 10: -10:30 AM. That's not conducive to getting a warm front thru this region, considering that observation would argue the flow just off the deck is actually paralleling the orientation of the front - which as of last analysis by WPC, aligns roughly along Rt 2 ... Yet, WPC has evaluated the warm front pretty far N. I'll tell you, it 'feels' summer-like here. Home stations sistered to the Wunder source/netword are all in the 62 to 64 dp, which my experience with those is a standard backyard 2 or 3 F wet bias and that means the DP is probably 60 ... 61.. But, we have not coupled up 70+ with 60 DP so for this year, and what an accomplishment by the way...considering we were collectively astounded at the 55F DP depressions in the region yesterday when it was 73/12! ...anywho... What's also interesting is that the surface isobaric pressure layout by the same WPC source does have a sag over eastern NY/CT ...which are both in the warm sector. So, what the means is there probably is a weak llv gradient that is NW-SE under this warm boundary. That's interesting that a warm front at the surface managed to propagate through that resistance.. huh.

Yeah agree in general. I was just noticing a glaringly obvious ensemble difference(s) across the board. In all three, Euro, GFS and GGEM, their respective ensemble means are vastly different than these individual synoptic handling of that D4 to 7 time frame. You didn't ask but this is for the general reader .. Firstly, we only spend time discussing this piece of shit cut-off nuance that bears absolutely 0 significance to any of our lives, because we collectively suffer a weather-obsession psychosis and are compelled to do so... At least being aware of that, saves one from utter damnation in the hells of insanity. Ha! Secondly, what I suspect - upon carefully evaluating each operational version - is that they are phasing the D3 weak-wave mechanics that initially turns the corner around the Lakes (~) and dives south near Ohio, with what appears to be convective feed-back over-zealous wave propagation out of Texas or thereabouts. The Euro waits to do this infusion near the Mid Atlantic ( and it should be noted...no prior operational runs of these three even attempted this entire scenario), whereas the GFS does so earlier around the western TV region. The GGEM does the same ...where ever in the hell it says it happens, it's doing that weird phasing with what might be faux wave space out of TX just like the other two. The ensemble means, don't do this. As a result, this thing dumps in and fills much faster, as well...the ridge spills over top by mid week with a much different forcing on the weather types and surface features et all by as early as Wednesday. In fact, by late Thursday the EPS has a vestigial wave smear shredding to oblivion SE of the MA in the west Atlantic, while the operational is still whirling -2.5 SD torque menace over the Delmarva ... mm... yeah, that's a vast outlier - too much stress on believability. Thirdly, this is all an operational model continuity break and synoptic forecasting 101 should automatically consider this suspect - which I do... because that wave coming out of TX idea...heh... I think that is getting overly developed and is causing the more sensitive physical processing of the operational versions to then have to favorable wave interference with it. We'll see..

Careful -... the psychology there seems to implicitly mock the setup as though it's cased closed a waste of time and blah blah.. It's not just you...it's the last couple of pages of defensive annoying posts. There'll be a 75 dbz core SC with a hook and funnel rippin down the Mohawk trail at 5pm and all these same people would be hypocritically in gaiety - I get it that this is a social media pass-time, and therefore people can freely express without needing to sound intellectually responsible ... but sometimes, that recess becomes a bit too overwhelming. There is a reason why it is bolded and banged in all the literature, " ..in or AROUND ..." watches, warnings, and special interest regions et al. All that, plus, that above missive shows either a lack of foresight, or... a lack of experience when dealing with New England convection. Convective events almost always turn S early around here, usually earlier than modeled and/or interpreted by offices/agencies that use them, too. Those of us that have lived around here for decades know that tends to occur ... more often than not. It is better for convective enthusiasm if one is on the southern edge of hashing and/or watch designated regions, because of this right-turning behavior. If we wanna get into why the latter takes place...it's probably just dynamic propagation toward the higher CAPE. Which in most situations around this geography...that tends to be toward CT.. Plus, our geography tends to support cool pooling, such that early outflow might aggregate and pool over northern/NE zones from earlier activity, such that when additional clusters come in... they tend to develop and/or track along the southern edge of amorphously defined boundaries that end up along an axis of NYC to PVD (~)... We who've lived around here also know all too-well about the "splitting" lines phenomenon, too; that seems to know where any given observer happens to be watching radar as thought it's an Electron Double-split experiment with vendetta against good intents and purposes... Joking aside splitting lines around one's community seemingly on purpose..heh, is actually probably related to the southern portion propagating toward the better CAPE, while the northern portion is tapping into better S/W mechanics... so each go their separate ways and leaves intior SNE jilted ... that is, for those that need weather phenomenon as an emotional outlet. All of these phenomenon actually means one is proooobably better off along and/or just south of these hashed regions/ and/or designated Watches. Plus, just looking around at the data, I don't see that this is less threatening - myself - below the typical expectation of New England underperformance, anyway. Which that fairly means, we could not get anything and it would not diminish the recognition value and predictive necessity of this scenario.

Fwiw the 00Z NAM was a classic 12z warm thrust with the partial clearing climo that’s a pretty typical behavior in getting the job done around here

Wiz’s nerves are more bi-polar than an EOF5’s radar gate when he has to wait a whole day before a convection setup - Jesus nothing’s changed, dude. It’s a great setup ... probably top percentile that won’t produce anyway just because it’s NE so settle down.

00z NAM looked threatening

I wonder if the belated green-up is playing into this... That's one Two, wonder if we have problems with that warm front ...specially if we dump a rain column into this dry air mass.

It's legit dry man I was toolin' on a 25 mile ride in 73 F and was bone dry when I got back - that's some turbo vaporation there

75! ...got my 40 delta ... that's pretty sick -

yeah...jokes aside ultimate solution with that thing is ... excruciatingly tedious and nerdy of us to even be following but - lol - appears to be flux.

Not sure where this trend ends... I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh. Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.

wrong thread

Mm... lived in this region of the country too long... If the wind is veered anything more than 190 (~) than anywhere east of I-91 (N-S) over eastern Mass looking at an incredible severe day of gentle elevated sheet lightning ...maybe even a "die line" as far west as the CT River Valley.

lol me neither ... that kid's like a Meteorologist Forest Gump equivalent

GGEM not having very good continuity either .. These cut-off lows are always a beyotch for the models, and the peregrinations of the GFS and this one really showing that over the past few runs. The GGEM not only parks the U/A low in the TV, it's really so far away that we end up building heights back over 582 dm over NE and the upper MA... In fact, that looks warm by Thursday with 560 dam thickness and 850s up to +12C if it were not for the cold ocean lurking there, Kevin looks like Will and Scott's daddy -

I could see it going to solid spring by Wednesday "IF" one is dumb enough to go with the 12z GFS' operational rendition - Thing is... the model's placing that U/A low it cuts off all over the map from run to run. Now, it has it way stuck down in the TV by Tuesday, with a huge push of "BD" ( in quotes because I'm not really sure what to call that weird pressure pattern/synoptics the GFS is doing...) high pressure walling down from the N - so aggressive on this run that it actually places the breadth of NE et al bodily inside the surface ridging so far that the wind cuts to nill by Wednesday afternoon, when you have solstice sun unabated to the surface under 850s' around +3 to +4 C... Granted, that configuration probably doesn't mix that tall but ... it's still enough to argue 68 F under hot sun and light wind. That's not early summer, no...but it's a vast vast improvement over the chiding tenor - it's a nice week beyond a couple of climo rotters. Big deal.. But again...not sure this is the go-with solution either -lol

35 to 70 so far here... This was well advertised this huge diurnal potential... And it's a late high scenario too ( not totally synoptically driven). We have light west wind down here ( prolly there too...) and over both locations the 850s are warming over the course of the afternoon by dry advection.. -1C at dawn is +5 by 7pm so we probably tickle our maxes say ...5: 5:30ish... I'm guessin 72 to 73 here. I was hoping to put up a 40 spot on the delta but ...heh, may have to settle for 37 ...pretty big

Mentioned this yesterday in the May thread that it would/should not be surprising if SPC upgraded what was then hashed out MRGL ( to SLGHT ) for our area. Has the hallmarks ... A warm frontal passage wedges warm sector into the region circa 12 to 15z ... After associated early showers and an elevated thunder clap or two freshens up the llv theta-e ...the sun burst through and the south facing windows brighten up suddenly mid morning. Temp bounces 14.8F in a half hour. By early afternoon blue tinted facades of the distant hill tops, along with the mash up smell of summer theta-e with early biomist turns into tropopausal rollers. The day of Monson Massacre did that... June 1986 drecho down Rt 2 did that... Worcester 1953 did that... From my personal logging, that seems to be a good way to get it done in NE. Have the day dawn fighting a warm boundary, said boundary wins by 10 am... Clearing peels open a rich warm primed air mass and sun does the rest ahead of some synoptic forcing later in the day ... None of those in that list above are intended as outright analogs ... but the orbital perspective of a warm wedge followed by evacuating S/W later in the day does bear at least a conceptual similarity.

Warmer NAM run tonight. Full warm sector intrusion Friday

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels... Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it does begin to come of an wantonly so -

not sure of any reasoning that foots his outlook but ... I think he's right. The most vulnerable days to affliction from that is Monday/Tuesday ... I'm also open to the notion that this ends up less anyway, because it is not unprecedented in the mid to late spring for the models to over-sell a mid range mid level cut-off and it ends up being more of a mid level instability dent in the isohypses .. This thing is trying to settle into the M/A region while the super synopsis around it is heading in the other direction - might be a red flag? gee. Also, seeing the GEFs at least hint if not outright attempt more progressive drift ... it just wouldn't surprise me if things don't end up so bad. But, I'm also sensing this is a bit of an inconsolable crowd, too ... a time-purified bastion of ingrates that share in the same "negative S/A/D" that really just can't stand summer weather unless it is utterly perfect - otherwise, it's we eat a steady diet of their smoldering troll tactical grousing. hahaha

I just spent a few at Pivotal looking over the 700 mb RH and 500 mb this and 850 mb plumes and so forth, and much of the Euro's momentum is confined to a mid level swirl ... that's partly sunny under mild 850 mb temperatures, and more diurnal instability looking from Wed on in that particular model...

For now I'm thinkin' it's all bs... GFS run ...this Euro...all of them. The GFS is unstable showing now progressive continuity shift - which means, there's plausibility this speeds up more, and like I said...could be a prelude to this just morhing more into a west-east propagating wave. Meanwhile, the Euro deepens troughs and balloons ridges, too much beyond D4 as a general rule ... and this deeper complexion/look it has could easily be shaved off 6 or 10 dm and atone for that bias... So in effect, we are being dealt bullcrap for multiple reasons - pick your miss-direction. we'll see