Typhoon Tip

yeh meanwhile the 12z para GFS explains the concept of not buying into seasonal numerical instability in the models out at 300 hours - poof Something may be there - like I said...they models don't actually "make it up" ...

Man ... tomorrow and Thursday makes today's pricey shit-show almost worth it... If the NAM's profiled numerology is right - The FOUS has Logan supporting 77 for high temperature in JJAS ... not sure about October sun but either way...mild to warm. The wind angled off-shore, and only breezy for a change - not a this proving ground at an emission controls - I hate that. The only way to get 73 F to be chilly on Earth is here in this p.o.s. SNE climate curse. Anyway, ceiling RH < 30% both days? Talkin' euclase emerald skies bathing us in 70+ .. MOS is only 70 to 73 at some typicals but ... not sure if that's climate weighting ... the raw numbers support more ... whatever -

Yeah in his defense... some sort of training warm frontal wedge convection appears to be going on in his vicinity https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/world/un-natural-disasters-climate-intl-hnk/index.html

it's too much - sure... Glad you picked up on the sarcasm - tough to deliver that ... I do think the world is warming and I do fear thresholds and so forth but come on - look how the models took the planet of Venus and crash-landed it into the Pacific Basin ...it's like minus 10 SD La Nina which is outside the theoretical bounds of Terrain physics or something ahahaha

...Since you asked me and care so very deeply how my opinion affects you and all ... I think this could be an N-stream dominated winter, but one that wends its way to (climate signal + average cold)/2 = ... take a f'in guess how that parlays snow... it's like a N-stream dominate winter superimposed over a planetary hockey-stick (denying ...) climate modality that doesn't end well for winter enthusiasts ... oh, not for decades. Okay, as we know in climate science, it doesn't move on a predictable slope though. I'm starting to wonder if might cross over a threshold ... years before Will's take on things that a 'no winter scenario' here won't set into until beyond the visible universe of our life spans -- how? because we arrogantly ( as human tendency ) keep expecting a slower deal merely because our egos get in the way of the fact that just because we can't imagine horror unfolding tomorrow, that means it can't happen. But, threshold happen by breaking at stress points... and boom! as they say in Ebonics, 'we be f'ed' Not to be alarming or nothin' but Mad Max's setting was the year 2021 muah hahahaha. The U.N. isn't holding back today ... 'the earth will become an uninhabitable hell to millions' .. Somewhere between those two futures lurks the inevitability smearing of our Currier&Ives portrait of winters - ...maybe

The obvious ? that's a global warming depiction there ...when every single guidance source has an unbalanced warm/cool ratio ... that's a warming world - sorry.

My lawn actually greened up about three or four weeks ago when that last convection ( prior to this recent macroburst event ) came through... We were actually straw lawn beige ...then, we got an inch.5 in a two thunderstorms on the same day... and within 3 days there were new green blades coming up and since... it's green. It's never been really very reflective of a significant deficit here in the Nashoba Valley, but.. in fairness, I have had a convective season here. I was under something like 8 t-storm warnings and 2 tor-warnings ... No tors verified but we had big wind and lightning cut up rains on at least half those t-storm warnings. Granted, convection tends to bonanza locales while boning regions... agreed, so this area was probably lucky in that regard. The small stream just down the road that is very seasonal rain readily responsive was actually dry enough to walk without wetting foot other years when the region was only yellow in patches by the Monitoring folks. This year, it's still managed small amounts throughout -

it appears to be keying on general pan-wide systemic/numerical instabilities that exists through those lower latitudes of the SW Atlantic Basin - I was discussing similarly ..it's seems to be a recurrent Autumnal right of passage. But in those specifics, the timing is way off between it and the GFS, the latter which doesn't even have its entity focused until 300+ hours; contrasting, the CMC is days ahead with an inverted trough over the whole breadth of the expanse and some paltry commitment to a TC ... The take-away is a period of development potential over all of the western Caribbean, Gulf and adjacent to Florida as the primary concern for now.

I almost think it might be 'seasonal modeling' phenomenon, this kind of scenario of a home grown Caribbean TC getting evacuated into an evolving trough amplification. Long words for that happening every autumn. Going back years...I remember back in 2003, the 10 days before the Dec 5-7th snowstorm .. the GGEM of the day was pulling a fully recognized TC object across Cuba, and phasing over the mid Atlantic. That did not happen... It held onto the thinking for several cycles. The TC did materialize but it shredded out into the Atlantic remaining uninvolved - it always interested me that it saw the TC, and so saw the mid Atlantic troughing ...but failed to materialize their interaction. Years later, we had a Sandy ...which was the same thing, .. pulled out of the deeper tropics...across Cuba... only it actually happened. And in between those extremes it seems some half the years we can't get from late August until early December in the modeling without going through this film reel - Thing is, the models aren't there to like "make things up" .... I mean, it's not like some wizard behind the curtain going, 'imagine if this happened' - ...they are actually only processing things that possibly can happen. They are not physically impossible - in that sense. It's just that there are an innumerable other possibilities more likely to occur, when looking at exteded time ranges...and likely to emerge along the way, and then their realities supplant whatever it was originally modeled. So back to the first sentence... it seems this is built-in sort of risk of autumn, that troughs of early season ambition induce steering that pulls a home-grown on up. It is climatological to have an Octo/Novie season in those regions of the tropics...and, conceptually, early cool snaps take place. Duh, having them concurrent on a weather map is probably just roulettes -

Not that there's much value or use in criticizing that particular solution ...considering lead-time, to mention product profiling... etc.. but, that solution does seem to exceed the planetary quota of potential energy - jeez

That's kinda spooky/hilarious - we were just musing sort of sarcastically .. then the 06z Parallel GFS solution pops out - heh

November 2019'S NAO averaged negative by a click and a half SD ... and then in the first week of Dec, as the index began modulating positive toward a December destined to a modest +.25 to .5 SD, ...it was right in there most of us acquired pretty much 70 or 80 % of our yearly snow ballast. We seemed to double that in morning frosts through late March from that point forward. The rub on that was that said event was not 121" of snow - lol But, the early and deep polar index ( NAO ) last year was off-set by the AO by a whole month. Interestingly...according to CPC ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table ) the AO carved out a deep January, when the NAO was positive. That's interesting... Because those two domains share/over-lap a consider amount of their geographical area, so having the AO manage a -1.5 SD while NAO was positive in change, ... that's really stressing the odds there... The CDC's correlation table has the AO and NAO positively correlated by some .7 ...which for atmospheric phenomenon is quite indicative. Yet, they found a mid winter butt bang status like (-1.5 SD AO)( +.5 NAO) ? Just sort of cynically ... I'm inclined to think our misgivings about 2019-2020's winter as an entertainment gestalt might be related to that rareness... EDIT this is wrong - I miss aligned the columns - sorry ugh. They were better matched afterall ... = December 2019 was doomed after that first week, but the month salvaged by virtue of actually having the first week's snow/storminess take place. So what I am getting at is an aside point along the way of this discussion; since the year 2000 ( as a notably observable trend) with either snow, or...patterns conducive to snow ( that latter may actually open up the totals to a bigger number but is subjectively debatable popsicle headaches stuff ) has been been recurrent themes in autumns. I see it unfolding in the GEFs/ tele's ...and the operational GFS ... yet again. The last cycle of GFS has 516 DM thickness across the NP on October 18!!! That's just not normal...sorry... But, it may not happen? But the fact that the model keeps doing it...and, we have in fact almost all but grown accustomed to if not expecting our snow in October ( ludicrous by any imaginative standard prior to the year 2000) ...I think it's all connected. And it matters... because... the NAO blocking of November last year went on to NOT do shit for winter... It was not correlated to winter at all at least in that one shimmering example. Yet, the AO...which was positive in October and Nov aggregates, went demonstratively opposite. It's not just noisy...it's a damn din and polar indexes in autumn were excessively negatively correlated in the one example last year. My most recent thought on this winter is a n-streamer ...

Purely anecdotal ( ...though my convictions are "observationally" rooted - lol ..) but I don't see a useful correlation to the actual weather patterns is the thing... Now ... obviously 'blocking' is a distinction of patternization ... But, when time is introduced, nah. Not by frequency for either restoration and/or modulation tendencies when comparing Octobers to their ensuing DJF of any given year. It's noise in other words... 30 days of noise in October "might" contain orientations that equal or bear some resemblance to fractals embedded in the noise of 90s days. What happens to November in that - I mean... it's like ( to me ) arbitrary when we start doing that... may as well compare April 13th's 6 years later to October 12th's ... aha! Pointing out a rather obvious circumstantial concept: 30 days is long enough that a blip for a week, or even two weeks of October blocking(no blocking) may occur; but then 90 days is an even longer...thus, much more likely chance that either of those circumstances may be ephemerally observed - think about it this way ... a progressive pattern tendency may go through a 'relaxation' - well, that relaxation by virtue of needing to go the other way to actually achieve relaxation may mean 5 days of transient -EPO(-AO)-NAO in there...or even two week's worth of it...before the the next 40 days of progressive winter ruining piece of shitness sets in... What? do we say that was a correlation because say, there was a typhoon over the western Pacific back on October 10 early that autumn that happened to recurve ...building a height response over the Aleutian Basin --> brief NW flow downstream over western Canada ? It's too much of a stretch to suggest those disparate moving parts have any kind of direct or even indirect causal connection ... So in simple terms ... yeah - "weak" puts it maybe even too strongly if you ask me. I think this is a simple matter of 'conditioning' ... Circumstantially, if there is a 100+ winter snow year, the antecedent autumn sticks out in memory ... because as part of the human condition, we seek and create patterns to describe everything we see in nature. It's why we discovered ( or invented - jury's still out on that..) mathematical rules, and language to convey the mechanics. Add artistic expression to that... it's all creating patterns from the nebularity of reality... blah blah ...that's an infinitely deep well of philosophy ... But, on point, a big snow year happens rare enough, that the Octobers that preceded it offer an easy guess-vector. But unfortunately, the age -old statistical argument of that not being a substantial enough data density to offer a high confidence ... screams at us. Top 20 years of snow and cold and ... winter cinema in general... is 20 Octobers - wooooh! 20 Octobers out that last 300 million years since the break up of Pangea sent Europe and Africa sailing away to the east and created the distinction of eastern N/A... It doesn't automatically preclude the possible correlation useful, ... that is true. But the convention of using statistics, which "correlating" is ... And that requires that the entire course of discussion does not require anyone reading as much as I have typed over it just now... haha. But, they say there is a modest 'negative' ... okay - maybe that is just because there are only a handful of years where the signal was just planetary scale, thus large and immovable and lapsed longer than typical pattern gestation...into the ensuing DJF. .. I would almost suggest that aggregating Oct and Nov might have more statistical correlative just based on these weighting concepts -

Strongest easterly jet phenomenon in the lower to mid troposphere along and S of the 30th parallel ..due to the strongest HC in observational Meteorological history ... augmenting the NINA state. ...mm possible. I do get the feeling ..at least wonder, if the the "global La Nina" story is not as emphatic as the SST due to exaggerated low level easterly stressing giving the latter a PR goose. It may not be a La Nina in the integral nearly as strongly as those SST anomalies ...meaning considering the total hemispheric interstitial factors that in whole, drives the ENSO states along... Simply put, maybe it's a weak to moderate integrated La Nina on whole, but with a low level trade wind exaggerated SST distribution contained within ... Never be able to separate those two - or at least 'good luck.' Chicken vs egg headache too - I think we're having a northern stream dominated winter ... and that is super-imposing over the extended HC latitude, where the layover is a positive feedback. We we may at times even observe the 'faux' STJ from ...or just a split into Canada/west...when the PNA tries to lapse .. But in those scenarios we're merely splitting the N -stream; southern component ends up with an mixed/ ice storm deal as the main storm profile threat when it does. And, ...lots of height lines and winds as a canvased look. This may be a good year for NJ model lows ... '86 Novie types...

it's had that for like 7 cycles now... Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ... It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it. The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened. Oops. It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though. I mean ...from distant orbit, that is. Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level. Leaves the question out there: could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ? Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

The GEF- based teleconnectors flat-out flag a winter storm in the east ..even as far S as our latitude, over N/A .. .~20th of October -->

Oh .. yeah, I suppose whatever it was doin' up ur way. I figured you came down here to my backyard and assessed the situ and then went back up there prior to dawn ... waited it out, and then claimed I - personally - busted. heh Like I did for you - Anyway, I was toolin' around running errands thinking, boy ..are we gon' frost dunnite. Woke up...gee, frosted. Came in here, and naturally assumed everyone shared in the same exposure of elements that was kissed with last night - It was better when SNE had it's own geographic subforum - I got to be way more self-centered and get away with it.

Oh sure - wasn't intending to mean we can't use climate ... my skepticism triggers at low observation of change I suppose. Just to reiterate for anyone following ... it's a matter of how fast the climate is changing in assessing how obsolete the past has become - We are right ...we are to date talking about 1 degree this and a lot of decimal modulations. That doesn't seem like much? By convention of numerology ( lol ) ... the # 1 is a small digit. But I would caution, therein is risk ...small numbers don't mean small changes to a system - particularly if said system deals with the machinery of a planetary systemic scale, and the endless polynomial terms influencing the synergistic outcome. It may in fact take ginormous change in a system guided by both positively and negatively compensating forces, to actually register a single degree of change in that system - but the boundary of change is being stretched ...will it snap? And, that ginormous change then is like having held back a historic flood with an outmoded dam. The climate is said to be 'changing' faster than the early climate change science predicted it would. Threshold mechanics comes into play as well.. I mean, we may be pushing decimals, then boom ...flash 10 pts .... you don't know. I don't know. We are in unprecedented waters in terms of Human influence in the geophysical environment of the planet. That much is empirical and cannot be argued - the anthropogenic C02 contribution, when added to the normal geological processes, sum to the biggest flux ever - unless that conclusion's been veraciously shown to not be true. Can we imagine ( then ) if we add Siberian permafrost locked Methane to the party - ho man. For all we know, there is lag in response and as the momentum for change itself gets going, we haven't seen thus felt the punch of it yet ... Even using sophistication of ice-coring and trapped-gas chemistry this, and isotope that ... those efforts are reanalyzing past climate change events that were not triggered by that which has ever happened before - to me that gets dubious quickly. So in that same vein/philosophy .. we're trying to use seasonal snow behavior from .proverbial .. 1948 datasets ? heh I may also have a personal bias in the cause-and-effect-relationship observation. In the last 30 years, we are hockey-sticking climate change, ...decimals or not. And in that time, we are seeing suddenly some 60 to 70% of Octobers with at least a chance for synoptic snow and a cornucopia of global outrage for enter alarming observation here [ ]. I think we can use climate of course...but I have that caveat emptor and asterisk sort of in play when I do -

Last night should have been an easy slam dunk for decoupling. I mean if said "bust" was because folks were being heavily MOS or whatever machine guidance reliant, maybe? Driving around last sunset, having just shed 6 degrees in the previous hour under navy blue sky going black, and a wind already going calm, while the synopsis showing a progressive polar high ridging through the area through dawn... heh, and DPs in the 30s. Keep in mind, long nights and superb radiational cooling will also draw moisture out of the atmosphere and the T/TD will couple up and fall in tandem for a couple of hours. I guess it's a matter of relativity-usage. Bothering to look: NAM MOS (MET) for KFIT was putting up a 35 for that location, and according to Mesowest they were 32. I was 33 here about 10 clicks E on Rt poopie... and had a prysm on my car top and tints of white settled upon my neglected lawns leaf litter this morning. I think the over arcing synoptics could have set up expectations.

all the while... The interesting early leaf show and deposition by some species ... I am wondering how much of that was local seasonal climate forcing, or what still. No idea. I am not particularly well versed in that science and am too lazy - in fact... instead of typing what will probably never be read, I could be researching it. But I was wondering if the smoke inundation at high levels might have dimmed enough UV later August into September to trigger sugar maples? My silver maple is still green, but, my neighborhood oaks are doing something interesting. Normally...they turn uniform purply red and then fell brown ..halloween-ish in time. But a lot have leafs that are spotty brown as a straight transition. So, they are either early or unhealthy - I just think in total, and given enough anecdotal accounts all over the Lakes ...OV,/MA and NE this is a real phenomenon. But, here's the kielbasa question - could this signal an and aggressive winter? I dunno - ... that's definitely going to earn a meritus schnitzel badge but I don't see how a solar cycle min that's supposed to be exceptionally low, dimming from smoke, and aggressive hemispheric posturing to load cold into the mid latitudes ( which might also just be the early book-end thing...but just the same -) ...all combined, I don't see how that doesn't parlay to winter. It could be interesting to see how all this lays out ...because the HC stuff isn't going away.

Agreed. I have a thread going somewhere over this, probaby scrolled I didn't see that it grabbed much interest. October .. particularly the latter half was timed this way for a long while now actually. There have been subtle and not-so-subtle cues in the total ambrosia of variables supplied to the (teleconnectors + musical tenor of models + near decadal seasonal persistency)/3 equation that = gut feelings... The 00z Euro and GFS have very similar looks on D7 - that's a shocker...these models have not agreed on that late mid/early ext time range since 2004 . heh But, I caution that this look is too much of a good thing? Here we are only mid October and the first bona fide modeled realization of said 'gut feeling' that emerges has to be compressed with screaming velocities. I dunno it really is clear to me that this a hemisphere trying to rush the polar region south, perhaps prematurely, while the south is not yielding. People ( not you .. just in general ) need to get their heads around this - no fun if the gradient's a ton. Even if there is a big ridge in the west, and deep heights over JB, if there's ..I dunno, 12 hypsometric contours circuitously constructing that total wave space, you ain't getting shit - well... there is overrunning and smeared out shear jobs ... But I mean in terms of Norwegian cyclone- model lows. If they can get going ..they tend to be very fast moving and weaker. So one is strong in that hurried bustle and people think that means this is not right - but no...it just means that if the flow were relaxed, the system would have likely been historic. It's always about amounts of mitigation - but I rant That's been typifying our winters too, btw - hello? We have to relax the flow in the heights, ..at least a litte, such that embedded S/Ws can mechanically force - if the wind outside the S/W is already blowing as fast as the S/W, this can't happen - or not as effectively anyway.

Well ... at the moment SPC hashes out MRGL for central/N NE NY - which based on recent scoring from that particular agency ... guess we can go ahead and ENH that to a comet impact ..,

Yeah...and honestly, the easterly Trade flux anomaly is just something I've recently flashed into the old sci-fi library of personal guess-work hahaha... But what triggered me to speculate on that is observing the behavior out over the Atlantic hurricane season...and the propensity of easterly shear. I used to think of shear as a west problem rearing up in Meteorology. When the wind turned around E at mid levels, look out! Suppose to be a good thing... but his year? It was f'n fire hose man.. mitigation of TW's moving W,, everywhere S of the 30th parallel. I saw TD after TD fail to sustain chimneys because they leaned and torn off with anvils making the Leewards when they were only half way the distance across the Basin... That much is not guesswork, it was actually seen.. Then noticing the west Pacific has been dearthy ( so far) too...particularly the western area of the Pac Basin. Both the Atlantic and the Pacific open areas are more prone to whole-scale balancing of mass load ..whereas closer to the Americas .. obviously the circulation structure changes at large scales might disrupt those 'orderly' field layouts and so we've seen some better growth profiles at home. Interesting stuff... but, what is interesting... the season was forecast' to be above normal in activity and they nailed that!!! The chagrin is that the 70% of it was rotating cumulus clouds oh my god - run for your lives! But the shear seems to be the suspect for the low ISE ... and just from my own records it was easterly.

Factoring in the hyperbolic jest might slow the train down enough for you to hop on board. LOL ... Yeah, no I don't know - Will or someone would.. I think Logan 110" ...? which is probably 200% ..spit ballin' ..I don't really have that area of Meteorology on my mental sleeve. haha

Right ...so we're actually still owing - lol... Nah.. in actuality, since the climate is changing and that is showing up with increased PWAT and totaling everywhere in the world with huge growing sample set of data points over 30 years now ( so don't give me that shit... no you the general reader ), ... the instability in the climate sort of makes any kind of statistical argument for "balancing" bullshit. Balancing what then - ? For all we know...we are heading into a 300" per year winter tendency and that was the first one... you get 4 off.... now we'll get two in a row...then we'll get 3 off... and then 3 in row... then we'll get 10 in row, and then they are all rain 2060 ... Or something else altogether. Point is, climate changing means ... you can't use past climate - ...it's a matter of how fast the change is occurring to determine how obsolete the data really is...