Typhoon Tip

Suspicious… It came right over my town and with a flanking line structure and other lenticulated aspects along the backed edge at sun set Solid performer with sporadic limb damage around town blinding rain and hail and overlapping lightning

NAM has that next BD fisting Monday

I don’t know if you guys have noticed this but we are ‘tucking’ into the mid Atlantic and New England at synoptic and super synoptic scales much more discernibly than we ever used to ...something that started happening more noticeably over the last 20 years but the last five years it’s really gotten bad. This summer with the tutts formulating over the mid Atlantic really is just a function of that folding at the hemispheric scale fascinating really

He may not if this becomes the new norm Frankly I think that we could be seeing more of this kind of stuff because the Hadley cell expansion I think these cut off “ tutts ” that Brian refers to are more common actually because what’s happening is establishing a broader band of easterly trades across the Atlantic and that is stranding wave components in the interface between the H cell and the lower Farrell interface latitudes

Seasonal trend is certainly important… But I think in this next shot southern areas have a chance to pace. But aside from the fact those scalar products for the time frame would offer comparable or even hotter temperature metro west than N Vermont - wed/thu

Oh ha right. might not have been the best elevation example. Not sure but the point stands

Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression

At 850 mb? pay attention plus the question regards not now ... mid range.

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE... SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N. But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

Kind of interesting this morning... I see this alot, where a synoptic scale frontal passage takes place, and it gets "sort of" confused/mottled in with being a back-door ...but it's technically not. The BD actually comes in as a separate near-trailing phenomenon during this sequencing cool back scenarios, ..and as this satellite loop nicely demos... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined it's a separate entity . These types of BDs are not the same as those that happen alone.

Decent heat wave signal there... and I don't believe that deeper tropospheric mass transport favors NNE necessarily on that ...when blending the Euro with some portion or another of these recent GFS runs.. This 18z GFS version is probably about as hot as this particular model is capable of being ... pretty much day 5.5 through D12 or 13 averages above 17C at 850 ...with episodes around 20... There one day out there with a 582 dm thickness contour closed off from NYC to PWM...with a 99 at ALB and 98 BOS respectively - I'm not sure it confident but it is July.

Yeah that back door is probably a slam dunk given that mid level circulation construct from central to mid latitude Canada down through the Maritimes… Might as well draw the shades and not even look at another weather chart for about seven days if you’re in for the heat and humidity because whatever the sfc pressure pattern is modeled?… if it’s not cold drizzly butt fisting from the northeast toss it That pattern is going to create a mass discontinuity that will slam into the coastal areas east of the appellations and white green mountains 100% of the time. Now if the models are wrong about the governing flow construct ... Put it this way… It’s like you have to correct for more back door front potential and realization given that flow structure where is if the flow flattens up there then we can ease off

That could be a pretty nasty heatwave out there in the extended if that were just to ever so slightly favor more of a polarward transport… Right now it’s really flirting with doing so ... big heat in Chi town either way

yeah...this does appear to be physically transforming into a synoptic type rain ...but it will likely have embedded enhancements and orange lightning ... It's tough though - I'd like to see this thing survive the nocturnal transformation of the ambient tropospheric sounding as it propagates through the eastern Lakes and NYS toward/through dawn.. If so, we get strata rains with embeddeds ... otherwise, the whole thing could be over sold. Either way... no one asked but I like this pattern incoming...Once we sans whatever that is tomorrow, we end up diurnal mid level lapse rates over stranded SBCAPE/Theta-e and we're probably getting cloud photogenics on a daily afternoon/evening diet for days... as far a drought talk I almost never give that much acknowledgment - tomorrow could over produce and we're behind but no drought. We just don't do west -Texas around our geological circumstance -

I remember posting about the increase in Saharan air-layer into the Americas/hemisphere due to HC expansion and the widening jet channel of the easterly trades related to that over the Atlantic Basin ... observable over recent summers several weeks later ... here we are - needs analysis but this historic plume will be interesting to explain why it is happening

Hate to say that it’s probably not going to look that way. It’s more likely what comes down is a leftover mid-level weakness similar to what we just went through where we had heat lobing over the top across southern Canada and weakness to the S evolving thru the mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley.

I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ... It just refuses... So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ... Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior... I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise?

Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80. KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/ was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see.

A front limping into the region tomorrow ( Wednesday ...) with (probably) subtle but crucial theta-e pooling along and ahead of it needs to be watched for local training. Sometimes trend in situ an air mass, in this case convection proficiency is up, is useful. We seem to have sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates, producing hit or miss gully-washers despite having been challenged with SBCAPE. Tomorrow's boundary stalls/frontalysis and would likely pool DP, so.. implicating more surface based CAPE up underneath lingering lapse structure aloft might be over producing by some ... It doesn't take much for sensitive triggering and usually once it is pulled, some hapless town/county gets pounded for headline. It's funny ...I was on a bike path doing 25 mile loop a couple days ago, and for about 1.5 mile's worth of distance ... it rained hard enough to gray tint the air with sun shining thru at a slant... I got to the end of the path and looped around to find this skinny glaciated CB with a crispy edge ... and as I headed back down the trail, I punched right back through the same rain shaft... At the other end of the trail, I was seeing the narrow CB that was actually being fed by yet narrower updraft edge, was still festering. Hot and dry at either end of the bike path; and I'm of course soaked to the panty-line with wet shoes and mud on my apparel. I go inside and shower and change and chill on the web for a bit...maybe 30 minutes... head out to the car, and that narrow CB was still festering away over the same region of space. There's probably like 2" of rain over 2-pixel's worth of area by then, no doubt. That was all in this air mass with no real triggers that day other than butterfly farts and unicorn dreams... So, I'm thinking/wondering that having that same air mass in place with an actual 'reason' for air convergence to align thru the area should result - we'll see.

It was an interesting meteorological phenomenon - perhaps unnoticed... I don't know. But, typically backdoor boundaries don't come in this way. As you/we know ...there is more typically a build up of higher sfc pressure in/over the GOM, and then mass- discontinuity restoring rolls on down SW fills in everywhere east of the Berks'... taking Kevin out of contention for bigger heat with violent denial.. We did not actually raise surface pressure in the GOM this time, however. We lowered the pressure south ... and this instantiated the discontinuity from the other direction. I think that is interesting, and the NAM has 08 wind directions on the FOUS into BOS yesterday... June sun saved us here in Middlesex. In April we'd have been jammed up with that skud strata right through tomorrow morning but we've processed it out. The zephyrs are still ESE here in Ayer and though it's bounced to 83/71 and is starting to feel it,...clearly by satellite we are still mixing the slab out. The cu fields over the Worcester Hills are moving this way - I almost wonder if we get a late high... but probably Logan stays butt banged. ... not sure what others are noticing but there are GEF tele's and EPS modal suggestions for heat wave potential next week. Sort of 'cross-guidance' support. We'll see.

It's frustrating ... for heat/convection/summer enthusiasts, but, it's understandable in the hypothetical (which is actually more theoretically organized in papers that are emerging, too). Scott once referred to it as the Pacific pee-pond or something hilarious like that..but the humor is rooted in truth as most humor agonizingly does. Look at the global SST layouts for ...what, that past 23.47 years ..heh. It's always 90% of the areal expanse of oceanic mass out there having sfc temperature in gaudy yellows, oranges in reds. Oh, sure...sometimes you get the Kalvin-Hem. waves down there in a faux NINA signature right on the Equator ...like now, eh hm. Anyway, the coupled oceanic-atmospheric model imposes a massive forcing on the atmosphere in the form of "ridge potential" It's not always going to look like a ridge - that is quoted because ...it's more like a base-line restoring force? Kind of like the llv curl vector east of the Greens/Whites in NE... You want measure a wind coming from the ENE (necessarily) along/in that tuck geography, but, if/when the atmosphere need less impetus to get the wind to tuck, look out! Same sort of deal ... the flow over Canada leans on a tendency ...and whenever compensators relax, the tendency takes over. The rest state is more NW than it use to be, because the Pac westerlies of merely vaguely situated farther N ...even if in mere kilometers, if it does so everywhere west of the American continental geography, the wind over the geography of America will respond. The winters do this too.. but what's fascinating is that the HC is also concurrently remaining bloated ...and this is causing increased ambient jet velocities - it introduce a whole bevy of different headaches. But as far as summers, we're getting snow QPF in eastern Ontario under the solstice and it ain't because of super volcanism or cometary impact scenarios. I'm referring to it as the Pacific folding pattern... There were papers written in the early 1990s believe it or not, that were based upon early/primitive climate-change models...that predicted NE Pac ridge propensities leading to cooling over N/A ... it's like we are seeing a perverse verification of that ... but more so in the tendency if you will. interesting.

That's likely going to typify this summer ... The extended range model solutions often bulging the season-continental ridge expansion to engulf the eastern Lakes/NE regions... only to have the mid range solution "cancel" the look - get used to that relay. Then, when those mid-terms get into nearer terms ...say 120 ...96 < ..we end up like the Euro 90+ for at least one afternoon before the next CC-attributed Pac folding pattern dumps another cold orgasm into Ontario to enable the local neurosis all over again... End results, we either average out to the back-ground climate-change that's decimals above normal...or, perhaps +1, ...sort of under the radar. Either way, we'll be above while still ending up with blue in the color coding by NASA when compared/relative to the rest of the world per their monthly state of the climo press releases. It's rather predictable ...

Still don't see much indication that the ridge failure to propagate east of ~ Detroit, old head-game of 2-step to suppress heat for any reason imaginable from ever really getting to New England, is going to change over the next 2-weeks ...but, we'll see. We'll be modestly above normal ...maybe even a tick or two more than that, before the next ablation comes shunning on down...

I'm not going to sit here and arrogantly intone as though I know that is not true... even though I don't think that happens - personally. I don't care if I'm wrong, but this did this the last 5 years Kevin... We had a early eastern heat dome decay and it never came back... some years it was July 4...some years earlier, but there was permanent NW shearing axis that got established after early heat, and rendered the rest of the summers pedestrian... and no muscle was capable of changing the NW jet persistent flow through eastern Canada - when that happens... no. sorry. We'll see if this year bucks the trend, but, I admit to not knowing if this is just a local time-span statistical grouping ( noise-based random faux pattern) or if it's keyed into CC but I suspect the latter "to some degree" - sorry, had to on the pun but here's the rub...we've been above normal despite The problem is perception versus numerology part company ...for a variety reason in the former. But I don't wanna write a sermon no one reads so I'll leave it that.. Simplest terms? Heat haters have been lucky-ish... It could have been worse... The rest of the world has been warmer relative to norms than here. Mm, 'relativity' ...gets ya every time. I've often thought it ironic... that the civilization of western/Industrial foundation most (probably) guilty of anthropomorphic GH terraforming, is being enabled NOT to see the extend of the damage the most - weird. I think it's Gaia turning up the dial on the oven to the 'Clean' notch - which it can't do if the U.S. suffers enough to change it's profligate ways - so it protects us...and makes us think it's somewhere else ... muah haha

not necessarily .., not sure why the ridge in the west "means" that - but ...if you mean there is a 'supply' ? okay - but ...I think it's just as plausible we shunt summer down this year and then have a cold snap and boner lube early snow threats that only smear out into more gradient speed shut down of winter... global warming is f up the baseline pattern climatology and it's all new...and get persistent in that newness how long before I'm not the only one admitting this. btw ...there are noted Mets that are not on these social mediaspheres that already see it happening, too -