Typhoon Tip

Alright I'll fire up a thread...

That would be awesome ... despite the previous contentions over wave spacing ... if reality 'corrects' the models toward the perfect amount of spacing for repeat strikers - Go from neg head woes to riches in extreme rapidity.

I'll say ... my source (PSU ...didn't bother to load Pivotal ) is on D5 and that is quintessential there - wow what a look coast to coast! woa - 50/50 low, anchored fresh polar high on heel, deep MV anomaly with nowhere to go but S of us... and, you're right Will on this run - the Atlantic DOES look more blocky ... I guess it is East-based? not sure what opinions are there... but - if that's true it may change my visualization on matters ...

that was said earlier in this thread too - that often in these rapid succession/Pac relay fast patterns, the lead waves end up becoming dominant as sampling improves coming off the Pacific. Well ?? - So, right now..Monday's system is at last over the west continental areas ... But here's the thing - the flow is not "slowing down" just because Monday may Currier and Ive us... I don't see/imagine that as a delimiter as by the time the "main show" as you say is getting engineered... Monday's thing is tipping cows in an Irish pasture - ..again, I don't think the Atlantic is instructively blocking things and back logging .. just from what I'm seeing -

Will ...Ray ... I'm not sure that Atlantic is as 'backward instructive' with blocking anyway - The NAO in the GEFS - for how little that is worth ... - is really more neutralizing. The AO contribution - sort of unrelated to the initial point - is interestingly vastly negative ... yet, we only see small blocking nodes. I am seeing very deep SPV holes in the rampart /ring around the pole, and I almost wonder if the AO is really being calculated in the derivatives as negative more so by virtue of those SPV depths ... The thing is... that notion/idea may be supported in concept by the fact that the flow is so fast in a -AO, which is kind of not really typical... Typically in a blocking.. retrograde becomes more common which is synonymous with slowing fields down... I wonder if we're being dealt I kind of oddity in/how the negative polar fields or getting to those lower index numbers. But as said ..that's off topic... I do think that the Atlantic offers some openness to interpretation and that it's not as 'blocking' as we think - What are the EPS numbers now ?? I'm wondering if there may be cross ensemble support.

Trying to time and space out features in an 'unmanned firehose' pattern - lol

You can see the difference between the CMC and GFS at 500 mb ... and how each drives their respective surface evolution - The CMC vestiges a negative orientation to the trough's axis slope... --> 985 mb low with polarward frontogenic banding ... quick hitting relative impact scenario clear to SE VT. Contrasting...the GFS slopes the whole thing positive with shearing gobbling up mechanics as the compression/speed of the flow absorbs the S/W wind max... flatter wave with virga to HFD...

I knew it! ...we're gonna have got thru this again around the solstice -

Lol.. yeah, "as is" that's got that whopper flat wave frontogenic banded look... Probably 4"/hr rates between HFD and my house - hahahaha.. Think I'm selling this as just noise inside a plausibility envelope - for now anywho... Like I've been saying, I do like the general 'keep the wave open and fast' look - as it fits the obvious persistence and background canvas. It's a matter of where it tracks, and how much potency gets squeezed into a narrowing impact axis -

Study your water vapor channels over the Pac ladies and gents ... That wave space contributing to this fervor is still 42 to 48 hours from coming inland over California... It's probably okay - I mean, the days yore and having waves suddenly emerge as potency ... ( almost lol buckin' for a refit when the wave came in..) the last most obvious case of that was that 'boxing day' storm back whence - that one seemed to reemerge pretty quickly when the relay over western N/A land-based physically realized sounding sampled it - may be coincidence in that case... Anyway, I think I'm seeing more 'over-assimilation' tendencies if anything in recent years - but this is coming like straight off the oceanic basin and the only thing presently between it, california and japan is open seas

Yeah I dunno... "as is" ...if this 12z version ( and frankly ... comparing the last 4 cycles are the same ) ...anyone N of about midriff CT-RI are getting virga and dim sun despite the QPF paint -

Ha ... when I was but a child ... up until 10 minutes ago ... I used feel that 'crash' sensibility in post-storm-mortem. Lol - The problem is, big powerful systems are - quite literally ... - physically exhaustive to the atmosphere. It takes time to gather mass ... and the big ones, those big juggernaut storm events of lore ... they have a lot of mass requirement ... It's like Godzilla spinning up all that energy and than spraying that plasma at Mothra ..and then the monster visibly collapse in a weak heap to regain its strength - those artists of cinema are mimicking nature. More time also exposes any systemic evolution to ' chances for bad interference '... so in that sense there is also statistica philosophy/rareness in how to look at it.. It almost takes rare luck, too? You have to get lucky that interference allows the time to gather, first.. .then, after the storm happens and the energy is used up, etc..etc.. So there is rarity of all necessary parameters coming together in the right proportion in space and time without other shit gumming up the works. - just asking a lot of chaos to not interfere negatively... Such that the jets are perfect, the moisture content is ideal ... moon and jupiter are rising in the Seventh House ... haha... but you get it - ... Then, if the reality is getting lucky, the "atmospheric super volcano's" and the magma chamber empties. You gotta wait a few millennia for another Yellowstone eruption to recharge - the atmosphere has a fuel-expenditure budgeting requirements. It really does... There's also a kind of ( for lack of better word) transcendent aspect to this love. The models have a kind of prescience about them for these big dawgs - or perhaps more so people do. I've sensed things before the models show them. We noticed this and had group discussions in FAST when I was an undergrad, how big historical events tend to have unusually long lead vision or appeal ... almost like, while the ongoing daily modeling grind of events pop in and out of the uncertainty river over time ... some events seem to be impervious to the erosion - stones in an otherwise uncertainty stream. The 1993 March event had a 10 day residence in the guidance/MRF ensembles ... which is pretty damn spectacular considering the state of the art of modeling 30 years ago.. "Sandy" also had this long lead kind of persistence ...sometimes faded some.. but I recall "having a feeling" two weeks... no lie .. two f'n weeks out, that something like that may transpire - ...there's something about these things that is definitely "synergistic" - it's like the gestalt of the times drove Sandy to realization .. then, the models started honing it after the fact. I think 1993 was like that... So was 1992 - for me anyway... - ...and I know that 1978 was ... I'm sure there are others where there seemed to be a signal that emanated out of the ether before the numerology counted - ... interesting I later began to dread the lulls afterwords and learned that big events lose their fun if suffering an extended tax turned to angst for having had the stormgasm of satisfaction - weather is horrible wife! This got long...sorry... I just wanted to say that as a winter enthusiast... I am a much bigger fan of nickel and dime patterns... steady diets that are non- exhaustive of large scale dynamics

Just also ... those perceived limitations are based not on the future - but on observance of recent trend and verification and model behavior ...sort of blended - Again again again ...that does not mean we can't change for the better. We have to be really careful here.. When we're dealing with 'edgy' flows that ride the fence of either positive or negative interference ... it take less to tip outcomes one way or the other. Nuances become proxy in such delicate matters ... Example, ever so slight post flow ridge response in the west gives a small amount of positive interference back to the wave ejection... The Miami Rule lurks there...but probably what happens is that you get more wave potency along a narrower latitude. - needle threader... Which by the way, this is already gone from a big up the EC Miller-B to needle thread as it is...

You didn't ask me but ... your post sort of provides a nice platform for which one can rant and bitch about this stupid p.o.s. ... Which it is to me... There are three issues with it that are bugging me - 1 ... the 'synoptic canvas,' which includes three metrics in itself: orientation of r-wave construction and d(morphology); timing of individual impulses - hugely also modified by the former; speed of the flow. The bold there is key for me ... I'm waiting to see/giving the flow a chance to change - so far...I am not seeing that, but there is plenty of time for that with 6 days of lead..granted. But the speed of the flow is detriment, as is... As is also the timing ... which we have discussed the 'buck-shot' Pac in a flat flow causing wave spacing issues .. that is also not really resolving very well for me. 2 ... the heights in the deep south... GOM/Florida .. off the SE Coast are running hot and this appears to be anchored at hemispheric scales.. In other words, there's not merely a deep wave in TX building those heights from latent heat flop ... the hgts are high prior to and during these waves ejecting and gliding overtop like rocks skipping off a pond. Even if d(morphology) - delta pattern/change, were to catch up here and start effecting more amplitude/positive/wave interference ... that factor would then "emerge" as a shearing mitigator. The 00z ICON solution shows this without even having .. the entire positive vorticity field is pulled and stretched into a 'continental ribbon' - if you will ... looks like a parade streamer. That is the flow speeding up in tandem and "absorbing" the S/W wind mechanics... that's what that is... ( I call this the Miami Rule ) ... It's not an absolute neggie wave interference... The narrowing of the storm structure and the speed up over the last 4 or so cycles of models ... smacks as related to that.. but it's hard to separate that from just a having a firehose hemisphere anyway - 3 ... that high pressure up there - assuming it is more correctly handled... it is not being assessed as a BL inhibitor/magnitude there in at this range. No way... If that high is right..and this thing comes off the MA at that polarward angle and speed and size... it will hygroscopic annihilate a flat middling faster mover. All these can certainly change in 6 days ...duh, but from where I am sitting... this looked this way yesterday frankly, and seeing these models "shrink" the storm size and speed it up/progressive ... fits better for now.

ICON’s 500 mb is succumbing to the Miami rule ... that’s why it’s smearing that out.

Start a thread and grow up Jesus Christ… Either that or start a new December thread as things got over 100 pages pain in the ass

The storm for Christmas looks like the much better option actually ...

I think Will or someone has a snow chart they can throw out ?? Make me a liar I won't mind..But I do recall getting dissed by that sucker ... I think there was a meso band that was like Willamantic CT to Acton to ASH ...that was noticeably screwed

As far as speed of a storm itself - non issue for me... Of the many jaw dropping snow events I remember, two happened inside of 6 hours...and both were just shy of 20 " ... 1997, 2005... Both put down a 7.5 in one hour ! Big choking deposition rates can happen with extreme rapidity given the right circumstances -

Slowness ?? ...who's talking about slowness.... Oh see why you think that - no, I 'm not concerned with the speed of the storm motion itself... I'm concerned with the synoptic speed between Japan and England...hahaha... seriously though - it's getting the damn event to set up so ideally base on what the models are doing with a fast, inherently non-deterministic flow regime... Two different things -

I didn't forget it ... ha - had some nasty meso neggie bands that kept snow totals down...and disproportionately awarded SE zones with 40" or something... I was in Middlesex midriff region ...Acton, and we got 9" I think so pedestrian.. I was thinking that storm fails to peer with the big dawgs because it did that - But it's subjective of course -

We've talked about this 'conditioning' aspect many times in the past but yeah... Those of us that remember the scorn and spurn 1980s ... a 6-10" was a juggernaut rarity.. We had more than a few storms that decade that were billed as ... " the biggest event since 1978' " and well, I guess 10.4" was in fact the biggest event since 1978 until 1992 or thereabouts... Oh right - yeah..... I guess Cape Cod got clipped by a couple of whitecanes but ... don't get me started on 1987's debacle January that year - the famed 4th period blizzard warning that verified partly sunny in 6 F cold while the Cape was denuded of all life... Anyway, those that came into sentience since that decade which ..probably is a considerable population of this type of social mediaspheric engagement frankly .. they don't realize this handing foot deep snow events out like entitled Pez dispensing ease is unique to this ... auh... maybe it's a climate change thing - I dunno. But it's not the way anyone older than maybe 33 thinks as normal - If you're a 24 year old you only have donut stuffing machine impressions with just a few bad winters... And that's what's interesting about the winters in the since 2000 era: two of the worst winters I ever recall happened since 2000, ...in an era where I've 300 % more snow than I remember spanning decades prior -

...I also just noticed a subtle backing off of the GEFs PNA decline ...and in fact, it tries to swell now in concerted fashion among the members later next week.. It could be that we are seeing an over correction in the PNA go back a bit more positive ... That's code for gee - can we maybe get a western ridge to pop just a little more as that thing gets ejected? Hey, what's that analog site - I'm wondering if 2003's on the list ...certainly looks on the surface like it should be ( pun intended )

What ...? oh ..heh. 'shoulda kept with the ball bustin' - you were winning

Interesting ... I guess that storm did actually get down to respectively ... Hm... I swear I remembered that being a weaker - it may have also been a situation where the damage was already done - so that this was upon exit and not really doing as much as that looks suggest - I remember something peculiar about that storm as being superb snow generation relative to its look either way.. But, this is the 7th and 12z