Typhoon Tip

Shot gun

Uh.. ye- perhaps .. I guess? I was being particular to SNE. I lived here in the 1980s and my butt is still sore and am still in counseling - There was a one event in January of 1986 or 1987 ... actually there were a couple spanning the 1985 to 1990 time span that did this, where eastern Massachusetts and abutting SE NH were all placed securely and snuggly inside Blizzard watch, 4th period... with NWS tickers running across the bottom of screen speaking of power outages and damaging winds in white out snow... The gaiety and good moods this inspired would have made heroine envious - ... nothing One of them was not only partly sunny come go time, but boy lemme tell you, the -9 F cryo- wind prior to this modern culture of canceling everything under the sun over flurries ... really made it! Blistering-blackening faces when walking in mocking quiescence that was supposed to be a week off from school with n-guard snow throwers coming down streets ... Never forgave Walter for that - lol. Something kept happening ... it may have been the state of the art of modeling in that era, but D4 to 7 always had storms too far NW coming off the mid Atlantic.. I can think of a few plausible reasons for why... Be it too much ridging in the western Atlantic. Overly proficiently phasing streams... etc... all these can cause storms to error too far NW. Either way there was a string of busts that were peculiarly similar .. amid the other storm types... Not all storms failed in that era. There was one positive bust that was pretty special. ...early February in '86 I think. We had a forecast for 1-3" of glop/cold light rain going to drizzle. About 1pm it was 19 F with tiny uniform aggregates polluting the air down to 1/4 vis and I looked at my math teacher, who knew I was a weather dweeb, and she arched her eyebrows slightly and said, " I don't think that's turning to rain.." About 6"'s later and choking down at a 1/32 of a mi clip ...amid blue flash swashes leading chest echoing thunder claps, they closed the slopes on Nashoba Valley because of the lightning threat ... I was in the parking lot watching ... actually, 'listening' for my ride to show up, as IP started mixing in... It never really changed to sleet... it sort got half way and visibility came up to 1/2 mi, but it would collapse back to snow and be down to 1/4 mi again... It finally ended as freezing drizzle over a fresh foot of snow around 8pm that night. My old man's commute home from work was 6 hours to get from Arlington Heights to Acton out along Rt 2... It's normally about 22 minutes. I had not seen a bust that prolific for snow since an obscure event in western Michigan not worth mentioning... and didn't see another positive bust so extreme until 1997 ..10 years later. On December 23rd, came the snow-bomb storm. Man... similar situation from a lay-consumer of forecasting though. 1-3" of wet snow and cold light rain... Didn't get the thunderstorm but, we got 7" of snow in back to back hours, book ended by 2-4" per hour snow rates... and in 5 or 6 hours, put down 18" in Acton...and something like 26" up here in Pepperil Mass... Ah...man... may never see that kind of reach around savior again...

yeah...I suppose .. It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do. But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos? It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years. I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84? god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies. You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust? ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled. Lol - This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though. We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal. In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting.

I don't think so... it wouldn't - here is the problem... If it did, there would be a real apocalypse - not just an entertainment that frankly has become immoral as we sit from afar and watch these carnages play out. Whether you realize this or not, for having formulated that particular sentiment/reply .. , the truth is, one assumes protection as being permanent and infallible. If they truly felt or connected mortal fear of the forces of nature ... one would not 'gloat' and relish in such engagements. But, no... unplug this grid, and send a true Ebola pandemic through the population, all concurrent with a Yellowstone eruption... and what-the-hell-else can be thrown in.. how about continental displacement theory ... and when you are staring at the finality of your existence with 20 seconds before assurety - trying saying that...? Truth is, we are addled by convenience across generations and operate within a faux assumption of security that is entirely profligately provided ( btw ..hense GW because of mankind activities... etc etc...), this has become a complacent disrespect of our fragility - one that has been enabled by that same technological bubble said profligate entitlement provides. Yuck. Moreover, ( supposition) since the day's activities are no longer distracted from real virtuosity in survival achievement, spanning too many generations .. we've lost the physicality to remind anyone or group think of the real forms of earth-connect provisional challenges. Interesting...without those challenges, people are actually kind of instinctually turning to find reasons to fill that survival fear void, and they are using the psychotropic society to fulfill it - with fake news it's creepy ...it's soulless vapidity operating purely by manipulation... I don't know ...getting too deep into a principle, ethic and virtue topic for this venue.

There's not much monotonous about this .. There are four active sites on the weather map - I just mused this phenomenon ... it's getting out of control. Almost not in a ha-ha way, too, how people seem to have been conditioned to expect this unrealistically ratched up level of scary drama ... Guys/girls... hey, cinema in nature does not happen at the speed of human imagination or ingenuity - The fact that these have sort of exceeded the expediency of the former, does hearken in my mind to the homage of Humanity's conceits and achievements , specifically as a singular event, as being the real and most dramatic anomaly about this planet.

Mm hm yup.. I was musing this morning ..with climo change, we shoulda coulda sorta maybe be pushing the "september remember, october all-over" heritage yore into something more like "start remembering in september and probably Sandy-f! the hell oughtta the eastern seaboard with increasingly chances due to thermal surplus along seasonal budgeting lagging deeper and deeper into autumns" Doesn't really rhyme nearly as appealingly so .. no, but lagging the cane season isn't exactly a terrible intuitive fit considering. As an afterthought - that does open the interesting prospect ( conceptually ...) for more cold trough interaction chances. Any opportunistic cyclones that venture close to those steering field gravity wells ... heh. Sandy did in fact rapid transition into a cold core as an example ..loosely so, of one of these. Most of big media press coverage focused on the specter of surf, tide and wind impacts... but few may recall, she tossed PWAT over a cold incursion taking place along the western cordillera... and huge snow within 24 hours erupted in the else of WV.. And in fact, one wouldn't be wrong to suggest thermodynamically this occurred while the core was still hot - People are funny ... if there isn't a Cat 4 with a Satan's eye peering up the EC at all times their hands demo maturity and patience by violently typing posts about how the season's over.. ha! But, as drama - junkies that all people born since .. oh, 1955 are ..which is 70%+ of the techno-bathed neon zapped souls of modern population, it really does act like a psychotropic drug addiction and there's no tolerance for having to wait for the next high. Oh the pain of rehab... I guess it's better to tune in for histrionic surge on a weather forum rather than circuiting that fix through Fentenyl

No ...they are not -

Hahaha lol

HMON ... what is that... I guess I could google it - but that model's markedly trended two ways: -- imposes less shear on Paulette such that the cyclone maintains integrity as it penetrates any trough axis - either weaker trough or just less shear in general -- corrects the ending position markedly to the left by some 800 naut mi.. based on what we've been discussing, can't say that's shocking. GGEM did this too.. curious where the Euro is -

almost think so anyway.. 88/67 here and windows open and not a lot of breeze out there to offer ventilation - .. meanwhile it 'sounds' hot out there with those cutting insects ... what? are those cicadas. Almost still with HI of 94. Deep summer. glad the back's broke... but, I guess I'd have to nod that way when theren's snow somewhere on the map. Or perhaps it's just another absurdity you get amid the cuttingly incisive base-line

It also depends on what one is motivated to 'impress' by, too - I mean if the current frenzy proves faux in terms development, we'll eval why... but, my resent opines were not based upon what we are seeing now. It was 'unimpressed' based upon what had happened "to date" - what's going on now doesn't compare. Having three entities concurrently, with modeled bombs either using them or generating new ( and there's yet another impressive zygote wave over Africa about to get injected into contention ) raises the bar legit for me.

there's not argument ... only reality and morons

Heh... it depends on how much 'memory' the immensely diverse pieces of the total climate puzzle are operating with ... Any moderate anomaly, warm or cool ...could easily be smothered under the last 20 to arguable 40 years of hockey-stick climate change. We can't sustain the latter and expect comparatively minute changes in ENSO to mean as much ... maybe? But it doesn't seem to fit basic assumptions about momentum and so forth. If so, it's probably not so much the modulating influence of ENSO, but the total systemic change may be driving the ENSO change and concurrent - by virtue of the same driving/governance - would there also represent some form of atmospheric change. Personally I think the ENSO is meaningless ... as it is burried snugly inside a Hadely Cell that has expanded in the last 20 years ... beyond the reach where the ENSO band ( only 15 latitu N/S of the eq) can really physically interact with the westerlies ..thus impose a physical forcing - ...but we'll see. I bet if we get a bona fide NINA like circulation eddy it would be coincidence more so - but almost impossible to separate in the knee jerk assumption tsunamis -

that's crazy! wow... ~ 500 miles orthogonally SW of the best ( subjective ...) interpretation of where Rene's present circulation center is located, we see cloud motions in cyclonic arc moving at some 30 to 40 kts at CU depth toward the E ... this thing is huge.

Man... hard to resist! The sci fi author in me wants to take "Rene" to the winds of zyberon when eyes lay upon that high res, mid day visible loop imagery - c/o Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18L&product=vis ... At mid latitudes (by convention of geometry being precisely along the 45th parallel as it were...) 1 deg of lat or lon ~ 69 nautical miles. So, applying that across the spread of this URL's layout directly implies there are over 750 nautical miles in every direction, diametrically involved in Rene's circulation circumvallate. That is a truly massive amount of momentum - ....how ironic! Because we are debating the ACE versus 'seasonal complexion' issue as of late in here, and this system seems to mock that debate - lol. That's gotta be putting up some decent ACE ( individual aggregate ) values just by virtue of so much mass, despite a speckled, pallid convection display. I mean look at that - the entire frame in every direction is captured in the fledgling TC's pressure well - that's a very large system. Large systems take a while to gain strength for a host of geo-physical popsicle headache reasons ...but just assuming that is true: once they get that momentum - gee, the sci fi author in anyone is tempted to wonder if that means they also are more resistant to hostility and both become more resistant to weakening but the speed in doing so. I mean, if these extension(ed) outer bands convect and rain out deposition dust and/or mix dry air attempting to intrude into the inner core, they may sort of act like a rampart and protect - I don't know if that's true. I haven't read any papers the specifically show that to be the case for large systems...but it seems intuitively plausible that big systems made be able to moat off the outside hostility of dry air ( possible shear) by virtue of their size. fascinating -

Oh god - here we go again... The problem with this dip shit topic is that people can't think 'integral mathematically' about these subject matters - it's either one or the other. It's not: ground too warm = snow doesn't stick It's: ground too warm to allow ALL the snow to stick... . jesus - ...sometimes I fantasize Brian having a mandatory tutorial - like a driver's test for a license... and everyong that joins has to pass. That is question... oh, 6 on the roster of typical reasons to one may want to suck on a f'n exhaust pipe stupid in here. If anyone says the ground it too warm without demonstrating a clear and coherent qualitative assessment along an environmentally aware perspective, demonstrating an actual facility in nature ... or even hot to balance a g-damn checkbook, you can't join the forum until you learn - Of course, that would mean - retroactively - that I'd be kicked to the curve so - LOL

It's interesting so far, the evolution of Paulette in the guidance.. Firstly, they are all undercooked wrt to the system's intensity as of this morning - ...not sure if/how/when that should be modulating anticipations for this thing, ...if so, in interpretation or in future guidance, et al. That said, all guidance save the NAVGEM ( which ...yeah - ), ensue a weakening trend at some point over the next ... nearer term, and then out deeper in the mid range, a holding on Paulette re-intensifies markedly in some models at that. This attenuation followed by restructuring is because Paulette has one of two options: - it either gets picked up by the trough as a steering influencer, and recurves early... which appears less likely - - it doesn't get picked up, and as it slices through underneath the steering/somehow physically evading that influence, that means that it's time passing thru the trough axis becomes a shearing inhibition. It is also possible - in my mind - that the trough is over loaded in the guidance. The Euro cluster seems to almost hint this, as it keeps the cyclone S of really polarward turn, but also seeing the EPS cluster with a surprisingly coherent cyclonic impression in the coarser pressure pattern evolution as it ends up between the 60th and 70th longitude lines at D7 almost argues for less trough inhibition - ie., weaker.

I still would watch the interior coastal plain of the Carolinas up through VA later in the week or weekend, as Invest 94L "sputters" west as an inverted trough... Remaining weak could still wrought havoc as a general transporter of absolute pig PWAT air... Talking top tier supreme loading .. and even ( at minimum ) weakly curved cyclonic mechanics encroaching upon the continental BL resistance down in that vicinity, would probably trigger subtle/quasi CF mechanical feedbacks - namely, an interface to lift that air mass. Yikes. The thing is, that feature may not actually continue to propagate onto the land... but rather might come to a slow down/stall immediately astride the coast down there ( to some varying distance). That could potentially set up excessive rainfall over protracted hours.. More synoptically,.. the anticyclone moving west to east off NE to the N.. intensifies the longshore fetch containing said PWAT anomaly. I haven't checked WPC risk assessment ... would figure, if this is a risk at all they'd be on it - ha, maybe I should. (edit, looks like the don't issue exc rf beyond D3) Also, I mentioned last night that 'beta drift' could be effectively cutting these cyclone entities through the Atlantic prematurely across the pantheon of guidance types. Not unheard of ..this used to always be a mandatory anticipation when looking at any given168 hour, that some ( just spit-ballin' ) 66% of the times, one can correct that position some unknown variant west/left. http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Beta_drift I don't know if the state of the art of recent modeling somehow attones for this effect, but I suspect they don't because as I mentioned late last evening ... we've already seen three system affect the archipelago of PR and up along the EC this season ...albeit weak, and if memory recalls right all of these were hooked seaward when they too were in their extendeds ... I am seeing some models already hinting at nudging these D6 and 7 positions left... ... Namely, the 00z EPS mean is precariously close to a 'key slot' climo track NE of PR toward the SE U.S. out there D8 ish. The operational is a NE outlier comparing. ...of course, then you have the 06z GFS that seems to want to take everything out there and start corkscrewing track guidance into big closed loops almost immediately - useless no matter what ...

Bingo! no one argued for lower ACE anomaly in the context of climate comparison - ..The relative facet was/is an easy concept to have evaded along the way, and these threads being sometimes many multiples of 10's in pages in length doesn't really draw one's eagerness to plumb back with editorial focus huh. Understandable ... Also, I might add that there is a seasonal prediction interpretation --> expectation involved. When these 'officiate' offices and agencies put up big time top 20 yearly numbers or more, amidst a culture and awareness pathos already in place that is both based upon recent tragedies in the last 10 years, but also the popularization of dystopian natural cinema that we are entertaining ourselves with ( heh!) ...all this sort of hyper anticipates the hurricane season and people are scratching heads now that we are deepening into September during a sputtering year that isn't behaving that way - ACE is a way to substantiate using empirical values ... It's one thing for farmer-john/jane Meteorologists to come onboard and impugn a season based upon his/her 'impression' of the way things are going.. It obviously takes on a bit more substantive value if we have some form of testing discipline that is at least vetted and proven 'sounding' - like Accumulated Cyclone Energy as an index/measure. blah blah... In my own honesty ...I was farmer-john ing it a few weeks ago when I first opined that it "seemed" up to that point in time, like this season was not presenting a very aggressive "development curve" - which at the time meant, ...specifically, individual cyclone prospects were all doing fake out convective sustaining... then 6 or 12 hours later, poof! gone, with naked swirls... all the way across the Basin. I have been citing and theorizing various plausible explanations for that.... for like 6 weeks off and on... but, it was also all based upon my impression. Then, I read a post two weeks ago that contained the abbreviation 'ACE' and went ...well, yeah - now it's showing up as a low anomaly RELATIVE to the case loading. Which ...going back to the impression method... we have not had a high count of upper echelon stemwinders out there this year either. That's the point... folks scrape at it though, perhaps unconsciously so ..kind of like they really want and need that addictive stimulus fix of drama and will turn to stricter evals of phrases to pull crack nuggets that might cover some of the gap between their desire and a banal reality they face. Lol - over stating some but it's fun poke fun - kidding.

There’s a sneaky nasty Hydro scenario setting up possibly for the interior coastal plain from the Carolinas up to Virginia day 4 possibly 5 ... - also keep in mind that the models evolving an inverted trough overtopped with PWAT toward the US Eastern seaboard void of a TC - not sure what the reticence is on the part of the models to close off a circulation in there; there’s ample upper oceanic heat content and it appears that there’s anticyclonic potential over top too. If that region does clothes off it may evolve deeper than these models are disappearing, which would change the entire landscape (obviously) of what impacts the eastern seaboard in fairly short order - in other words models may not have a strong enough system based on what they’re seeing now in the initializations. - also beta drift is being correcting incrementally as Paulette’s left ... Previous systems affecting eastern seaboard this year however weak notwithstanding also needed this leftward correction passing into the middle range ...bear that in mind. It doesn’t mean these will per se but there is a seasonal precedence to over anticipate north turns in models possibly attributed beta drift and also possibly attributed to the models trying to over dig troughs into the Atlantic basin

We did have that big event early January in ‘86 ‘SYZYGY’ storm because it coincided with that particular celestial event. We had 18” in Acton .. seemed to favor Middlesex and eastern Worcester Co for those bigger numbers ... 9” to15” otherwise. It was an impressive storm but it left some on the table because it lasted almost 30 hours yet it didn’t put down tremendously huge snow totals for the duration. I was in Rockport mass having decided to go to the coast to watch the surf and it was very impressive in that regard ... foisting rocks onto shore roads with bomb like sea foam explosions rising over roof tops. Course only 1 to 3 inches fell out there but the drama of the sea was a calculated trade off

Well.. yeah, there's that too - there's no discounting the hyperbole of the internet 'water cooler ' ... no. In my defense, I reiterate: I don't spend as much time engaged. I'm likely less privy to who is saying what and when - nor the tenor of a given threads for that matter much of the time. Which I've managed to start my fair share of electronic fights by bowling into rooms insensitively plenty in the past lol. Anywho, if anyone said that ( bold ) their statement is either just that, hyperbolic, or... wrong, pick. But the season's ACE is low relative to counts - that much cannot be disputed and is non-subjective. Should that change because of a diet of bombs ensuing ... fine - different reality if and when. The other thing - you know, we joke about it but it does perhaps own ... I dunno, call it 10% of the frequency; systemically NHC et al really are more sensitive in the designation due to sophistication of monitoring technologies. More so than even 10 years ago ...which in turn was more sensitive to 10 years prior to then and on and so on. Not only that, I've noticed a definitive tendency by NHC to hold back even invests based upon whatever the models are developing as a recent practice ..beginning ~ 5 years ago. The models are in fact improved enough to hone these areas of interest enough to "trust" them in canvased sense - but that's probably honing observation netting over those regions to where convention in designation being more sophisticated as it is, will tend to ferret cyclones more proficiently. Just something to keep in mind when 'subjectively gauging' the present era seasons. It's a digression ... but, it's also interesting to consider "how many" TC were there really in 1944 ( say...)... or 1938 ... or 1876 ...

Yeah, like I 'implied' in that missive ... depends what region one hails their claims from ... I know from having lived and suffered the vicissitudes of SNE's ( interior-east) climate from 1982 to 1986 ... this regional experience consisted of repeating seasons characterized as cold refreeze over brick Earth --> warm up rain --> frigid cementing... over and over unrelenting, the vast majority ... with low specific snow precip type events. We've had warmer temperature seasons with larger snow aggregation. But like you say, it may have been better in NNE- I don't recall those winters specifically being notorious at either individual event or seasonal scope and scale up that way. But that could be wrong.

I don't languish on this social media platform like it's my primary outlet for human contact or anything ... so taken with the appropriate value: What or who was denying the significance of any impact, in any scope, objective or subjective? Where are you getting that ? Not trying to be a dink - just curious.. Everyone with modicum of intelligent perspective knows that ACE, and 'death,' part company and in fact, don't bare any physical relationship other than pure coincidence. So asking what's 'subjective' anything with regard to that relationships is logically absurd to begin with - it's probably an encouraging sign that no one has. 1992, Andrew ...took place in a very low ACE year - yet ... hello - And what does that mean, '...Normal ACE ...with 15 names storms ... eye-popping for the wrong reason' ? Nothing is eye-popping, that's an interpretation spike. It's about siting, fairly and based upon real numbers, weak anomaly .. subsequently offering plausible discussion points as to why. I agree that the season isn't over and that 'now through oct...' blah blah, but the commentary has clearly and coherently been by context, speaking in turns of phrase about 'so far' anyway. If the season ended now... it's banal and uninspired, but it would be an impression based upon empirical data that colors that illustration - not just subjectivity based upon imagination. What reasoning is wrong - ... I guess what it kinda comes down too is that some "subjectivity" has more realistic roots, and some want to kite away in imaginary winds of consciousness LOL

Not to belittle your anxiety for having suffered 2014, January through spring that year ... because if anything, apriori experience should lend to empathy for your plight. I know what it is like to pass through painfully less then entertaining eras as a winter weather enthusiast - That said, try doing that uncanny thing from 1982 to 1987 ... always - Forgive me if I don't know how old you are, but that is getting into the 30's of years ago so you may have been too young to remember ... Of course there is a regional variance/relativity but I don't think the 1980s were particularly good for NNE either. Whether it is you, or other folks suffering single seasons or even weeks contained within those that seem so horribly unjust .. as though metaphysically attacking that which ( neurotically ) we depend upon for endorphin highs ( haha ) .. I always push a tongue into cheek. The difference between suffering the breadth of 1980s compared to .. whatever injustice it is they are describing, is like a guy that just spent a night in County lecturing Auschwitz survivors about the conditions of their prison cell.