Typhoon Tip

Someone in that Jersey band is getting over 40" ... they were in the 15"+ VIP lounge as of noon and that was prior to that weird pivot-point thunderstorm calibre stationary sequencing going on radar. That reminds me of 1997 Dec 23 rad rates down there, and when that '97 thing passed through here... we got 14" in 3 hours... I can't imagine what that will do down there if that persist through the evening - got to figure that unless we hit something truly historic, that's gonna wanes some how some way. So, I am 26/26 and 1/2 mi vis here in Ayer. 1" so far... This 'fuzzy' area out ahead of that strong-ish band presently rotating N has been snowing harder than rad... It makes me wonder if the higher ratio snow is helping there... And I figure when that band(s) pivot on through we'll stack better for a couple hours in each. getting nasty out there folks -

Looking at the GEFs trend now ... ... we're gonna need another thread for this -

I mean as is ... - also, quite necessary that we fail to keep Kevin's pendulum any hope of equitably in check lol but, I don't think that type of thing will A happen ... but B, if it does? that proooobably has to squeeze a triple point ... The initial cold does have some modest +PP up N helping so I bet that gets feedback on BL resistance just enough.. But man, that may be the nearing the upper envelope of what the Terran atmosphere can physically force. Those are 150+ kt circumvallate winds around the SPV subsuming trough ... frankly, I have never heard of anything like that succeed - I haven't. Subsume physics are delicate wave harmonics - that's like a poor schmuck choral conductor attempting to reign an angry throng of trumpeting pachyderms into song

up here N. Mass along Rt 2 ... vis down to 1.5 mi in 20:1ers so starved of liq phase state they occasionally fall skyward ..rising. already blowing snow off the roof eves, too - even though it's like .25" of fractured dust down 26/22

I'm wondering if the fact that essentially the southern half of NJ is getting boned lower than all that various snow product/guidance and other more standard QPF layouts had going in, is perhaps a trend teller ... I'm staring like good dweeb would at Dupage's hi res vis loop ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) and it occurs to me that the cloud production and fanning out motion that extends just S of LI's length ( which is the axis of 850/700 mb elevated frontal slop ), is probably not going to situate S again ...and those regions are thus screwed - Hmm. Just wonder if it's trending everything NE

I like the "why" part of that though ... as in ... too many doubters that do so defensively because they don't want to admit to a circumstance that gets their hopes up lol ' - j/k

It's real ... I have fairy aggies flitting in the cryo breeze up here in Ayer and looking at that radar ...wouldn't have thunk it's making it down.

Every time I glance across that abbreviation ... I wonder what in the Hades do parades and social-justice/equality issues have to do with the weather

Or 'cracking' up ... not sure which. Looking at that...it appears to be an usually long IB/WAA event over the elevated frontal interface, but..the models seem to hint at abandoning that ascent mechanic - or attenuating it ..such that we don't quite get the same proficiency that we see in those rad animations there, up here... But, I wonder if that's too cutesy with the handling and not real? This thing's a pain in the ass

I'm sorry ... "froude number" ?

Not a bad comedic take there - no. Fits ...heh. But I don't think we can - I think we gotta now-cast this beyotch. These spins are more like a chaos lows inside of a bag of general processes that are too discrete even for the higher resolution models to really nail down - it's like they ( NAM .. RGEM ..HDRP... gonorrhea ..whatever) are too discrete for their own good, because they are not discrete enough - They also have different convective sequencing/physics built into their models than the Global scales - or at least used to ... I also wonder ...as this whole thing wobbles through the heights do fall ... that should in theory destablize the column. So then they're handling this along when suddenly, they see their own tale! They start chasing it - ... 'oh, why shit - better spin up a 150 naut mi wide EOF1 tornado then' Kidding of course, but because their own generate instability, subsequently triggers a convective responses -

It is hard to know what is real and what isn't ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) within that inner chamber of this thing's busted ravioli low pressure. I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution. Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buying," in front of x-y-z ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ... That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case. The rest is what we call the rarer coup de etat winner model - sometimes I just want it to be an ICONic NAM-eramma ding dong model just to chap the asses of modeling conceit. lol

Sure did ... looks like .4 (avg) added back ... just off the top of my head. I never took that seriously though with that NAM .. it's like a dealing with a intelligent, 16 year-old daughter, unfortunately equally afflicted(ing ...as in people around her) with emotionally/insecurity loose canon neurosis with that thing - But the grid (FOUS) was back to 1.83" from storm's main bulk, ... afterward, that 24 hours of glutting richest sets in... That stuff to me - btw - has the potential to come down a bit more appealing than the radar, but I almost want the wind to relax some for that too ..hm. The last event had that look to it, too, as you may recall... but it didn't pan out so well. It looked to me like the lower soundng dried out too much in those intervening periods between the main stuff and the arrival of the beefier arctic desert. I don't know if I see a drying source this time. We'll see... General reader: Logan also has a sneaky warm low level to 35F ... but not until the ballast of said heaviest is in the books; has the impression that the CF probably wobbled NW for a couple hours around the end of bulk goodies. Could see it being 27 F at BED at that tie... Otherwise 32F while ~ 10” falls in 6 hrs on the grid. There occurs ~ 5” in the 6 hrs prior to that 10 ... and depending how much low level mixing in that end pesky interval determines how much of it us 3 or 4”, waffle batter or just cat paws for a brief stint ... Winds are never greater than 40 deg angled ... NE 38 kt sustained at maximum!!! We got us a bona fide mo’fuggass Nor'easta bitches But that’s all out at Logan .. in the stupid harbor. With those grid numbers, the synoptic realism is probably pure snow out toward Cambridge ... and Jer' dawg... and beyond. I just have trouble with 1030+ mb height draped climo -ideal and all those closing centers SE of NYC -PVD line ... That's a compact CF period -

The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go. One can see that if they observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs; like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead. The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritime, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic. It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingly like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is a paragraph that needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "." The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low. You what this reminds me of... ? It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there. Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen. I mean c'mon ..that's what that is.. This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind thrashing transporting a shattered 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm!

This whole thing has gone above expectations for me anyway – it’s all gravy to me LOL I mean I was pretty clear all week that I thought this was a protracted moderate event ...so long it would approach major by virtue of culminating affects. This last day’s worth of runs seem to be engineering more of a major thing ... it’s just still not consistent ...it’s pissing me off I almost wonder if what actually verifies is less resurgence Tuesday night and just a longer front side event ... I think what the models are doing is shearing the initial low apart, and then using the residual upper level mechanics to formulate a new low that then hooks around and clobbers again ... and Jesus Christ ...I don’t know if I believe all that ...?but I haven’t really been talking about it because I don’t know there’s so much about this whole thing that’s f’ed up to begin with where does one begin

Feel the same way bro

“Overcooked Ham” in Hollywood is an expression for somebody who’s melodramatic and over acting a part ...

Its my fuggin phone. Sposed to say ‘doubter-ham’ do you ever heard of the expression “over cooked ham” ? just modulating the trope for snark

Heh ‘posed to say ‘doubter’ but iPhone auto correct so .., daughter may be better. Ha

I dunno ... +5 SD easterly anomaly moving into and up underneath an intensifying frotogenic axis ... all of which is slant wise tapped into the left and right entrance 300 mb extraction jet has a tendency to drop 30” (Dec 17) 2” QPF has more potential than we may over think; and this thing’s duration anyway with all that morphing into a CCB has over cooked doubter-ham bust written all over it in the interest /respect of consensus I grudgingly capitulate to 12-18” but I’m in the deep end of the pool for this adult swim ...

It's snowing 20" ORH-BED-YOU

Stepping back ...however, I'd put that at dubiously over evolved.. The flow being so fast in that pattern means the timing of the N/ stream/SPV subsuming down through the Upper Midwest earlier on D7 has to be pristine to pull that off, and at this range ? unlikely to prevail thru to verification. It can ...sure - just unlikely ..

I think in this case that may be needed ... These -NAO is behaving kindly wrt climate, in that these are modest permutations ... fluctuations in the neutral to -1 ...maybe brief 2 before relaxing ... pulsating on a 5 day periodicity. And with a steady diet of Pac energetics rippling through middle latitudes of the continent - very good petridish... Only, we don't need 504 dm super nadirs parked over JB because that's "too much of a good thing" - I saw the GGEM 's 12z ...It really was close to a very substantial event from the lower OV-NE regions because of the same governing reasons ... narily missing a subsume phase because the separate stream velocties are too excessive.. The Euro is about 20% ( ediit: actually much more than 20 ...) more stream fused/harmonic .. and we see a bomb there.. Really, the ensembles of the GEFs hint a fast mover too - Something is there for Feb 8-11 .. .but in this renewal of a faster hemisphere S of 55 N ... it probably biases on the front half of that range. Hints were there 2 days ago in the GEFs btw...We've been distracted by shenanigans in the foreground.

What a fantastic bomb on the Euro!

I'm seeing a Euro solution that's 'denting' the 850 mb isotherm SE more so than priors and that - as I've outlined before,...- is climate friendlier than that warm intrusion look. Considering having 1030+ polar high draped through Ontario/ N/NE of Maine...and already entrenched in the region, a correction and closer discrete handling of the isotherm/compression toward SE zones ... pretty much has to happen here - sorry. Also, again .. again .. again .. + 1C at 850 with sub above between that level and the growth region of the sounding, and isothermal beneath that... inside of which is a saturated cauldron of dense falling snow is only going to cause parachutes to 1/4 visibility .. You really have to be +2 C through perhaps 100 mb to get all the way to cat paws, if/when fall rates are heavy.. in that sort of UVM parked over isothermal sounding - This crushed the 1997 Dec 23rd forecasters when the 850 was +1 then... I remember that as the then, "ETA" FOUS had +3 at the SFC, and +2 and -1 at 980, 900, 800 mb levels respectively, ... how did that turn out.