Typhoon Tip

That’s why I’m not always that impressed with 99 mile an hour cannons… It’s really much better people can technique and paint the strike zone those are the guys that are unhittable.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let em walk off here

Better …

Wonder what the ocean depth was

Red Sox doing their best to stifle their own f’n rallies …

Just imagine before the end of this century .... winters will mirror this discussion, in the sense that as the winter's age onward the discussion will be - proportionally - how much ice formed before the perennial total ice out.

wow, today really dried out much more so than I thought - I figured for a mix out ratio of 93/67 for high and TD but we are pulling in 62 and 64 at NWS ASOS's Noticing also that the non-tarmac stationary out in "civility" - i.e., over actual land and country - are still tending 70 to 74 ... I'm wondering if this is a situational aspect where the wet Earth is keeping these latter sources more elevated. It's a total setup that uniquely exaggerates the difference between an air port's backdrop aridity against the swampian back fill of Americana lol... Making American Great with telling everyone their high temp and dew point came out of the ass-end of a jet engine ..

Wasn't following along so ... not to step on the jape and pull tongues back away from cheeks but ... actually, seasonal lag is very real in climate. It's why also we get winter after the Solstice - Lol - at least 'used to' ..back before you-know-what. But, September's likeness and/or summery retention is actually consistent, just as March should not be warm yet. Again, the 'classic model' is/has been getting/gotten skewed for CC -related reasons.

It's like looking at the last 6 or so seasons... there's some force trying to put the finale on New Orleans City, a poor marksman shooting from afar, that scene in "The Jerk." "He hates these cans!" It seems before Katrina you had to go back to Camille ... 1960fuggum9, and that hit east of NOLA. Katrina, while doing a number on the dike system there captured the media extravaganza, technically did not hit NOLA directly - no it did not! Nor did it land fall when it was as intense and ominous and potentially 'biblical' the day(s) before when it was a category 5 hurricane. It was in fact weakened to category 3, ... I think ER cycling was the culprit - Anyway way, ...point being, let us not stuff a fu'ing category 5 hurricane up the Delta of Mississippi and drive a 38' storm surge topped off with seismic waves ...up the MIssissippi - NOLA = NO MAS Not saying this for coveting some wanton thing. It's a warning - ... Yup. It's all "bun" and games, until someone loses a half trillion dollars to the point of unrecoverable. Seriously if the "apex" event did strike, it would end that... No question. It would be whole-scale destruction so complete that any value in recompense would have to come down to an entirely new and original concept there. But the point of this seemingly sci-fi portend ... is really not to envision that.. but say it seems like since about 6 years ago, that region of the Gulf has been blasted by 20 Cat 4 monsters or better in the models, but have really only occurred 3 or so lesser gods over primarily barren bayou country just out of harms way.

It's a good question ... There is an ACE parameter defined for seasonal activity. Sort of an on-going monitoring amid the oceanic basin. It's a kind of season's legacy reported in aggregate energy use. 'Accumulated Cyclone Energy,' and if a given season results in low returns, that might carry over. Because principle, ...what goes into quantifying the ACE measurement is in fact a measure of what was 'drained' away from 'the battery' - using/referring to the previous metaphor .. If that drainage has not taken place, than were does the energy go? Does it store in wait? Now, winter seasons on the planet correct for unused energy in couple of ways. One, as the hemisphere cools in autumn into winter, there is an increase in radiative bleed-off to free space. It's just a matter of gradient - in summer hot air doesn't absorb radiation from hot sources, because they are closer to the same energy state. In the winter, the opposite is true; the air is cold and the ocean is hot, so the air can absorb. As the hemisphere cools in autumn the sea-surface temperatures and upper oceanic heat content do fall do to this latter circumstance. The other way is through storm genesis near the interface of the westerlies with the subtropical ..blah blah .. so also would be Nor'easters ... mid latitude cyclones...etc, use huge stows of thermodynamic potential energy. But, storms really are like circuitry that speeds the process of planetary equilibrium from season to season. A low storm season, it seems logical to assess -ACE as a large potential for the next year - particularly if the winter season, for whatever complexity, is less draining. Think of it like this, we can wait out a gas spill and have it evaporate over several hours (radiative transfer), or, we can set it afire and remove it in a few minutes (1938). These event necessarily and perhaps crucially help the ongoing balancing by delivering masses of air to the colder regions of the planet, that are losing mass by advecting that air S ( they are cogs in the machinery of the thermal engine, as it were ). That's the hole parade of weather - warm --> cold..

Gee ... it's almost like there must be a steady feeding tube of drama and if there isn't ( in sensible reality...) dew points gets the node as the new ode to horror - The weather is boring - end of discussion. It is not suddenly worth the engagement because we collectively fantasize some sort of urgency at 73 dps LOL

I've been wondering something that only a dweeb like me probably would with my shimmering gallery in mediocrity for a life ... that while wild fires rage, and heat waves out shine even GW it seems ... nothing has really happened in the Caribbean and Gulf. That region - in that sense ... - has a surplus of stored potential energy. We have to keep the systems in equilibrium, or boats will eventually 'float through the air' and end up crushing a canal through the boat house rooves next to the marinas ... I think of the vastness of Earth's various natural Geological systems - to wit, the atmosphere is a part despite being air and above said ground .. - as kind of having a storm budget or climate. It's just that said 'climate' has never been codified. We only think of climate parameters as temperature, cloud vs sun days, mean wind ..etc. But, there is, in reality, a kind of statistical normal for all these events. Every region is assaulted ( or masturbated with ...depending on one's perspectives ) a certain number of snow storms or hurricanes, and if they do not get one, those governing physics that would normally cause them are like batteries left fully charged as crude metaphor. So a lot of unnecessary poetry to describe a post that could have simply read, "that region has stored energy so a big bomb in that region may result"

It's interesting to have these operational Global numerical models in principle if not detail, all agree on a mid range RI in the Gulf... That's an unusual and very specific collusion of modeling there Lol. I mean, they all cough the Caribbean invest through the Yuk. Channel... and then outta nowhere mid bathtub it goes from an inverted monsoonal dent in the pressure field, to too many isobars to count in 12 to 18 hours. I'd call that a Rapid Intensification. Albeit out in AI day-dreaming range, these disparate technologies appear to be in a state of "Inception" on that - ... Ah... maybe that means the region should be watched though?

Red Sox pitching sucks hog balls …

Yeah no shit. All home stations within five miles are 96 to 99% RH at 73 to 76. sack sticker airmass

Fact the matter is the summer got off to a really good start… Finally avoided a snow in May .. even started getting some warm days toward the end of the month and then of course June was very warm. . It’s just that most of August and definitely all of July was stolen from us so I don’t know C .. C+ summer

Seems like the back should break between D9 and 14 approximately …. Pretty good nexus of cooler teleconnectors out there and after that, the sun is just not the same in September - it’s like asking for a heat wave on April 6. It can happen but the return rate on that’s too rare to look for it. I think in 2014 or so we had a borderline heat wave in early September

Aside from fact that the GFS has been doing that since it’s genome transitioned from the MRF - regardless of season.

Isn't that the name of a bong brand ? - swore it was ...

Sad ... for the world, that's gotta be the end of the road for TRS - right? I mean, the man was 80 ( congrats! being in proximal to that life - ), and I'm pretty sure Jagger's 1028. Richards, as the joke meme goes is being propped up by who knows what .. I just don't see them really necessarily ... anyway, their music is older than 3/4 of the living population. I think Elton John did it the right way... He like announce retirement - does cameos and junkets and such... but it's less egregious to watch. You know, go out with a sense of dignity in a little bit of planned resolve. It is kind of painful to watch when aging celebrities "pretend" they are still pop-relevent. Maybe sad is a better word - but ... Watts was neither interested in celebrity, or casting delusions of grandeur - just speaking in general. Some actually know it ... sorta kid around with it. Like, I think it was Clint Eastwood? Not sure .. .but went something like, "I direct now because look at me - there's no way I could do the other thing" in a ha ha way. Heh, Rolling Stone: "What a drag it is getting old"

Red Sox seem to be fading ... They's dodging losing series by rain-outs/postponements and doing .500 b-ball against the likes of the Rangers'... It's funny how these things turned around. Yanks are where the Sox were a month ago... like literally switched -

It really is kind of cookie cutter conceptually obvious why that is... -NAO intrinsically means a 'curved' tendency to the flow structure of the hemisphere - think lowered AAM. That means mid levels tend to flow more along N-S trajectories, such that it is probabilistically unfavorable for any west moving system to make it the several thousand naut miles without a diving jet/aspect pulling it out ...etc. What is really wanted for an E coast and New England express is phase change in from +NAO to -NAO, over the western limb of the domain... right around as the system is nearing the outer Bahamas. But keeping in mind of course ...these are idealized models. I'm sure at some point in the last million years ..whenever inter-glacial periods had warm seasonal seas, there have been big bombs denuding Long Island in a +NAO ... just as well as one making it across the Basin in a predominantly -NAO regime. It's just a matter of "less likeliness" - not impossible.

88/73 not bad ... may ding 90 yet

Yup ... I noted the Euro nailed that from a previous run, when I saw that shot out

I'm seeing a tendency/ ...reticence in the guidance to develop anything very robustly until after D8 ..9 Meanwhile 98 L is impressive in higher res vis imagery, with clear mid level cyclonic motion to the general region, as well as occasionally revealing tigher llv whirl(s). It's not hard to sense there is shear stress from the E ..but I'm not sure that is the entire limiting factor in the nearer ( 2 -day) time frame, as the wave and attendant low pressure are presently carving their way through a fairly vivid presentation out of Wisc site/ SAL region, which can be seen here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= Then... there is a general +OMEGA anomaly beginning ...or attempting to sweep throughout the Basin https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml I've seen TC survive those downward VP times before ... but usually they are further along in development and sort of carve their way through those two by just having cyclone-centric UVM that moats itself off/nucleated circulation ... like 'disconnected' from that particular larger scale limitation, once it is established. 98L isn't there, but ..it does have a couple days to get its act together before those VP's arrive. It's also possible that the VP layout itself could change. Either way, I suspect this is the reason the models developing stuff but really suppressing their strength during the period.