Typhoon Tip

84/60 That’s entering the transition range - no higher DP T combination is required for the vast majority of the population. You start losing willing participants pretty fast much above that.

At rate things are going... yes

Correct for the typical 20 ..30% Euro amplitude hard on it always has in the late mid+ range and that's our Bahama Blue

Know what would be cool ... heh take that 5,000 foot thick BL atmosphere, transport it to the middle of the Antarctic winter ice cap and release it all at once... coke and popcorn the ensuing shenanigans ...

Starting to remind me a little of that dread summer 2000. Man that year was like stuck on the date of shits May 5th type weather, straight to October 1st. I lived in Waltham at the time, utterly preoccupied with other life bs like finding a decent job and sweatin' this old g-f I couldn't get off my mind. Plus just social life was going in different directions in general. Heh. It was a like I took a sabbatical from Met nerding for a couple years back then. But, even in that state I'm more than merely tacitly aware of what's going on when it comes to weather shit. That summer was shitty most of the time. May not be an exact match or even an analog et al, but the results reminds me of this year so far, ...gets/got cool/wet at least excuse imagined, and then whenever a warm outlook happened, it always shirked by 10 F or just outright failed. As far as this thing on Friday, it is a rarefied ordeal. It happens some times, but this is a cool anomaly nested inside a warmer/much larger synoptic manifold.

Gotta give credit to the GGEM if this works out... Remember? the Euro and GFS spent several runs, like 2 or 3 days ago, where they packed the cut-off ( which is really a shallow feature by the way and should really not be forcing as much mechanical response in the low levels as it is, but what the f ever I guess...) SW far enough to set up a heat wave. The GGEM never bought it. It's been trying to skunge this pattern all along -

I think they may spray down here. Not sure if they do this up there but a hiss and slow moving truck will come down the street here during the warm season. Not often but perhaps its enough to keep the populations in check. I was googin' earlier that the wild fires may be burning Rosemary and Sage ( ha) and driving them away.

It's a nice day when that sets up... It's dicey though. A little too far W and your training. Little too far E and it's SE inflow which doesn't do anyone much good. But you get inside that conduit and it's sun with like 80/68 and cool looking narrow CB towers around.

What I find interesting is that they should all be showing those temp ranges, given the indexes, but this circumstance ...albeit ultimately not injurious and unnoticeable, is highly unusual ha, lot of "u" in that sentence. But it's true. 580 to 588 heights doesn't lend credence to the lower troposphere being depicted. But... we're inside of D4.5 so it's perhaps just one of those rare 1:10 scenarios.

Well in Kev's defense ( oh god ...), he did say ICON...

Define the purpose of monitoring "just the arctic" when the "spirit" of doing so is for on-going climate monitoring. This is a Global problem - it should all be contained.

Maybe we'll get some improvement later on today but these temperature stumping pancake skies aren't the most pleasant out of doors. This thing over the weekend is road kill ...smearing its guts out E of NF yet still... all but entirely in the grave it's reaching a tentacle back to fuck the coastal folk -

Yeah all that .. but that thing out there would make a September 3rd grader jealous. Man it's like completely incongruent. It doesn't look like a June anomaly where it's kind of stuggling ? ya know - this thing demonstratively looks like an apex seasonal bomb is about to happen.

I'm almost wondering if the unusually early and pervasive N/A fires might be causing unusual behavior in the insect fauna in general. not just squitoes... I mean us disc golfers aren't being harassed by those Green Heads on blood recon, either. You gather a couple of them f'n bastards and you own 'em the whole day. They tirelessly fly mobius loops around your head - they're so much fun when you actually swat one with a disc. They're usually pretty bad by late May and we haven't seen any of those, either. Anyway ... like some plant species are natural insect repellents - is it possible burning bush materials might have deterred ?

No mosquitoes here. Which seems rather odd considering the heat's been null and we've had some decent rains this spring. Usually by Mem DW it's an atonal chorus of shrieking whir out there but I haven't seen a single mosquito.

Huh? sarcasm? that verdancy is breathtaking - gorgeous image.

No argument! I was just musing to PF last night, that talking about pattern changing doesn't sell very well after Stockholm Syndrome has taken toll and it's thus quite mythically utterly impossible - haha

Jokes aside... stepping back, waaay back, and just sort of characterizing the last 10 years ... it seems there's a real phenomenon ( however faux due to shorter sample size, notwithstanding - ) to smear the seasons together? I mean that's not statement of fact ... again, just the distant 'illustrative impression' Obviously, winter's colder than summer, duh.

This may not technically be the thread for this but what's up with the Atlantic SST anomaly distribution? West of ~ 40W, the Basin looks like it's in a wildly tripole mode, while east of that ... looks like "no-pole" I suppose it's diametric from W to E, but to see that so coherently so like that, that's fascinating. Get a load of the insidious deep cold anomalies out there S of NS. And notice the near scale topping warmth that's pervasively immersing an enormous area of the NE Basin.

yup!

It's like the Seth MacFarlane movie, "A Million Ways to Die in the West" with Charliz Theron. Only in New England, there's a million different ways to keep it cold and CAPE starved. Lol

I feel there's some chance that a vestigial long-wave axis may set up neutral axis ... somewhere around the Appalachia longitude, give or take. The EPS and GEPs outright do so by D10, whereas the GEFS does as well, however ... positions the "super structures" too long in wave length for either the amount of gradient complexion over the hemisphere, as well as the recent -GLAAM. Not sure we're losing this latter index, so I suggest losing a GEFs isohypses in the means and that might allow more meridian curvature/W correction. We may be dealing with a "seasonal relative negative index" AAM for this summer ... first half of it anyway. Anyway, the short version of that is, a remnant L/W positioned more like the EPS and GEPs would seem a better fit. From a "super structural" perspective, having such a weakness west, constructing a deep layer S flow ( 'Bahama Blue'/EC parallel subtropical conveyor) is a reasonable fit for the standard atmospheric index changes projected to occur over the next week to 10 days. The PNA is supposedly less statistically coherent during JJA, but that doesn't mean it's not coherent at all... It's moving from negative to neutral/positive during this next 10 days, whilst the NAO is moving positive. It's a weak eastern trough signal, embedded in a eastern rising heights (+NAO), so the "telecon arithmetic" likes it Heh, as an aside ... it's interesting to have a historic June MDR activation when considering above. I've always fantasized seeing Nassau to NYC pipeline in place while the MDR delivers a cyclone west ... regardless of the time of year. Muah hahaha. It'd have to be a long shot... longer then the typical length haha. I mean any given moment in time, the MDR is much more likely to fail to recurving early, anyway, but during a -AAM local slow structure tendency, that would seem to make getting this far west odds even longer.

You could tell there was going to be two Invests by the end of today looking across the MDR. i’ve noticed this over the years that those TWs tend to come off in pairs. Often times the lead wave will “eat” the SAL and sacrifice itself for the second one… I mean I don’t think that’s what’s going on with this scenario, but seeing the duple waves, it’s not a surprise to me.

This pattern is breaking down really during this week. This was probably the last of the cold pocket severed drift down over New England butt poke troughs. Even if we don’t get the heat wave at the end of the week, the pattern is different - it’s not going back to this. Tell that to people right? It’s not gonna fly until they start to feel it or see it but that’s what all the available techniques and tools out there are really signaling at this time.

It seems we should all be more concerned with this … Sea ice extent in Antarctica drops to record lows in 2023 Area of the ocean with at least 15% sea ice by year, 1981-2023 Source: National Snow & Ice Data CenterGraphic: Parker Leipzig, CNN