Typhoon Tip

The "furnace" likely doesn't last beyond D7... We'll see but there's pretty heavy ensemble support, cross guidance, for a strong -EPO relay into a +PNA...and a deepening L/W axis over Ohio already underway by October 6. May hold onto southerly deep layer flow along east of Appalachia into the 7th, but we set a +PNAP table pretty coherently in every guidance source by then. It's also believable for other reasons but the average reader's attention span in here stops right he -

It was 2 days ago, but yeah... It was inconsistent before that. It really honed more than the others on the 18z run 2 days ago.

You guys may find this shocking but ...the models are bring rain a week from Saturday

right, yeah. There's a mechanism for rain - it's a matter of the synergy. I mean these seemingly innocuous set up are definitely over-producing more and more. We actually have to be hit by the climate train to admit we're standing on the tracks here? Or, going over the cliff in a bus and while someone yells above the calamity, don't worry ...it's just gravity.

Either way ... very high PWAT feed into a paltry mechanical layout is causing all this strife. wow. Standard intervals, granted... but there's only 10 to 15 kts of wind going around the 500 mb trough, which only has one isohypses ... way up at 582 dm no less. We've been close to 100 F under hgts that high. So CC'able or not, this is whack anomaly to have these coincident metrics create this much problem, either way.

heh... fire up the 'attribution' engine on this one, huh

Check this ... but I'm pretty sure no model had moderate rain all the way to Lakes Region of NH, either.

I was just thinking about that disgusting smell that happens when you mix urban germ phage with decaying trash into turbid flood waters. Nasty nasty nasty. Reminds me - in microcosm of course... - the French Quarter down in New Orleans/"Katrina", when the dikes failed and filled the neighborhoods in a nutritional broth of angry confused venomous snakes, dead animal carcasses, house hold chemicals and backed-out sewage ... clear to the roof-eaves in some cases.

I don't know why in the hell are these 'honorable mention' Darwinian runner-ups. They're venturing under ground into terminals that are in a flood situation

It did this on the last rain event tied into that Ophilia TC, too. It held out to near terms telling everyone that it would suppress but came N in the end. Yet... (for some reason) people remember it as schooling the Euro on that whole affair. This is known as the "Mandela effect" - it's a real phenomenon in psycho-babble, and it's when people's minds fabricate memories that are not what actually took place? It seems we do a lot of that in here when it comes to modeling performance. LOL

Short and sweet if you believe the guidance… It’s like it just comes in floats houses away and it’s completely sunny by 18 Z on Saturday with calm breezes.

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

18z GFS water-boards western CT

Well... if we get a big snow month, I'd be more impressed if the individual events were something more dense than 29::1 snow ratios

It's physically impossible from the snow growth area of the sounding because colder air can't physically hold enough water vapor. In order to have enough water vapor would mean the air mass is intrinsically above freezing. There are some upward exceptions, such as forced up-glide over terrain from a water source - like driving a Pacific 'river' jet through the snow growth region of the sounding up and over the Sierra Nevada ... etc.

In honesty ... I don't follow him. Is there some history of impropriety and stuff ?

Placing a dramatic micro node of negative over the southern tier of Lake Michigan might be a nod toward suspicion there

Might be a little harsh .. I mean, I'd prefer to actually hear and have time to process Schilling's reasoning for divulging the information before a Hannibal Lectorian distinction haha .

That's what I was wondering .... why is Schilling announcing on his behalf? was he asked by Wakefield to do so - huh

To borrow from "War Games" ... that strikes me as "...Computer enhanced hallucinations..."

Not sure the "Euro trash" sentiment is justified.

Beyond D10 ( or so ...) there's was a mode switch overnight. The previous mass fields were orienting like there was no new signal beyond the warm up next week - it was more like fading to an echo but still there. That would lean toward a warm reload mid month... etc. Now, the overnight ensemble means of all three (eps/gefs/geps) took on semblance of western heights and JB trough axis. Nothing very amplified but a wholesale change nonetheless. Do with it what we will until there's established consistency -

Hohoho man... NO shit. That 'hook low' at 500 mb thing out there would probably incur multi-faceted problems from the M/A to New England should that happen. Fantasy fantasy fantasy

Under good conditions I've come to find that's the car top threshold. Clear sky, calm wind ... 37, metallic car tops will start to either solidify the dew that's there, or 'sponge frost' a layer. Maybe 38 if the night's long enough. Right around 35 for sky exposed lawn not under a tree.

Mainstream mentalities are utterly oblivious ... carrying on in their relative Industrial-provisional bliss. Which it really is an apropos description ... It's such a deadly combination. Create a bubble within a surrounding super structure that injures the super structure in such a way that will inevitable cause the bubble to "pop" - meanwhile those that created the bubble ( and continue to perpetuate its existence the human species ...) are provisionally soothed and molly-coddled and alleviated from ever seeing the consequence of said injury until it is too late? That's really what the Industrial Revolution ... no scratch Industrial Revolution ... it was always how we powered it mechanization.