Typhoon Tip

The 70 foot extension latter tipped off the local authorities unfortunately. SO, re-instated.

We're still seeing a telecon projection that implicates ( at minimum) an AN first week of March. It also provides a favorable era for that synergistic heat event phenomenon ( which I seem to be the only one that gives a warm car seat over) but cross that bridge. Yet the operational versions won't fill in the canvas out there to the extent the former provides. It should be noted that we're talking beyond D9 so - maybe that's why. lol. So far, it's milder but shy of what it can be in that telecon spread. We have a wavy ambient polar boundary from roughly Colorado to western Ontario in these operational runs. Cyclones running up along, each one pressing periodic cold front/air masses side-swiping along 40 N. Southeast of them, diffused warm fronts in the pressure field - more like smears toting a fuzzy wetness. That looks like weird behavior for this time of year. Typically ...warm transports between late winter and mid spring are dry warmth. You get get 70 F over a DP of 30 F type thing. Red Flagging ..etc. But these warm sectors in the operational runs bloom misty light QPF miasmas ... yuck! I want a 3 day 65/25 DPs ... 70+ can happen more so nowadays than 1990, but still not a realistic expectation. Need another 15 years of climate denial before that reality starts gut punching spin artists... It seems we're in a eerie modeling decade where they put out solutions that are remarkably well correlated with what no one wants, with creepy proficiency. God I hope we don't get into another summer where we too rarely see sun, buried under 82/78 subtropical nut sweat skies.

Oh, this was the old one - you're attempting to verify. See, you have to actually say something like "you idiots notice the date ? " ... LOL Yeah it was off by a factor of 2 compared to verification. So, not particularly good. That means it was forecasting twice as low as it actually became. It was right about the trajectories though. Interesting.

The problem ( the way I see it ) so far with all these fossil fuel offset methods, is that humanity is not (apparently) doing so for the right incentive. The roll-outs so far are overwhelmingly and quite obviously motivated out of a capitalist's vision, an aspiration and opportunity for profit grabbing - creating wind and solar enterprises. This needs to change. The incentive needs to be rooted in correcting what caused the problem, not attempting to create gains out of losses - gain vs loss in this context is not money. The cost is the ability to be alive. Instead, costing 50K for suburban sub-colonial-sized homesteads to install panels won't work. Saving humanity from a certain wholesale set back, if not an extinction event won't work that way for a litany of obvious socioeconomic limitations vs the untenable circumstance of population vastness. Humanity is not connecting with the problem; if they did, this would be all but free, spatially comprehensive, and urgently implementing. GW --> CC is an existential threat, the immediacy of which escapes the 'humanity brain'. The ET is clearly not ubiquitously understood, or believed, ... perhaps some sort of mentally untenable, all the above. It is or may be, intellectualized, but the scale and degree of the planet's future portrait escapes and isn't perceived as an ET - therefrom, not enough flight or fight response in the collective sense. Whatever mechanism triggers mode changes in the larger group behavior, in this case ... species scaled, until that happens ... formulating enterprises out of an existential threat is tantamount to ransom. Shy of that only wasting time.

Yeah ...again, I read that it's going to replace by mid summer. But it was also tied into a platform change too - I'm not sure how accessibility to J.Q. public and/or subscription ... all that will be effected by a different product arrangement. I think there's an AI embedded too, by the way. changes comin'

I suspect that -NAO results down wind and time post an eastern continent/mid latitude burner pattern - should that occur. Lawns may even be in the process of tinting green ... crocuses opened up and a daisy here or there ... then reality - That's not atypical post early warm ups. The troposphere moves down stream/elevates ...etc, but than if the hemisphere pulls the plug on R-wave structures in that same window, that warm plume ends up stuck between 600 and 200 mb near Baffin Island and we're stuck in a butt-banged spring. The Euro control run has a heat burst ... exceeding 576 dm non-hydrostatic ridge that is very much an R-wave anchored scenario into the first week of March. It is the control run, but frankly ...the telecon projections have been setting that table for a number of days now ( last couple days of Feb through about the 6th of March), but the operational version won't show up for the party. I've read recently the current control run is going to be promoted by mid summer fwiw - Either way, the blocking between Mar 15 and May 15 has been a plaguing spring killer around here for years of repeating tendency - regardless of any leading/traditional correlators too ( don't get me started..). Seeing that showing up is worth it to monitor do to that awareness, but ... my point here is that there's some conceptual reasonability in seeing some sort of -NAO ... Whether or not that is tied to an AO umbrella index hat ...I don't know - I'd like to get the control run to verify just so I can bust out my road bike and some outdoor runs ( speaking of working out). Open some windows and breath. We can deal with a 2018 if we have to later on.

It's the content of the 12 pages ...

This poor thread ... It is verifying, as there's a system on the charts now passing inside the mid range. I guess a better verbal approach at the onset ...like don't use "biggie" adjectives might have been tactful but boo hoo. Success! Unfortunately it's only because its cinema up to this point ... failed to deliver drugs to the drug addicts, that there are now pages and pages of what really amounts of plebe-witted rabble. The virtuosity and usefulness to actual weather and analytics are lost in all that vastly more valuable din. Also, I'd remind that although population is sparser, the eastern half of Maine is part of this forum.

Last couple of modeling intervals continue the fight between the EPS/GGEM vs the GEFs. At this point ( seein' as everyone cares lol ) ... I am fully and spiritually done with winter. It's probably a sad homage to climate ...that I ever find myself in that mind space on February 20th. But this kind of obvious seasonal breakdown thing, happening earlier and earlier ... it just is what it is. And now combining that the sun angle is climbing so fast, and how it'd take a delusional nimrod not to see/suspect that the planetary state of aff"airs" will warm up given least excuse imaginable ... the sense of futility is undeniable. Anyway, I'm hoping the EPS isn't off but ...

I realize some of you have kids and life complexities therein that require you work out at that hideous time of day - hats off man... jesus

Tell you what ... remove that bowling ball over the Panhandle of Texas and that large scoped synoptic scenario feeds back on itself and we'll be 85 throughout the S Lakes and N OV ...

You should get a winter/second residence in New Mexico as a chicken farmer

No

Crack the Norway buds by the equinox... I wonder if that'd be a regional record. Not something anyone likely logs

Agreed ... you now full disclosure. I'm also spooked a bit by last year's global heat surge. As far as I'm seeing around the world, that didn't like settle back and prove just a transient weirdness ( so far ...). Maybe that happens, but air, and sea did that? - "everywhere all at once" I'm surprised that doesn't resonate more than I think it really should. We just witnessed a planet ... a whole planet, detonate. Something went on that is still sending theoretical climate craniums scrambling to explain. The implications of which unfortunately can be scary. - oblivious Not trying to conjure up a Michael Bay dystopian theme here ( we can certainly go there, LOL ) Still, I can't help but wonder ... - is the hemisphere like "spring loaded"? As the sun creeps N across the latitudes by day, perhaps we near some threshold ... Suddenly, an unusually fast and furious seasonal recovery flashes over. We did it last March - we just didn't get the Eurasian weird heat over the U.S... China was like 95 F for week around the latitude of D.C. ( I think it was... ). Anyway, I don't think based on the awareness of the growing catalogue of outre global events ... that one should assume a 1990s climate portrait of a terminating winter into a 'bowling season' last hope before green up. That doesn't seem to be supported to put it nicely -

The latter mid range and extended GEFs are completely out of phase with the EPS across the continent. It's pretty obvious those recent GFS runs that walled off the warmth with a denial-enabling mix ptype boundary is just part of an overall tendency to speed the flow along and slip the N/stream into a different R-wave signal --> more confluence... --> eternally winter ... okay. I guess it could. The teleconnector projections (numerical) however, from all three ensemble systems, sides with the EPS. The signal is a warm one for the first week of March. The operational version of it ( and the GGEM by the way...) are less like the GFS' atmospheric Laurentide Ice Sheet facade sitting W-E through our region. Assuming the warm weighty side transpires, does it couch a more exotic warm run? For the record, I conjectured that for "concept awareness," not intending as an actually outlook. Synergistic heat bursts ( which by the way... Saskatchewan and N. Scotland both saw a heat bursts in January, where both registered 70 F ... pretty sick at those latitudes) behave like emergent properties out of noise. The models process atmospheric input in complex geophysical processes, out in time, but synergistic emergence is a by product along the way - similar to chaos/spontaneous materialization. They are present as long as background ... but disappears when it evolves into something else and abandons. I don't have much confidence in either the GEFs vs the EPS/GEPS. Simple logic would lean toward the EPS and GGEPs, considering that even the numerics of the GEFs themselves are warm. But the GEFs has contaminating transient trough modes within that general construct - which can sometimes take place, too. Flip a coin I guess. I'd rather 2012 knocked on the door but heh -

Not sure how people assess model performance ( I suspect by their own entertainment quotient -) but this thing for the 23rd/24th ? the models began corrected toward the synoptic evolution we are seeing by the time this was crossing through the D7 horizon - That's outstanding performance, non-subjectively. These are tools - just in case . It's no different than pining over one's ratchet set every 6 hours. Haha... no seriously... it's that ridiculous. They were never intended for one of these social media "psychotropic" phenomenon - if anyone cares to plumb deeper into this, they should acquaint themselves with "The Social Dilemma," and/or other documentary coverage like the 60 Minutes expose into the premeditated engineering efforts by social media enterprises, a story that broke when engineers with morality and conscious came out about creating an addictive medium. You get through that course work ... you see something similar happening in here - if perhaps inadvertently slipping into the same phenomenon. Folks get caught up in this as a adrenaline and dopamine release... some how, a codependent elation response does take place. We joke about it but it's really actually true.

Right - don’t have to imagine it

man, that looks like a prelude to an ice storm for f's sake

In fact these operational GFS runs aren't even waiting around for that ..they seem to be outpacing these new teleconnector motifs. I think it's pretty squarely Scott's fault -

If we tandem a -NAO with the -PNA, like these immediate last 2 or 3 model cycles have begun doing ( particularly in the GEFs) than kiss the warm up good bye. Oh it'll be milder ... by virtue of the sun alone, but the confluence steps up and that won't allow much warmth N/E of OV

Depends on the setting. The sun really is an offset factor now - much more so than even a week ago. Take a similar afternoon back then, and you wouldn't have that same affect. Today we disk golfed Buffum. When exposed to the wind off the backwater lake the chill made it horrible. Get around the other side of the groves where the sun blazed and wind dropped off, the fake warmth lied its way to 60.

We lost orchard crops, twice - stop dude

what - you guys just invent interpretations based on the moods of the moments. Statistically, Aprils and Mays have had significantly delayed green-ups in the last several years ... because despite whatever early balm flashes occurred, there was growth stunting cold deep into budding season.

Both it and GFS do