Kevin Reilly

Let's see what we can do but at day 700 with less than 1" of snowfall we are getting there. I cannot ignore the cyclic nature of this though. It most likely will change and around here and it often changes abruptly when most have given up (this guy). I do think interesting times are ahead!

How is Baltimore and DC doing anyone have their days?

Well, I feel sometimes my opinions are being ignored, but this is our new normal with the Warm Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes and many other warm bodies of water are in complete control of our weather patterns. We can hope for a window of 2-4 weeks in February when the bodies of water hopefully cool down. We are also heading for Lake Effect snow season in February and March too. Things without doubt have certainly changed since the 70's, 80's, 90's, and past 23 years. Our snowstorm chances are like trying to track a hurricane strike in the summer along the East Coast. How about that 60-foot rouge wave out in California? I have not read up on that closely. What caused that? Waves out there on average 20-40 feet pretty cool but no doubt simply tied to the raging Pacific Ocean. Let's hope for snow! Back to my remembering the Blizzard of 1983. I am currently walking down my street in Northeast Philadelphia just surpassed 16" still coming down 2" an hour now we have graupel and lightning cool!!

I am done with that read I have gone through 2009-2010, 1996, The Ice Storm Jan. 1994, currently reading February 11th, 1983, fun storm.

Time to work on it though alas it is only December 30th for this January 7th window at this lead.

Thats a Chaotic look there: Lots of split flows pretty good split there in the Gulf of Mexico along southern branch and another out west near Los Angles heading all the way NNW to Alaska and another flow branches out into southern Arizona down to Mexico City. Now east of Edmonton and Calgary there is a pretty pronounced flow SSE from Northern and Central Canada pushing SSE down in the Mid-West and moving SSE into the Eastern United states this did not happen almost at all last year as I remember. So, maybe just maybe we are about to make the turn the cold air up north is well... relatively cold though and most likely will modify quite a bit. At least it is a bit more interesting to look at. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

Lake Tahoe

Ditto that up here in Southeastern PA I saw about 5 flocks of geese heading SSE the other day before the heavy rain set in. I always calculated and observed this, and it snowed like 2 to 3 weeks later after I saw the flocks, just something to keep an eye on. Mother Nature always knows first!

Where is the cold high up north this would most likely be a cold air would it not?

Might want to take a look at 2009-2010 too to see exactly what was going on in that winter since it is an outlier over the past 20 years at this point. I mean 2009-2010 things were set up perfectly and held off an on for 3 months.

Nino: Let's just throw 3 inches of rain on top of your 20" of snow because that may be reality truly this winter! I would think that would cause some issues for the Mid Atlantic.

Finally, finally!! Some Agreement!

So, what we would be looking at is a continuation of what we have a cold shot or two otherwise a warm phase Nino.

On the otherside of the globe?

1.54" here in Media was out and about down route 1 into Springfield awful drive roads have a lot of run off Darby Creek rising fast! On the way home blinding rains approaching the Blue Route at Route 1.

I can't wait for later January and February when these storms are all snow!

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years. Every year as we come out of Christmas like we are all looking for some dam late presents or something!

I am thinking the first step to a better pattern is to get rid of the damm cut off low that moved west over the mid-west and is now beginning to move east.

1982-83 also featured one biggie as well. That was truly a one and done season. February 10-12th 1983 to be exact.

You missed one 1995-1996

Last I checked most of our snow climatologically speaking falls January 15th to March 2nd or so.

It often is in the long range or what that the old GFS?

Just need that high to be north of New York State can we manage that at this lead? It would be the first time in a while and I am sure the models would have no idea what do with that. The Models would be like "Oh Shit look a cold high!"

Well said! Think when the last time was a cold front blasted out of the Great Lakes and swung through well offshore with 35-45 winds behind it with temperatures falling from the 40's down into the teens and single digits.

As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. Also, the way things are set up right now a pattern change is not just going to happen overnight it will be a step back down into winter and it will likely take at least 10-15 days from this point to get rid of all the humidity, Pacific Air, Gulf of Mexico Air, and also Atlantic Air. It's just not the Pacific Air in the Lower 48 this year.