GaWx

12Z CMC also hits Bermuda hard with center passing just to the W. That’s a big shift W for it 12Z GEFS mean shifts E significantly with virtually none near the CONUS and the mean centered on Bermuda. Some brush SE Canada. 12Z UKMET passes 150 miles W of Bermuda while moving NW. *Edit: 12Z Euro passes 150 miles SE of Bermuda with little effect on Bermuda. Then passes well SE of Canada. 12Z EPS centered around Bermuda with only a few W outliers near CONUS.

The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018. There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous late Aug and Sept. are on the way.

The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ peak there though others are ~1018.

Other 12Z: ICON: TC PR on 8/14, recurves 69W, heading NE S of Berm at 180 CMC: misses Caribb, recurves 64W, no land hit Euro: TS E PR, recurve 67W, just SE of Berm. as cat 2, goes SE of Canada UK: recurve 69W; turns NW at 28N NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.8N 68.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.08.2024 108 20.8N 68.7W 1009 32 1200UTC 15.08.2024 120 24.0N 68.7W 1008 40 0000UTC 16.08.2024 132 25.4N 68.4W 1005 48 1200UTC 16.08.2024 144 26.7N 67.5W 1003 44 0000UTC 17.08.2024 156 28.0N 67.2W 1001 44 1200UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.7N 67.9W 1001 41

These are the seasons with 25+ ACE through 8/8 along with their ACE through 8/8 and their 8/9+ ACE: 2024 41 ? 2008 40 106 2005 74 171 1980 40 109 1966 34 111 1934 28 51 1933 54 205 1926 47 183 1916 42 102 1899 25 126 1887 34 147 1886 36 130 -Avg ACE 8/9+ is ~~105 since 1950 but only ~70 1900-50. Longtime avg likely ~85 -These 11 seasons averaged 140, 55 above longtime 8/9+ avg -Of these only 1934’s 8/9+ was BN -3 were NN. 7 were AN (including 1916 since NN 8/9+ was only ~70 then). 6 were MAN (50+ AN for their time) -So, a fast start like 2024 favors a strong rest of season. These years suggest range of total ACE centered near 200 for the complete 2024!

For record-keeping purposes, here are a few 12Z operational runs (most I had posted in the main thread) fwiw: -12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. -12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda -12Z JMA recurve and moving N near 70W -12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda 12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W.

Taking its sweet time:

0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go!

0Z Euro: heading N at 240 at 40N, 67W aiming toward E ME, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia

The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs.

Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31 ———————— Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)

I checked my garage for the 1st time since the rain ended on Wednesday and noticed I have standing water in a small portion of my garage (along a wall) and that doors to a storage room on that side are wrinkled on the bottom despite the water having receded where they are. (see pic below) Also, cardboard boxes for things I’ve stored in there for years are damp up 6”. As stated earlier, I got 10.9” from Debby over a 3 day period.

I’m saying that regarding peak strength 2023-4 and despite similar ONI, I don’t think of 2023-4 as comparable to 2015-6 and 1997-8 due to a much cooler RONI. Therefore, I wouldn’t expect the 2023-4 SOIs to be anywhere near as negative as those for the other two. The other two dipped to as low as -20s for monthly SOI vs 2023-4 dipping to only the -10s. Thus I’m not surprised. When comparing to other Ninos of similar strength, I prefer to look at RONI. So, I looked back to 1950 to see what other El Niños had a RONI peak similar to 2023-4’s +1.49 peak. That’s when I found these with similar peak: 2009-10: +1.57 2002-3: +1.46 1994-5: +1.44 (I inadvertently left this out) 1986-7: +1.54 That’s all I meant by them being “close”. Close in RONI strength. I’m not saying they were necessarily close in any other way except for lowest SOI months as these 4 had lowest months in the -10s just like 2023-4, which makes sense from a RONI based strength point of view.

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. The next couple of days of ensemble runs will be telling as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

Based on RONI peak, 2023-4 wasn’t even close to 15-6 and 97-8 and thus wasn’t that strong of an El Niño: 23-4: +1.49 moderate/strong border 15-6: +2.39 well into super 97-8: +2.36 well into super Based on RONI, 23-4 was close to 2009-10, 2002-3, and 1986-7: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 251 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 315 AM EDT. * AT 250 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILSON, OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BAILEY AROUND 255 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE EMIT, SIMS, LUCAMA, BUCKHORN RESERVOIR, AND MIDDLESEX.

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 221 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 300 AM EDT. * AT 220 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SNOW HILL, OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARMVILLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EUREKA AROUND 225 AM EDT. BLACK CREEK AROUND 235 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SARATOGA, LUCAMA, BLACK CREEK, EUREKA, AND STANTONSBURG. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES