GaWx

Warm top 100m layer is still hanging on: like a weak Niño (though neutral on relative basis) above solid La Niña:

The brand new BoM is the same as the prior run, with a weak dip to -0.2 for SON: Although it was absolutely awful last year by being way too warm, I have to give credit when credit is due as this model has been spot on with a June/July pause in cooling since way back in late March: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/archive/20240330//plumes/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr.png

The ENSO weeklies are still about where they were two months ago for all regions with Nino 3.4 still at +0.2. It literally looks like a very weak Modoki El Niño although that’s not taking into account where they are relative to very warm global tropical SSTs (need to subtract ~~0.6): 17JUL2024 21.2-0.5 25.7-0.1 27.5 0.2 29.4 0.6

Month by month NAO 1950+: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Only 6 of last 45 (13%) winters have had a -NAO when averaged out over DJF (sub -0.25): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1. Coincidentally or not, they’ve all been when DJF averaged sunspots were under 35. But summer NAOs have done opposite since 2007 with -NAO dominating! *Typo corrected

Your map for Nino 3.4 is showing it averaging in cold neutral (ironically about where RONI is). In contrast, OISST is still +0.23 (consistent with CRW map I posted):

Is that CDAS based? That’s the only thing I can think of off the top of my head that MIGHT explain this. Looking at Nino 3.4, your map has it BN. But OISST/CRW dailies were still AN there with warm neutral at last check. Unless this is some kind of RONI deal??

Even with it using 1991-20 base, it looks too cold. The oceans are very warm dominated vs 1991-20 as they’re near record highs overall as you know. Your map shows a much more balanced look.

It depends on what you mean by “high NS”. I also think there will be a high # of NS with 21+ NS being doable as I picked 21 in the poll and feel good about that prediction. I consider 21 a very high #. But 28+ NS, which is near the record of 30 and has been predicted by some, is another story altogether imo with 21 NS the record high number for 8/11+. Let’s say we get #4 prior to 8/11. The record # of 21 8/11+ would mean 25.

Indeed, as a result, these maps continue to suggest a strong -PDO this winter regardless of what many WxBell CFS runs have shown. Note that I’m saying “WxBell CFS” runs as opposed to just saying “CFS” runs because Tropical Tidbits’ CFS runs have shown nothing of the sort and also show a strong -PDO. The WxBell CFS algorithms have issues.

Yes, it is a most wonderful time of year, “season cancel” season. “Season not too active” calls right now are not at all backed by recent history, especially with Atlantic SSTs at or near a record high. Even during last year’s record Atlantic warmth, July was quiet in the deep tropics. We’re now in a climatologically slow period. It is supposed to be quiet in mid July with SAL often dominating. I picked 21/10/5 in the contest and still feel good about that prediction, which would mean a very active to hyperactive season. But OTOH it is going to be quite the challenge for those predicting (near) record #s of NS (upper 20s+) to be close. The largest # of NS on record forming 8/11+ is 21, set in 2020 and 2005. But even if a ridiculous # of NS were not to occur, a bad season would unfortunately still be likely.

The rainfall here has really been adding up quickly. Related to this:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0835 PM FLOOD 1 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.10W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC TRAFFIC MAPS REPORTED SEVERAL FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ——————— PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 913 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0912 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA 911 CALL CENTER MULTIPLE VEHICLES STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON EAST VICTORY DRIVE. ————— PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 941 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0905 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS OF VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS NEAR THE 600 BLOCK OF EAST HENRY STREET. ADDITIONAL FLOODING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ATLANTIC AND E. 41 STREET, E. 56 STREET AND HABERSHAM STREET.———————————— *Edit: It finally slackened to mainly light rain, which is still continuing, at ~9PM and nearby lightning appears to done. Looks like I got 2”+.

Further to the above post (also the lightning including nearby CTG strikes just now has become frequent): FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 818 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 GAC051-210215- /O.NEW.KCHS.FA.Y.0047.240721T0018Z-240721T0215Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA- 818 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM. * WHEN...UNTIL 1015 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 816 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH.

For 2nd evening in a row and over last hour, my area is getting good rainfall from a series of thunderstorms. Heavier rates of rain today though yesterday’s still gave me ~1” due to long duration of moderate.

Yep, analogs of seasons with no Aug NS prior to Aug 11th still suggest 3-6 Aug NS. 2022 had none but that was an extreme.

Some good news for the Keys coral. After a record warm late May by a large amt and already into bleaching levels, 2024 SST (black) actually cooled to below the bleaching level (purple line) in June thanks largely to cooling from increased clouds/rainfall and only is near the bleaching level so far this month as opposed to above it. This is well below last July (see below in gray):

During the heart of the DB (1934-6), the PDO was mainly + and ENSO was neutral.

Don, Impressive, indeed! How much would you guess has the increased UHI been a factor? Metro LV now ~3 million, which is nearly double 2005 pop. It’s 10 x pop of 50 yrs ago. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23043/las-vegas/population

I’ve been receiving mainly moderate rain from several thunderstorms over the last ~90 minutes. The CTG lightning is currently rather frequent with it causing a power blink a few minutes ago. No wind to speak of. Typical summer storms.

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11. Highest # of NS 8/11+: 21: 2020, 05 16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50 15: 2023, 1933 Opinions?

The last 3 days’ SOIs have been sub -25. Despite them now bottoming out and about to rise back up, the July complete month might end up slightly negative. What’s been driving the recent strong -SOI days have been very high Darwin SLPs. For those who don’t follow the SOI closely, a developing La Niña favors +SOIs in late spring and especially summer+. AN Tahiti SLP and BN Darwin SLP correlates to +SOI. But recent Darwin SLPs have been anything but low. On the contrary, we just had 2 days of 1017.55+ with today in highly rarified territory at 1017.85. How rare is 1017.85? Since 1991 and prior to today, there had been only 4 days with Darwin SLP of 1017.85+: 1018.35: June 22, 2004 1017.90: July 25, 2023 1017.90: Aug 5, 2023 1017.85: Aug 12, 1994 Note that all of these other 4 1017.85+ Darwin days were during an incoming or already existent 1st year El Niño. That’s far from the case now. Since 1991 there’s been only one day during a year with a first year Niña immediately following a Nino that had a Darwin SLP >1017 mb: the 1017.15 mb of Aug 12, 1995. For Niña following Nino, highest daily Darwin SLP: 1995: 1017.15 1998: 1015.35 2005: 1016.00 2007: 1016.00 2010: 1014.65 2016: 1015.25

Chris, Are you able to change the climo periods from 1991-2020 for the bottom 5?

I agree and fully empathize with your view. It can get tiring reading wish-casting (no reasoning) over and over. The extreme example imo is Bastardi, who I can’t recall even one time forecasting a solidly warm NE US winter and sticking with it. That hurts forecasting credibility due to a perception of a lack of objectivity. OTOH, one can also go too far the other way, too, by becoming a “contra-weenie”. Contra-weenies will purposefully always forecast the opposite of what weenies want, whether well supported or not. Like is the case for weenies, forecasting credibility is reduced and is also tiring to read. In summary, having either bias be too dominant is often damaging to forecasting credibility. Although you usually provide excellent support for your posts and are a wonderful contributor/very knowledgeable (these threads wouldn’t be the same without you), I feel you did border on taking on the contra-weenie role at times for last winter’s forecasts. It almost seemed you had joy in emphasizing warm winter expectations just to stick it to the weenies. The best imo are balanced and are not pushed too much in either direction by emotion/desires. Just look at data as objectively as possible, whether or not the data is suggesting an outcome one wants.

The seemingly never-ending lagging of OISST Nino 3.4 continues: (even the RONI version of this would only be down to ~-0.3 to -0.4)

Nobody yet knows what part of the big 2023 step up was due to Hunga Tonga. Plus HT effects are projected to linger for years with only a slow reversal occurring.