GaWx

12Z ICON still right at TB but with 10PM EDT landfall, which is 2 hours earlier than 6Z run’s midnight

One variable will be the timing of landfall with respect to the tide. Here are the predicted astronomical tides at TB: Low at 2:19PM High at ~6:50AM at ~2.8 ft Looks like it is projected to landfall only ~2 hours before high tide per the slower Euro but more like 5-6 hours before per several other models. That could make a 1 foot or so difference as far as highest water level (combo of surge and tide level) with Euro being ~1 foot higher for the highest water level just due to being closer to high tide.

Wouldn’t the highest surge for Tampa Bay be if the eye were to come in just to the north like it did in 1921 rather than right at TB?

That much of an increase in the lowest SLP would be nice to see. However, I saw this elsewhere: “Recon passed about 8 - 10 miles south of the eye, lowest pressure was 941.6 mb extrapolated with 107 kt winds.”

Check the latest TWO out…they raised the chance from 30% to 50%: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas continue to become better organized. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for further development. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

0Z UKMET: Bradenton (similar to 12Z)

Fortunately for memory purposes we have the very recent Helene clearly reminding us that a 938 mb H is easily low enough to be an extremely destructive monster. Really could even include through 950s easily. A 902 is just too strong to even comprehend.

If these folks will even have heat available. I’m thinking about those affected by Helene, especially in W NC. I’m sure they would rather not have the cold anytime soon.

Milton has produced 12.8 ACE over the last 48 hours!

Since 1851, that area between Pt Charlotte and Tampa has had plenty of hurricane activity from storms moving N just offshore causing significant storm surge (1935, Easy (1950), Alma (1966)), coming nearby from overland with gusts up to 120 (Donna, 1926), or landfalling below cat 3 (1944 hit right at Sarasota but as high end 2 (105). Then there’s 1921 that was a MH (120) that passed by just to the N at Tarpon Springs and gave Sarasota 105. But there’s technically no MH landfall I could find right there since at least 1851.

18Z Icon and GFS: St. Petersburg (a couple of miles N of 12Z runs)

The 12Z Euro ticked slightly S of the last few runs with a Bradenton to just S of Tampa track. The 0Z went right over Tampa. Every tick S helps Tampa Bay for surge and maybe winds somewhat but rainfall may be worse.

The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only a 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions? @WxWatcher007@purduewx80

The 12Z UKMET gives Tampa 12.1” of rain!

0Z Euro: Tampa late Wed night

0Z UKMET appears to be a little S of Tampa and pretty similar to 12Z. Waiting on maps.

Each GFS run today has trended further S.

Total ACE in the Atlantic basin today was 9.3!

Milton has generated a whopping 6.8 ACE during the last 24 hours! Look for it to be even larger tomorrow.

Actually, I don’t have a lag theory. I read that the stability increase is supposedly instantaneous.

Thanks. Despite this, the SSN going way up to over 200 this month, and increased stability due to high solar supposedly without a lag, the Atlantic hurricane ACE will be at record high levels for the 2nd week of Oct.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 28.0N 76.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2024 36 27.9N 76.2W 1003 31 1200UTC 09.10.2024 48 29.3N 71.7W 1004 29 0000UTC 10.10.2024 60 30.8N 67.0W 1005 29 1200UTC 10.10.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

12Z main global runs: Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River) UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon) Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening *So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles *From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA *Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning

0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed 0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning 0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night 0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon Edit for Euro: 0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening Edit: N to S: GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET -GFS remains quite a N outlier -UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.