GaWx

0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC.

Now progging 120 peak! Also, a little slower: Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days. The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETINTropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420241000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY......RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THEFLORIDA WEST COAST...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...22.9N 95.1WABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICOABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

I’m leaning to S of Tampa at this time due to the ICON doing well overall this year as well as due to the UKMET and ICON, the two best with Ian, being S of Tampa. Icon hasn’t had even a single run near Tampa or north going back a number of days. Same with UKMET though it has had Milton on only a couple of runs. If those two models trend to near or N of Tampa, I’ll then change my leaning to Tampa north.

18Z Icon: barely N of 12Z with it just N of Pt Charlotte Wed night (a bit later)

Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC FriGFS/Euro just N of TampaIcon/CMC Pt CharlotteUK between Ft Myers and Naples

12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (near GFS)(a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)

N

12Z UK: between Naples and Ft Myers Wed (similar timing to GFS/Icon and much faster than CMC), which is N of 0Z’s S of Naples but is still way S of GFS’ just N of Tampa and a little S of Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte; remains furthest S of these 4; reminder: UK was furthest SE for Ian several days out and did best fwiw: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 95.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.10.2024 0 21.9N 95.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.7N 94.5W 1007 24 1200UTC 06.10.2024 24 23.3N 94.5W 1006 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.8N 93.1W 1004 30 1200UTC 07.10.2024 48 21.9N 91.9W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 60 22.3N 89.7W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 72 23.1N 87.4W 995 34 0000UTC 09.10.2024 84 24.5N 85.5W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 96 25.9N 82.8W 993 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 108 27.9N 79.6W 994 52 1200UTC 10.10.2024 120 29.2N 75.9W 991 61 0000UTC 11.10.2024 132 29.5N 70.4W 995 50 1200UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.0N 64.5W 1003 43 0000UTC 12.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

12Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a hair S of Icon) on Fri, which is N of the 0Z’s Naples and much slower than the Icon/GFS’s Wed

The faster the motion for a given intensity, the less strong the weaker side is with more asymmetry typically.

AN temps would be good for recovery efforts in hardest hit areas of the SE from Helene. The last thing they need is a harsh winter.

12Z Icon: near Pt Charlotte, which is further N than the 0Z/6Z that were between Ft Myers and Naples

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite. The UKMET is as fast as the GFS but it is the furthest S.

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

0Z Euro ~Port Charlotte, S of 12Z’s Sarasota

Icon has had landfall SW FL since way back with 12Z 10/1 run. UK has had SW landfall last 2 runs (first runs with this). The UK/ICON duo, especially UK, was furthest SE with Ian days in advance and were best by far. Euro and especially GFS/CMC were significantly too far NW (GFS/CMC had several runs way up in panhandle!) Food for thought. Euro next!

GFS OP could just as easily swing back to a weak system on the 06z, and I will beat a dead horse and reiterate that we may see big swing between mere 6 hour runs due to the tightrope in which this system will have to walk to become a strong hurricane. That being said, it is a bit ridiculous that a global operational run intensifies a system to the brink of major hurricane strength within 72 hrs from TCG. I really hope that's just a random crap OP run. The GFS so far is on its own with a central FL landfall: -UK, CMC, and ICON are all S of Ft. Myers -JMA 72 (end) implies SW FL most likely -GFS and CMC were way too far NW with Ian. Euro was also quite a bit too far NW but not as bad. UK (SW FL) was the best. Icon 2nd best.

0Z UK: best for track, not intensity! Much further S than GFS and near CMC. This goes ENE S of Naples (12Z was between Naples and Ft Myers). Reminds me of Ian, when UK was furthest S days in advance and ended up best with Icon 2nd: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 22.4N 91.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2024 60 22.4N 91.0W 1003 30 0000UTC 08.10.2024 72 22.2N 89.3W 1001 27 1200UTC 08.10.2024 84 22.8N 87.4W 998 30 0000UTC 09.10.2024 96 23.6N 85.0W 997 31 1200UTC 09.10.2024 108 24.8N 82.5W 997 34 0000UTC 10.10.2024 120 26.5N 79.6W 998 36 1200UTC 10.10.2024 132 29.3N 75.2W 999 45 0000UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.6N 68.7W 1000 47 1200UTC 11.10.2024 156 31.7N 62.6W 1001 47 0000UTC 12.10.2024 168 32.8N 55.9W 1002 39

I forgot to post this earlier, the 12Z UK: (0Z out shortly) NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.8N 90.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2024 72 23.8N 90.2W 1003 26 0000UTC 08.10.2024 84 23.6N 89.1W 1000 31 1200UTC 08.10.2024 96 25.0N 86.3W 998 31 0000UTC 09.10.2024 108 25.0N 84.8W 998 32 1200UTC 09.10.2024 120 26.7N 80.8W 999 35 0000UTC 10.10.2024 132 27.1N 78.6W 1002 38 1200UTC 10.10.2024 144 29.3N 69.9W 1004 35 0000UTC 11.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

The last half of Sep through Oct has had a significant increase in mean ACE during the last 20 years while Aug-early Sep hasn’t seen this increase.

This lid coming off/4 week delayed peak was so well predicted by the Euro Weeklies a month in advance. These Weeklies (not the pre season Euro seasonals that predicted record ACE) have been absolutely stellar all season. These same Weeklies are predicting the 2nd half of Oct will drop sharply back to normal during a period when climo is dropping significantly meaning a peak of ~9/20-10/16. So, hopefully after this Gulf threat the CONUS at least will be safe though one more W Caribbean storm late this month wouldn’t be a shock. Also, there could always be an unpredictable/rogue very late threatening storm.

Hopefully this will convince believers that the conspiracy theories are fake news and keep the lies out of here like you requested. A conservative NC State Sen. is begging for folks to stop believing the junk: North Carolina State Sen. Kevin Corbin (R) denounced what he described as “conspiracy theory junk” circulating about flooding in western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene, referring to allegations about the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) stealing money from donations, among several others. “PLEASE help stop this junk. It is just a distraction to people trying to do their job. Folks, this is a catastrophic event of which this country has never known,” https://myfox8.com/news/north-carolina/lawmaker-on-helene-conspiracy-theories-please-help-stop-this-junk/amp/ @Daniel Boone

There’s a ton of fake news circulating. I recommend you and others treat with skepticism anything like this that you hear/read until if and when it can be verified by credible, non-politically biased sources. FEMA has per my Gov (Kemp) been very helpful. The FEMA rep I talked to was very helpful and completed my app.

I called FEMA. -Since March, FEMA has been paying $750 for food losses from storms. Must be done within 30 days of storm. Has nothing to do with whether you have NFIP. -For those in GA who are wondering, FEMA confirmed residents in certain counties in GA (including mine) can apply. -Fulton/Dekalb not on list (at least yet), but Richmond is as well as many others. You can still apply before your county is on list just in case it gets added later. -For all states call 800-621-3362 or apply online at http://disasterassistance.gov/ and click on the red. On phone they’ll tell you if your county is on list. - I think power had to be out 3 days but don’t hold me to that -Supposedly most get the $750 if power was out long enough. It is all or nothing. -If denied, can appeal