GaWx

Don and others, Like often is the case, these WB CFS maps almost always have S Lake Michigan about the coldest on the map and N Lake Mich/N Mich (only ~250 miles N) about the warmest. Then they get much colder to the north of that into S Canada. That right there’s a warning that WB CFS maps are highly flawed in addition to tending to be too cold.

RE: Big ACE producers, wiith background mean SSTs still quite above normal across the MDR, we could see some late records fall. I believe Lorenzo holds the record for furthest east Category 4 or greater after September 28th. But you would think it would be very rare for an MDR system to reach the CONUS with ridging giving way to a more typical Fall pattern / October troughs over the central Atlantic. The only one I can think of in recent decades is Matthew. Yeah, but Matthew didn’t become a TS until almost to 60W. There are several others that formed after 9/25 between 50 and 60W and that hit CONUS. So, hopefully any remaining MDR TCs form E of there and then recurve safely. -Hazel (1954) formed at 58W on Oct 5 -1898: formed at 58W on 9/25

Good news is that this late in the season it would be unprecedented in the records for anything becoming a TS E of 50W in the MDR to make it to the CONUS. The latest for that is 9/25 (in 1893). But these could be big ACE producers. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies going back several weeks seeing this big increase in ACE for late Sep through 1st 1/2 of Oct! So, hopefully any TCGs out in the MDR occur E of 50W. The CONUS is not safe though as the next one progged to form in the Caribbean/Gulf is a concern. Hoping it won’t be strong or better yet never be a TC. But the 12Z GEFS is fairly bullish for something forming late week unfortunately. And the 12Z EPS is rather bullish for this a few days later.

That appears to be a new record low for your area per the map. Based on the map, much of ATL area’s low was from 1/25/1978 (in blue). The map shows KATL’s record to be 981.4 mb from that. Their lowest hourly from Helene was 983.7 (29.08”) at 6AM. So, it appears KATL just missed the record as I don’t think it got much lower between hourlies since the center was well east of there.

Storm total here including indirect in advance: ~5.25” over ~48 hour period. Just under half the 11” from Debby. No damage/trees down here but there are a good number of trees down in the Savannah area, some on houses. Just the typical debris/only a couple of larger branches in yard. Still no power (out for 60 hrs). ~70% were w/o power at highest but ~1/3 of those have it back. So, ~half still have no power. Not difficult for me to handle power outage when considering comparison to much worse hit areas in/near FL Big Bend, Valdosta, Alma, Augusta, SC upstate, W NC, E TN, W VA, and any other areas hit hard. Prayers for those especially in the hard hit areas. And hopefully that’s it for hard hits not only this year but for years to come in the SE and all over.

When comparing to the pre-Helene low SLP records of all time for any month and from any kind of system (see below), it looks like new all-time record low SLPs have likely been established by Helene in/near the corridor from the FL Big Bend through the GA cities of Valdosta, Warner Robbins, Macon, Milledgeville, and Athens. Helen, GA, probably just missed its record. The prior records were Idalia of 2023 (1049 mb) in the FL Big Bend and mainly from the 3/13/1993 “Storm of the Century” for the listed GA cities. Record low SLPs (pre-Helene)(map will change once Helene is incorporated): Dates of record low SLPs (pre-Helene): (3/13/1993 in green) (map will change once Helene is incorporated):

Mainly because Helene was moving at near record speed for this area, 30 mph! That along with its big size, which slows down weakening, and that it was still strengthening almost until landfall near guaranteed it would be very strong far inland though I was sorry to see it happen. Still no power here (longest outage since Matthew of 2016) but can easily handle as it pales in comparison to what the folks in the FL Big Bend, in/near Alma (GA), Valdosta, Augusta, and especially the W Carolinas have gone/are going through. Prayers to all who have been badly affected. Hoping this is it for anything significant in the SE US this season. Enough is enough!

I think that regarding decreasing stability that the much lower SSN should be considered as a possible contributor. Keep in mind that Aug was way up at 215 and that it still was quite high into early Sep: 2024 09 01 2024.668 182 14.2 29 37 2024 09 02 2024.671 195 20.7 26 33 2024 09 03 2024.673 180 21.2 20 23 2024 09 04 2024.676 174 26.1 21 26 2024 09 05 2024.679 182 13.4 16 21 2024 09 06 2024.682 189 13.3 20 25 2024 09 07 2024.684 168 17.5 25 30 2024 09 08 2024.687 171 18.7 20 26 2024 09 09 2024.690 157 19.2 24 27 2024 09 10 2024.693 149 12.9 25 31 2024 09 11 2024.695 153 15.4 29 34 2024 09 12 2024.698 145 11.8 25 29 2024 09 13 2024.701 118 12.8 27 32 2024 09 14 2024.704 116 11.4 25 32 2024 09 15 2024.706 102 14.7 26 31 2024 09 16 2024.709 142 16.2 22 27 2024 09 17 2024.712 141 13.0 30 38 2024 09 18 2024.714 110 8.6 28 33 2024 09 19 2024.717 109 12.1 34 42 2024 09 20 2024.720 126 13.0 29 35 2024 09 21 2024.723 131 9.6 20 26 2024 09 22 2024.725 144 13.7 13 17 2024 09 23 2024.728 130 7.4 20 26 2024 09 24 2024.731 141 12.2 20 24 2024 09 25 2024.734 141 9.0 20 25 2024 09 26 2024.736 145 15.8 18 22

From NHC at 4AM: A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

From NHC at 4AM: A University of Georgia weather station in Vidalia, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). An ASOS station at The Savannah International Airport in Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

After the earlier very high gusts 2 hrs ago that took my power, there had not been a repeat of wind gusts nearly that high until ~3AM, when they returned. Power now is out to over 100K customers in the GA portion of the metro area, easily the worst since Matthew.

After the earlier very high gusts 2 hrs ago that took my power, there had not been a repeat of wind gusts nearly that high until ~3AM, when they returned. Power now is out to over 100K customers in the GA portion of the metro area, easily the worst since Matthew.

Wow, check this out from the NWS:0124 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W 09/27/2024 CHATHAM GA ASOS SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A 65 KNOT (75 MPH) WIND GUST. THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 44 KNOTS (51 MPH).This was certainly not predicted.

Wow, check this out from the NWS:0124 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W 09/27/2024 CHATHAM GA ASOS SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A 65 KNOT (75 MPH) WIND GUST. THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 44 KNOTS (51 MPH).This was certainly not predicted.

Huge gusts of wind (sounded like 50+ easily) just now and I just lost power. It is roaring. Hearing bangs on my roof here in Savannah. Worst since Matthew it appears.

Huge gusts of wind (sounded like 50+ easily) just now and I just lost power. It is roaring. Hearing bangs on my roof here in Savannah.

Probably one of the highest surges in over 100 years.

Power outages in Savannah have increased rapidly the last hour. I’ve recently heard two transformers blow. I don’t expect to have power too much longer. Winds have already been gusting into the 40s. Lots of debris falling on the roof, roaring wind sounds. Kind of worrisome especially it keeps getting worse over the next 3+ hours or so as predicted. Earlier there were water spouts coming inland in the area. A very long night here already and the storm center is over 150 miles away currently!

Even though this area is far from the center (over 200 miles), sustained winds/gusts (to 40+) have increased substantially the last 30 minutes. Im hearing loud roars already from the wind. Stuff falling on my roof. I just heard a nearby transformer blow. I expect power will likely be lost at some point here, perhaps very soon. GA Power outages are now starting to rise rapidly. This is going to be a very long rest of the night. It has already been a long night with the tornado warnings/heavy showers/gusty winds earlier. Stay safe folks! Just heard another transformer blow. These recent high winds have been mainly with no rain.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 950 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1015 PM EDT. * AT 950 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF TYBEE ISLAND, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HILTON HEAD ISLAND, BLUFFTON, TYBEE ISLAND, BELLINGER HILL AREA, WILMINGTON ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH AND HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 854 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 854 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED OVER ST. CATHERINES ISLAND, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, BLOOMINGDALE, KELLER, BELFAST, FORT MCALLISTER, SUNBURY, BURROUGHS, HALFMOON LANDING AND ST. CATHERINES ISLAND.

I had some rain last night though only ~0.25”. But late this morning I got nearly 2” within just an hour! It stopped for now. That brings me to ~4” since yesterday. My street flooded. Hoping not too much more will fall the next 24 hours, including from the more direct effects of Helene.

Even though we’re coming up on DMAX, I don’t think it will strengthen 20 mph in under 6 hours considering the latest recon being only 1 mb stronger, the way it looks right now on IR, and considering its huge size with TS force winds extending out up to a whopping 345 miles! Sand Key, FL, just had a sustained wind of 45 mph! Due to that huge and growing size this storm has a ton of power for an 85 mph storm. The overall impact as it is now would probably already be equivalent to a cat 2.

Released 2:19AM EDT: 970 mb/slow drop URNT12 KNHC 260619 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024 A. 26/05:48:10Z B. 23.56 deg N 086.49 deg W C. 700 mb 2843 m D. 970 mb E. 195 deg 4 kt F. OPEN NW G. C24 H. 60 kt I. 315 deg 28 nm 05:39:30Z J. 064 deg 54 kt K. 315 deg 36 nm 05:37:00Z L. 72 kt M. 131 deg 53 nm 06:03:30Z N. 230 deg 80 kt O. 131 deg 47 nm 06:02:00Z P. 9 C / 3064 m Q. 14 C / 3046 m R. 5 C / NA S. 1234 / 07 T. 0.02 / 2 nm U. AF309 1409A HELENE OB 04 MAX FL WIND 80 KT 131 / 47 NM 06:02:00Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Maybe I’m not recalling correctly, but I can’t recall a storm for which the NHC was notably west of the Euro, GFS, and UKMET for multiple runs. The CMC is now similar with its east trend and the Icon is even further east.