GaWx

The 18Z GFS landfalls near Crystal River (similar to 12Z) but isn’t til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.

Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that formed 10/1-10:

After that further S track near Yucatan, 18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

Now I can see the 6 hour maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Also, just about all prior runs were landfalling on SW FL.

Thanks. I’m curious about it for several reasons: 1. It could be yet another NS adding a little bit more ACE during this upcoming week, a week that’s projected to be the most active 10/7-13 since at least 1951 coming on the heels of the 2nd most active 9/30-10/6 ACEwise. 2. Because the entire atmosphere is interconnected and because this wouldn’t be too far away from Milton, it’s conceivable that it could have more than a trivial influence on Milton in some way(s).

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z

-So, with Dec 3” or under (6 seasons), rest of season averaged 10.6” (range 2.3”-17.7”). Note, however, that 16-17 was only barely above 3” (at 3.2”) and the rest of the season had 27”. - For >3” in Dec (8 seasons), rest of season averaged almost 3 times as much, 30.1” (range 21.6”-64.1”)! - So, the high end of the Dec 3” or less rest of season range (17.7”) is actually lower than the low end of the rest of season range (21.6”) for Dec greater than 3” seasons! @donsutherland1

Strongest is highly likely too strong imo based on the clear tendency of these insanely strong hurricane model runs to often be 30-40 mb too strong. Of course even if 40 too strong, it would still be a very dangerous 930-940 cat 4+. Example: many runs for Helene were 900-910 and it verified a still very strong but more reasonable ~938.

12Z Euro: back N to Tampa from Sarasota 6Z/0Z and with it stronger than those runs. Landfall is near 8PM Wed.

Thanks. It is weird that Pivotal and WxBell for whatever reason tend to have much higher SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general vs TT. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution. TT has most 12Z GEFS members in the 950s-970s vsPivotal’s/WxBell’s 980s to 990s. I guess the programming algos are different.

12Z GEFS tells me these things: - Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa - Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational - GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

1. Yeah, CMC hasn’t been good. It along with the GFS was the worst for Ian with panhandle tracks only a couple of days before landfall! I feel that the CMC is the worst of the 5 most followed globals (even the JMA MAY be better overall) but still worthy of mention mainly for trend if for nothing else. 2. Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024 TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.0W 1003 30 0000UTC 07.10.2024 12 22.0N 93.2W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.10.2024 24 21.6N 91.6W 997 37 0000UTC 08.10.2024 36 22.1N 89.3W 993 40 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 23.0N 87.2W 989 41 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 24.2N 85.1W 987 42 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 26.2N 82.7W 987 48 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 28.2N 80.1W 990 49 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 29.4N 76.9W 987 71 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 30.9N 70.9W 992 53 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 30.6N 65.4W 1000 54 0000UTC 12.10.2024 132 30.6N 59.8W 1007 36 1200UTC 12.10.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

Meanwhile, 12z CMC shifted slightly S to between Ft Myers and Naples vs its 0Z’s Ft Myers and yesterday’s 12Z’s Port Charlotte.

Thanks. Yeah, I on a closer look just had noticed it landfalls a little SE of Cedar Key as opposed to right at CK. Thus I revised that post. But it is a significant shift N, regardless. Yes, this would be a very bad track for TB.

Indeed. Landfalls way up only a little SE of Cedar Key! Significantly N of last 2 GFS runs.

Icon, Euro, UK, and other globals are much better for track than intensity although following their TREND for intensity is quite worthwhile. Hurricane models are generally better for absolute intensity although they tend to be too strong as was the case for Helene. They’re often 20-40 mb too strong.

Thanks. And Icon was 2nd best with Ian with much further SE progs than GFS/CMC and further SE than Euro. UKMET was best with Ian with its almost perfect much further SE progs. So, I’ll be following upcoming runs of UK and Icon very closely needless to say. *Corrected

Interestingly, the 12Z Icon is a bit further N and about the furthest N of any Icon yet with it close to Sarasota vs recent runs near Port Charlotte.

From new NHC discussion: slight S track adjustment, which makes sense because recon found Milton a half of a degree further S than the 5AM EDT track (22.5 vs 23.0). The new (11AM) track center point is now a little S of Tampa vs right at Tampa on the 5AM track: The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

The week 9/30-10/6 in 2024 is going to end up with ACE that is 2nd highest for that week going back to 1951! It was essentially twice the mean for the climo most active week of a month earlier!The only higher ACE for that week was in 2016, thanks almost entirely to Matthew, which was a MH (cat 3-5) during all 7 days.

0Z Euro: Sarasota, which is ~40 miles S of 12Z’s just N of Tampa; So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa. 0Z Summary from N to S: GFS: just N of Tampa Euro: Sarasota Icon: Port Charlotte CMC: Ft. Myers UKMET: Naples

0Z CMC: still slower than others but sped up some to Thu night instead of Fri; back S some to Ft Myers from Port Charlotte at 12Z So, at 0Z, 3 of 5 (UK/Icon/CMC) most followed globals are significantly S of NHC

0Z UKMET (use for track only): sticking with its far S track (keeps reminding me of its furthest S progs for Ian) with landfall still near or a little N of Naples; it did initialize at 0Z ~20 miles S of actual position fwiw: TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.6W 1007 25 1200UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.8N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 24 22.2N 92.9W 1003 29 1200UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.2N 91.1W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 48 22.5N 89.1W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 60 23.7N 86.7W 994 33 0000UTC 09.10.2024 72 24.7N 84.8W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 84 25.7N 82.3W 996 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 96 28.8N 78.5W 994 48 1200UTC 10.10.2024 108 31.1N 73.9W 997 54 0000UTC 11.10.2024 120 33.5N 65.4W 996 48 1200UTC 11.10.2024 132 39.5N 54.4W 987 45 0000UTC 12.10.2024 144 47.6N 45.6W 972 46 1200UTC 12.10.2024 156 POST-TROPICAL