GaWx

Indeed, it is easily the coldest overall yet! Jan 6-12 is a whopping 5-7 F colder in the N Rockies to N Plains to Chicago vs yesterday as the strongest cold now aims to come into the US further west with the H5 ridge now a bit further offshore the W coast (stronger -EPO/weaker +PNA) and a further S piece of the TPV into N Hudson Bay. Temps in the NE are slightly colder and the SE is ~same as yesterday. Jan 13-19 is also significantly colder vs yesterday/easily coldest overall yet especially NE US to Midwest with the H5 ridge also a bit further offshore.

Wow, a rise of 0.4 more the last 2 days! NOAA equivalent daily is likely up to ~-1.64 vs a low of ~~-4 Oct 10!

The MJO forecasts toward weak left side are what make me think the recent GFS suite trend is mainly a head fake or temporary at worst and that the E US will likely be dominated by cold in much of Jan 1-20+. Also, a (near) record +PNA in Dec for cold ENSO is encouraging for Jan +PNA prospects as has been posted about. Fingers crossed I found 8 cases of weak left side MJO (similar to the images below) in cold ENSO in Jan with 7 of the 8 cases being concurrently cold dominated (posted in detail over the weekend): In addition, the early Jan progged -AO is on the side that supports E US cold.

The MJO forecasts are what make me think the recent GFS suite trend is mainly a head fake or temporary at worst and that the E US will likely be dominated by cold in much of Jan 1-20+. Fingers crossed. *Edit: Also the (near) record Dec +PNA for cold ENSO is encouraging for Jan +PNA prospects per analogs.

All commodity markets inherently have high levels of gambling. Not for the faint of heart! I’d say that market typically reacts to already existing model trends more than it predicts model trends. That’s why I like to mention its trends. This morning it reacted to what the last few models have shown. Even the latest EPS lost some HDDs.

The last few GFS suites especially have trended toward the initial cold in January coming down further west vs what was showing late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary or better yet a head-fake. Interesting times in the forecasting discussion world!

I’m seeing what appears to be a trend toward the early Jan cold dumping more into the W US vs E US vs what was showing on runs late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary and/or the trend is a head-fake. *Edit: This is especially the case on recent GFS/GEFS more than the others. Natural gas, which hit new highs on Fri, has been dropping back some the last few hours and most noticeably since 8AM EST. That market could be considering this recent trend, which would be bearish for NG demand if reflecting reality.

Today’s forecasted GEFS AO is getting quite low, sub -2 mean and still falling at the end. It averages ~-2 for Jan 1-5: Here are the 13 1950+ cold ENSO Jans with Jan 1-5 averaging sub -1.5 AO together with the full Jan avg temps anomaly (based on each respective 30 year climo period) at Baltimore (proxy for E US): 2021 -2.9 +2 2014 -1.5 -7 2011 -2.9 -4 2009 -1.7 -5 2008 -1.6 +1 2001 -2.6 -1 1997 -1.8 -1 1996 -2.0 -2 1985 -2.3 -4 1965 -2.4 -2 1963 -3.6 -4 1955 -2.6 -2 1951 -2.4 +3 AVG -2; 1 MBN (2014); 7 BN; 3 NN; 2 AN (2021, 1951) So, this fwiw implies a notably better chance for BN than AN for Jan 2025 at Baltimore (as a proxy for the E US) assuming todays GEFS AO forecast for Jan 1-5 will verify pretty well.

I don’t include Mar as part of winter. I’m talking met winter (DJF) since Mar normal temps are significantly higher (early met spring). I agree that many (though not me) just focus on snowfall and thus I agree with what you’re saying that many would think fail if cold but not snowy. But again not all think this way.

If the cold domination hangs on through Jan 15 and possibly as late as Jan 20, we’d be looking at the high likelihood that both Dec and Jan would end up averaging NN to BN in much of the E US, something you didn’t expect in advance per your posts. I certainly didn’t expect this then. So, even if Feb is mild (still quite possible as often is the case in La Niña…I favor it as of now), this winter is likely going to end up significantly colder than we had expected.

The bc MJO forecasts for early Jan from GEFS/EPS continue to be in the general vicinity of what has often during cold ENSO coincided with cold in much of the E US in Jan, that being just outside, near, or within the left half of the circle (7 out of the 8 cases that I found: 2022 2nd half, 2000 late, 1999 early, 1996 and 1994 (1st halves), 1982 late, and 1976 early). The only failure was the mild middle of Jan of 2023.

The last 6 days of Euro Weeklies runs have had measurable snow into far N FL on the mean!

Today was a near perfect day for a late afternoon walk with low 50s, sunshine, and a light breeze. Todays KSAV high of 56 is 7 BN. The low of 37 is 5 BN. Loving it!

Oct-Dec PDO rises of 1.25+ during cold ENSO since 1854: 1878, 1882, 1892, 1894, 1910, 1921, 1924, 1943, 1949, 1962, 2000, 2005, 2007 2024 will likely join these

That’s the highest daily WCS since Apr per the chart. Equivalent NOAA likely now down to only -2 from ~~-4 ~Oct 10! MTD ~~-2.5 to -2.8 but rising and could mean full Dec will be ~-2.2 to -2.6 (or ~~-2.4) vs Nov’s -3.24 and Oct’s -3.78. That could mean a top 11-15 Oct-Dec rise (back 170 years).

We’re still on pace for a shot at a new record high Dec PNA for non-Nino. Current projections are close to the +1.58 of 2020. Keep in mind that the tabular monthlies tend to be ~1.8 times the mean of the dailies. Current highest tabular Dec +PNA for non-Nino: 2020: +1.58 1960: +1.46 1985: +1.39 2005: +1.38 2000: +1.23 Where were the subsequent Jan tabular PNAs for these non-Nino high +PNA Dec? 2021 +0.19 1961 +1.41 (4th highest on record for non-Nino) 1986 +0.97 (tied for 7th highest on record for non-Nino) 2006 +0.43 2001: +1.51 (3rd highest on record for non-Nino) Avg Jan for these 5: +0.90 So, as @Stormchaserchuck1 was suggesting (actually he was suggesting for all ENSO), +PNA in Dec tends to carryover into Jan for non-Nino. Three of the 5 did strongly and one weakly. The other (2020-1) went to neutral. So, none even went to a weak -PNA. But caution is advised due to the sample size being small.

Spot on, Chuck! Last evening I discovered there’s a really good 3-4 week outlook archives section (issued once/wk since 2015-6). For the SE quadrant of the US, yesterday’s is THE most impressive for Jan (I mean based on % chance for BN) on record! It beat out the prior most impressive for Jan, that for 1/16-29/2016, a period that verified well in the SE quadrant with 4-6 BN. It had a major winter storm and flurries as far south as Gainesville, FL!

The week 3/4 outlook website has a great archive section. I just took a look at all winter week 3/4 outlooks since they started 2015-6. I can confirm that today’s, with all but the S 1/2 of FL in 60-70% BN chances, is easily THE coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE as a whole for Jan on record! The 2nd coldest for Jan was issued for Jan 16-29, 2016: 1/16-29/2016 verified very well with the solid cold of 4-6 BN. Also, there was a major winter storm N GA/Carolinas. In addition, flurries fell as far S as Gainesville, FL. (I was there) @pcbjr Could the SE, including Deep South, have a similarly cold and wintry two week period to 1/16-29/2016? Based on today’s coldest week 3/4 forecast on record for Jan, the extended models, Dec cold/strong +PNA analogs, and a decent chance to have an MJO largely near or inside the circle starting on left side, I wouldn’t at all discount this possibility. Could this finally be when the widespread SE major winter storm drought ends?? Was this the coldest week 3/4 outlook on record for the SE for ALL met winter from an absolutes standpoint? There’s only one other that can compare, the one for 2/9-22/2019 (see below). But that one was for a period with avg normals ~3F warmer than those pertaining to today’s week 3/4 outlook. Thus, I’d say today’s is the coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE on record in terms of implied absolutes being forecasted for all met. winter!

For 3-4 weeks out this is quite impressive, especially as regards the 3rd shade of blue, which means 60-70% chance to average BN for a 2 week long period in ~30% of the lower 48. It also has ~2/3 of the lower 48 with a 50%+ chance for BN. You don’t see all of this too often these days to say the least, especially from the fairly conservative NOAA:

The Euro Weeklies once again have a strong signal for cold 1/6-12, similar to yesterday. For the 1st time, there’s a tiny bit of the 3rd shade of cold near the OB of NC. If the strong signal persists, future runs should start showing more of this 3rd shade and possibly some of the 4th shade later on. This is getting pretty close to about as strong a signal in this warmer age one will see for a full week of cold 2.5 weeks out on a 100 member ensemble: H5 has an even slightly stronger BN signal with NYC now down even further to a very low 538 dm, which is a whopping 12 dm below the normal of 550! This 538 compares to these the last 8 days starting with yesterday: 539, 541, 543, 543, 545, 547, 547, and 548. So, as we’re getting closer, the signal is getting clearer/intensifying. This is an extremely strong signal for 2.5 weeks out keeping in mind it is the mean of a 100 member ensemble in a warming world:

Thanks. I was basing that post on these 3 end of run 2m temp anomalies, which are all significantly colder than prior runs. NG is paying attention and is up another 4% today.

12Z model consensus is overall colder late in the runs and is just plain cold! Folks reading many posts in this thread might not realize this.

Latest bc MJO of two least inaccurate models are now very close with both into left side of circle early Jan. A good number of past instances of this sort of MJO during non-El Nino have been during cold in E US in Jan (see 7 cases below) GEFS: EPS: Past instances of left inside circle with cold E US in Jan non-El Nino: 2022 2nd half Jan: 2000 late Jan: 1999 early Jan: 1996 1st half Jan: 1994 1st half Jan: 1982 late Jan: 1976 early Jan: But this one failed to be cold: 2023 mid Jan was mild So, 7 were cold and only one wasn’t. But we may have the warm MC to contend with like for the 2023 case although the 2022 case was still cold. And we’ll have to see if the MJO really is going to verify left side inside circle/are these model progs accurate?

The multiday averaged CFS ensemble runs have been getting colder in the E US for much of early to mid Jan with a stronger +PNA/-EPO. Most recent individual CFS ensemble runs have had 2-3 weeks straight of BN temp domination in the E US. Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS from yesterday at 0Z agree. Let’s see how this evolves. Will be interesting. NG prices are at new 2024 highs. Newest run for Jan 3-9 (last 3 days of ens runs averaged): Run from one week ago for same period:

Strongest cold signal yet with NYC H5 for 1/6-12 down from 541 dm to 539 dm, which is 11 dm BN! That’s now within the 5th shade of blue vs 4th yest and 3rd on prior days. I don’t know if you folks realize how hard that is to do 2.5 weeks out for a full 7 day period on a 100 member ensemble in a warming world! The 2m temps are now the coldest in terms of how widespread they are. They’re still at the 2nd level of BN but I fully expect to start seeing the 3rd level soon assuming the strong signal continues undiminished.