GaWx

For W Caribbean cherry, 12Z UKMET is even further N as it doesn’t even cross the Yucatan on NW trek into middle of the Gulf: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.5N 80.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.11.2024 96 17.5N 80.9W 1004 31 0000UTC 06.11.2024 108 18.5N 82.8W 1004 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 120 20.8N 84.7W 1004 31 0000UTC 07.11.2024 132 21.9N 87.2W 1003 33 1200UTC 07.11.2024 144 23.8N 88.5W 1002 37 0000UTC 08.11.2024 156 24.7N 89.7W 1002 35 1200UTC 08.11.2024 168 25.4N 91.4W 1004 37

The Oct 31st CANSIPS is the 3rd run in a row with a Modoki El Niño getting established in the summer of 2025. Now if only the W Pac marine heatwave/extreme -PDO would subside.

8PM TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. 3. North Atlantic: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity. Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Euro Weeklies through mid Dec no change: very strong SPV, solidly AN temps E 2/3 of US.

Mild has been fully expected by me for Nov and at least Dec. This map is actually not that dry.

1. 12Z Ensembles regarding Conus: active with highest % hitting as a TC on CDN (most members), GEFS at 50%, and lowest on Euro (~30%). These are mainly, though not entirely, coming from the W Caribbean. There are also members with hits on the US from TCs that lose TC status before hitting. 2. 12Z UKMET: TCG at hour 96 in W Car that moves WNW into Yucatan: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 78.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.11.2024 96 13.9N 78.4W 1004 38 0000UTC 05.11.2024 108 14.5N 79.0W 1002 38 1200UTC 05.11.2024 120 15.3N 79.7W 1001 37 0000UTC 06.11.2024 132 15.9N 81.8W 999 34 1200UTC 06.11.2024 144 17.0N 83.9W 998 40 0000UTC 07.11.2024 156 17.8N 86.7W 996 41 1200UTC 07.11.2024 168 18.3N 89.1W 997 36 ———————— Edit: 0Z UKMET: further N with a WNW crossing of the N Yucatan followed by NW turn into Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N 78.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 05.11.2024 96 15.2N 78.7W 1003 31 1200UTC 05.11.2024 108 16.3N 80.3W 1002 30 0000UTC 06.11.2024 120 17.2N 81.8W 1001 31 1200UTC 06.11.2024 132 18.6N 83.9W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2024 144 19.5N 86.3W 999 34 1200UTC 07.11.2024 156 21.4N 88.9W 999 34 0000UTC 08.11.2024 168 22.4N 90.9W 997 36

0Z Euro ensemble mean next 2 wks: still well below normal US pop weighted HDDs (~2/3 of the normal) and well above normal CDDs (~4 times the norm): normally US HDDs are ~23 times CDDs during this period but this fcast has HDDs only ~3.5 times CDDs. HDDs are rising and are forecasted to get to almost normal on 11/2 and 11/9, but then they fall back and still are not averaging anywhere near normal overall. Instead, the fcast has HDDs averaging a whopping nearly ~3.5 BN/day. In other words, the pop weighted US is forecasted to average a whopping ~3.5F/day AN for the period 10/31 through 11/13! The fcast averages 7.4 HDD/day, which is the normal US pop wted HDDs for Oct 24th. That means that this period overall is forecasted to be at US HDD levels from ~2 weeks earlier.

CANSIPS (Sep 30th run): Modoki El Niño starting next summer? New run will be out soon.

12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 17.4N 83.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.11.2024 156 17.4N 83.6W 1005 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 168 18.3N 85.5W 1004 32

It has no TC.

12Z GEFS: about as active as any run yet regarding CoNUS landfalls with 12 of 30 (40%).

This verifying in the near term as well as in the means through the winter would not be the least bit surprising in the SE. There are always occasional BN periods (like the period we had earlier this month) and thus there will be some this winter (cold periods will keep stepping down over the next couple of months), but I’m expecting AN to dominate over BN in the SE until further notice thanks to La Niña and the very strong -PDO/WPacific marine heatwave. In addition the solar peak, if anything, may tend to limit high latitude blocking in the means. There have been only 6 -NAO winters over the last 35 and all were during low mean sunspots (<35). Currently they are in the high 100s. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is easily the coldest along with the lowest dewpoints in the means and is the most interesting due to major swings at times. The warmest winter on record is so much better to me than the coolest summer. I have much more hope for a change during 2025-6, when the CANSIPS has recently been suggesting a Modoki El Nino to get established next summer fwiw.

1. It’s a small world. Were you a regular poster at WWBB or EasternUSWx? 2. Do you or does anyone else remember a frequent poster with last name MacDonald posting at ne.weather? 3. In the early 2000s and beyond I regularly watched JB’s Accuweather daily videos, which included his own (which sometimes included either of his very young children Garrett or Jessie) or Point Counter Point (which were often along with Ken Reeves, Bernie Rayno, Dr. Joe, or Elliot Abrams): https://www.accuweather.com/premium-pcp.asp And yes, I’m always thankful for the good memory(s) as was the case with this great entertainer:

Joe Bartlo: holy cow! I remember that name from ne.weather very well! I don’t recall details but do remember he was often involved in intense discussions/debates. I didn’t think he was a pro-met. Is that correct? I don’t recall him going to WWBB. May Joe RIP. I don’t remember Jack at ne.weather. Did Jack later go to WWBB and Eastern? I feel like I remember a Jack at Eastern, but don’t know it was the same guy. If it is, I think he also may have sadly passed. Also, I remember a “Jerry” being a frequent New England poster. Was that Weathafella?

1. Click upper right. 2. Click “account”. 3. Click “my attachments”. 4. Delete some of them, especially large ones.

Yeah, you being where you are could help at times more than those to your SE (assuming these are accurate of course). During weeks 3-6 the mean shows AN H5 hts dominating in/near the Aleutians, which typically teleconnects to AN H5 dominating in much of the E US (-PNA), especially Mid-Atlantic S. I like to see the opposite, BN/troughing dominating in the Aleutians, which is common during El Niño, since it typically teleconnects to BN hts dominating as +PNA is favored. Week 3 is below:

I agree there are some individuals who say that every year, but I’m talking about the general tone amongst the active posters during October. There are certain posters who are pessimistic on a semi-regular to regular basis. They are often doing that for trolling purposes though not all. I’ve found the general tone to be more optimistic than the models would suggest quite often. But that makes sense because in advance of winter many wx enthusiasts have had tendencies to be optimistic/hopeful. It is natural. I’m still not recalling a single autumn with a dominant pessimistic tone for winter. But if anyone can point to one, I’d like to know about it. It wasn’t 2001-2 for the reasons I stated. I’d say this autumn is the closest but even it has had some level of hope/optimism just like I’m claiming is the case every October, which is what got me talking about this. You said: “Is it ever a lost cause in October? No.” That is my main point. So I think we actually agree.

Euro Weeklies means are mainly mild in the E US through the entire run (goes through Dec 9th) fwiw. Consistent with that, the mean SPV (thick blue line) (climo is thick red line) is very strong through Dec 12th. If this verifies, JB is going to have a very hard time getting the cold Dec he keeps mentioning.

Whereas the 12Z Euro didn’t have a TC, the 12Z Euro ensemble is the most active yet by a good margin as regards landfalling member % on the CONUS. Out of 50 members, 9 (18%) hit FL within Nov 7-12 with even a 10th still in the GOM at 360 (a MH) aiming to hit FL ~Nov 13th. Out of these 9 that hit, 7 appear to be H strength with one a MH. Of the 9 that hit, 2 hit the Panhandle, 4 hit the Big Bend, and 3 hit SW FL (S of Tampa). There are also 2 that miss to the E but hit parts of the W Bahamas. In summary, this run is a bit ominous for W FL. By the way, I count a total of ~18 members (36%) with a TC on the run from whatever source.

The Euro (12Z) still has no TC. However, the CMC ens is about as active as any prior run and the GEFS is still pretty active though not as active as some earlier runs.

Does anyone here remember the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup (was like a no-frills BB) from the late 90s through early 2000s? Did any of you post there? I did because this was just before Wright Wx BB and ne.weather was the only BB I was aware of at the time. @bluewave @donsutherland1

Thank you. But I don’t recall folks thinking that winter was cooked BEFORE it started. To the contrary there was plenty of optimism, partially fueled by the then very popular and well followed JB as mentioned by Ray and snowman. This was before he had had a chance to establish a long time reputation of a cold bias in winter in the E US. In addition, throughout that winter the GFS was repeatedly forecasting extreme cold, which fueled optimism into the winter. It had a severe cold bias then. I posted a lot about this bias on ne.weather (A Usenet newsgroup…anyone remember those BBs? Among others, Jerry (who later became “weathafella” on Wright Wx BB) was a regular poster there) and subsequently at the newly discovered aforementioned Wright Wx BB because many didn’t realize that reality. This very strong cold biased GFS was repeatedly shown by JB, which was a major reason he kept talking about “vodka” cold. All of that kept those two boards very hyped up into Jan. It wasn’t until at least late Jan and especially Feb that many were finally giving up. By the way, KATL had the most snow that winter since 1991-2 despite being AN by 2.5F. Their 4.6” was over twice the 2” normal. Edit: @weathafellaplease correct me if I’m getting you and another Jerry mixed up as being a regular poster on the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup BB in the late 90s to early 2000s. Wasn’t that you?

With all due respect, I don’t believe because: 1) This is just a control run of the extremely unreliable CFS looking out 1-3 months, which is of virtually no value. 2) Worse yet is that WeatherBell versions of the CFS have been found to be substantially too cold in the E US vs other versions of the CFS including the NWS’ version, itself, and those from Tropical Tidbits. This has to be due to flawed Weather Bell algorithms and is nothing new. There have been numerous posts about this at AmericanWx though maybe not ITT. 3) Not only are these maps much colder than what the model really shows. But they’re also flawed in that they always have a cold spot in southern Lake Michigan and a warm spot over N Lake Michigan/Michigan.

Early look at 12Z GEFS suggests it will have about as many landfalling members on the Conus as recent runs. Update of 12Z GEFS Conus landfalls: 5 of 30 (17%)

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi