GaWx

In 2020 Eta and Iota lead to horrific river based flooding in especially Honduras and Guatemala even though those storms were moving at a halfway decent pace. The damage included very heavy ag losses like coffee. The coffee crop in that area of Central America (especially in W Honduras, Guatemala and N Nicaragua) is one of the most concentrated in the world outside of Minas Gerais (in Brazil). Even though they were major hurricanes, the damage/casualties from wind and surge were nothing like that from the flooding. More flooding would be awful. Things like this only cause increases in folks trying to migrate to the US and other better locations.

Indeed, that’s a rise of ~1.3 from Oct 10th’s ~~-4 to -4.1 on a NOAA basis. So, now it is likely ~~-2.7 to -2.8 on a NOAA basis.

That’s why I’m implying more than the normal amount of caution is recommended to any folks who might be tempted to put large weight on the MJO phases while the W Pacific marine heatwave persists. All things being equal, I’d think that a colder phase would still be preferred, however.

Even when the MJO isn’t technically in the warmer phases, doesn’t the W Pacific marine heatwave support the tendency toward E US warmth/stronger SE ridge often negating the cold tendencies of the colder MJO phases to an extent? Also, I’ll point out my detailed studies of large samples which have shown that lower amplitude MJO phases have tended to be colder than high amp. (not nearly always obviously but rather in the means). I’m talking with no lag. Perhaps it has something to do with less tropical forcing when the MJO phase is weaker. Then again though, the W Pac marine heatwave may tend to negate some of the cold tendencies of weak MJO, too, as these studies were based on data back to the mid 1970s.

GEFS through 0Z run continue to look scarey for W FL, especially Tampa south and centered on Ft. Myers. If this hits the Conus as a H, it would tie 1886, 1985, and 2020 for the alltime record of 6 H hits! What an awful season for the US. The weak La Niña on a RONI basis showed once again why weak Niña has averaged the most dangerous for the US. Hoping for El Niño next year.

Euro ens mean through day 14 with pop. wted US HDDs on left (0Z yellow, 12Z purple): BN HDDs 11/16-20, NN 11/21-26; compare this to the last time I posted this, when the highest any day’s HDD got was slightly BN and with most days with solidly BN HDDs.

In terms of RONI, 1978 ASO was at -0.19 compared to 2024’s -0.76. So RONI is much lower in 2024. Also, 2024’s MEI, which was already down to -0.7 in JA, is much lower than 1978, which was still up at +.0.5 in JA and never got lower than +0.2. So, in terms of RONI and MEI, 2024 and 1978 aren’t close.

The latest Euro Weeklies for 11/18-24 show this well: 4 x climo (~4-5) closer to normal ACE of a month to 1.5 months earlier:

Has 3.4 already hit its low? The following 4 show that we’re now a good bit warmer than the ~Sep 20th low: OISST: CRW: CDAS: Buoys: significantly warmer than coolest, especially 130-165W: Supporting this idea that the coldest may be done is the OHC:

The image below is the Nov 10th, 2023, Euro Weeklies SPV prog through Dec 25th, whose mean had a strong SPV and didn’t have it going weaker than normal til mid Dec. Looking back at the many I saved, they all had a strong SPV for Nov. Then look what happened with the 11/22/23 run’s mean, which while still having a strong SPV in Nov suddenly had a weak SPV for 12/6/23 through 1/6/24. The strong Nov SPV verified quite well. Dec actually ended up with a fairly weak SPV much of the month (so not too far off) but with no major SSW: Here’s actual for Nov-Dec 2023: Strong Nov SPV (well predicted) and a bit weaker than the ~32 climo wind in Dec with no SSW (verified pretty well with actual avg wind speed of ~27 vs many EW runs, including the one above, at ~25): Yesterday’s EW mean has a near normal rest of Nov SPV averaging ~31, which is much weaker than Nov 11-30, 2023’s ~38. Then it has a very slightly BN Dec of ~30 (vs climo of ~32). If this EW were to verify well, we’d end up with a significantly weaker SPV in Nov and somewhat stronger in Dec in 2024 vs 2023:

-0Z ICON and CMC are threats to FL 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.7N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.11.2024 84 16.6N 83.9W 1003 25 0000UTC 16.11.2024 96 16.4N 84.0W 1001 26 1200UTC 16.11.2024 108 15.7N 83.4W 1001 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 120 15.3N 82.9W 1001 29 1200UTC 17.11.2024 132 15.4N 83.4W 1002 29 0000UTC 18.11.2024 144 16.3N 84.6W 1002 31 1200UTC 18.11.2024 156 17.8N 86.1W 1001 34 0000UTC 19.11.2024 168 20.7N 86.8W 999 38

We’ll probably get a RONI 3 month low point of sub -0.8.

12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N 81.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 16.11.2024 120 14.4N 81.1W 1002 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 132 14.3N 80.6W 1001 31 1200UTC 17.11.2024 144 13.9N 80.2W 1001 32 0000UTC 18.11.2024 156 14.3N 80.4W 1000 33 1200UTC 18.11.2024 168 14.8N 80.9W 999 33

Possibly headed well into the 160s due to next potential W Car TC.

159.8

Indeed the WCS daily is the highest in 2.5 months. But just for those who aren’t aware, NOAA has been running ~1 lower than WCS for a long time. So, the equivalent NOAA daily is ~~-2.89.

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

In some locations for certain things I think there are 24 hour records also kept. But the gold standard is by calendar dates.

It is a solid W at 30 mb. Maybe that’s for a different altitude? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Check this out on today’s Euro Weeklies (similar to yesterday’s): the SPV stays near climo avg throughout

1. Today’s KSAV (well inland airport) rainfall of 4.35” set a new record high rainfall not just for today but for the entire month! The old Nov daily record was 4.13”, which was set Nov 18th, 1898. 2. Hunter (KSVN), which is much closer to me and to my amount, had even more, 5.67”! I don’t have daily records for Hunter. 3. These very high amounts for the date were helped by the heavy rain starting near midnight as opposed to being split by two days.

It finally lightened up but not after getting ~4+ of rain within a couple of hours and ~6” since midnight! But the damage is done. Lots of water is again in my garage. Came in from right garage door jamb (as I see it from inside) and then spread to portions of the left side. I looked outside and it appears the source is water coming up through a crack in the concrete right outside the door. Water appears to be coming through that crack from underneath the concrete!! This is crazy. NWS was slow but finally issued a FFW at 12:39PM, which was 1:40 after the heavy started and an hour after 3”+ had already fallen! BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1239 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 645 PM EST THURSDAY. * AT 1239 PM EST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE NOW FLOODED AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SOME STRUCTURES MAY ALSO FLOOD OR BECOME ISOLATED. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, AND TYBEE ISLAND.

After off and on light rain since 2AM, I’m getting heavy rain again just before 11AM. At 11:20AM, very heavy rain continues. I’ve received 1”+ during just the last ~25 minutes! 3”+ since midnight, a full Nov climo rain in just 12 hours! Streets are flooding. A little water now sneaking around one side of my garage door. This is what 70 F dewpoints can cause in Nov! Edit 11:35AM: still very heavy! ~2” last 40 minutes and ~4” since midnight! Current level of street:yard flooding is as bad as the worst of the summer. This includes Debbie, which while also bad and which gave me 11”, was over 3 days (a bit more spread out).

Over the last 1/2 hour (since midnight), I’ve had by far the heaviest rain since 9/25-7 (Helene related). It looks to continue for awhile per radar as it moves N from just offshore. Much further inland (Statesboro, Sylvania and other locations) there is ongoing flooding from another area of moderate to heavy rain that has been falling since late afternoon! Update at 1:20AM: It hasn’t stopped here and is now coming down the heaviest yet. Over the last 80 minutes, I’ve had >1”. That’s very heavy for early Nov. Update 1:47AM: Close to 2” has fallen over the last hour and 45 minutes.

Ida of 2009 may qualify.