GaWx

1/21-22 seems to have the strongest potential, similar to 1/10-11 for last week’s storm.

The 18Z GFS tells us that this remains at least a potential close call for ~1/21!

It is far from certain whether or not there actually will be super cold in the SE. Just go back to last week, when super cold was showing on a number of runs at about this point in advance, especially the Euro. The SE ended up with much below normal cold along with a widespread winter storm but no super cold.

This is pretty consistent with prior expectations. Regardless, a BN temp winter is almost assured now.

Another cold week coming next week (1/20-6) per the last two Euro Weeklies runs. Then the cold is done per many runs in a row. Will it be drier than normal for most? Latest ensemble means have gotten drier. Current 2m: H5:

I assume you mean Jan of 2014, which I acknowledged would still be colder. I didn’t consider Feb 2015 because I was looking only at Jans.

The EPS mean precip during 1/21-3 has dropped a lot since 24 hours ago:

12Z EPS snow mean:

12Z Euro very cold and dry 1/20-22. Cold likely overdone of course, which in this case would be a good thing.

This GEFS run’s mean was colder than most of the recent ones for 1/20-22 at H5 and 2m.

More plausible than that insane run but still highly improbable of course with it being 9 days out and showing an extremely rare solution per long historical records. If this were say only 5 days out and runs were pretty consistent, it would be a much different story though even then still far from being set in stone, of course. Keep in mind that there are only 3 pretty similar analogs with this degree of snowfall deep to the SE coast to the 12Z GFS over the last 50+ years: 2/1973 12/1989 1/2018 So, only about once every 20 years or so.

Just remember that the 12Z GFS solution showing major wintry precip in the SE is merely an improbable option because it is but one of many possibilities still 9 days out. Just think of it as an active ensemble member. And don’t forget about a handicap when you realize there’s a cold bias.

In contrast to that clownish video circulating on Facebook yesterday that sounded like “The Day After Tomorrow”, this one done yesterday by pro met. Jason Simpson in Birmingham is excellent. He shows yesterday’s 12Z Euro snow, but puts it into proper perspective: https://m.facebook.com/reel/633732655893596/?referral_source=external_deeplink

A general model cold bias that includes the SE US is always a factor that should be considered because it often (though not always) leads to less cold air verifying vs what is shown, say, 8-10 days out (like what happened last week…keep in mind those extreme runs with widespread single digits to middle teens) and consistent with that storm tracks correcting to reality further NW (like also just happened as instead of offshore the SE coast it was mainly well inland). But every case is different. So, we’ll see. For one important thing, how strong will the strongest 1/19-23 Arctic high actually be? If it ends up there’s a 1050ish coming down that maintains itself well into the 1040s for quite awhile and keeping in mind Siberian cold would be involved, that would favor deeper into the SE wintry precip possibilities and thus affect more people though it could also end up dry. I’d rather have the big high and see how it plays out.

0Z EPS: has some big ones

I’ve got someone still texting me at 1AM because of yesterday’s ridiculous 12Z Euro! What will the next 12Z show? Stay tuned!

0Z Euro: Brick for your sanity don’t look at either the run or the rest of this post. Please! The extreme of extreme SE winter storms is completely gone. Wow, what a shocker! Thank goodness, he seems to have gone to bed.

Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him: “To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US” I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

I heard from a friend that this is circulating on FB. Has anyone seen this clown? https://m.facebook.com/reel/1624958838114564/?referral_source=external_deeplink

Today’s Euro weekly for 1/20-26 is easily the coldest for that week in the E US as for the first time the cold is actually centered there: It’s because H5 is significantly different from prior runs with the SE ridge now centered further offshore and the W ridge much closer to the W coast instead of offshore. Thus the PNA is higher: As a result, the precip map’s strongest wet signal in the E US has shifted SE suggesting any Gulf lows might move further south over FL and then further offshore the SE US than earlier runs suggested:

Brick, there hasn’t been a SE storm of this magnitude AND breadth on record going back 150 years! This is like 2/1973 on steroids and 2/1973 without steroids was incredible. So, odds of this combined with the massive N FL Pan/deep SE/coast icestorm verifying closely are infinitesimally tiny. There’s a better chance for me to decide to run for Pres of the US and that’s something I have less than zero interest in ever doing. We all should keep in mind that a NW trend though not a lock is always likely if there is a storm around then due to cold model biases. It isn’t really a NW trend but rather the models typically being too far SE in the first place because the atmosphere is modeled colder than reality.

No now it won’t stop.

Bump for insane and highly improbable 12Z Euro. These types of runs lead to ignorant social media posts.

I try not to look at operational solutions, especially with one extreme or the other, as being significant over a week out. They change so much from run to run and thus have little credibility.

I agree. But Siberian air doesn’t at all have to be BN there to make it very cold in the US if we have the Siberian Express pattern. Often it is just normal Siberian air that leads to extreme cold in our country. Just like near normal Canadian air plunging down can make it very cold down here.