GaWx

Looking at current SSTs and the NHC path, SSTs don't fall below 29C until after 120 hours. That's when the cooler Franklin wake would have a significant impact. So, until then, they're mainly 29-30C, plenty warm.

You and I know that nothing has changed due to one operational Euro run. Ensembles are the way to go and they've continued to suggest a low chance. They keep showing outliers run after run. Chance still remains low but nowhere near zero. I'm still near 10%.

12Z EPS has ~6 (12%) (9/17-19) US hits excluding operational with 3 ME and 3 MA. So, it has increased again though nowhere near as high as the 9/7 runs and hits are later on average. 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

I counted 5 (16%) US landfalls (9/15-17) on the 12Z GEFS with 3 ME, 1 MA, and 1 NY/RI. Last 5 GEFS: 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

GEFS has been showing 10-16% US hits for the last 5+ runs. EPS has shown 6-24% the last 7 runs. So, it hasn't been anywhere near totally dismissed by these ensembles.

It was 963 mb as of last evening but then the recon from 2 hrs ago showed 956 mb. And then this showed 100 knts/still major 954 mb as of 12Z: AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU

6Z GEFS: 5 (16%) US hits (3 ME, 1 NY, 1 NJ) (9/16-7) vs 3 on prior 3 runs. Just passing along facts. Use the info however one wishes. I still think the chance is low (~10%) but still not yet near zero. Still too far out with runs like this.

The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs: 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

Indeed, the Euro is jumping around so much run to run. It hit NS on the prior run. This run, like the one from 24 hours earlier misses all land through 240 but is more than 24 hours slower.

0Z Euro 192 300+ miles SSW of 12Z

Just like the prior two GEFS runs and the 12Z EPS, the 0Z GEFS has 10% of its members with US landfalls. The three occur 9/15-17 (1 ME, 1 MA, 1 NY). They're all big hits with them at 951, 952, and 964 mb. So, the NE US is still nowhere near in the clear, especially with a potential hit being as much as 9-10 days out, despite the chance of a hit being low. These similar outliers keep showing up.

0Z UK never gets W of 67.7W vs prior run's 70.1W. As a result this passes much closer to Bermuda vs where recent runs were aiming: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 55.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.1N 55.8W 958 83 1200UTC 09.09.2023 12 20.3N 57.4W 966 77 0000UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.2N 58.8W 970 69 1200UTC 10.09.2023 36 21.9N 60.0W 970 62 0000UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.6N 61.1W 970 66 1200UTC 11.09.2023 60 23.2N 62.5W 968 69 0000UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.7N 63.6W 964 72 1200UTC 12.09.2023 84 23.9N 65.0W 957 80 0000UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.2N 65.9W 952 77 1200UTC 13.09.2023 108 24.5N 66.8W 948 81 0000UTC 14.09.2023 120 24.9N 67.2W 950 79 1200UTC 14.09.2023 132 25.9N 67.7W 951 79 0000UTC 15.09.2023 144 27.5N 67.3W 947 80 1200UTC 15.09.2023 156 29.5N 67.7W 946 79 0000UTC 16.09.2023 168 31.4N 67.5W 944 76

Recent SSTs:

10% (3) (ME, RI, NY) of the 18Z GEFS landfall in the US, the same % as the 12Z GEFS and EPS. I wonder whether or not the recent weakening will make much difference on future runs since they typically initialize as much weaker than reality.

Due to very strict building codes as well as the vast majority of Bermuda being elevated well above even major storm surge levels (I've been there and thus have seen it firsthand), I wouldn't even feel all that worried if I were stuck there during a hurricane. I'd actually feel safer there than where I live. Map of Bermuda showing hilly areas dominating: https://www.worldatlas.com/maps/bermuda

You're welcome. Yes, they're anomalies. So, a 15, for example, means +1.5. From the link below, "The SST anomalies are in tenths of a degree (times 10)." and "Thus for the first record: 1949 999 999 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -8 -10 -11 -13 -13 The anomalies for this year are negative, with a value of -13 indicated a cold equatorial Pacific SST anomaly of -1.3 Deg-C." https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/Readme.txt

It looks like ~5 (10%) of the 12Z EPS members through hour 240 have a US landfall with all on ME. If there are no more after 240 (probably the case), that would mean a drop from the 14% US landfalls on the 0Z and the 24% on yesterday's 12Z, which had the most. So, assuming 10% is it for the 12z, here is the running EPS tally of US landfalls: 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%) Based on the trend of the latest two EPS runs as well as overall model consensus trends, I'm dropping the chance for a US landfall from 20% to 10% and with that mostly for ME. I won't go lower because it is still 10% on the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS also has 10% (3 members hit 9/15-18 with one on each of ME, MA, and RI). To go lower than 10% with any potential hit still 7-10 days away along with the 10% of ensemble members having hits would seem premature.

Webb's tables, which sometimes get updated even for years going way back, are the best I've seen regarding 3.4 for pre-1950. Also, I use the JMA (see link below) as a secondary source for pre-1950 even though it uses a variation of Nino 3 instead of 3.4. The JMA similar to Webb has 1925-6 as only lower end strong. Per these two sources, I feel very comfortable calling 1877-8 a super and pretty comfortable calling 1888-9 a super. I see no other definitive super pre-1950 although 1896-7 and 1930-31 are pretty close per both Webb and JMA while 1902-3 is pretty close per Webb. JMA: https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

Where are you seeing that 1925-6 was a super Nino? According to the Eric Webb table at the following link, the ONI maxed at just +1.5 (low end strong): https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I'm still near a 20% chance for a NE US landfall for now.

Look at this Nino 1+2 plunge per OISST! It is pretty safe to say that the top is in (though nothing is certain). The model consensus agrees. Look for a short term correction, however, as usually occurs after a very steep move in whatever direction:

OHC has topped out for at least the time being:

Do you think there will be a DJF averaged -NAO (say -0.25 or lower) this winter? Those have been difficult to attain in recent decades for some reason with only 6 of the last 44 (14%) and only one of the last 12 winters having it. They were much more frequent from the middle 1950s through 1970s. This has been the case while at the same time summer -NAOs have become much more frequent meaning little or no correlation of winter -NAO to summer -NAO.

The 12Z UKMET is similar to recent runs with it moving N near 70W at 168.

The 12Z Euro at 192 is ~100 miles SSW of the 0Z Euro at 204 at the latitude of Cape Hatteras though many hundreds of miles OTS. The 12Z yesterday for the same time (216) was landfalling in E ME! It looks like Nova Scotia is going to be hit on this new run.