GaWx

Two additional 12Z op runs: UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17 Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM

Some additional 12Z op runs: UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17 Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM JMA: Cape Cod 9/16 PM KMA: SW NS 9/16 PM

Do you mean slightly east? It looks like to me that the 12Z Euro at 96 is barely E of the 0Z Euro at 108.

For the second 12Z run in a row, the inferior JMA goes over Cape Cod: Yesterday's 12Z JMA was similar but ~6 hours faster:

As your map shows, the slightly BN SE US DJF is the only BN for any land area in the entire world! That's encouraging but also alarming since it reflects on the warming globe. Do you or does anyone else know what baseline this JMA map uses for normal? Edit: I found it at the JAMSTEC site: 1991-2020.

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

The very active 0Z EPS still had only (4) 8% of members hit the US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had 11 (22%)! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

Yes, thank you. I just corrected it. So, whereas the 0Z EPS had only 8% hit the US outside of ME, the 6Z EPS had 22%! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside ME for any EPS.

1. The 6Z GEFS was pretty similar to the 0Z GEFS except there was actually a slight increase vs 0Z up to 5 US landfalls vs 4 including 2 MA hits vs 0 MA on the 0Z. So, I didn't see the E shift on the 6Z GEFS vs 0Z that you saw although the 6Z GEFS (19% US hits) is still not as active as the EPS (31%+). 2. Whereas the 6Z Euro shifted slightly E of the 0Z Euro, the 6Z EPS actually shifted even further W vs the 0Z EPS. Check out MA, for which the 0Z EPS had 4 landfalls. The 6Z EPS has ~8 MA landfalls in addition to 2 on the RI/MA border and another offshore ready to come in as of the end of the run! So, whereas the 0Z EPS had 4 US landfalls outside of ME, the 6Z EPS has ~11 of those!

1. The 0Z Euro hits the C ME coast ~8AM on 9/17 at 972 mb. 2. The 0Z EPS looks like it has the highest % of members with a US landfall yet. There are so many that it will be very hard to count them. Most by far are in ME. It looks like ~4 in MA. I'm roughly guessing 12-15 in ME, where the rest of them are. 3. The odd thing is that the 0Z GEFS had the smallest # of US hits in quite awhile with only 4 (13%) vs the 0Z EPS' ~31%+! 4. Also odd is that the 0Z GEPS has only one US hit, the smallest # on a GEPS since way back at the 0Z 9/9 run! 5. Also odd is that the 0Z Euro is the only 0Z op model that hit the US. The GFS barely missed and the others were further away.

0Z UKMET: gets down to 937 mb tomorrow evening, lowest yet for the restrengthening peak; a little further E track leading to landfall in W NS vs going into Bay of Fundy before NB landfall on 12Z run: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 64.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 23.9N 64.4W 945 82 1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 24.2N 65.8W 952 84 0000UTC 13.09.2023 24 24.8N 66.6W 937 89 1200UTC 13.09.2023 36 26.0N 67.2W 946 83 0000UTC 14.09.2023 48 27.6N 67.5W 943 83 1200UTC 14.09.2023 60 29.5N 68.0W 945 77 0000UTC 15.09.2023 72 31.7N 67.8W 941 78 1200UTC 15.09.2023 84 34.2N 66.8W 953 66 0000UTC 16.09.2023 96 37.8N 65.9W 958 76 1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 41.4N 65.6W 963 59 0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 44.7N 65.3W 977 45 1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 47.6N 63.5W 989 39 0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 49.8N 60.3W 994 33 1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 51.2N 54.1W 998 38 0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

18Z ICON/GFS a little faster and approach/hit W NS at 120 (Sep 16th afternoon). They're both in mid to high 960s for SLP while just offshore. It appears to be down to a TS then though a very large one with wide reaching effects. So, the exact landfall location would probably not matter as much as it would for a more compact storm. For the probably few who care, the 12Z JMA hits Eastport, ME, at 144 (Sep 17th AM).

For trend following purposes for those who like following these and for the record here are EPS 0Z/12Z run US landfalls, which have resulted in three runs in a row with 20%+. That's a significant %, but OTOH the rising has stopped for now and it is still well under 50%: 9/11 12Z: ~11 (22%): ~9 ME, 2 MA 9/11 0Z: ~12 (24%): ~9 ME, 1 MA, 1 RI, 1 NY 9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI 9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%) Aside: 12Z op hit W NS at 969 mb very early on 9/17

This is very good news from the standpoint of the prospects of reducing the dominance of the SE ridge as well as reducing the frequency and amplitude of the MC MJO phases. Hopefully it lasts! Then again, we have the -PDO and +AMO that aren't usually on the side of those who favor colder winters, especially down here in the SE.

Yeah, thank goodness the high tides won't be as high as those of the full moon and perigee of Sep 2, when they peaked at 21.5 feet at Eastport. However, after relatively low high tides Sep 8-10, the new moon will soon after lead to a secondary peak of 18.8 feet Sep 16-17 meaning a fairly average high tide for there. Hopefully the worst of the surge would be close to low tide: https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/eastport-me/tides/?tide=2023-09#monthly-tide-chart

Thus the timing of any potential landfall vs high/low tide would be extra crucial vs other areas. Related to this, Eastport, ME, has the largest average daily tidal range on the US east coast at ~19 feet.

This new JMA ONI peak is ~+2.05 (for NDJ). That is cooler than the +2.22 NDJ from the August run. That means that the JMA (~0.17), Euro (~0.15), and the (inferior) CFS (~0.35) have all cooled since a month ago. OTOH, the BoM remained the same.

The W Pacific/MC warm pool anomaly, which has been a major factor as regards a warming influence over the last five winters in the E US as exhibited by a frequent strong SE ridge as well as the MJO being on the warmer (right) side of the diagram more often than on the colder (left) side, has cooled significantly vs 12 months ago. I may post more details on this later. What are the implications for the upcoming E US winter? Does this mean a good chance at a colder one to at least close to normal? Of course, we still have the very warm Atlantic (+AMO) though increased tropical activity has helped cool it some.

For record/trend following purposes, GEFS US initial landfalls: 12Z had a drop to 6 (19%) (3 ME, 2 MA, 1 NJ/NYC) with only one strong left hooking member. Almost all of the rest have initial landfall into NS or via the Bay of Fundy into NB. Last 13 GEFS runs: 19%, 32%, 29%, 26%, 42%, 10%, 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

12Z UKMET: -slight left shift (vs 0Z's W NS landfall) with skim of W NS at 975 mb followed by move into Bay of Fundy and early 9/17 NB landfall -slightly stronger peak of 940 mb Tues night HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 63.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.09.2023 0 23.1N 63.2W 944 89 0000UTC 12.09.2023 12 23.7N 64.6W 949 86 1200UTC 12.09.2023 24 24.2N 65.6W 948 83 0000UTC 13.09.2023 36 25.0N 66.5W 940 91 1200UTC 13.09.2023 48 26.1N 67.2W 940 85 0000UTC 14.09.2023 60 27.7N 67.3W 943 81 1200UTC 14.09.2023 72 29.8N 67.8W 946 75 0000UTC 15.09.2023 84 32.0N 67.7W 945 76 1200UTC 15.09.2023 96 34.5N 67.0W 952 66 0000UTC 16.09.2023 108 37.9N 66.1W 955 78 1200UTC 16.09.2023 120 41.4N 66.5W 960 60 0000UTC 17.09.2023 132 44.2N 66.3W 975 42 1200UTC 17.09.2023 144 47.5N 64.8W 991 37 0000UTC 18.09.2023 156 49.7N 62.6W 996 35 1200UTC 18.09.2023 168 50.2N 60.0W 1003 26

For record/trend following purposes, GEFS US landfalls: last 4 runs 26-42% US landfalls 6Z GEFS: ~10 (32%) ~6 ME, 2 MA, 2 RI Last 12 GEFS runs: 32%, 29%, 26%, 42%, 10%, 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

Trying to keep this going as long as countable in order to follow trend and for record: EPS 0Z/12Z US landfalls: two 20%+ in a row 9/11 0Z: ~12 (24%): ~9 ME, 1 MA, 1 RI, 1 NY 9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI 9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

For the record 6Z GFS landfall E ME 9/17

0Z Euro: Very similar to the 0Z GFS, this has a NB landfall 9/17 near 977 mb.