GaWx

If this were for Jan 20-25 instead of 19-25, the %s would be higher in the E 1/4 of the US because Jan 19th is mainly warmer than normal there.

In stark contrast the SPV has actually been near record breaking very strong:

There has been no significant SSW event.

It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st): Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA!

It isn’t often that a GEFS day 8 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1048 mb in the US, but today’s 6Z has that (as of 3Z on Jan 20th): Thanks to a Siberian Express pattern, 11 of the 30 members then have the high 1052+ mb somewhere in the N Rockies or Plains of the US (members 6-8, 14-15, 17-19, 22, 24, 30):

If this model predicted very cold 1/19-25 were to verify, Jan of 2025 would have a good chance to end up the coldest Jan since 2014 (colder than 2018) in the E 1/3 of the US averaged out. Also, going back to 1995, it may be that only 2014 and possibly 2003 would be colder. That would be quite impressive considering global warming!

What do you think about the very strong signal for very cold much of the US 1/19-1/25, which would make Jan of 2025 as quite possibly one of the two coldest Jan’s in the E 1/3 of the US when averaged out since way back in 1994?

Followup: 3-4 days later widespread SE winter storm Jan 10-11/2024 with both heaviest snow to as far back as Jan 9-10 of 2011 and first major winter storm since Feb 12-13 of 2014 some areas

Do you check CoCoRaHS? On that I don’t see anywhere near 5” in that general area for the sum of the two latest 24 hour periods ending ~~7AM. In N Gwinnett 6 miles N of Lawrenceville and 3 miles S of Mall of GA, I measured a solid ~3” based on several measurements in grassy areas (~3.5” for high end). That’s a bit higher than the NWS map implies. The ATL airport measurement of 2.2” is low compared to the city, which probably averaged 3-4”, easily biggest snow since 1/2011. ZR on trees is rather notable but I didn’t actually measure it. My guess: ~0.2-0.25” with pine branches drooping a lot. This probably just missed where widespread outages would have started whew!

There’s been a pretty good amount of ZR here in N Gwinnett that can easily be seen in especially the pines branches, which are leaning noticeably. So far, outages in this area are just a low %. Fortunately, the radar suggests there shouldn’t be too much more rain falling.

Just back from our awesome walk. I love the crunch of the snow! Measured ~3” of wet snow on grass. Lots on trees. Very nice. Saw lots of snowmen. Snow ended couple of hours ago with light mix of IP/ZR since, including during our walk. Lots of slush on roads (due to some traffic) and some on sidewalks. Roads slushy rather than slippery due to temps only barely below 32 (~31-32).

A lot of reports of 3-3.5” in Dekalb county and nearby like on Jimmy Carter in Gwinnett! I’ll check mine here when I actually go outside (Gwinnett). Latest guess 2.5”+. Could be 3”.

It appears the light sleet has changed to freezing rain here in N Gwinnett.

I think it’s lightly sleeting here in N Gwinnett after a beautiful ~2” of snow. No matter what happens from this point, making the trip up here from Savannah is guaranteed to have been the right decision!

I’m thrilled with what we already got here. I estimate 2”! The snow has let up considerably. Can’t tell what may be falling now but it’s light.

Probably near 1” here (N Gwinnett) now already! Loving it!

I’m a proud Georgian who has watched the sleet change to all snow last 30 or so minutes! Beautiful and sticking to everything! Easily over 1/2” already from window estimate!

I’m S of Buford ~3 miles S of Mall of GA.

Thank you! Just woke up and looked out window. Can see a tiny accumulation on roofs, grass, and vehicles of what I assume is sleet here 40 miles NE of Atlanta in N Gwinnett county (2 miles S of I-85 and 6 miles N of Lawrenceville).

Wetbulb temps in N GA are only in the middle 20s. I wonder if models are correctly taking this into account. Many keep temps in low 30s with precip, which seems too high!

Lots of sleet reports coming from far N AL especially during the last hour.

Latest Euro weeklies for 1/20-6 keeping in mind that model consensus brings down Siberian Express high ~1/20: Significant Gulf moisture signal is even stronger than prior run:

Tunica, MS, and Memphis went from light sleet/mix last hour to light snow currently. Skies have become mostly cloudy in last hour here 40 miles NE of ATL. I’m excited about the possibilities! Temps near 32 but dewpoints are well down into the teens.

DFW is now at 33F vs 18Z NAM having them at 35F. So, still too warm (by 2F) fwiw.

After seeing the 12Z NAM verifying 4F too warm at DFW this morning, knowing this would likely be biggest ATL area winter storm since 2014, and knowing I had a place to stay, the weenie in me decided to come to ATL area and take a chance it won’t be mainly a damaging major icestorm where I’ll be. Hoping mainly snow and sleet. I’ll be in a more favorable spot thermalwise than downtown as I’ll be in N Gwinnett County between Mall of GA and Lawrenceville (~40 miles NE of ATL itself). I stopped for a break but wanted to note the many power trucks on I-16 heading W toward the winter storm warned area. Also, I saw numerous trees down on the sides through the 50 miles between Metter and Dublin resulting from Hurricane Helene. Never seen anything like it before!