GaWx

12Z EPS: The 2m temps (along with H5 heights) dropped noticeably vs the 0Z (this as of 1PM Fri):

12Z EPS mean snow: some increase most areas vs 6Z:

12Z Euro: Due to light precip moving quickly into antecedent very low dewpoint air, it has an interesting period early in this storm with mainly ZR along with a little sleet Fri morning within an area of central GA including Columbus, Macon, Sylvania, and Statesboro. @Shack Dewpoints at 12Z Fri: still as low as mid teens as precip moves in qpf 12Z to 18Z Fri coming right into that very dry air Even at 11AM, temps are still down at 32F with the precip falling along with cold mainly NE flow in EC GA (winds not off the much warmer ocean): Result are these precip types with an emphasis on ZR in central GA: This is mainly a curiosity now but does show things could get interesting unusually south if the precip comes in early enough there on Fri morning. The Icon and GFS are similar. Here’s the GFS radar simulation as of 12Z on Fri:

12Z UKMET has the ATL area as the jackpot with 5-5.6”. This is actually a reasonably accurate map when considering their other variables of <0C 850s, temps of 32-33F, and plentiful qpf of 0.6-0.7”. If that were to verify, it would be slightly more than they got in Jans of 2011 and 2002. The last time ATL officially got 5” was in Jan of 1992 though the northside got much more in March of 1993. So, I wouldn’t bet on this much occurring at this point, especially with other models having much less due to warmer upstairs like at 850 mb. It is a high outlier for snowfall in that area compared to other models though it has shown it on the last 3 runs: 4”, 3”, and now 5+”.

It shows ZR/IP. You can see a tiny area of it south of RDU. But UK clown maps are questionable where there’s IP/ZR.

12Z GEFS mean snow (excludes IP/ZR):

The CMC has about the strongest cold bias of the major models at the surface. But the CMC/RGEM often do best in icey/CAD situations.

12Z CMC ZR: major icestorm with 1”+ ZR ATL, Gainesville, Athens, Augusta, Columbia Sleet: @dsaurgets some

12Z GFS ZR: significant in some areas. This would be a major winter storm for NE GA and bordering upstate SC (even Augusta and Columbia would be a close call to a big deal) as depicted with 2-3” of snow, some sleet, and 0.5” of ZR with 0.8-0.9” qpf: 12Z GFS qpf:

12Z GFS 24 hour snow: significant increase over recent runs plus significant IP/ZR some areas

12Z Icon snow:

Regardless, they’ve already received a major snow of ~5-8”. I can’t imagine complaining about that and they seem quite content.

Overall trends not good but fwiw 6Z EPS mean is similar to 0Z and significantly more than Euro op (just like 0Z was):

Not at all surprisingly, only ~20% of the Euro ensemble members are about as limited on snow as the op.

0Z EPS 24 hour snowfall ending 1/11: significantly more than the next to nothing 0Z Euro op but a bit less than recent EPS runs:

0Z Euro has teens for lows some areas of SE like Atlanta on 1/17-18. I’ll believe it when I see it. A couple of old runs had Atlanta down in the single digits for this week.

0Z Euro 24 hour snow:

0Z Euro 72 hour qpf:

0Z GEFS:

The 0Z UK has changed for ATL from all snow (4” on 12Z) to mainly sleet I believe based on 850s mainly +1 to +2. With a qpf of 0.4” and temps near 32, that would mean a little over 1” of sleet.

18Z EPS 144 snow mean: a bit more in NC vs 12Z at 150; ~40% have significant snow in much of NC (pretty strong signal)

This system will almost definitely end up thread-worthy for the SE region regardless of the exact outcome. It would have to be about the worst model failure on record for it not to be.

12Z Euro AI 24 hour qpf for Jan 10-11: ATL: 0.40”, mostly as IP and ZR; Asheville to RDU all snow (850s <0C) ~4-5” (higher ratios Asheville)

12Z JMA has no precip in the SE US Jan 8-11.