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Everything posted by Windspeed
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I'm measuring 5 to 6 inches so far outside. 2 to 3" of that is probably from all the heavy sleet/graupel that fell pre dawn. Moderate snow at the moment with brief periods of heavy when a strong band comes through. Looking at radar, 10+ may be a real possibility now. Perhaps even a foot. Trees are bending down. Worried we will lose power.
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This looks like sleet mixed with freezing rain right now. It's 31° here. This could get ugly fast. I'm going to set my alarm and try to catch a little sleep. Hopefully this ZR is short lived.
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Heavy sleet at 32°. No flakes at all. But when I say heavy sleet, I mean it. I don't remember ever seeing sleet come down that hard. Even as sleet, it's accumulating. The 925-850 mb is being annoying atm even as far east as Bristol.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The battle line is drawn and the trench is dug in deep. But all is not quiet on the western front....- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
925-850 column is probably and finally cooling on that side of Clinch now like had down here in Bristol. Enjoy the show!- 1,195 replies
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32° and moderate snow. Only got an inch of accumulation so far but that is probably due to the initial sleet/graupel slush mix melting on the ground. Things are picking up now. Expect accumulations to build from this point forward.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Event is already underway but worth posting the 0z ECMWF totals before things get crazy:- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Downsloping off Clinch Mtn perhaps? There may also be downsloping off Holston Mtn, but I am far enough away that it isn't affecting me.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, keep in mind that it is still really early and I hadn't originally expected a full changeover to snow until around 3-4AM at my location. I've got a slushy accumulation on everything that isn't pavement. Sleet/graupel mix with flakes right now. We're no where near the meat of the event and I expect the column will continue to cool despite the nose. May be near, perhaps after dawn before TYS sees anything significant as far as snowfall. KTRI should be all snow well before then.- 1,195 replies
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Temp holding at 33° but getting a heavy sleet/graupel mix with flakes.
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Same here. Surfaces starting to cover.
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33° here now.
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Same here. This has started well before I expected. Heavy wet flakes. Oh boy...
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Light snow continues to fall with a little bit of sleet mixed. 37 now. I don't think we're going to see any rain at all now. All frozen at this point. Edit: Make that 35° now. Temp is falling fast. I would still consider light snow but it has definitely picked up the pace. Game on...
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Sleet has changed to light snow. Temp is now 38°F. Can't say I ever remember it snowing, even if light, at 38°F.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I had a burst of heavy sleet for about five minutes and now it's light. Again, expected only light rain at this point, hence my comment that the column must be cooling fast. Hopefully this means we will miss a significant duration of freezing rain.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have heavy sleet coming down right now. Surprised as it's 39°. The column must be cooling rapidly. I am about 10 miles just south of Bristol.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
3k NAM is insane. Heavy snow in bright echoes for a long time over KTRI. This is going to be a monster run.- 1,195 replies
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Still sitting at 40° for four straight hours near Bristol. Kind of surprised it hasn't dropped a little at least. I'm sure it will start falling once the precip picks up.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not only has it caved, look at how much better it resolves the vort at 850mb. The past few days it didn't even resolve 145dm. We essentially have stronger lift in the weakness over the Southern/Central Apps. That, and also the precip column should be a classic dynamic cooling event for heavy wet snow.- 1,195 replies
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Edit: Moving this out of the main thread since I just realized we have this storm obs thread going. John, can you get the obs thread stickied? I reached 41° about an hour ago. Now 40° with a light breeze. Expected high was 43° but that's basically static. Though I guess 2° difference does matter when it's all down hill from here. Idk, perhaps it doesn't matter when it will probably be snowing above 32° for most of the AM, hence the heavy ratio. Probably won't get below freezing until after dawn unless the rates are absurd and it drives down the air temperature in the column much faster.
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have increased my expectations for the total at my location south of Bristol near the Holston River. My original thinking was 4-6" inches, but these late runs so close to event have me convinced to go higher. I expect 5:1, then 8:1 ratios as the column cools, then perhaps 10:1 between 7-10AM. Thinking 7-10 inches of cement. I had thought some nose might reach us here, perhaps enhanced by some downsloping, but that may be a minimal effect versus rapid cooling of the column. We'll be lucky to keep power.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Latest ECMWF for posterity:- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just noticed that for KTRI. Of course, still early in meso land and subject to change, but .25 to .4 with significant heavy snow on top would be disgusting. Models were hinting/showing this last night and I want no part of it. As I said last night as well, hopefully initial rain will transition to sleet quickly and then that forcing turns all snow in short order and remains snow through conclusion of event by Monday AM.- 1,195 replies
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
18z 32k NAM resolved a much better defined 850 vort over N. AL/GA and 700 mb weakness up into Kentucky versus 12z. No surprise at greater forcing and crushing snowfall rates over ETN this round. You can follow the 304dm and 145dm contours respectively.- 1,195 replies
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