Windspeed

Grace's remnant surface trough is redeveloping into a cyclone SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Explosive convection is persistent and likely to regenerate a closed vortex at this rate. This will get a new name if reaches TS strength even though Grace is the source of the disturbance. Per WMO rules, a tropical system must remain classified between basins to retain its original name.

NOAA2 is en route so we should get a sampling of Henri despite the earlier AF Hurricane Hunter abort.

New England regional subforum has the hot thread. Makes sense since that is where it will be making landfall and the forum kind of rose out of the ashes of EasternWx. The tropical subforum threads are hotter when its a purely tropical and subtropical latitude event. This system isn't exactly going to make people "OMG!!" at any point from an intense hurricane aspect, outside of some kind of unforeseen atmospheric phenomenon. I should clarify Henri is still a dangerous threat, but more from a hydrological event. A Gloria or '38 it aint. Edit: Now watch since I made a that snooty insulting comment about Henri above, it drops 20 milibars over the next 6 hours.

I realize this thread is being neglected somewhat with several busy regional (PA/NY/Mid-Atlantic/NE) forums with a landfalling Henri. At any rate, Henri is now Hurricane Henri. The third Atlantic hurricane and the first time since 2012 to have three this early. Kind of a surprising stat on the latter there as we've had some busy seasons since 2012.

6z GFS does keep a fairly steady motion into landfall. The distance between 6 hr positons doesn't decrease too much until Grace is inland. Still, that is at least 12 hours over decreasing thermodynamic support. I'm not sure how much baroclinic influence the binary interaction could give during that time for convective support to mix down 700-850 hPa level winds. Could surprise but obviously the biggest threat is flooding, which has been and should continue to be overstated.

It's not that bad considering the simulation of binary trough interactions vary. Even slight variance and position a few hours post initialization can lead to big differences 24-36 hrs out in capture, recurve, slow down, landfall point, etc. These are just difficult to model and forecast.

Still a good bit of ocean left to cross as well. Should be a pretty hurricane at landfall. Josh is at the forecast landfall to punch the core. Looks like Grace is going to be a sexxy beast afterall.

Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change.

You misfired, sir.

Further west track may be faster motion into landfall as well due to better steering influence of the mid-to-upper trough. The pure NE landfall is more of a slow-down prior to landfall. But it's a little too early to know for sure on these interactions.

Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here.

Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely.

Haha yes. I am still skeptical of hurricane intensity at landfall with Henri though. If it slows down as much as modeled, it's going to be falling apart. If the trough interaction is stronger or the mid level steering flow is a little stronger, then perhaps.

Grace has deep convection expanding about its northern semicircle. Recon may find a hurricane again by the time it gets there this morning. It has enough time to undergo some significant intensification today, but it will need to wrap that deeper convection around the southern periphery.

Yes. Laura had an awesome eye during the 24 hours leading up to landfall.

It's super impressive that Henri never decoupled. Total Joaquin job. A lot to be said about divergent shear, even when those values would decapitate most systems. The crazy instability driving just enough intense convection rotating up draft to keep the vortex tilted versus sheared off. Tomorrow will be more about a big change in evacuation away from the vortex versus impediment to the upper half.

A beefy impressive mid level vortex tilted away from the LLC. The convection looks amazing but its just not stacked yet.

Just taking a peek in here. Figured this's where all the action is tonight...