Windspeed

You said you agreed with JB. At any rate, based on your climatological assessment, it is my interpretation that you are going to be very wrong about this season like you were the past four years. You keep relying on June through intraseasonal early August storm activity to proclaim what peak to second half of an Atlantic tropical season will or will not do. Furthermore you repeat yourself incessantly when there's not a system reaching hurricane status. We could have had a drinking game by now based on how many times you have mentioned phase 2 MJO in the active threads. Your evidence based on the long-range operational outputs when you make bold claims, among other things, opens yourself up to a lot of criticism. That subtropical region comment you just made was a little much, even for you.

This post makes no sense. 1) Where did JB elude to season state anywhere in that tweet? 2) What type of season is it exactly? 3) Why would you ignore any system with potential based on any given season anyway?

No doubt Fred has a well-defined LLC per early visual this morning.

To say Grace is poorly organized is an understatement. Though radar doesn't tell the entire tale, the system is pretty much entirely within TJUA WSR-88D. So we are at least given a hint at what's under the hood. Whether nearby in the low levels or at a distance in the mid levels, there's just a piss-poor representation of a closed circulation regardless of satellite presentation. I really have no bearing on what will become of Grace. In this state it could organize and deepen with a wide variance of track path or do nothing but cause flooding concerns for Hispaniola.

Potential heavy rain into next weekend through the Tennessee Valley thanks to redevelopment of TC Fred. Don't want too much too fast but some places sure need a prolonged soaker.

Flight engineer Nick Underwood giving explanation for their recent flight path through Grace:

That 5pm AST track is not so graceful...

To be fair, most Atlantic systems east of the Lesser Antilles struggle prior to the current climatological date. On top of that, both Fred and Elsa had significant interactions with the mountainous terrains of Hispaniola and Cuba besides the marginal atmospheric state. Fred has fared far worse than Elsa so far. Remains to be seen how Grace will evolve here in the short-term. But there really is a lot to be said about that August 20th date that Dr. William Gray harped about every season. Granted we do have earlybirds on occasion, but that is when the proverbial switch tends to flip on for the MDR.

12z GEFS ensembles trended west.

I really think that complex of convection (purple arrow) is merely a strong MCS that is not associated with the true low level vorticity that does appear to have some low level westerly flow on its south side (red arrow). That MCS will probably erode downstream. I am more interested in the subtle banding that appears to be forming near that true center. The steering flow should slow down some over night and perhaps this will allow Grace to organize further. As always, satellite and even radar can sometimes be a bit deceiving.

12z HWRF:

Looks like they clearly flew through the old wave axis there, whether that leads into the broader circulation or eroded old broad one, whichever. Guess we'll just have to be patient and see what the MLC is like showing up on radar and whether that is a vortex down to the surface.

The 12z HWRF just took a big swing left of previous runs and tracks Grace a good bit south of the Isle of Youth still on a due west track at hr 117.

Or... the system isn't even closed. lol. They'll investigate western region, I'm sure.

I think recon missed the center. Actually they flew on a heading through where hypothetically the broader center should have been located. Perhaps there is a low level vorticity maximum further west.

Radar has some suspicious banding that may be trying to consolidate a core. That feature is only barely coming unto view. This may still only be a mid level displaced circulation from the low level center however. So yes, reiterating recon's importance. But there is no doubt Grace looks improved over yesterday. See red X..

Major Hurricane Linda has reached Category 4 intensity at 130 mph per latest advisory. I don't expect it to get much stronger. It has likely maxed out its potential for now.

Little suspicious that strong MCS/CDO feature is outrunning the broader low level circulation versus aligning over it. Easterly mid level steering flow appears to still be stronger than low level steering flow. We'll have a much clearer picture when recon gets out there of course.

Strong earthquake just hit Haiti. With all the heavy rain there, that's not good. Hopefully any landslides that may've occurred were minimal.

Taking into account parallax from satellite viewpoint, Clarion Island was entirely within Linda's eye earlier this morning. The last report from the there was a 106 mph gust reported within the NHC's 3AM MDT advisory.

Hurricane Linda in the EPAC looks like its entering a period of RI. This may really go nuts over the next 24 hours. If this seems eerily familiar, that's because the name Linda is synonymous with powerful EPAC hurricanes. 1997 Major Hurricane Linda reached Category 5 intensity and is eclipsed only by Patricia as the most powerful EPAC hurricane on record. The name did not get retired despite the achievement and impacts on Socorro Island however. It nearly made landfall there and destroyed infrastructure without killing anyone fortunately. This year's Linda likely will not reach its predecessor's lofty status, but Category 4 cannot be ruled out here. This is clearly bombing.