Windspeed

Yeah, it seems the mid-level shear is persisting and really doing a number on Franklin at this time.

Well, I mean, we did just have what would normally be a mid-to-late August Caribbean cruiser get smacked to all hell, then get kicked NNE of the Greaters by unrelenting Caribbean SW flow. Hrmmm.... But we may still get a major out this thanks to near virtually perfect timing.

Looks like Franklin is going to find itself in an area of favorable upper divergence and a pocket of low wind shear in a few days as it swings west of Bermuda. Should be a solid poleward outflow jet to exhaust. Franklin is our first shot at a major. The TC models like it. Hopefully, it steers clear of coastal Canada. The Atlantic may find big ACE producers tough to come with uncertainties in the overall ASO pattern, but Franklin may give us a little bit here if it can go off over the weekend.

There is nothing on radar to suggest rapid development of a core occurring. It's just a slow and steady organizing cyclone. Folks there will gladly handle a little wind to get the beneficial rains for southern Texas. Now, if we can just get one of these into the Houston region and north-central Texas.

It's got perhaps 30 hrs left before landfall? If it can get a core established, it has a shot at minimal cane. That obviously would require a pretty impressive period of RI. But with the favorable upper environment and SSTs being so high, I'd say chances of RI are decent if that core can get established by this evening. Even if that doesn't occur, it should still be an intensifying TS into landfall.

A strong fetch is in place off the Baja with placement of Hilary's low and low-level jet. This event looks to be living up to the hype.

Hopefully, it's not a precursor event. LA can handle a 5.1 and smaller. But with all the ongoing flooding, we definitely don't want to see anything stronger.

There is an EQ swarm occurring near Ojai, CA.

Just became Franklin, and you must be confusing this system (topic) with the Gulf of Mexico system. Franklin will not be a threat to the Gulf but could pose some interaction with the Mid-Atlantic to New England depending on how modeling evolves and trough vs western Atlantic ridging interaction.

Yeah, this is looking like a really significant flash flooding event for many areas of SoCal.

The issue here is a western MDR TUTT. The GFS seems to drive a TC through it, north of the Greater Antilles; but obviously that scenario isn't ideal for westward moving TC into WNW steering flow. I wouldn't get too excited yet. The pattern is crap for any long range CV system. We're just going to have to see what early September brings. I am not confident for above normal activity. I already stated this. We'll see... Yes, of course a home-grown frontal remnant system could develop or a CAG system in the western Caribbean. But that is very low probability. It's just going to take some serious patience to see how this all irons out. To put it mildly, I think the whole setup is garbage. Regardless of the AMO state, I do not like the upper level environment and state of subsidence right now.

Hurricane Dora is only a few hours from crossing the dateline and becoming a typhoon. Shear is noticably increasing as well.

Dora looks healthy again after a bout with shear. Only a temporary reprieve as southwesterly shear is forecast to pick up again on Friday, or Saturday, rather, as it will have crossed the dateline and became a typhoon.

Very strong trades have been wreaking havoc on Hawaii the past few days. Influenced by tight gradient funneling between the strong ridge to the north and Major Hurricane Dora to the south. The Lee side of the volcanic topography and the gradient is fueling ongoing devastating wildfires.

Dora is very intense with a presentation looking like a high end Cat 4 right now.

000 NOUS44 KMRX 081529 PNSMRX TNZ067-068-082200- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1129 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 ...Preliminary EF-2 Storm Damage of the Lovell Crossing Apartments, Knoxville Tennessee... The preliminary damage assessments of the Lovell Crossing Apartments in Knoxville Tennessee is a EF2 tornado with winds up to 130 mph and a path width of 200 yards. The National Weather Service office in Morristown TN will continue to assess the damage across the area today. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Monday, August 7, 2023. A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by 5 PM Today. The storm survey information will also be available on our website at https://www.weather.gov/mrx $$

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already.

Yikes! Yes, I've been spreading the word to everyone. Regardless of the slight tornado risk, it looks like a legitimate threat of wind damage as these storms move through.

Look at the setup for mid-month/Aug. 15th-16th on both recent runs of the ECMWF and the GFS. That look is not a favorable one for anything approaching the Caribbean. There are poorly positioned TUTTs and strong upper-level westerlies across Caribbean. It looks to me that something would need to get lucky positioning-wise north of the Greater Antilles. But any disturbance is going to have to overcome shear and subsidence in the MDR first. Generally, upper levels are calming down in around this time regardless of lingering subsidence in the central basin. You'll see signs in modeling from 500 to 200 hpa. I don't see those signs yet.

I don't see any window of above normal activity now. We're getting into the midrange and I just don't see it. Looks like +ENSO is going to beat down +AMO to me. Any hyperactive stretch is going to be a surprise for me. Perhaps there is a pocket of favoribility in late August before El Niño takes over.

Potential severe in the eastern Valley tomorrow. Slight tornado potential prior to MCS formation. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Excerpt:

SSTs are marginal 26.5-27°C for what you would expect to support a Category 4. But given the donut annular structure and relative fast motion of 18kts, the eyewall appears to have just enough OHC to maintain intensity. Will be interesting to see how long Dora can keep this up. The TC has generated 20 ACE points so far. SSTs remain around 27°C on a due west heading. However, there does appear to be some increasing easterly trades in a few days south of Hawaii which may impart some mid-level shear, or possibly force surrounding dry air into the circulation.

I'm wondering if that's going to be a theme of the season. Yes, it's just the beginning of August, but there are bad placements of southern heat ridges and TUTTs to contend with that may very well not go away due to ENSO and strong upper evacuation out of the EPAC, regardless of the +AMO. Beating a dead horse here, but perhaps it bears repeating. That August window of activity I was counting on looks to be getting smaller and smaller. Of course, even if a window of favorable upper pattern evolves over the MDR within the next few weeks as hinted by modeling, we've still got that pesky dry air and subsidence to deal with, which isn't abnormal in early-to-mid August.

This evening through Tuesday will have better conditions and a moister environment to support development. 95L really fell apart yesterday, though, and with only weak vorticity right now, I'm not sure it will be able to take advantage. Might be dead to rights unless it can reignite some persistent convection along its axis that has separated from the ITCZ. The caveat here is that even if 95L were to grt its act together and develop into a TC during the next few days, it looks like it will ultimately be doomed to hostile conditions in the central Caribbean.