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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Yes...before it fails too.
  2. mitchnick
    Gem cutoff is incredulous. It'll shift south on future runs. Cold will win.
  3. mitchnick
    Should have known Gfs would fail when the Gefs had 1".
  4. mitchnick
    Thinking Gem looks better. We'll see.
  5. mitchnick
    Gfs is just overwhelmed by cold.
  6. mitchnick
    Knew it was coming early on. So far, Gem still looks like 12z.
  7. mitchnick
    I believe that's overdone with just flurries. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150
  8. mitchnick
    18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th.
  9. mitchnick
    Shockingly, 18z AI almost brings the big storm to us stopping in SPA. I'm talking next Thursday, the 24th. Maybe some hope still out there for that, and maybe not. Lol
  10. mitchnick
    Euro AI 18z passes the Sunday threat just to our south thru MD/VA...God help me please!
  11. mitchnick
    And it ain't close to being over at that point either.
  12. mitchnick
    Absolutely. I have a 2-bit theory that you want to be in the bullseye for the first area wide of the season because it almost always means your chances of being the bullseye in subsequent events is higher, and don't want to be on the short end for the first area wide event because it increases odds you'll repeat. I have found for the mid Atlantic area, it works often.
  13. mitchnick
    Anybody take a peak at the end of the HH GFS? Man is it sweet, even for lala land. But Gfs/Gefs have been advertising something big at the end of their runs for a day+.
  14. mitchnick
    The negative for those of us east of the mts is that it comes thru early PM so boundary temps are peaking.
  15. mitchnick
    18z Euro slowed up the vort for Sunday's threat. Always paranoid delayed results in denied.
  16. mitchnick
    For everyone else who's paranoid, Eps 6hr precip 144hrs on 18z vs 12z at 150hrs. Pretty close really.
  17. mitchnick
    Wasn't 93/94 a big overrunning year for you folks?
  18. mitchnick
    I hate seeing anything different on subsequent runs after a good one because you never know where it will take you.
  19. mitchnick
    As long as the end result was what it showed on the 12z run, leed the way CMC. It's all yours baby.
  20. mitchnick
    Yeah, but there was no snow on the 12z Euro at 150hrs either, but ready to pop. You can see as Heisey posted the vort hangs back some. Being in the bullseye of sorts at this range is down right uncomfortable.
  21. mitchnick
    Comparing 18z Euro 144hrs to 12z 150hrs.
  22. mitchnick
    Heights lower on the east coast at the end of this run of the Euro means slp could be further south if model continued. Just speculation at this point. Next run could be different, of course.
  23. mitchnick
    Result better with Euro or too early to know? Pivotal is slower that WB.
  24. mitchnick
    Now THAT'S my idea of overrunning! Oh, how I wish. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011318&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
  25. mitchnick
    He always would bring up that storm. It dropped like 8-10" in the DCA/BWI area and then had highs in the teens. Actually, for the first time, it may not be such a bad analogy tempwise but just a touch short on snow..or maybe not. We'll see. Reagan's inauguration was cold, but no snow.
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