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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational.
  2. mitchnick
    Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186
  3. mitchnick
    18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon.
  4. mitchnick
    Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.
  5. mitchnick
    I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker.
  6. mitchnick
    I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN.
  7. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000
  8. mitchnick
    Didn't look. Busy cursing out my law school buddy in Salisbury.
  9. mitchnick
    Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational.
  10. mitchnick
    Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question.
  11. mitchnick
    I think the first storm works out, but that 2nd storm wreaks of a miss to my SE. You're in better shape than me though.
  12. mitchnick
    .44
  13. mitchnick
    Eastern NC gets hit again at 294hrs. Lol
  14. mitchnick
    I said plausible, not guaranteed.
  15. mitchnick
    The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question.
  16. mitchnick
    Casablanca
  17. mitchnick
    Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too.
  18. mitchnick
    What a tease on the Gfs at 225hrs.
  19. mitchnick
    It's going to continue south in future runs because it's the Gfs. 18z vs 12z.
  20. mitchnick
    How about the Eps, if you happen to know?
  21. mitchnick
    Nah, more of a dual gonadectomy.
  22. mitchnick
    Considering we're looking at little or nothing this week, which we've known for a while, it's not quite as bad as it looks.
  23. mitchnick
    Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.
  24. mitchnick
    The guy, Mike, on Bamwx does a nice job explaining things.
  25. mitchnick
    Gfs looks sorta like PD2 with that east-west area of overrunning snow for 12+ hours. I'll take that and call it a season if I had to. Lol
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