mitchnick

Gfs is ugly.

Keep delaying the Gfs or Euro and there could be some HP to the north show up. Lol

Sun's out with random flakes falling from a cloud that's past by. It's like heaven for weenies. Lol

Not abnormal for boundary in an overrunning event to move north, but that's a detail to worry about if it's still there in 10 days. Lol Our fate rests on the strength of the SER, for better or for worse. Hopefully it works in our favor at least some of the time.

6z AI still has the low passing pretty far to our west which might open the door for zr/ip. However, verbatim surface temps are above freezing until about Harrisburg, PA. At the end of the run it's showing an overrunning snow potential similar to 0z operational Euro. I think we'll have to endure a couple warmer storms before the SER is beaten down enough for us to be on the right side of the boundary, assuming it ever gets to our south.

Yep. I'll take a pass on that one. Gotta take the Canadian seriously however. What has become clear is that with this "correcting" with every model cycle, though snow may not be favored now, everything remains on the table.

I remember that embossed postage envelope. It switch to 6 cents a few years later.

All I can say is who knows with any certainty what's going to happen next week. 6z Euro operational and Eps at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs. It doesn’t mean it's going to snow, but it does mean I ain't giving up yet. P.s. Don’t get seasick.

Snowing in Hanover. Coating already.

Lt sn in Hanover

Verbatim, it hiys NE pretty good. Could see that comkng. Plenty of time. I'm out for the night.

The cold is far more expansive and intense. More single digits.

Speaking of which, end of the 18z Euro run shows quite a noticeable change between 12z and 18z.

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000

Idk but it's median not mean

Though not great, EPS snow mean increased this run vs 0z and yesterday's 12z fwiw. P.s. Didn’t bother to look at threats,just total.

Surface temps BN at the end of the Eps run despite the SER.

Might be firing up too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-rain-and-mean-sea-level-pressure-3283

E mm d of the AI run ain't so bad with Canada Not cold per se, but I started writing a post that Canada is flooded with surface cold air and a front has just come through. There is still a trough in the SW and a flattened SE Ridge. Here's the 500mb/850 temp map on top and surface temps below. https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-500-hpa-geopotential-height-and-850-hpa-temperature-591 https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-2-m-temperature-and-10-m-wind-58318 If you change the 850 temp map to North Pole from NA, you can see that most of the cold at 850 is on our side of the Pole.

12z AI ain't budging.

Hang up the phone and call an Uber!

I posted yesterday that the Gefs extended had the wave into 8 by 2/20, but has updated today and has delayed that. No other progs get it to, or close to, 8 but the Gefs extended. So we need to root for it and to speed up. Otoh, we could always cobble something together that is neither reliant on nor wrecked by the MJO, providing it's a weak wave. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

7 ain't so hot in February during a Nina. La Nada not much better. We need 8.

Did you really expect it to hold? Runs like that at 10 days never do. In fact, runs like that at any range hardly ever hold.