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bkviking

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Everything posted by bkviking

  1. What you just said makes sense - because by September the rising motion in Atlantic , while still there, has tailed off. I don’t know.
  2. I’m curious to ask about following photos from Ben Noll on Twitter showing the rising and sinking motion forecasts this month, next, June, then September - with a sudden change in June - which continues on his tweet all summer. This is due to El Niño circulation beginning to take over. My question is , with all the rising motion in East Pacific forecast why does Atlantic also show rising motion ? Shouldn’t the circulation suppress convection there? Any idea what this means - as this is modeled? Does this indicate possibly more active Atlantic hurricane season than normal ?
  3. In Port Jefferson it started nice but “drizzery” is here and suddenly much cooler.
  4. April 8, 2024 is going to be last full widespread eclipse for many of us on this board. At this point it’s about pinpointing the best possible viewing conditions. Sadly , the Ohio valley and northeast Great Lake region is known for cloudiness. So where is it good ? Southwest Texas is the best spot it seems based on these maps but can track as we head into year.
  5. Not expecting much here in Smithtown - north shore LI - but lightening constant to west - and hearing rolling Thunder… constantly .. pretty cool even if it wanks out. It’s early April .
  6. I really don’t understand how other sub forums don’t seem to interact/post about what’s coming 4/4. I mean - some of attention behind this thing is rather extraordinary- high confidence major outbreak larger than what they went through yesterday.
  7. Yeah my bad. The severe weather moments are flickering moments and every outlook is usually more hope than reality. June 2010. August 2014. November 2022. That’s of top of mind. Our marine layer makes LI a severe storm wasteland most times.
  8. CPC has us warmer than normal. Not sure that means much anymore. But above normal precip - which tends to be an El Niño symptom for our area. Anecdotally, incoming El Niños have been nasty summers. Summer 2009 is one that sticks in mind as such a nightmare. But I’m sure others can offer the true statistics on these.
  9. 57° in Port Jefferson - with breaking clouds. Was light rain an hour ago. We need sun to have chance at storms. Luckily , I don’t count on it here in Suffolk in April.
  10. 4/4/23: Gensini is usually cautious..
  11. DCA: +1.7 NYC: +1.5 BOS: +1.3 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +2.1 IAH: +2.1 DEN: -0.4 PHX: -0.6 SEA: -1.0
  12. It’s astounding out— wind hasn’t wrecked things here as I expected (yet). Long range shows rain next Saturday again. I hope not. Seems like every weekend has had one bad day - either really cold, or rainy - for many weeks now.
  13. You’re one of the treasures of this weatherboard and have been keenly followed by me through multiple boards now. But the human element of a rough fate I think many of us relate to or have experienced. In my case my mom was in a nursing home from 2016, shutdowns happened 3/11/20, we were unable to see her and in that time she exhibited signs of some massive issue which ended up being breast cancer. My 3 sisters and myself rushed to get her out of NH to not let her die alone and we got her out June 9, 2020 and she died 10 days later. It’s still a shock to us - no matter that she was 84. So fellow heartfelt condolences over your situation - where a you as a family member tried your best - easily all for the better - but regardless such tragic ends and stresses resulted. Also , the brutality of cancer and how it creates a type of suffering that afflicts the victim but also their loved ones. Never experienced that before in my family but it strikes so many of us and tears us apart. I , too , like any of us on this thread , will keep an eye out for anything but wishing you best wishes to get through this rough period but just knowing it will eventually get better.
  14. DCA: -1.8 NYC: -1.4 BOS: -1.2 ORD: -1.8 ATL: +0..5 IAH: +1.5 DEN: -1.2 PHX: +0.2 SEA: +0.2
  15. 2009-10 was perfect - winter in December , then one of biggest Februarys all time.. big , warm storm ~ March 7/8 then torch away into a perfect Spring and tons of 90s with much lower DewPoints than recent years .
  16. DCA: +3.8 NYC: +3.4 BOS: +3.4 ORD: +2.2 ATL: +3.2 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +0.8 PHX: +0.2 SEA: +0.2
  17. Well - though it still fluctuates - that’s weakest this - ENSO has become in a long time, Don.
  18. Chuck or someone - isn’t it time to start a new ENSO topic as it appears we will at least end La Niña and looking more likely that an inevitable El Niño could be coming .
  19. Snow flurries in Port Jefferson , LI.
  20. DCA: +2.7 NYC: +3.0 BOS: +3.0 ORD: +2.0 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +0.2 SEA: +0.4
  21. Anyone know what happened to Isotherm? Miss his analysis. I think his last winter outlook a few years ago frustrated him.
  22. Cool looking line approaching LI now
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