bkviking

DCA: +1.2 100 NYC: +1.0 99 BOS: +1.1 97 ORD: +0.7 99 ATL: +1.0 100 IAH: +1.0 101 DEN: +1.8 100 PHX: +1.8 119 SEA: +1.2 94

Don - the SOI has been way above average between moderately strong and extremely above average for seemingly weeks now. I presume this despite MJO/ CCKW crossing the pacific - nonetheless it is reinforcing a La Niña pattern . Can this lend confidence to at least next 4 months ? even if things suddenly changed - isn’t this La Niña pattern baked into future at this point ? i am not sure but presume we are safe with La Nina styled pattern for summer at this point . mot sure where we stand statistically at this point although this is quite anonymous with a third year La Niña .

Port Jefferson as storms approach. Buddy on other side about to take ferry in Bridgeport reported hail

This from Twitter from Dr Alecia Bentley on severe storms in northeast and why certain o patterns over-perform (maybe explaining tonight’s underperformance) https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/32/5/waf-d-17-0044_1.xml

Yep. Heavy rain , a little breezy in PJ. Was really trying to have hope. Nope. Cleaned truck or pollen though

Nice little hook developing with this tiny cell heading towards Port Jefferson

Pretty cool graphic depiction for wind direction at Islip. Didn’t know they analyze this like that. I believe Bluewave has done stats on wind direction for each season.

Jeez I blew it in April - didn’t foresee below normal even with solid forecast for blocking. much more cautious for May despite predicted breaking down of AO/NAO.

DCA: +0.5 NYC: +0.5 BOS: +0.2 ORD: -0.2 ATL: +1.0 IAH: +1.3 DEN: +0.8 PHX: +1.2 SEA: +0.2 i don’t have a good feel. April turned our colder than I thought . A bit gun shy now. Cool start NE with warmer finish ?

Does this lead to increased tropical activity in the Atlantic? Didn’t we just go through this a few years ago?

Thanks Roger.

DCA +0.8 NYC +0.9 BOS +0.4 ORD +1.0 ATL +2.2 IAH +1.6 DEN +1.0 PHX +0.4 SEA -0.8

Absolute miserable day on LI North Shore. Endless rain on north and I can see just 20 miles south ain’t dealing with this.

Hail here in Port Jefferson LI

I drove from Smithtown (Landing Ave area) to Stony Brook around 6pm and roads were covered with snow and it was a slow drive, so it definitely iced up. On way back just now from Stony Brook to Smithtown and roads were treated.

DCA +2.6 NYC +1.9 BOS +1.4 ORD +0.2 ATL +2.9 IAH +2.0 DEN +0.9 PHX +1.4 SEA +.2

I have hated the winters since 2012-13 since then it’s been a mass negative EPO driving winter after winter and I’m sick of it. I will always love 2002-2003 to 2010-11 far more. We’ve just had brutal and ruinous springs since the big climate change the massive EPO is now what determines winter.. and it’s sad bc it doesn’t measure up to the massive negative Ao/NAO era

Port Jefferson - snow squall warning now in effect

I wish he was right. I never considered this before but Oil bills are out of control. Gas is a little different , but with it. I hate hate seeing a - EPO build now . Just screw off cold producer. Just the theme since we swapped out of -AO/-NAO period ending 2011. EPO is becoming our main producer of cold and snow since 2011. I got my 40” of snow here Smithtown and would love a run at a record but it ain’t happening so - not happy with change in long range models at this point in season .

I’m Port Jeff Village now. Seems like 3/4

Thank you Walt . I’ve been waiting for someone to assess this issue - whether issue or not / but need someone to do it. So thank you

I’m with you and posted this in NE forum - I will say I was you but family photos and memories corroborate that that beast was our best :I lived in Sound Beach on north shore of LI and I still consider this the standard. Of course, I was younger and didn’t know how to compare it to anything else. Been through so many “Blizzards” now in life it’s hard to compare all these 20” storms other than to say I know the 1/29/22 blizzard had nice drifting and cold temps with no mixing issues. PD2 similar - just brutal cold before the storm and kinda windy and lotsa blowing snow. Some had more turbulence with thunder and insane snow rates (2/8/13, Boxing Day); some were novel - 1996 was the first really 20 incher on years. Still in my heart - 1978 holds a special place and seeing analysis all these years later it was a classic cold blizzard with some of the strongest winds of them all and biggest drifts - for my area on North Shore of LI.

Agree with you here. I lived in Sound Beach on north shore of LI and I still consider this the standard. Of course, I was younger and didn’t know how to compare it to anything else. Been through so many “Blizzards” now in life it’s hard to compare all these 20” storms other than to say I know the 1/29/22 blizzard had nice drifting and cold temps with no mixing issues. PD2 similar - just brutal cold before the storm and kinda windy and lotsa blowing snow. Some had more turbulence with thunder and insane snow rates (2/8/13, Boxing Day); some were novel - 1996 was the first really 20 incher on years. Still in my heart - 1978 holds a special place and seeing analysis all these years later it was a classic cold blizzard with some of the strongest winds of them all and biggest drifts - for my area on North Shore of LI.

You just had me check mine and yes - 1035mb so that’s good for 30.6” or something so quite high

DCA +1.2 NYC +1.0 BOS +1.0 ORD -1.4 ATL +1.2 IAH +0.6 DEN -0.4 PHX 0.3 SEA -1.2