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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    00z gfs differences thus far .
  2. Heisy
    Yep, it’s going back to what it was doing a few days ago splitting some of the shortwave off. If you look at the maps I posted you can see part of the left over energy in the southwest. This is the progression we likely need, but we also need the northern stream to cooperate .
  3. Heisy
    18z euro Ai, man, if only that northern piece dove SE ahead of the main shortwave, because it’s not overly amped. As is they come at the same time which doesn’t work for us. .
  4. Heisy
    12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings .
  5. Heisy
    Meh, GFS and cmc now resemble the Ai, ridge rolls over, ULL gets trapped under it, we lose confluence and it’s a cutter. .
  6. Heisy
    End of the icon doesn’t look terrible. That northern piece would beat out the cutoff. FWIW .
  7. Heisy
    It’s going to basically be the same as 12z I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now… If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh .
  8. Heisy
    It’s rolling on wxbell now .
  9. Heisy
    I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy? .
  10. Heisy
    Correct, the difference was around the time period the euro left energy behind and timed the northern stream with the little wave that was able to escape. Haven’t seen the Ai but I assume it did something like the CMC .
  11. Heisy
    12z euro vs 6z euro Ai… pretty close. Looks like some energy got left behind on the 12z. Timing of that northern stream wave isn’t good on the OP .
  12. Heisy
    CMC looks very close to the Ai but no confluence .
  13. Heisy
    GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look. .
  14. Heisy
    Can’t hate where this was potentially headed. Need the northern stream to beat out the ULl to provide extra cold shot .
  15. Heisy
    Holy smokes .
  16. Heisy
    6z out? .
  17. Heisy
    Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff. .
  18. Heisy
    Models will be all over the place with a cutoff like this, varying speeds etc. need to get lucky with timing. Hopefully we can! .
  19. Heisy
    Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event .
  20. Heisy
    Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about .
  21. Heisy
    End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball .
  22. Heisy
    Just saw the Ai, yea Mitch that’s really close to what we want to see .
  23. Heisy
    12z euro was really close with the bowling ball, needed a better timed TPV push .
  24. Heisy
    End of icon looks somewhat similar to the Ai, models will probably eventually bring the bowling ball East. We just will need the N/S and confluence to cooperate .
  25. Heisy
    The Ai has been consistently showing that ULL bowling ball head East for 2+ days now. Other models are a little stronger with the N/S push out ahead and all vary with that ULL. Hopefully we can balance both ha. .
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