Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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The NAM shouldn’t be used outside 18 hours let alone 48, it was supposed to be retired few years back. .
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28th time frame growing baby legs, big time hit on the 18z gfs, Ai had it at 12z, OP had a big wound up ULL, just something to keep in mind .
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Looks like a NW hit .
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18z gfs might try to do the same thing Ai did (Wave N of Texas) .
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Somehow the temps are in issue on that one even with a perfect track. It’s a perfectly timed shortwave behind another which I mentioned is one way to score next 10-15 days. I hope for Psu’s sanity that if the h5 looks like this it will snow lol .
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GEFS is bringing the tpv farther S run after run By 180 hours .
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Gfs actually looks good today. Even has a mid Atlantic snowstorm at the end .
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Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol .
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the temps are the issue with this one, low chance of snow next 2 weeks unless we time a shortwave perfectly behind one, but maybe around day 15-25 we can sneak something if we get a -epo or PNA ridge .
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I could see March 7-20th range having some last gasp threats .
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
12km Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12-18 hours, 3km more reasonable . -
Ai has been showing that wave a few runs now, but it’s been too warm. Obviously well out in time though .
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-Epo showing up Idk if this gets it done in March, but maybe if you ride that pattern out a few days it gets better .
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I bet if you check the H5 from those runs it was way off (GFS)
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Heisy replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, any weenies on here from there? Thought about taking a drive but idk if I have time . -
Euro Ai keeps popping a -EPO around day 15, A quality met. On our discord pointed out the best analogs for this year favor week 1-2 March. Snow chances the next 10-14 days look very low, and yeah maybe we are done, but we’ll see what happens .
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To be fair euro basically jumped ship right when the event got under 108 hours out or so. 96 hours has been the time frame for lock down mode this year. That’s 4 days, not bad. For weenies in E NC and Virginia Beach I’d be worried about an even more SE trend over next couple days. One of the worst winters of my 38 years on earth. I’d rather a 2001-02 winter than this crap where we get decent patterns that fail. .
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Wow yea I see the similarities there to this one .
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If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. .
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My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, maybe I’ll take a drive lol .
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It’s really just coming into the fold with pretty much every piece of guidance outside the NAM. Was probably to be expected .
