Heisy
-
Posts
9,070 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Heisy
-
Im just NE of Philly, I’m more worried about a rgem solution vs SE. That GEFS run was concerning as well too, there were a lot of NW solutions .
-
This is it’s shot to become famous. .
-
Getting a touch worried about this thing being too far Nw for the city lol. Rgem and icon to an extent are nerve racking .
-
Yeah it’s pretty insane how each model varies after Sunday .
-
Kuchera has more to do with lift vs temps I believe, combination .
-
Plausible scenario, 6z gfs almost did that before it was able to escape. I’ll worry about it later, hoping we can cash in 3-6 on Sunday .
-
6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct. .
-
Euro Ai is my go to model under 5 days and idc what anyone says. This thing is a beast. I know this event hasn’t happened yet, but all winter this thing locks in at this range. It’ll have minor ticks each run, but I haven’t seen it pull a full on big swing like the GFS or euro just did all winter. .
-
If the rgem was any sign for the cmc, it’ll probably be a really good hit .
-
Couldn’t sleep… End of the icon was going places… .
-
The change was the wave dropping down from the northern steam, it got stuck out west. Seems a lot of waves keep doing that lately lol… Going to bed myself too, i want 500 posts .
-
So, if you go back to older runs the second potential event we were tracking is at 180 hrs+. That 18z euro changed things up dramatically with strengthening that wave. I mean maybe that happens. I was more inclined to hope for more energy to be dumped out west and have the N stream come down and phase with it. I’m not in love with the spacing with that shortwave at 144 hours, but who knows?! Like Psu said this pattern may be tough for models to gauge. .
-
It’s odd it’s actually not the same time frame we’ve been tracking for round 2 .
-
Difference between GFS, CMC, and Euro AI at 90 hours To give you an idea of what differences each model has. 18z rgem was in the euro Ai camp fwiw .
-
The 18z rgem looks like the Euro AI at 84 hours. Models having issues parsing the shortwave on its speed and strength as it rounds the base. Money is on the euro Ai .
-
Funny story, like 5 days before eagles nfc championship vs falcons I told my dad there was a potential snowstorm for the game. I was in met. school at the time. My pop called WIP and told them, hour later Hurricane Schwartz got on the air and told them about the threat lol…. Of course it did snow, but the night before the game .
-
It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it .
-
Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it .
-
The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry .
-
At 168 hours I really thought the OP euro was going to phase the left over S stream energy and the N stream and bring a storm up the coast, but the flow was a bit progressive i suppose. The storm on the GFS was induced by the N stream diving down since there was no left over S energy. Long way to go to figure that one out. .
-
Off topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol .
-
Woof .
-
Have eagles ever had a playoff snow game? I remember the falcons nfc chip game was day after event… .
-
Give me a euro Ai sneak peek when it comes out .
-
Yep it was nice improvement. The northern stream piece plays a role though, that’s at the top of ridge out west at 144, looks a touch weaker, but we’ll see what happens. Have a good feeling about 00z runs .
