Heisy

Canadian gives us hope. Monster 50/50 low. Probably would shred any low anyway, Its ensembles like an event between day 9-11 I’m sure it’ll be gone though in 11 hours .

This storm has major issues I think. We don’t snow with Lps in the lakes. There’s no cold Press out ahead of it. Just that cutoff low that doesn’t really do anything. The mean is skewed by what Psu mentioned earlier imo. Warm and wet chilly and dry, there’s a reason the snow mean is putrid up to this point. Hope it changes but not feeling great .

I’m almost 40 and still have the original weenie in my heart. HM on our board gave us some hope about MJO wave. At least Ne is struggling with us this time. Now they feel the pain too. .

Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold. .

I realize that, it gets there eventually but we’re pushing 15 days then. It would def warm up ahead of that. Getting a little nervous that’s all. Negative Weenie vibes. I’m trying to hold it in lol .

I’m done. At this point let’s see how long we can go without an inch of snow. 3 years? 5 years? A decade? Maybe it’s possible idk? .

12z euro has that Jan 4-5 event but there’s just no room for it to do anything. The timing with the shortwave behind it and the N/S are horrible. Then it looks likes it’s about to cook up another rain storm day 10+ This gives me ptsd from last few years. Blocking with SE ridge. Someone get me a dog .

End of cmc run looks juicy. Probably need a little movement in key pieces, but it’s close. I personally like 6-8th as the time frame to watch .

Yea hopefully just a blip run, that would suck. Weeklies look good for SSW but they’re last night .

Don’t kill me too much, I know we have a window for something hopefully between 1/2-10, but this being the snow mean from the 6z GEFS through 300 hours is sad and discouraging. Just one run though . .

Wouldn’t really worry about the first couple days of Jan at this point. Looks like we may very well may get a SSW. I’m all in around mid month to Feb This is epic here .

Yea we’re in the warm sector of a cold front there… at that stage It has entered the plains. It would eventually come East, as I mentioned we’d warm up for a few days ahead of any arctic blast. That’s if GFS is even close to being right who knows… .

I was in Dover NJ for that event. Originally drove to Allentown and I think a few runs of the NAM and others freaked me out as there was shift to the N. Drove to Dover as it was starting. Was a good decision even though Allentown still got crushed as well Feb 2013 went to Marlboro MA (great storm but missed the prime band that went through CT etc) March 2013: the storm that slammed SNE I actually drove to NW VA as it originally looked great there. Ended up with like 6” of slop 2015 went to RI, missed the bulk in C MA 2020 went to Lewistown Pa, this one haunted me because The King Walt Drag PM me to go to Binghamton NY the morning of and I didn’t see it. I got slotted during the night of the storm and only ended up with like 14-16” if I recall while just N of me got 2’+ Went to Estes Park Colorado 2021. Fun storm just because of the location. Wasn’t as much snow as I was hoping for though. And of course the 2022 event Coastalwx referenced where I finally practically jackpotted .

I’ve done the same countless times. Gets me in that snowstorm mood. That was a fun trip. First time I ever made it to pretty much the jackpot region. Hoping to score a big event at home for once. .

Strat playing a role on the GFS .

And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… .

Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right .

I remember the GFS run during Christmas Day that clobbered us. My buddy was texting me, we still didn’t believe it until the euro that night came On board. Here in Philly the lead up of the event was more fun than the actually storm itself since we sort of got fringed of the good stuff, still a great memory. .

Probably some of the best runs of the year last night. This is getting close to textbook. Always ways we can fail but I’m starting to gain a lot of confidence we’ll see accumulating snow first 10 days of January. Also, check out the strat as posted by a user on our Philly sub. .

I think this event is probably a long shot. It then looks like Jan 2-5th is next on the docket based on the timing of all the shortwaves. Will have more cold air to work with. Just gotta time one of these STJ waves with a TPV diving SE out ahead of it. Let’s make it happen already, I’m really itching to track something .

EPS still looks good to me headed into January, but it doesn’t look as good as it did on the Sunday 12z run .

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right .

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though. Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO .

18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting… .

Yep, starting to feel really good about January. The 28-New Years range event is a long shot. Unless a 50/50 forms out ahead of the main low that’s a Rainer, but after that it’s game on. .