Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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This was the best EPS run we’ve had all year .
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This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot .
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I’ll roll the dice with this look at this range .
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Euro was tantalizingly close. Need a little better spacing between the two lows. Worth monitoring for sure .
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Yea sure, I was just curious in general about any analogs for this type of system .
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Will, any events off the top of your head with a similar trailer wave that blew up? Pretty odd setup to me with such a strong lead storm .
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Gfs trended better with diving the N/S farther S. It does have the same piece. Just not far enough S yet. Ukie on board as well btw. Focuses over NYC though. At this range just focusing on the larger features. .
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NSFW .
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12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though .
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Yea I had mentioned even the control was about to go bonkers over the region. You’d have to get into the ccb goods. Worth tracking for sure .
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Someone will def get a surprise if that H5 closes off and dives somewhere near the coast. Pinpointing that at this range is impossible but this is starting to gain legs. Would love the cmc Or gfs to show it today My gut tells me it probably ends up farther N since we don’t have a block, but who knows
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Yea has a little support. Icon, ukie sort of. As mentioned on our sub I do wonder if this is just euro bias. Hard to understand how that N/S is diving so far south without a block. At least it’s something to keep an eye on. .
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Just for fun but the 6z euro control was about to dump on the region. Ends at 144 but that N//S was closing off in a perfect spot. Anyway, I’m pretty intrigued if we can get this N/S to dive down. Crazy things can happen with a cutoff like that. I’d put it at very low probability, but from a meteorological-fan standpoint I’m rooting for something wild. .
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I don’t care if it’s 15 days out. Seeing some solid maps in fantasy range is always encouraging. It beats having them show garbage .
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HM Posted this the other day on our forum. 94 vs current model run. 94 was showing up on top analog lists when it was posted, not sure about now. I’m 37, that winter sucked, but I have a memory of the one big event we had just outside Philly. I woke up to thunder snow. .
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We had this discussion in Phillywx. Check out todays 12z euro vs December 94. 94-95 was pretty crap here in Philly outside one event in Feb where we just made on the cold side of a fast moving nor’easter. .
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18z gfs for the mid month event. Might start saving up for a trip to the mountains if these runs continue .
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Epic winter is a high bar these days. I’d honestly be happy with just one event with 12”+. I’m in this hobby for the woof big dog events. .
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Could def see the day 9-10 event being a big hitter for elevated areas/interior. Cold source just not there for most of us. Cutoff low. Couple of big hits for interior on eps .
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I can definitely see that 5-6th period being our first chance for something, whether that’s snow showers or accumulating snow. One Issue is the ridge positioning, just too far east for my liking. Doesn’t give room for the models to sharpen the trough. Long way out though. .
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This is my concern. Maybe I just have PTSD from last two years. .
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Actually only 7-8 .
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Any eps members, control, anything show any hits? .
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Actually ends up damn close. Don’t have maps, but wow what an ironic way to end winter this would be Lmao .
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Lol 18z gfs showing a very similar progression… .
