Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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This is a good post, the fantasy progression is basically the 12z GFS, but where the pattern leads to that second event coming up the coast. My money is on the energy coming E for an event on the 20th because that’s where the euro is generally at, but we’ll see .
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CMC progression is still completely different. Sometimes it does stuff like this outside day 5-6, but man that’s pretty stark difference. CMC probably leads to a much larger event if that energy comes E after the N/S races ahead It would be a few days after the 20th though .
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CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6. The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw .
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And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close .
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The gif map I posted is the actual shortwave that’s hitting us. Here is it earlier, look how the 6z run has a slower wave, better spacing .
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The 6z euro slowed down the shortwave behind the cold front. Euro Ai looks pretty similar at 144 and that spacing helped give us a decent scraper. Here was the Ai trend at H5 .
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Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144… .
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6z euro Ai looks decent, I’d take it, it looks like the OP at 144 so safe to assume OP probably would have had something similar .
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As always, GFS will be last to figure things out. I thought the 6z euro spaced the wave out better to allow for something to develop. Tough to say for sure though. Euro Ai continues to stay consistent. .
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Looks like a solid 3-6” event on that run. Shortwave sharpened. .
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Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th. .
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Gotta love the GFS form a potential big one same time period that Euro had it today. .
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CMC and gfs well apart with the progression of things .
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20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. .
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6z euro Ai sort of looks like the 6z GFS Light to moderate snow event for the 20th cities N&W .
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Can see why here, lot of members must be separating the waves, leaving energy behind like cmc… .
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Yeah it’s not a suppression issue it’s a spacing issue on the gfs, but like you said we’re way out in time currently for the potential time period. .
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So the progression of things is starting to become more clear. Northern stream is cooperating. However, the wave (in my gif) here on the GFS near 4 corners we need it to be stronger and a bit slower than 18z is showing. Future runs root for more of a cmc type with that wave .
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Oh it’s actually decent, it just didn’t have as strong of a wave out west. Looks like it still skims us at least. .
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Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell .
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This one’s for Ji, end of JMA, looks good with the cold front pushing east and a lot of energy load up out west. .
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Looks like euro trapped energy out west, but still close enough, we track .
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Yea it’s a lighter side hit, but if all the energy had come East, would have been like the cmc. It was close enough anyway at this range. We take for now .
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Looks like some energy got pinched off in the Southwest flow got ahead of it .
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You have SV eh, what’s it do?! .
