Heisy

If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. .

My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, maybe I’ll take a drive lol .

It’s really just coming into the fold with pretty much every piece of guidance outside the NAM. Was probably to be expected .

Euro will be tick SE .

It’s pretty crazy how fast high latitude blocking just breaks down over the next few days .

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Of course the 18z gfs is doing this, but we have no cold air lol .

If models only went out to 120 hours and beyond that we only used ensembles your opinion would be a lot different .

I think the kicker and lack of ridge out west hurts any chance for amplification. I agree you look at the map you posted and you’d think a big event was forming, but it just stays neutral and rides E. Frustrating .

Models aren’t the issue, it’s people trusting OP models outside 120 hours. Yesterday got us under that mark and boom they all started converging last night. They still identified the threat 200+ hours out. .

Models generally get into somewhat lock down mode once they get under the magic 120 hours number. Yes we’ll still see ticks either way, but not overhauls. Yesterday was that magic time frame and was why I was so nervous before 12z runs. Oh well. We can still muster .4-.6 of high ratio stuff (more for jersey). .

CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march .

One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls. Can’t control it, move on. .

In 1 day we went from this to that lol .

Go back to older runs which were really tucked and see what it did with that second wave .

The kicker is mucking it up more than people think. Yea the confluence is stronger on newer euro runs and that’s probably mainly why it’s trended SE, but that kicker doesn’t allow the shortwave to really have time to develop down S. One good thing there is maybe that shortwave isn’t being sampled perfectly yet since it’s farther out in time. I’ve been riding the Ai all winter, it’s been lock steady outside those 2-3 runs where it was really OTS .

Painful because we saw what could have been had everything gone right. Maybe the confluence relaxes next model suite. We need a desperate return at 00/6z. Look we could still score a 4-8” event with temps in the upper teens and low 20s, but that’s boring to me especially if someone is getting 1-2’ and it’s not me haha .

Look at all the models pretty much converging on what it’s been advertising… outside the two runs that were really out to sea it’s been lock steady. This thing is the future. It’s crushed every event. Yeah its resolution isn’t great so temps and precip aren’t its go to feature, but yea this thing is great. .

Mid Atlantic region is in a good spot because they’re far enough S to get some snow from the overrunning and then whatever the coastal produces. Could be a good event to chase if 20” is in the realm .

Yea if and when this fails I’m out .

Where 18z gfs puts the heavy snow honestly matches up pretty well with the EPS. I hate to say it, but brace yourselves for the 18z euro to come even farther SE. I said yesterday that as long as EPS held until 18z today I’d be all in. Of course it went SE in a big way at 12z. We almost made it lol. Meh, not interested in a scraper. Sorry to sound like the weenie that I am, but been around a while I just have that feeling. I think 18z euro is going to be a cliff jump run for the forums outside Mid Atlantic. Hope I’m wrong .

EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh .

I panicked I thought it was going to go wide right, a good bit farther E vs 6z because it was faster with shortwave .

This hobby sucks .

Southern vort stronger vs 6z, woof woof .