Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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Nice hit on the euro Ai for around the 20th @mitchnick .
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This could obv change, but I see a cutter around the 18th that ushers in another shot of cold air and confluence, and depending on how the shortwaves break apart over the epo ridge determines what comes around the 20th. .
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Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet .
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I’d roll with this look .
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It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me. Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event. .
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6z euro Ai setup going into the 20th time frame It’s a decent setup for an overrunning event, see how it plays out once we get closer. This is the next time frame to watch for anything major as others have mentioned .
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Yeah the next time frame to watch for anything potentially major outside of clipper types imo is 18-23rd. .
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Most winters my blinds are brown for a reason. Jan 18-23 probably the next time frame with potential outside some clipper type snow Sometimes in really good winters though things pop up out of no where in medium/late range, we’ll see .
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Yeah it’s def not shit the blinds, but we may be in a little waiting period. .
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Just a tidbit since I’m bored. Euro Ai is a really good model. Been watching it during all the events so far this winter and it’s really accurate. It seems like the graphics are like smoothed out like the old control, but I’m not exactly sure what goes into it. It’s been pretty steady with Saturday’s event outside minor ticks here and there. It seems all the models trending towards its overall H5 look. I think SE of the cities could be in store for 1-4” event with maybe far SE sections 2-5”. .
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Terrific .
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It’s the NAM, but it looks like it’s phasing in the northern shortwave .
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Check this out, 18z Ukie looks like GFS to a degree, that’s a really good sign . I posted the wrong maps woops
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84 hours that’s a pretty big differences for this range .
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Yep, was hoping lol, 00z going to be really interesting, one side had to cave soon .
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Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite .
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Very early but check out the energy over the ridge, it’s stronger, could mean big things…. We’ll see .
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This is almost under 120 hours we should start to see one model cave soon…. I thought the gfs was weaker with the N lobe so I’m shocked it tucked even more… Interesting storm to track, euro shortly.. .
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Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong .
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It’s more about the pesky N/S lobe that is off the coast of Alaska currently. Goofus had that diving into the trough by 72-84 hours. CMC is partially there, euro not even close. Let’s face reality if it was other way around we’d be feeling a lot better .
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This is the annual gfs fantasy event where the euro has nothing and the euro ends up being right. I expect a full on cave from the gfs on the 18z or 00z run. Maybe a slight step down, it could be that the cmc is closer to reality. EPS suck so something is fishy with handling of the N/S .
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My map is 75 hours out, one of the models is going to be atrociously wrong. Almost always is the GFS. Just like it’s 6z run it’s more prone to making large scale changes, it could easily cave at 18z, we’ll see what happens .
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It’s frustrating to know that just the small difference with the N stream goes from a nothing event or a bomb .
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This run probably won’t get it done… you can see the differences better here with the N stream .
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Very early but the N lobe looks stronger and better positioned… .
