IntenseBlizzard2014

Depends on the plume type. If it's water vapor, we might have additional warming. If it's SO2, then cooling. However, the plume type might not mean much if the eruption is weak. Also, the effects aren't definitive either.

One thing that caught my attention was that the 06Z NAM had a closed-off H5 Low at Delaware's Latitude. That's probably why the snowfall pushed further inland this time.

I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what I've seen from the UKMET was quite an eye-opener.

The 00Z GEFS looks like puke. Although, based on the latest shifts, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS OP/GEFS made large adjustments by 06Z.

The 06Z GFS really wanted to rush the storm. The H5 vort closed off over NJ while remaining Positive tilted. This would benefit the coast quite a bit, but alas the amount of snowfall would be cut down further inland (Southern NY and NE PA) vs 00Z. Seems like EPA will get the goods on this run.

It's actually 3.5 days away.

Maybe this our chance to take a well-deserved break?

The QBO value is nearing the -5 to +5 range. The QBO value as of November 2019 is +5.07. Let's see if the QBO can go a little lower for December.

Interesting comparison. The most recent CANSIPS is sniffing this out. July 2019 August 2019

You win.

That -PNA may not last for long when the convection pushes past the Dateline.

December 25th, 2018. Seems unusual, yet very possible. The MJO will go for a stronger burst through Phase 7/8/1 through December 20th. Which will make it very favorable for colder and stormier weather a few days later.

This is understandable. If we get a typical Central Based/-QBO/-PDO. Then this forecast can verify quite easily.

Yes please. This will be very welcomed.

Thanks to the stubborn Upper Level Ridge NW of Hawaii, there won't be any canes nearing Central/Southern Cali. It looks like Odile is going to be the closest to the heart of the drought areas without actually putting any meaningful dent into the drought.