Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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@mempho, how hot has it been in your area?
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TRI is at 92 which I think officially breaks the all-time record high for October. Looking forward to this heat ridge being gone. Ridges fine. Mega ridges - no. Math/Met living large with .24" of rain! J/K
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95 at 11:56AM... Yikes!!!!
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TRI did not set a record high yesterday as far as I know as some cloud cover moved in later in the afternoon and suppressed temps just enough so as they did not meet record levels. That said, September of 2019 featured eight record highs during two blistering hot, non-consecutive weeks. 1954 is almost a carbon copy with eight as well and with similar spacing between the record heat. So, 16 of the record highs for September are held by two years which are 65 years apart. As hot as it was during September 2019 only one of the nine 1954 record highs was broken. September 1954 was truly a spectacular month for heat as it also holds the all-time September record of 100 which was not approached during 2019. Looks like the first four days of October have chances for records. The all-time record high for the month is 91. Pretty rare air to be able to break one of those, but that is exactly what is on the table. 1954 again holds several record highs in October. Will be interesting see what happens during our break from the extremes which begins on Friday and pushes well into next week. There is a chance that highs mid-week(of next week) may well be 20 degrees cooler than the same day of the previous week. Pretty interesting to see what happened during November 1954 as well. Don't think we go to that extreme, but we will see. Still sitting at about .1" of rain during the past 33 days.
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No idea. Matches the AMO cycle nearly perfectly though. Still have a few years to go before it flips "I think." Interestingly the month of March has had several BN months during the past several years, including this one at TRI. Seems like September is now more of a continuation of summer and that March is more of an extension of February - D'Aleo had a discussion about that last weekI think. Fairly interesting. Plus there is cold in NA...it is just not here. 40" of snow in western Montana over the weekend. I will say that weekend snowstorms are an interesting phenomenon as well...so many occur on the weekend. I am using the observation thread to document wx events up here as well. MRX data is such a mess, I can barely use it - especially when it comes to data about historic snow totals. Hopefully, we can all refer back to threads like these and see what the weather actually was...Even though John is probably 100 miles away as a crow flies from my house, I still like his personal records as I trust those more. It will be interesting to see what happens when this pattern flips....even if the balancing of the temperature scale is tilted slightly towards warmer, the flip of this pattern could be fairly chilly in terms of balancing things out.
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Yeah, weird heat wave for sure. This is likely a once in 100 year event. Very rare. I think the colder temps near South America are really influencing the pattern here. When those showed up, it got exceptionally hot. I also think that kink in the jet stream over the NW(seems perpetual) is forcing a SE ridge that wouldn't otherwise be there in that extreme. That said, I do think the same drivers that are forcing extreme heat(-NAO right now included) will bring a different result as the seasons change. The weak Nino looks like a very Modoki look to me. What is weird is that kink in the jet stream started showing up on models, especially the Euro, a couple of years before it actually verified. It kept showing a trough popping up under an Alaskan ridge. So, I think what many thought was a bias by the Euro was a pattern that was very close to that kink. Now, we have it. Thankfully the changing wavelengths of fall should at least jostle the current pattern. The SOI really tanked during August and September and the daily contribution is near neutral today. Tons of conflicting signals and have been for about a year. It is almost like the climate has had a base Nina state since the last super Nino. Anyway, definitely agree that anomalous wx has been afoot since last December. My gut tells me this long lasting pattern will eventually break beginning next weekend and take about 3-4 weeks to break it down. But I could be easily wrong. Many wx models keep trying to break the pattern down, but it doesn't verify....likely just too quick.
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TRI set its eighth record high for September today it appears - always have to wait a couple of days for it to be officially in the books. Tomorrow the high is forecast to be 90 so that would be a ninth if it verifies. What is even more interesting is that TRI's all time record high for October is 91. Looks like that has a very real chance of falling next week. Anytime an all-time record falls that is a fairly big deal. Looks like the first three days of October will be records. That would make for seven record highs in a row to fall. To me that probably makes this particular air mass a rival of 1954. I would be surprise if that is the last record high. Looks like some wild swings are on the way if the GFS and Euro operational are correct. I do think the weeks-on-end of record high temps are likely done. However, I do think that 2-3 spells of extreme heat are possible in front of some fairly strong cold fronts.
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White font....switch it to black font and you can see your post. That doesn't fix the 100,000s of posts that are now white. I am assuming this will be fixed.
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Record high #6 in the books for September with three more likely after today. TRI hit 90 which ties the old record set during 2017. The normal high is 76. If the NWS forecast verifies, we will break the record on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Sunday's record is an elusive 1954 record. If the 1954 record falls and the next three days are records, 2019 will be the undisputed, record-high record holder for the month of September(if my calculations are correct). If nature comes back and balances the checkbook so to speak...gonna hurt.
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...Just in time for the beginning of four months of yet another record -NAO.
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Picked up a nice shower that lasted about ten minutes. Unfortunately, caught the edge of yet another passing storm. Closes wx station has 0.05", but I think we may have been north of 0.1". (Update: Radarscope has me at .05"...pretty bad when .05" seems like a lot!) Saves me having to water the garden for a night! Still not near enough to hold back growing drought conditions, but we will certainly take it. Mid-town and the east side received much less if that is possible.
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Received another passing shower. My raised beds aren't even damp from the rain. LOL. I can still see where I watered them from yesterday. Brutal weather pattern for gardeners.
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The WeatherUnderground station on my end of town, which is pretty accurate, still has 0.00" of rain for September. We did have some light showers earlier this week, but the air was so dry that the ground was dry within less than five minutes. I am guessing we might have had 0.02-0.03" of rain if that. So in my book, we are now 29 days straight without appreciable rainfall. Four weeks with barely a drop. There is a small shower heading this way, but is quickly dissipating. Let's see if we can get some sprinkles from it.
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New buzz word for weather this fall and winter...get ready to be inundated with the IOD.
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Yeah, felt great here this morning. Low to mid 50s if I remember correctly. Truly, in comparison this is what the worst of summer is out West above 5,000'. Cool mornings and warm days with low humidity all summer long.
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Ugh. Trust me, Tennessee basketball fans know all to well about the uneven hand of the NCAA and the SEC commish. We feel your pain. Have to fight them for sure. We didn't and we should have. And trust me, basketball season can't get here fast enough!!!! LOL.
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Not even gonna put in on the pattern discussion thread after the last head fake. The Euro Weeklies have broken slightly with continuity IMHO this evening....much different 500 setup after mid-October. The control brought repetitive shots of cooler air into the East from that time to early Nov. Will waiter for another run before really dissecting it after last time.
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Have received a couple of light showers here. Maybe .01 or .02....slightly more than a trace. Basically a dry frontal passage, but feels nice out there!
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If any of you all wanted to know what summers out West feel like(on the hottest days), the past few days are super similar. Low humidity, cool mornings, and tolerable when cloudy. John, glad you are getting some rain. You all have really dodged the worst of this during this summer/fall. I am on my 26th day straight with no rain IMBY. Send it this way.
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And the EPS control basically tries to pull off the same deal. No way I think it verifies, but that is crazy to see tropical systems trying to phase into a massive cold front heading eastward on two models today. It has happened before....but I just don't see this pattern breaking down like that. Seems way too stubborn. EPS mean will have none of it. Would be interesting to see how the 1954 heat run finally broke since its November was so cold - measurable snow in some parts of the forum area that month. If anything remotely similar happened to those runs today...I would laugh about it for years to come. Anyway, that is is in Lala land and rightly so. DT's video in the pattern discussion thread does discuss a potential cold shot around October 15th thanks to the MJO. I don't think it has staying power, but it would provide a welcome shot of seasonal to cooler air.
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What the 12z GFS just did was banter worthy. Give that d10+ a look. We can at least dream right! Even the lake effect snow machine fires up!
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I have looked only briefly this morning, but it looks like really warm temps on tap for this weekend and into next week. I think it is vey realistic that TRI could actually break the records for this Friday through Monday(one week...not today). Again, it is crazy how similar this is to 1954...but we have yet to break one of those records. Might have a chance in October to break one from that year. What is even wilder, is November of 1954 was really cold. Don't look at winter of 54-55 though...started cool and then the pattern returned. I think in this case, once the patterns leaves...it is gone. It has been a remarkably consistent pattern for almost ten months. Even though it has been warm here, the Mountain West has been BN to sometimes well BN. BTW, I don't think we broke the record yesterday at TRI last I think the high was 88. I think we have about 2-3 more weeks of this...then the transitional wavelengths of the fall season will likely shake-up the pattern - I hope!
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Kind of an interesting "opportunity." If TRI can hit the record high today of 90, next weekend's temps are well within reach on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as those record high temps(if I am remember correctly) are in the 89-90 range....that means five more record high temps could fall. That would leave 2019 will a full 1/3(ten of the thirty record high temps in one calendar year) of TRI's record high temps! I kinda think that might be tough as a single, cloudy day could derail that...but still this is some rare air. Something to keep an eye on...even without those other records, five is incredibly impressive. If we hit the forecast high today and next weekend, this might be a once in 50 year heat event for the month of September. Interestingly in 1954, there are five more record highs in October. It is fairly amazing how closely we are mirroring that year so far. Looks like the last blast of incredible heat will be in early October(and later this week as well)...then climo begins to push temps back fairly rapidly. In other words, we may see more records but just not of the extreme summer heat variety.
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A fifth record high for September in now in the books at TRI hit a whopping 92 on September 16th. For some of you further south that might not sound too bad...up here that is pretty much as out of bounds as one get as evidenced by the record. Looks like there may be more chances for records to fall next weekend and early into the next week. Oddly, none of the 1954 record highs have fallen....just picking low hanging fruit right now by setting records on the other days. LOL....yeah, even the low hanging fruit is still hot!
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Sitting at 25 days straight with no rainfall. On the other side of town this week, there was a brief shower that wet the streets(barely)...nothing here.
